Friday, September 05, 2014 3:52:20 PM
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Making the numbers! Very bad!!
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Brazil's Dichotomy: Growth Lower, Stocks Higher
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3:37p ET September 5, 2014 (Dow Jones)
By Dimitra DeFotis
Brazil slipped into recession in the latest quarter, yet its market keeps moving higher.
Bloomberg's chart of the day Thursday is a big X marking the dichotomy between Brazil's benchmark Ibovespa Index performance and projections for 2015 growth. The index is up 35% from its March 14 low in real, and has rallied 42% in dollars. The big contributors: Petroleo Brasileiro ( PBR) -- whose ADRs are up a whopping 93% from the March low -- and Itau Unibanco Holding ( ITUB), up nearly 62%.
This week, the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF ( EWZ) rose nearly 1.5% for the week. Brazil airline GOL Linhas Aereas Inteligentes ( GOL), which got an upgrade, rallied nearly 13% this week. That compares to the 1.24% rise in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ( EEM) for the week.
Stocks have ben rallying on the possibility that if Pres. Dilma Rousseff is unseated, possibly by Marina Silva is a runoff election, reforms and changes could really put a fire under the economy. The latest polls indicate the outcome of the president election, just four weeks away, could be a toss-up.
This week, WSJ explained the latest poll results thusly:
Ms. Rousseff, of the Workers' Party, would get 37% of the vote; Ms. Silva would get 33%; and Brazilian Social Democracy Party candidate Aécio Neves would get 15% in the first round of voting on Oct. 5 ... That result would require a runoff election on Oct. 26, because no candidate would get more than half of the valid votes in the first round, with Ms. Silva defeating Ms. Rousseff 46% to 39% in the second round, according to Ibope.
On Thursday, the Brazilian Central Bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 11%, in line with the consensus. The rate probably won't change much in the near future, as the need to attack stubborn inflation in Brazil outweighs lower rates that would spur economic growth, the Wall Street
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