Thanks for this excellent post, which may have been overlooked with all the quibbling here. I am pasting in the entire article below, and would like to draw everyone's attention to the final paragraph which I have highlighted. Spoiler alert: my interpretation of the article's conclusion is that Japan is indeed a major catalytic event that could happen in the very near future).
CML Drug Revenue in Japan to Grow, Despite Global Decline. Bucking a global trend of falling revenues, weak penetration of generic drugs and an increasing patient population will ensure steady growth of Japan's Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML) market over the next decade.
Japan's branded CML therapeutics market will increase from a value of $489m in 2012 to reach $565m in 2022, climbing at a modest Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.5% over the 10 year period.
This increase in revenue makes the Japanese market unique among the seven major markets covered in the report. The CML markets in the US, the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain are all expected to decline by 2022 due to significant generic erosion of key CML drugs.
The upcoming patent expiries of Novartis' Gleevec and Bristol-Myers Squibb's Sprycel will significantly disturb the global sales of CML therapeutics over the next decade. Revenue for Gleevec, which accounted for roughly half of the worldwide CML market value in 2012, is expected to plummet from $1.57 billion in 2012 to $253m in 2022, while Sprycel sales are forecast to drop from $765m to $214m during the same period.
However, the penetration of oncology generics in Japan is relatively low compared with the other major markets. Correspondingly, while sales of these blockbuster products are anticipated to fall in Japan following introduction of generic alternatives, the effect will be far less substantial.
An increasing number of prevalent cases of CML coupled with the launch of Pfizer's Bosulif and Ariad's Iclusig over the forecast period will more than compensate for the generic erosion of Gleevec and Sprycel sales in Japan. As a result, Japan is set to increase its share of the combined CML therapeutics market for the seven major markets, expanding from 16% to 27% in just ten years.
