Monitise PLC (MONIF)

[realfast95]

Kass posting on the london chat board

http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=MONI

If you read my analysis yesterday on Monitise - my rationale for selling out yesterday couldn't have been more clear.
MONIF's management guided down twice and the shares fell dramatically.
The collaboration with IBM moved the stock by more than 25% in three days.
I had an outsized position and sold back down to a core position
I have consistently said as Monitise has risen that MONI is an investment not a trade - and as I wrote yesterday I still believe this to be the case but the two recent miscues dilutes one's confidence
I do believe the co has the right alliances with IBM V and MC.- but it now has to perform.
And what I did it consistent with an opportunistic move following the IBM deal which
caused something of a temporary short squeeze. Since the high of $0.87 on Thursday the shares are down ten percent - so tactically I have appeared to be correct in my strategy.
No one can be sure if the company can execute for certain - nor do we yet know the specific ramifications of sub growth emanating from the IBM announcement. I remain hopeful but less confident than nine months ago as I have clearly written.
There are multiple reasons to be skeptical and sub growth additions wont be known until 2015 - so the stock will likely tread water between $0.70 and $1.00 over balance of this year.
Monitise is a show me stock now.
And with a $1.5 billion US market cap - Monitise remains a speculative investment.
When the facts change, my anslysis and views change.
Though not meaning to be harsh on Monitise's management... perhaps this dictum applies: "Fool me once shame on you.
Fool me twice shame on me."
If the company executes well this may still be a five bagger but the onus is on the company.
Dougie Kass/Seabreeze Partners