Thursday, August 21, 2014 11:14:31 PM
Summary
This article presents an outrageously optimistic scenario for Universal Display.
The OLED market can grow 36X compared to 2013 (unlikely, but possible!).
If this happens, Universal Display's stock price will be 20 times higher than today.
Yes, this is a wild forecast for 2018. But it's a possible one.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2308775-universal-display-20x-jackpot-in-2018
UDC share value in 2018
As we said, UDC will have a profit of $2.1 billion in 2018. There are 46.5 million shares outstanding as of the end of 2013, so this means an EPS of $45. The company has already generated a huge cash pile of $2 billion by 2018 (even after several acquisitions), or $40 per share. Assuming a P/E of 15, UDC's share price is $40 plus $45 x 15, or $715. That is over 20 times higher than the stock price today.
Note about P/E: UDC's current P/E ratio is about 18. If this scenario plays out, it means growth rate has been phenomenal, and the P/E ratio should go up. On the other hand, by 2018 the P/E may decline due to patent expiration, concerns over further growth and market saturation. So I used a P/E of 15 in my calculations.
If you're a UDC long, this is my highest scenario. I'll say this one last time - I'm sure that my estimates are too high, don't take this forecast seriously. But then again, why not be optimistic for a change? Didn't I say this is going to be fun?
Oh, and one final request - please do not quote this article in 2018 as it might be embarrassing for me... unless of course, I was spot on.
Recent OLED News
- Universal Display Corporation Establishes the Sherwin I. Seligsohn Innovation Award in Organic Electronics • Business Wire • 09/18/2024 10:30:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/13/2024 08:00:03 PM
- Universal Display Corporation Named to Fast Company’s Best Workplaces for Innovators List in Science & Technology • Business Wire • 09/11/2024 08:15:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/10/2024 08:00:03 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/03/2024 08:00:06 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/30/2024 08:00:04 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/29/2024 09:43:48 PM
- Universal Display Corporation Delivers Keynote Address and Announces Recipients of the 2024 UDC Innovative Research and Pioneering Technology Awards at IMID Korea • Business Wire • 08/28/2024 08:30:00 PM
- Universal Display Corporation Announces Participation at Upcoming Conferences • Business Wire • 08/08/2024 08:15:00 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/01/2024 08:10:30 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/01/2024 08:08:09 PM
- Universal Display Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend of $0.40 per Share • Business Wire • 08/01/2024 08:06:00 PM
- Universal Display Corporation Announces Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results • Business Wire • 08/01/2024 08:05:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/19/2024 08:00:03 PM
- Universal Display Corporation Announces Second Quarter 2024 Conference Call • Business Wire • 07/15/2024 08:15:00 PM
- Universal Display Corporation Holds Virtual 2024 Annual Meeting of Shareholders • Business Wire • 06/20/2024 08:15:00 PM
- Universal Display Corporation to Commemorate 30th Anniversary by Ringing Nasdaq Closing Bell • Business Wire • 06/17/2024 12:30:00 PM
- Universal Display Corporation to Hold Virtual 2024 Annual Meeting of Shareholders • Business Wire • 06/06/2024 08:15:00 PM
- Universal Display Corporation Announces Participation at Upcoming Conferences • Business Wire • 05/21/2024 08:15:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/15/2024 08:00:08 PM
- Universal Display Corporation to Exhibit and Present at SID Display Week 2024 • Business Wire • 05/09/2024 08:15:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/09/2024 08:00:17 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/09/2024 08:00:12 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/08/2024 06:28:09 PM
- Form 144 - Report of proposed sale of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/07/2024 06:25:20 PM
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