iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)

[risk on]

Just what we need, another r.o. Prediction....

Putin knows the rebels are toast, he knows how that will make him look to the Russian populous , like a loser, and that is unacceptable in his mind. So, Next Tuesday Putin will offer Poreshenko a one way , heavy handed deal, that he knows will be refused. That refusal could be all the more justification Putin needs to go ahead and directly push back on Ukranian forces. He didn't put 45,000. Troops w munitions on the border to silly be spectators, they are there to do one thing. The sanctions are not really a deterrent for Putin, especially in the face of how a defeat in Ukriane will make him look in Russia, weak. Besides, if there are more sanctions as a result of direct invasion, Putin can jus use that as more propaganda to show how " the west is out to destroy Russia", and the sanctions may serve to bolster Putins support among the Russian people.

Bottom line: the rebels failing means invasion is more likely.