Blue, wandering of the reservation a bit:
"Why indeed did GM, BP, PwC and all the others not renew with Wave?"
GM, e.g., bought in 2009, doubled down in 2010, and prepaid through 2014.
Again, through 2014. For them to not renew one needs to get into the not renewal period. It may happen, but generally one applies future tense to the future, past tense to the past and so on. you have tossed the generally accepted vectoral nature of time into the blender on this.
With the others it is less transparent. We know e.g. that BASF prepaid bought in 2011 and prepaid through 2012. BASF maintenance ran on the order of 175k/qtr, and to date Wave has never announced in a PR a maintenance renewal that I am aware of and the amount of money is inadequate expect accelerated reporting (8-k).
But they do speak towards revenue in their quarterly reports, and there it is clear that they have received large customer maintenance renewals(s). Moreover, Wave recognizes SMB (<5000 seat) transactions as invoiced and recognizes revenue from larger as a liability (deferred revenue) recognized ratably over the service period.
For those inclined to bean counting the intersection of SEC filings containing statements of billings, revenue, and deferred revenue support the notion that there is ongoing maintenance revenue (particularly when they state in an SEC filing, 'revenue increased because of a large maintenance renewal'.
The degree with which only some or all continue to renew maintenance deals is unclear, but IMO much of their business has been renewal business (not really a good thing at this point).
Your points are likely stronger if they are not bolstered with assertions that are rather measurably false.
My limited efforts in this area indicate to me there is some business lost in this area, but that to date it is mostly retained business. 2015 and GM would presumably be important. It appears GM enjoyed a significant discount on maintenance (prepaying 3 years will likely do that) but in any event renewal would reasonably be expected to be around $1-2m.
As far as most of what you said regarding SKS, his statements, habits, etc .... we agree, carry on.
The above content is my opinion.
