Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[CallMeCrazy]

if K proves efficacious in clinical trials it may be able to assist in the treatment of about half of all new cancer cases...

The profoundness of this statement, while known to most posters on this board, seems to get lost in all the short-term chatter.

According to ASCO, the number of new cancer cases in the U.S. is expected to increase 45% by 2030, from 1.6M cases to 2.3M cases annually. If K proves to have the broad effectiveness its creator thinks it has, then this suggest that between now and 2030 K could address a market of between 800K and 1.15M every year.

According to oncologist Dr. Jeffery Ward, today, the average cancer drug cost $10K per month. He further added that if we don't control cost in 20 years the average cost of a cancer drug will be $100K per month (K will be off patent by then and a generic K should have a cost lowering effect).

Keep in mind that this is just K in the U.S. According to the WHO, worldwide between 2012 and 2030 new cancer cases will grow from 14M to 21.6M annually, pushing K's worldwide revenues off the chart.

After K proves itself, a question for long-term holders is: When Do I sell? Most of us have rather large positions and will undoubtedly sell some as CTIX's S/P rises, but when should we liquidate the whole position? I think Warren Buffett provides the best advice I've read on this subject:

"...when we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever."