Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM)

[123tom]

Newest release from Sprott, only 3 weeks ago, (since July 14,2014) SGDM is the Sprott gold miner ETF.

So new to market that the chart doesnt even produce a 20 moving average ,or bollinger band,yet. There's just not much to look at technically yet.

Later ,I will try to post the more complete profile . What interests me most at the moment is the listing of the individual miners ( Holdings)
which shows the personality and ingredients that comprise what the analytic decision makers at Sprott ,and Zacks, think make for their best team of miners to play with.

Most of the holdings should be familiar to those who follow the miner sector. This ETF is heavily weighted by Franco-Nevada,Randgold Resources, and Goldcorp at the top, and these 3 comprise almost half the whole weighting.

Its an interesting list of holdings. How well the collection will perform together versus separate miners individually , will be interesting to watch.

My first impression upon seeing such a heavy weighting placed on FNV,GOLD and GG,essentially means that owning this ETF is like owning those 3 miners, plus some frosting provided by the other 22 holdings, like sprinkles of jimmies on the Franco Nevada cake.

One could right away make an arguement, ....why not just buy Franco Nevada,Goldcorp, and Randgold.... and more importantly....buy them At the best bargain price dip in their chart patterns,which means....a year ago. when FNV was bottoming at the 30 dollar area. that sort of idea. Would you want to buy FNV now while it sits at a topping zone,almost a double from last year's low. I would not.
Goldcorp bottomed around 20...last December , the low for 2013. Why buy GG now , at 28 , while it sits in a topping resistance zone, with big resistance overhead at 30-32 ? I would not.
and the story is the same with Randgold, it bottomed last year, in June and then in late december /early January around 60, after falling in a huge downwave from a peak at 125, back in fall 2012. This 2014 rally back to 90 area now represents a 50% bounce, the Fibonacci retracement zone that could easily spell resistance and a down wave to follow.
why buy Randgold here? I would not.

and most other miners have made a rally wave in early 2014, then a moderate pullback from March to June, and now another effort to rally some more, and in my view this current rally is looking tired, and waiting to reverse back down.

So is now, or these last 3 weeks the right time to jump into this new Miner ETF ? or might we see a better pullback in coming weeks ,to get in at a better bargain.

If I just look at the chart of Franco Nevada, which has just made a double this year from 30 to 60....far surpassing the performance of most miners, I could never bring myself to buy it now at such a lofty top zone. A normal pullback now ,would /should take FNV back to test the 45 area where the key ma and bollinger bottom band sits.

IF Goldcorp,Randgold and FNV decide to make that pullback ,what will that do to the price of Sprott's new ETF? I imagine we would see a noteworthy pullback.

For my money, I anticipate a pullback in miners, the rest of this year. but good guessing or not, the technical trader has to consider waiting now for the pullback after the rally we've had so far this year.

When I look at the chart of Franco Nevada, I think two things.... 1)...."I Knew I shoulda bought at 30,damit"
and 2) I sure aint buying it now at 60
I might think about it at 45.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=FNV&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p35571401675&r=1407667305973

heres GDX chart to compare it with Franco Nevada. Look how different they are !! I'd love to hear anyone's explanation why FNV has been such a singular stellar performer ,far beyond the whole mining sector. (dont say its because of their oil holdings...) Watching FNV these recent years, one would get the feeling that FNV "never goes down". Most days when other miners go down, FNV stays up, goes up, always up. performing just like the S+P... its a bit strange to watch. while most all other miners have collapsed since 2011, FNV finally made a big downwave in 2013, but while most miners look like the GDX chart, still wallowing in a low zone, heres Franco Nevada surging all the way back to the top again.

Heres GDX

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p27955349054&r=1407668435609

so will Sprott's SGDM perform like Franco Nevada ? or will it perform more like GDX ?




The new miner ETF from Sprott

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SGDM&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p27005128550&r=1407665016229