tkc, so for the record (and with considerable follow-on babble)
Dell was down 25% (-0.5m), Safend was essentially flat (and = 46% of non-Dell revenue, and profitable if I read it correctly), and "other" (SMB Embassy) was off about 25% and booked the worst non-Dell/non-Safend revs of 1.6m in recent memory.
Safend is doing more to keep the lights on than Safend deal bashing seems to adequately appreciate, IMO.
The path forward is murky, very murky.
So, without further ado Q3:
some additional SMB SED sales, getting non-Dell embassy back to Q1 (1.9m), continued Dell erosion (to 0.7m), SFND holding its own (1.4m) = total revs 4.0.
Anything better requires VSC sales.
Samsung will not contribute. (i.e <0.1m).
Widepoint will not contribute.(i.e <0.1m).
Micron certainly will not contribute.
Bell-ID certainly will not contribute.
Sandisk may contribute but it would show up buried into the SMB Embassy recovery I mentioned and included above (secure drives to SMB healthcare vertical e.g.).
So, VSC, based on various tidbits, I am going to venture a guess for a large customer that the managed VSC solution is $40 a seat, $20/seat for early adopters.
So, 100k seats is $2m in this model using some synnex content and a thingy in german about early adopter discounts (and some discount pricing shown on synnex). Solms says they are pushing the whole enchilada on folks (why lock the front door and not the back) as far as seat rollouts. Whatever on that, F500s make there own call on these things.
Back to numbers: cash burn appeared to come in at around -2.6m, with 8.5 in the bank ... looks like 3 Qs, even allowing for continued Dell decline. Short term debt was paid off, AP was paid down a good deal.
So where is this going ... it seems fair to say that each $2.5m in VSC or other large deals buys 1 Q of runway until the point where they accumulate to the point where maintenance pays the bills. Given that maintenance appears to be about 20% of license (which is very standard) the simple math is about $13m of deals above current produces a situation where maintenance + ongoing SMB keeps the lights on (against fixed cash costs of something like 7.5m).
So, near term cash flow is solved(extended) by any large new business of 2.5m/q, long term cash flow is solved by a threshold of 12.5m in large new customers as at that point recurring revs in the form of maintenance should carry the day. The runway requires that by Q1 2.5m of these new business closes per quarter before the sum of the customer base generates the necessary cash flow to make this a going concern.
That would be execution, and a successful turnaround, a company running more-or-less cfbe at more or less 30m on each side of the column. That goes for PS5, mcap150, SP3. That is the base upon which one does the visionary thingy, one does not do the visionary thingy on a share printing press in a sea of red ink.
The above content is my opinion.
