The big issue (IMO) here is a lot of lingering doubt about how the management has been moving forward.
Recently - in the last year or so since getting the new CRO and ditching the old one - there has been considerable progress made in getting the H&N Cancer Phase III moved forward,.... but the lingering bad aftertaste from the old CRO spoils the investor's palate.
Cash burn is still relatively high - as one would expect from a company running a relatively huge clinical trial without a deep-pocket partner footing at least part of the bill. The fact that the new CRO is chipping in cost-sharing for the work done on the project in return for a cut of (eventual) profits is a good sign by most ways of looking at it - but the Company still has to continually keep the trial in cash. With no income stream - this raises a real danger for additional dilution for current shareholders.
Add to that - the fact that the Phase III is unlikely to be completely filled prior to late 2015 assuming that the newly added centers add patients at a steadily climbing rate through 2015 (longer if there is a hitch in enrollment), and the need for cash (and further dilution) rises as time goes on.
And although the HPV Wart work (Phase I) will likely progress much faster - it is unlikely to get to a revenue-generating stage for at least a year or two as well.
Basically - most potential investors are looking at CVM and seeing risks short-term to balance out the potential return in the long-term and are sitting on their hands to see what develops.
I've got a moderate sized holding - and while I'm not adding presently - I'm not selling either. Just watching and waiting like everybody else.
“The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.”
- Leo Nikolaevich Tolstoy
