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Re: I Need Help post# 95786

Thursday, 07/31/2014 11:50:32 PM

Thursday, July 31, 2014 11:50:32 PM

Post# of 146202
Sorry to make your head hurt with my nonchalant statement about the current Ebola outbreak. It certainly is a problem for those affected. I was mainly noticing news cycles (why don't we hear about the MERS threat anymore, did the virus go away?), and thinking that of all the things that can kill people, Ebola is pretty low on the list (1200 people this year, out of 7B). 3M people die of malnutrition per year.

Of all the infectious diseases that kill people or cause human misery, Ebola is pretty low on the list. HIV kills 1.5M per year! Hepatitis 1.4M per year!

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/as-ebola-mers-and-hivaids-make-headlines-what-are-the-biggest-risks-to-the-worlds-health-and-what-is-being-done-about-them-9631572.html

Gauging threats is difficult to do, and indeed does depend on where you sit and what is your situation. We always seem to fear the new and unknown. Ebola has been around for a while, and occasionally flares up (like this year), but not too bad. I personally feel for the victims, especially the health care workers hurt trying to take care of others, but don't think it has catastrophic epidemic disease potential. Why do you think "what is coming is not the same as what has been?" What is different with this outbreak?

Speaking of global catastrophes, I read an interesting book about them, Vaclav Smil's Global Catastrophes and Trends, the next 50 years:

http://www.amazon.com/Global-Catastrophes-Trends-Fifty-Years/dp/0262195860

One of my colleagues used to say "We're due for another epidemic." In order to spread quickly, it most likely will be airborne. I don't think Ebola will affect that many people.

This blogger says what I was trying to say much better than I:

http://decipherthescience.blogspot.com/2012/08/ebola-pandemic-virus-fail.html


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