blue, I wasn't intending to say you expected a full turnaround real soon, I was unclear on that.
I am inclined to rely on a hierarchical process.
If the inherited pipeline was empty,
Then there was nothing to sell.
If the sales cycle is X,Y,Z quarters,
Then I expect no sales before X, but expect some sales prior to the end of Z.
Much of this may revolve around T=0, you seem to imply a T=0 sooner than mine.
Given the notion that the products themselves required significant improvement, this influences when I would mark T=0. One could e.g. use Jul22 as T=0, but Solms was pressed on this at the SHM and seemed to allow RSA in Q1 to be a conceptual T=0 in terms of VSC. I can't go and assign a T=0 of e.g. 8 months ago by fiat.
FWIW the new guy did say the pipeline was effectively empty, did say the products were flawed, and did project sales evidence for turnaround into Q3/4 of 2014. With that I am only left for looking for evidence as to if that will be possible (things like launches, press, partnerships etc).
By my process not only do i not expect the sales I think you are referring to, they are not even permissible if one follows the framework.
it seems you broadly accept that the pipeline was b.s., and broadly accept the notion of sales cycles, but it seems to me that your are essentially saying the pipeline was empty, but not completely empty, the products were bad, but not completely bad ... hence somewhere in all of this there should be sales (some combination of dry leaves and bad products = at least some sales), and my process says there simply can't be.
Regarding no small sales, VSC is not Wave's only product and I expect there have been a significant number of small sales in Q2, that is I do not expect the non-dell licensing line to be $0.00, but I guess we'll see soon enough.
One of the difficulties I expect (for Wave) is it likely became important to NOT sell things, if VSCv1 is really pretty cumbersome, one is better off delaying until one can get a more attractive product into the customers hands, one more likely to establish a favorable rep and lead more likely to follow on sales.
So, I expect the preponderance of Wave's sales has been SFND DLP (it was a big chunk of last Q) and presumably some ongoing SED related revenue. but not zero.
Wave is about 16% of the way through their self-defined performance measurement window.
The above content is my opinion.
