With '113, I'm not so concerned about toxicity. Sadly, if there are any emerging AE's, those patients won't live long enough to worry about them more than the cancer returning. We've got quite a bit of data on that so far. I think '113 is a far safer drug than its competitors, it's BIC, and has nothing near the safety concerns of Ponatinib. But it does has 5 competitors in a limited population. If they stay on schedule, revs occur in late 2016. They should be able to pull that forward though, and we may see an early-mid 2016 revenue start.
What concerns me more is the other IND potential for Iclusig. So much arm waving here, no real evidence that Ariad thinks much of them. Apart from Iclusig being available only to a limited, very sick CML population, it bothers me that Ariad is not aggressively pursuing any other IND except GIST. The dosing trial is not an impediment. What else apart from funding could be the reason? So get funding and get going. But mgmt chose - not. GIST revenues are expected to be much smaller than CML according to HB. He was almost dismissive of them. It makes me think the other INDs are even less promising. If they weren't, why aren't we going after the better prizes instead of GIST? Makes no sense.
The company is only looking at one registration trial - for GIST, and that begins in about a year. No other IND is even close to that schedule. All reg trials for other indications would be further out than that, beginning perhaps no sooner than 2016, once they have IST data in a year. Again, GIST was the one Ariad thought the most promising to trial. We're talking 2.5 years for GIST revenue, so 3.5 years for others. Again, we don't have money for other trials besides '113, dose ranging and one GIST trial, anyway.
So Iclusig revenues at 10X 2015 revenues of say $120mm is $6 pps. Add $2-3 for '113, $9 by mid next year.
We have only two other real movers at this point. Molecule next, and a b/o. A b/o gets us $12-$15.
So anything over $12-15 all hinges on a molecule that is a total unknown. And any bad news, and forget $15.
I still see as the highest probability that Ariad will get b/o after the molecule is announced. We can't raise enough money, fast enough for Iclusig trials, if they are even deserving. All the rest is window dressing. Failing to invest in promising trials either means mgmt don't think they are promising, or they can't raise the money. No matter, the pps suffers accordingly.
So the good news is possibly $9 by next year sometime, more (maybe $12-15) if the molecule next is great, $3-5 more ($20+) if we get bought out, less if we have bad news. Of course we could get all that today if they open the kimono.
Lots has to go right to get to $20.
