EDIT:The volume is only 5 million
EDIT: Forgot to say if volume grows tomorrow, I'm off the mark and more down would be likely.
It's not an absolute number I look for, but a relative change from recent behavior. See my earlier post where we were cupping in the 1MM-2MM range and now we almost double yesterday's ~2.7MM and yesterday's 10-day average volume of ~2.6MM.
On the right side of a volume "cupping" pattern this big of a change seems a signal to me.
Doesn't mean down is completely over, but suggests that we may be either at or very near the end.
Panicked sellers or stop-loss triggers may have exhausted most shares available at this price level. Won't know for a day or two, but I expect the rate of price descent to at least slow in conjunction with a reduction in volume to start to appear if this is near the end of the down leg.
If shorters are lurking to do covering buys at a profit level very attractive to where they shorted at, might see buy percentage come up along with a small rise in price.
In this case a simple "reversion to the mean", maybe ~1.40 depending on what you use as top and bottom of the leg, would be a reasonable first estimate of any leg up top. You could use Fibonacci retrace percentages if you prefer, SMAs, ...
I expect tomorrow will go to $1.25, overshooting the $1.28 I liked, as late sellers come in, and we could see some firming up begin.
All SWAGs, in partial ignorance and MHO, of course,
Bill
AI
