I can address that with a GREAT analogy.
"sites 1,2 so far turned up a rusty bucket of bolts "
Let me change industries for this illustration.
Oil drillers drill wells where they think oil is. They do scans, much like we do, they see what they think is a good potential site, and they then get mineral rights (Secure the site as theirs) get permits and drill. Sometimes, even with the information they have, they hit a dry well. It happens more often than you would think. Was that a waste? Nope. It was a shot, and it didn't work. But - if they come across a site where the mineral rights were not available for a long time and oil is SEEPING out of the ground, and they start to work on the permit (rights) for THAT area? That would be a UNIQUE situation. that is not the norm for a drilling company. They would have a MUCH better than average chance of striking oil. MUCH better. It would be a RARE thing though to come across that situation. they would be salivating to get the permit, with the high expectation that since the oil is seeping up from the ground that odds are ... shall we say HIGH, that oil is there. If they were about to announce that permit (rights) was approved, then the excitement would be rampant. People who knew the ground was seeping would be excited. THAT is what we have here. not a normal site (Of which drillers drill HUNDREDS sometimes, and strike some oil on some, hit dry on others and truly hit oil on some.) but an RARE extraordinary site with much better potential. That is Site #3. I've told the board before. I've been following this industry for years, and used to own a company that did (treasure hunting) on land. Yet I did NOT own ANY shares of SFRX while they were excited about site #1 OR site #2. If they found something, I'd be like those waiting for it now. Wait for the positive news, jump in early, and if you buy at 4 cents on the way up to 20 cents, you still did pretty good. Not as good as buying at 2 cents, but the risk was lower too. yes, I understand those statements made in prior posts about buying AFTER the permit is issued. I bought NO shares even after the permits for #1 and #2 were issued because I was waiting for treasure to be found FIRST. It was just a few months ago, when I agreed in MY mind that they ARE sitting on a site that is figuratively seeping treasure that I bought my first shares of THIS company. backwards, as I think the treasure has been shown before the permit is shown, and normally it is the permit first and then the hoped for treasure. SO, with one ingredient, the treasure in this case, assured in MY mind, and the other in my mind truly coming, it is the FIRST time they had BOTH ingredients and I felt comfortable enough to buy. My opinion.
I might be a chaser TOO, adding more shares on the way up, as the risk WILL be lower AFTER the permit is issued. But my point here is that this site is seeping with artifacts already found and thus is determined to have a MUCH higher probability of treasure than a normal site. So I don't compare the permit and digging of site #3 with sites #1 and #2. Or sites #4, #5 and #6, wherever they may be and based on good hope that treasure lay there too. this site is UNIQUE, with MORE than "just" hope that treasure is there. So analyze it like it is. An extraordinary site with seepage already showing that there is something there. And that's why the permit is more important this time around than on other sites. The potential here is a "probability" of treasure, not a "possibility". Big difference.
Make sense? smile
AI
