Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA)

[linhdtu]

Personally I have benefited greatly by jumping in enta with you early. I have made back all my loss from amrn with enta and I lost a lot from amrn.Thank you Dew.

Overall I don't have any major objection to your enta model, just little adjustments here and there plus my painful past experience in speculating in biotechs.

For ex, I would adjust down your 38% mkt share to account for future competition as long as we are talking long term here since your 80 TG is obviously at least 2 yrs out from today or even more.

Then I would lower your 8X multiple for the royalty stream just to be conservative.

Again, these are minor adjustments. No major quibbles within the logic of the model itself.

My experience tells me that if by the time it becomes clear to the "mkt" (lol) that 80 is a clear cut enough value for enanta, someone else would already have stepped in to take it out.

The way I deal with this future uncertainty is that I set myself up to sell a certain % at predetermined levels. I will definitely miss out on maximizing my profit if indeed enta or any biotech eventually reach 80, but it is a price I am more than willing to pay for peace of mind. It greatly enhances my quality of life. lol.