AeroVironment fits the profile of a successful drone company, and could dominate in certain areas in the market in the future. One area that is extremely profitable in the military drone market are target drones, these are either small target drones used for shooting practice or for evaluating radar and anti aircraft defense systems, and most often are used once only! Or in some cases it may involve the conversion of decommissioned manned aircraft, such as old F15 or F16 into remotely controlled drones.
Though AeroVironment is not currently, actively involved in target systems, it certainly has the infrastructure and know-how to do so. Target drones are the lesser known part of the UAS industry, they are usually only used ones, since they are bound to be destroyed by the missile being tested.. or they can be used as decoys to fool enemy anti aircraft defense. But since anti aircraft defense systems are sold globally, and are being evaluated all the time against new threats and vulnerabilities, the one thing that these tests need and consume a lot of, is target drones, which are quite expensive and very profitable to the right manufacturer. To put things in perspective, a single Patriot missile can cost anywhere between $1mil and $6mil, the single target drone to be destroyed in the firing test can cost anywhere from several hundred thousands to almost the cost of a Patriot.
And technology can only be restricted by the imagination of the designers... the slightest extra little feature in the target drone can make it 3 – 4 times more expensive than the competition, and yet it can still win the trust and the contract of the client, remember we are talking about security and testing military defense systems where cost is alwways second to results.
AeroVironment in my opinion, will undoubtedly get involved in this overlooked, but seriously profitable target drone market in the future and may well defeat other rival players. That is something every investor should bear in mind. On the domestic civilian market, it is broadly expected that small newly formed companies such as Drone Aviation will be the dominant players because of their products being fully compliant with FAA regulation, which is the only way they can be sold and legally deployed by clients.
