Oncolytics Biotech Inc. (ONCY)

[malibuman]

Reolysin works. Too bad management doesn't as well.....

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/


Valuation
Following the additional SCCHN data, we have revised our financial model by delaying the SCCHN product launch from 2017 to 2018, which had been Oncolytics’s lead indication. This reduces our risk-adjusted valuation slightly from C$457m to C$442m. We anticipate revising our financial model further when Oncolytics announces the next pivotal Phase III study after the seven randomised studies have delivered results later in 2014. Our rNPV compares to a current EV of C$108m, based on a market cap of C$128m and end-Q1 net cash of C$20m. This valuation model is based on what we believe to be prudent assumptions of probability of success, launch date, pricing and market penetration in each indication. The probabilities of success in the different indications are in line with industry norms. No upfront or milestone payments from a licensing partner have been assumed in our model. For simplicity, our valuation model assumes a Reolysin price of C$20,000 per course of treatment across all the indications considered; however, higher pricing may be possible.