Intel Corp (INTC)

[DavidA2]

It's 12 months by pure 14 vs 14, but Intel has an advantage in process vs process so I think its more like 18-24 months.

(I did some personal analysis. The balancing act they have to do is performance, power use, density, and TTM. Deducing all that I believe 18-24 months is correct)

That said, I did not believe their lofty claims of 3.5+ years either. No way I was going to believe that. I do not believe the gap has changed either though.

20nm TSMC: 1H 2015
14nm TSMC: 1H 2016

As for 10nm, if its coming a mere year later in 1H 2017, I bet its not a "full" generation move either. If it was, it would imply 10nm would be 1H 2018.

What about Samsung?

20nm: Rumored iPhone 6 SoC is Q3 2014
14nm: Q3 2015?
10nm: Q3 2017?

Intel's 14nm is Q4 2014. That implies greater than a year from TSMC for process vs process, and less than 1 year vs Samsung. Do not confuse 20>14>10 as literal 20 to 14 to 10, but rather 20 to 17 to 14. You should know better than that.

Remember the gap has never closed or widened because Intel delays came with TSMC delays as well. Also, not disclosed is the potential fact that going from 20 to 14 might take more than a year as well.

The real reason I don't believe gap has ever changed and don't believe either TSMC or Intel is because this: As long as both Intel and competitors are executing well in all levels, they are pulling from similar talent, similar management, and similar tools. Intel is ahead well, because they were ahead so long ago during when process scaling was easier and product TTM means you are stuck with it and such timeframe changes carry on. Also, advancements are successive, not a "jump". Now that its much harder, no one is willing to do process "jumps" like having next REAL node at less than 2 years