The below was emailed to me so I don't have a link:
It was only about a month ago analysis from the Rocky Mountain Institute implied that utilities would soon be obsolete in Hawaii and California. RMI believes solar power will reach grid parity in those states in a few years, and in other states not too long after. Now comes Goldman Sachs with a similar analysis, as reported by Business Insider. Goldman's recently sent out an analysis of Tesla, the California company that makes electric vehicles (EVs). Tesla will soon have a "Gigafactory" to produce batteries for both EV and solar power applications.
Why will solar power come to dominate? First, Goldman cleantech analysts Brian Lee and Thomas Daniels believe the cost of solar panels will continue to fall, dropping by 3% annually. This is consistent with a well-known forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Second, they believe battery costs will drop faster than expected. They cite the Tesla Gigafactory. They believe it will help batteries reach $125 per kilowatt hour from today's $200 per kilowatt hour. And that battery costs will continue to drop 3% each year thereafter.
Meanwhile, they predict that electricity prices will continue to climb by 3% annually. As solar + storage drops while electricity rises, we'll soon hit the crossover point. This is especially true in Hawaii, California and New York where electricity is already more expensive. Goldman thinks solar power will come to dominate even without tax credits and incentives. "Ultimately the holy grail of solar is to move to a situation where the customer is no longer tied to the grid at all. This may be far off, aside from entailing a much more expensive solar/battery system, this is also potentially out of people’s comfort zone entailing a 100% reliance on a new system for their electricity needs. That said, decreased reliability from an aging distribution infrastructure, a broadening desire to reduce the carbon footprint, and perhaps most importantly, the reduction of solar panel and battery costs could also work together to make grid independence a reality for many customers one day."
