At least you didn't contest the observation you quoted from my post.
I've never written a call or bought a put on Ariad, but I wish I had. I'm not starting now.
But I'm not wishing upon "if" statements either. Not sure about which forecast you are referring, but a $3.5M increase in any forecast would be directly related to either a mistake in the original forecast, deferred revenues, or what you suggest, 250+ additional paying patients Mr. Cole inspires over what is already forecast (to be added). That add number could be as low as 112 if the patients all started on drug April 1. ($3.5MM/(125,000/4). BTW, we'll barely have 300 paying on the drug at Q1 end.
So Ariad would have to add 500 paying total in Q2 to get to your $3.5MM number (while we are also recruiting for yet another dosing trial). I hope they get your extra 250 (in addition to the 250 (or so)additional that some forecasts consider.) Those are better than pre Oct numbers. My problem with it, it is just not credible. Show us your math.
It's exactly these kind of overly optimistic, unsupported messages that find us at $7.09, and make our board less credible. If we get to $9, it won't be because of what you suppose. I know my messages are cautionary, but then, I do the math.
BTW, good rumors could get us $9 as soon as tomorrow. All, IMO.
