IMO, the best way to predict the highest future selling price on PTSC stock is to predict the numbers the company will earn over the next 7.5 years.
Obviously, this takes some guess work and assumptions.
Main assumption is that TPL/Alliasense will charge the going rate for doing legal work on a contingency basis, which is 1/3 of any awards or settlement money.
In that event, the remaining 2/3 will be split equally.
This means PTSC will end up with 33% of all MMP license fees.
After all other miscellaneous expenses, PTSC expenses and any other things, shareholders will be rather lucky to see PTSC bank (year after) 30% of all MMP licensing revenues to be used for the future liquidation of the companies assets.
This in theory, because the company with all that money, will never liquidate itself.
All that money divided by approximately 400 million shares is the top trading value you can put on that stock. In reality the selling price of the stock that is close to patents expiration will be about 50% to 75% percent of the expected liquidation value.
Now that was the easy part. Next you must estimate a conservative total for all future MMP revenues based on what would be a good average nuisance value to motivate at least 300 to 350 of the 400 targets to settle prior to filing an infringement or shortly thereafter filing.
1.5 years from now, if we are successful at modifying the number 6 and 12 patent claims and the willfulness issue, during the HTC appeals court case we could eliminate any future resistance to our claims of 336 patent infringement but we may have to wait 5 years from now to get a better damage award ratio then $1 million in damages on $8 billion in product sales that infringe our 336 patent.
I estimate that the worst case scenario for nuisance value is an "average" settlement before or just after filing as being $800,000 per case times 400 targets or $320 million total or PTSC share equal to 96 million divided by 400 million shares which equals a liquidation value of 24 cents per share after 7.5 years.
Obviously, you are not going to pay 24 cents per share today to get back 24 cents per share in 7.5 years as an asset liquidation of the company. The stock will sell at a big discount to that 24 cents a share. The discount can vary as the years go by and as estimates change and become clear and focused.
Obviously, it is very important to get the average price per settlement raised without waiting 5 years for the results a new jury trial. That we get the appeals court to give us willfulness / triple damages and that the loser pays at least the winners reasonable legal expenses plus jury awarded damages.
All in my opinion and if you have a better explanation, I would like to read it.
If we had a different BOD and CEO tomorrow, the stock price would still be about the same per share after the change because right now the money projections and changes to the HTC trial results are more important.
