"The high capital levels are no accident and could be there by design. Perhaps MFBP is looking to acquire other bank(s). ??"
I actually had not considered this. I don't think Banks with TARP funds are prohibited from acquiring or merging with other Banks; however, all Banks must have Regulatory approval prior to acquiring or merging with another Bank (with or without TARP). I believe the regulators generally approve the proposed merger or acquisition, but they do delay the process for review.
After many hours of review, I think TARP was needed only for AIG because of the insurance assets that they clearly did not properly analyze the risk for. If TARP did not happen, then there is no doubt that it would have changed the Banking landscape. Bank of America would still be around because people with capital to invest would have saved it, Warren Buffett comes to mind with his $5 billion in preferred equity as well as their stock offering a couple years back. Citi would have needed to sell off its assets (which it did, along with accept TARP funds). WaMu, Wachovia, Lehman, Merril Lynch would still be bankrupt. Regional Banks and Community Banks that maintained higher capital levels would have gotten an opportunity to purchase assets from these gargantuan banks at pennies on the dollar. There would have been spin offs from the large Banks to separate banking activity and they would have to have fought tooth and nail to find investors. But I think it could have happened. Opportunists like Tom Barrack (CLNY) would have bought the assets that were foreclosed on, which he actually did. And hold until the assets were worth more.
It's hard to pick out Banks that will be acquired. I have owned two banks that were subsequently acquired after I owned them and I have had two on my watch list that have been purchased. One Bank that I think can demand a solid premium for it's Banking operation, that I believe WILL be eventually acquired is BBBI. I am going to hold my modest amount of shares until it has sold. The discount isn't where it once was, but the premium that it can command is better than any Bank I have seen so far.
All of this is just my opinion, and I believe there can be differences of opinion (in regards to TARP). I have come to the conclusion that there will be no "right" answer, but we can debate the issue nonetheless.
Good luck to all.
AI
