GOLDBUGS AMEX Goldbugs Index (GOLD): In the 1970s, I don't think the average...

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CaribbeanJim

Re: 4Godnwv post# 5335

Sunday, 03/16/2008 6:50:42 AM

Sunday, March 16, 2008 6:50:42 AM

In the 1970s, I don't think the average guy on the street got involved until the SECOND MAJOR WAVE. As shown in the charts below, in the 1970s there were actually two major gold waves: first major wave was 1970-1974 ($35 to $195), then a 1.5yr pullback which lopped off almost 50%, then second major wave was 1976-1980 ($105-$875).

I believe we are currently in our FIRST MAJOR WAVE and I'm not sure if this coming intermediate top is the end of the first major bull or not. I doubt that the average guy on the street will get involved until the second major wave (after we get a sizeable pullback like what occurred in 1975-1976). I think the wheels are just beginning to turn in the average guys mind that gold is a great investment if it can be bought low. If the gold market pulls back >30%, you can bet the average guy will not miss the second major bull wave.

Jan 4 - We have transitioned into a bear market. Completely different rules apply.
May 23 - IMO, any price at/above this close makes a great Nasdaq/SP500 short.