nsom challenge
One thing that I'd like to see folks put in their nsom challenges is what % return (or range) they're hoping to get from their picks. That would make it a little easier to figure out which ones are homerun swings, and which ones are more conservative (i far prefer the former over the latter)
AXTI - I'll probably ensure that I have at least one solar stock in the contest thru PSL9, at which point (if not sooner) they are all going to tank. But AXTI, which has started to get some notice lately, seems to be lagging the bunch despite indications that they're in the sweet spot for solar. EPS and growth rate is their downfall, and whether they'll get that together during PSL8 timeframe is debatable. BUT, and it's why I include them, I believe that solar profits in other stocks will flow to AXTI, and I should be able to get at least 25% out of it.
BPMA.OB - chinese pharma stock that actually has an approved genetic cancer drug giving them revenues. This stock has really been beaten down due to 144 selling, and may not recover from it in time to give me the 50% i'm hoping for in PSL8, but the catalysts are there for 50% and more.
CNEH.OB - deferring the good DD on this one to others on the board, but i had to have an energy play, and i had to have a chinese energy play. not so many choices beyond this one! Looking for 40-50%.
DFNS.OB - always a favorite of the PSL series, and usually performs well when bought in the sub-.30 range. upcoming earnings should provide a catalyst. wouldn't take much volume to get to .45ish, thereby providing about a 50% return surprisingly.
MHJ - i have a love/hate relationship with this stock. on the one hand it's probably one of the deepest value plays out there, with God-knows-how-much embedded value due to large realestate holdings in china that are NOT marked to market. at the same time, EPS isn't growing that fast, neither are revenues, and the U.S. consumer is not too thrilled about spending money. I suspect that this one could go to $20 in '08, but i'd settle for about 20% in the PSL8 timeframe.
XFML - China finance and media...need i say more? this one is a little of a momentum play as well, with the kickers being that it's bottomed out and making accretive acquisitions. I see quite a bit of value here, and a run to $7-$10 should be in the cards. I'd probably trade it out at $8, and pocket about 35% along the way.
Looks like I'm shooting for about a 35% gain, all tolled...probably not enough to win. I'll need to make some good trades!
steel.
Solid DD combined with timeliness and conviction is a recipe for profits.
