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lentinman

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Followers 152
Posts 14953
Boards Moderated 38
Alias Born 09/02/2004

lentinman

Re: None

Monday, 12/17/2007 3:28:02 AM

Monday, December 17, 2007 3:28:02 AM

Post# of 21
NilesCrane FINAL MEMORIAL: Taken from Ibox:

PICK SIX LOTTO SIX (PSL6): http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=9121

May 21, 2007 to August 31, 2007
88 Participants -- Gainers: 41, Losers: 47
Average gain: -2%


WINNER: niles_crane3: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/profile.asp?user=49627

Top 10 Posters 
 1 NILES CRANE3      35.69% 
  2 VALUEMIND         30.60% 
  3 RESEARCHER59      27.98% 
  4 WADEGARRET        27.72% 
  5 LENTINMAN         26.71% 
  6 OLDPRO            22.19% 
  7 MR.SHEEP -NO CASH 21.13% 
  8 MICHAEL T         20.85% 
  9 WYOBUFORD         19.79% 
 10 DANLC             19.72%
Top 10 Stocks: 
 1 RVEP      74.40% 
  2 CHNG.OB   72.50% 
  3 EXM       71.85% 
  4 AEY       70.84% 
  5 FTK       69.03% 
  6 CFSG.OB   68.45% 
  7 CKGT.OB   57.41% 
  8 CHNR      50.14% 
  9 LWAY      50.00% 
 10 KEQU      41.41%

Persons in First Place during the contest.

NILES_CRANE
LENTINMAN
FOOTWEDGE
KRISRYDEN
SOUTHACRESDAVE
BEIGLEDOG


NILES' VITAL STATISTICS:

Was consistently in the top-5. Took the lead in the first week and was in and out of the lead through week 6 where he took the lead for good. His high was +50.82% on the 4th day of the 9th week. He finished at +35.69%.


Niles_Crane's COMMENTARY:

Well, I obviously had a huge amount of luck in winning this. I do think my approach happened to fit the time, but I can't claim to have planned it all.

First off; I'm a 55 year old retired biochemist, living in Northern New Jersey. I lived most of my adult life in Nashville, TN, so it's sort of a repeat Tennessee connection from DANLC. I took on the name "Niles Crane" way back in the 90's, I think, when setting up my Raging Bull. A plumber happened to mention that week that I resembled the character on Frasier, and the Niles/Dsphne plot was in full swing at the time. So, it was just a spur of the moment thing. I ran into Bobwins, I think on the Medifast board back in '82, along with a couple of others, and carried the name over to I-Hub as it was established on the RB-Value Micro board. I must admit, I've grown tired of the name at times (seems dated), and once set up a new name, "Adrian Monk", but noone would talk to me. So, it was back to Niles. Incidently, David Hyde Pierce was a main figure in an Alzheimers support society in which I was also involved.

Well, honestly, I did not spend a lot of time on this. I mostly wanted to post a respectable score, like 25-35%, which I figured might give me in 25th place, or so. I also was somewhat disappointed in the previous couple of contests, in that I ended up choosing stocks that didn't really reflect my own account very well. In the first contest, I did well with a bunch of stocks that reflected what I was doing, and only missed out because of WHAI.ob, which I only briefly owned. I figured my selection might not go far, but it should at least have some good stocks in it. So, this sort of thinking influenced some of my selections.

Anyway, my starting hand was FTK, KHD, MKRS.ob, CPSH.ob, TDON.pk (WK) and HSOA.

FTK- I picked FTK because it was my #1 holding. The stock was in the mid-40's and overbought, but I just put it down to "represent".

KHD- I had picked up 2K of this in the 30's and this was my #2 holding at the time. This had a run in the two weeks pre-contest, so I was hesitant, but figured it would hold its' own. It's a volatile stock, with limited liquidity, but on a solid growth path.

MKRS.ob- I picked MKRS because of a sense that it was timely and could give me a decent move right off the bat. Five others picked MKRS, but they had all been into it for years. I, honestly, only have a vague notion of what they're doing with the Navy, but I sensed things were happening. I owned a medium position here as well, perhaps my 15th largest.

CPSH.ob- This is a high tech stock that had mostly sat around for years in the 1's. They had posted a .06 quarter, ran to the mid-3's, and re-traced to 2.8. They had cautioned that this was an unusual quarter, however, so the selloff wasn't surprising. Nevertheless, I sensed the stock was somewhat of a "coiled spring" at 2.8, and would re-bound, at least somewhat. There was potential here for major news, although no guarantees. I also had a small position here (about 2%)

TDON.pk- Another high tech stock trying to change the world. The were busy at the time hiring people from respectable companies, like KEYW (old ESEX), and were preparing financials for an eventual submission to gain bulletin board status. I figured a BB-listing, if nothing else, would be good for 50%. I had about a 2% position here, as well.

HSOA- I guess this was one I just picked up at the end, mostly because it was beaten down. I had been toying with ALY or BTJ, or possibly AEY, all of which I owned, and I didn't have any HSOA at the time. I might have been hesitant to over-weight oil service, and figured HSOA was due for a rebound.

Trading- Mostly bad moves.

I did not realize for several weeks that freezes were free. Thus, I missed a couple of good opportunities (HSOA for one).

1. Froze MKRS at 0.65, unfroze MKRS at 0.6. As I said, I was just trying to post a decent score. MKRS had come down from 0.7, and I wanted to secure something. Later, I saw momentum developing. An opportunity nevertheless arose to get back in at 0.6, and I took it. So, I gained a small amount of leverage on the five MKRS-heads, but used up a trade.

2. Froze CPSH (25% profit). It had moved from 2.8 to 3.9, and then retraced. I sold at 3.6 as a sort of stop. There had been no news, and I just wanted to book something.

2. Froze FTK at around 56, doubled down on MKRS at 0.75. This initially looked like a good move, but I don't think it eventually proved so (I'd have to do the math). Staying put would have saved a trade. Nevertheless, it may have led to my eventual win (see below).

3. Froze MKRS at .95. Although my inclination was to hold out for more, the fact that I had a double down and used my FTK, meant that it was riskier for me to hold than for the MKRS heads. So, I had to get out. In this sense, my original trade of FTK proved valuable.

4. Froze TDON at 0.78. They had become quiet, fallen into the 60's, and, luckily for me, rebounded. I just didn't think anything was going to happen, so I gladly took a small profit.

5. Traded frozen and leveraged MKRS for SMID.ob at 2.16. At the time, my main competition was still the MKRS crowd. They tended to share both SMID and TSTA. I thought that SMID seemed like a safe bottom, and there was hope of a 0.1 EPS quarter. As it happened, it started to move soon thereafter, but stalled around 2.4.

6. Traded leveraged SMID.ob (+11%) for QUA.to. By now, the metal heads were charging in full force. I thought QUA.to was a relatively safe pick. Would have done better with TGB, I suppose. In any event, it kept me ahead of "Just for Fun", as my level reached 50%+.

7. Froze KHD (up 20%).. could have gotten 23% if held. Just thought it'd be best to book it.

8. Froze HSOA (around 4.9, -24.85%).. I had decided to set a line in the sand. My WHAI experience in Contest One (although freezes weren't allowed) was telling me to limit the damage. As it was, the stock rallied to 5.7, but I doubt if I would have sold then. Might have sold afterwards at 5.2, but I'm not sure if I would have. So, I was a little lucky here.

9. Froze leveraged QUA.to (-13.7%). This was done three weeks before the contest end, effectively ending my participation. Turns out this was a very bad move, as it would have ended with a small profit, and I'd have ended 45%. The Fed lowered interest rates shortly thereafter, and the market stabilized. (BTW, I took my frustration out on buying QUA.to heavily in my own account :) I was sure that three weeks would give someone the opportunity to move ahead of me, but it just didn't happen.

So, just some luck, along with a willingness to take profits and limit losses (for better or worse) proved good enough.

It was fun to be ahead for a change, but I find the contest useful for the way it brings stocks to our attention. Keep up the good work!

Niles

Warren Buffet: 5 minutes and 17 seconds of pure, unadulterated, bulletproof, flawless logic.



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