Tuesday, October 16, 2007 8:20:46 PM
A Rough Valuation...
should yield us a much higher stock price from here.Sentai (which has been in business for over 20 years) should put us at around 30 cents per share for that division alone. (1.3 million in EBITDA ~2 cents per shares). Let's not forget that the Sentai division is still growing with recent agreement with Cognos (multi-million $ company).
Now the core of GRYW is ClearCalm where the company spent many months to develop and test the product with various companies in the market. For those who are still not sure what the ClearCalm system does, it is basically a wireless device that allows firefighters to communicate btw them in hazardous environment (think firefighters during a rescue session). The system is basically an "add-on"/upgrade to the SCBA (Self Contained Breathing Apparatus).
In today's market there are about 2 million SCBA. ClearCalm is designed to be install on the Scott SCBA only..( 1.2 million SCBA are from them...see picture below).
If GRYW can captures say only 10% of the SCBA market, we are golden.
Here are some parameters for the valuation.
Optimistic Valuation:
25% of the SCBA market => 300,000 units
Net EBITDA => 300 million dollar
Net EPS => $5.45
P/E of 10 => $54 per share
10% of the SCBA market => 120,000 units).
Net EBITDA => 120 million dollar
NET EPS => 2.18 cents
P/E of 10 => $21.80 per share
Pessimistic Valuation:
5% of the SCBA market => 60,000 units
Net EBITDA => 60 million dollar
Net EPS =>1.09 cents
P/E of 10 =>$10 per share
1% of the SCBA market =>12,000 units
NET EBITDA => 12 million dollar
Net EPS =>0.22 cents
P/E of 10 => $2.20 per share
So even if GRYW can capture ONLY 1% of the SCBA market, the stock price could trade at a much higher price then here..of course it will take sometimes before they can capture just 1% of the market but if and when the products get some major exposure..it could become reality in my humble opinion :) -Gecko
should yield us a much higher stock price from here.Sentai (which has been in business for over 20 years) should put us at around 30 cents per share for that division alone. (1.3 million in EBITDA ~2 cents per shares). Let's not forget that the Sentai division is still growing with recent agreement with Cognos (multi-million $ company).
Now the core of GRYW is ClearCalm where the company spent many months to develop and test the product with various companies in the market. For those who are still not sure what the ClearCalm system does, it is basically a wireless device that allows firefighters to communicate btw them in hazardous environment (think firefighters during a rescue session). The system is basically an "add-on"/upgrade to the SCBA (Self Contained Breathing Apparatus).
In today's market there are about 2 million SCBA. ClearCalm is designed to be install on the Scott SCBA only..( 1.2 million SCBA are from them...see picture below).
If GRYW can captures say only 10% of the SCBA market, we are golden.
Here are some parameters for the valuation.
Optimistic Valuation:
25% of the SCBA market => 300,000 units
Net EBITDA => 300 million dollar
Net EPS => $5.45
P/E of 10 => $54 per share
10% of the SCBA market => 120,000 units).
Net EBITDA => 120 million dollar
NET EPS => 2.18 cents
P/E of 10 => $21.80 per share
Pessimistic Valuation:
5% of the SCBA market => 60,000 units
Net EBITDA => 60 million dollar
Net EPS =>1.09 cents
P/E of 10 =>$10 per share
1% of the SCBA market =>12,000 units
NET EBITDA => 12 million dollar
Net EPS =>0.22 cents
P/E of 10 => $2.20 per share
So even if GRYW can capture ONLY 1% of the SCBA market, the stock price could trade at a much higher price then here..of course it will take sometimes before they can capture just 1% of the market but if and when the products get some major exposure..it could become reality in my humble opinion :) -Gecko
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