NSOM CHALLENGE
HRBN--Makes motors in China.Have owned for three years because of explosive revenue growth potential across many applications in major industries. So far has mostly been potential, however recent PR guided for revs to increase about 7X over the next three years. Hard to value on EPS basis because high R&D expenses and funky Citadel debt financing keep reported earnings low despite the fact that management has been very stingy issuing shares historically. Trading in the last few days has been 3-4X normal volume on no news which suggests that institutional investors are starting to get excited about the story. Hard to say what it's worth or how high it could go. Any opinions welcomed because I own it and need to decide on a selling price.
FSIN--Started buying in April. China wire manufacturer which substitutes aluminum for some of the copper component to lower cost. Growing quickly at decent margins and expanding production and guiding for diluted EPS of $1.03--$1.13 for 2007. Moved up to NASDAQ on 8/31. Was trading at about 10 PE until acquisiton of U.S. competitor was announced two days ago which should approximately double revenues with no share dilution. Since then it has risen from $11.40 to $15.32. Okay I got lucky, but should get some credit for picking a forward looking company with good management.
EGY--Don't own now, but share price has declined significantly as oil price has moved the other way. They are "between gushers" now but are cheap relative to reserves and if oil stays high should see price rise. Seemed like a value oil play.
CML.V--Nearer term producing mining play which had lagged the recent mining rally. I own a bunch and think it should continue to rise as production nears if nickel price stays high.
DFR--Mortgage REIT paying dividend at 19% annual rate at current price. If they can hold dividend and have no significant write downs of bad loans this quarter, the price should really pop--particularly with declining interest rates. I own at an average cost of $10 in real life so am still down.
BX--Blackstone--the classic microcap. The Chinese government is in for $$ billions at $31 per share. The price drops below $22. I don't think that's allowed in our new world order, so I figured it had to rebound at least somewhat. I was tempted to buy the options but never pulled the trigger. Looks like it would have been a good trade.
