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nelson1234

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nelson1234

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Re: nsomniyak post# 35

Saturday, 09/15/2007 12:23:23 PM

Saturday, September 15, 2007 12:23:23 PM

Post# of 971
NSOM challenge

1.CGLA ($9.55) - Prduction and distribution of poultry products. 4.7 million shares o/s, of which company insiders own 63%, and two institutions (Fidelity and Advisory Research) own 17%. So about 950,000 share float. Trading at $9.55, they made .33 last qtr. The Sept qtr has historically been their strongest qtr. While their costs have gone up considerably (notably corn and soy) they have been able to pass on increases last qtr. Soy has continued to go up, while corn has stabilized. Possible big qtr in Sept. They have lost a lot of money in the past, and its possible June was a one-off great qtr. Also, this is a small family run biz, so that also is in some ways a negative (they run the company for their interests only, and who knows, they could delist if they wanted).

2. MTO.v ($.68)- Metanor - Gold exploration company. I own a lot of gold exploration juniors - around 15. There's really no reason MTO vs the others, but I could only pick one since they are all money losing. I like the sector, they have a lot of cash on hand due to their recent offering, an the prospects for their properties are very good. I believe they are scheduled to start production soon on a limited basis, but I can't find the pr on it for now. Anyway, my method of buying jrs is to buy a basket of lots of companies - so I certainly wouldn't advise anyone to take a huge plunge in MTO, but its at least as good as the rest of my gold jr's.

3. FCPO ($7.35) - Piece 'O' Crap party goods retailer, trading well below book. Earnings out next week. Cheap IMO, and they've been looking to be bought out - thats the reason the stock went up to the upper twelves recently (now low sevens). Wish it stayed in the sixes before PS7, but some small buyer sent it to the sevens. I thought it would bring $12+ in a buyout, but that was before the squeeze on credit. So we'll see. I've had great success trading this one over the years, but admittedly that was in a positive retailing environment.

4. TSTC ($4.70) - Chinese telcom which I've traded successfully for the past two/three years. By their own estimates, the next few qtrs should be very strong, and on a book basis its also cheap. I think any news could send this up a few bucks. However, its A/R are ridiculously high, and its cash flow sucks. Traded as high as $11 this year. I don't trust these guys at all, but I do think its probable they head up before earnings.

5. SENEA ($26.50) - Fruit and Vegetable processing/distribution company - canned and frozen. Big brands include Libbeys and Seneca. Trailing pe of less than ten and below book. Made .44 last qtr (vs .33) in a seasonally weak qtr - hoping for a lot more this qtr. Negatives are big debt, and increasing raw material prices. Seems very cheap relative to peers.

6. TIII ($2.24) - I was going to put 'cash' in as by sixth pick, but I saw TIII trading at $2.12 and I figured I could trade out of it for a five percent gain in a few days. Unfortunately for me someone bought a few hundred shares to send it up for the day. Mistake pick, but I still like it long term. I picked it in PSL6 and what I said still stands: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?Message_id=19900112&txt2find=tiii. However, due to moving costs next qtr may not be good.

I'm long all of the above.


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