Posted By: JeffMasters at 3:18 PM GMT on August 26, 2007
Updated: 3:22 PM GMT on August 26, 2007
Disorganized thunderstorm activity continues over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This activity is probably too close to land to develop, as it is expected to move westwards over Mexico over the next day. A westward-moving tropical wave is kicking up some disorganized thunderstorm activity in the southern Caribbean near the coast of Columbia. This area is under 10-20 knots of wind shear. The NOGAPS model predicts that this disturbance could develop into a tropical depression on Tuesday as it approaches the Nicaragua/Honduras coast. However, the NOGAPS model has been overly aggressive developing tropical cyclones in this portion of the Caribbean this year, and I don't expect this system will develop.
The four reliable forecast models for forecasting the genesis of tropical cyclones are all indicating possibility of a tropical depression forming off the North Carolina coast or off the coast of Africa late this week. Anything that does develop off the Carolina coast is likely to move northeastwards, out to sea. The greater threat to land would be a development off the coast of Africa. While it is currently quiet in the ITCZ region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, I expect this activity to pick up late this week as some strong tropical waves move off the coast of Africa. A new tropical depression in this region 5-8 days from now has about a 40% chance of happening.
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