Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX): ITT Basis (the real results) I saw on...

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Re: go seek post# 1166

Tuesday, 06/12/2007 1:02:29 PM

Tuesday, June 12, 2007 1:02:29 PM

ITT Basis (the real results)

I saw on iHub that the advantage for the triple-therapy arm was over 10% :

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=20377556

But it actually did NOT make the cut, if you read the news release:

Of patients that completed 12 weeks of therapy, 72.2 percent .......triple combination therapy (arm B) achieved HCV PCR-negativity, compared to 61.5 percent ......There were three discontinuations from the study, all due to adverse events (AEs)...... valopicitabine-related gastrointestinal toxicity. The two other AEs, including a serious adverse event (SAE).....occurred in the triple combination arm (arm B).

That checks out @ 3 patients left out who did not make the grade; instead of 72.2% of 36 on triple (exactly 26 of course), it's 26/39 which is 66.66 %. Compare that with 24/39 on SoC. Is there an investment thesis here ?

So the margin is 5.5% not 10%. Almost certainly NOT statistically significant. Actually using Fischer's Exact Test the result is:

"The two-tailed P value equals 0.8137"

Plus all the discontinuations were due to AEs on this "efficaceous" arm.

Sooner or later people (analysts etc) will see through this release. I expect IDIX to drift lower now, it's too vulnerable.

"....on the biotech battle-field, you need some élan...."