Monday, November 13, 2006 12:52:55 PM
A few thoughts on AAGH
We’ve had a week of volatile trading, and the share price has been going both ways. I’d say that there has been a substantial day trader participation in the stock. Sometimes stock prices are only loosely connected to the real value of a company; especially when the traders are playing.
Back to basics. What are we looking for here? Well, it’s a significant increase in share price, and it is supposed to happen because of a great 3rd quarter. On Friday, we got a PR with some information about the 3rd quarter results, but we didn’t get the 10Q itself (expected by the middle of this week). It’s the 10Q that will drive the share price up … not the PR.
By the way; what does AAGH management want to see in terms of share price? Well I notice that both management and employees are being paid a substantial amount of their income in shares (or share options), so I would expect that all of them will do whatever it takes to get the share price up.
What can they do? They can make the company more profitable. Let’s see how they’re doing. Here’s the net income figures for the last 11 quarters (including the approximation for Q3 from Friday’s PR). It’s the graph that tells the story though.…
One note of caution on the $900,000 above. Friday’s PR labeled it as “income”, not as net income. It could be either. I don’t know which it is. It’s possible that the printing factory deal went through, and that the last payment was paid in cash (about $300,000). If this is the case, and if the 900,000 is gross income, then it may drop to $600,000 net income to cover the acquisition payment for the printing factory. Would a net of $600,000 (rather than $900,000) make a big difference in the graph above?
By the way, I think you should decide in advance whether or not it’s a good thing for AAGH to be spending money on acquisitions. I like the idea myself; but if you haven’t decided yet, be sure to decide before the 10Q comes out, because it’s likely to be mentioned. The specific question is: how do you feel about $900,000 net without the printing factory versus $600,000 net with the printing factory.
Oh yes, and what if the $900,000 is net (like AAGH have always reported). This could mean that the net would have been $1.2 million before the $300,000 was taken out of it for the printing factory. Management has PR’ed good news in the past, only to file something later that was even better than the earlier PR showed. Don’t rule out them doing the same thing this time.
rjc
We’ve had a week of volatile trading, and the share price has been going both ways. I’d say that there has been a substantial day trader participation in the stock. Sometimes stock prices are only loosely connected to the real value of a company; especially when the traders are playing.
Back to basics. What are we looking for here? Well, it’s a significant increase in share price, and it is supposed to happen because of a great 3rd quarter. On Friday, we got a PR with some information about the 3rd quarter results, but we didn’t get the 10Q itself (expected by the middle of this week). It’s the 10Q that will drive the share price up … not the PR.
By the way; what does AAGH management want to see in terms of share price? Well I notice that both management and employees are being paid a substantial amount of their income in shares (or share options), so I would expect that all of them will do whatever it takes to get the share price up.
What can they do? They can make the company more profitable. Let’s see how they’re doing. Here’s the net income figures for the last 11 quarters (including the approximation for Q3 from Friday’s PR). It’s the graph that tells the story though.…
Net Income
2004 Q1 57,303
Q2 44,829
Q3 ( 37,926)
Q4 409,743
2005 Q1 999
Q2 71,199
Q3 ( 22,262)
Q4 (335,223)
2006 Q1 (107,685)
Q2 335,001
Q3 900,000
One note of caution on the $900,000 above. Friday’s PR labeled it as “income”, not as net income. It could be either. I don’t know which it is. It’s possible that the printing factory deal went through, and that the last payment was paid in cash (about $300,000). If this is the case, and if the 900,000 is gross income, then it may drop to $600,000 net income to cover the acquisition payment for the printing factory. Would a net of $600,000 (rather than $900,000) make a big difference in the graph above?
By the way, I think you should decide in advance whether or not it’s a good thing for AAGH to be spending money on acquisitions. I like the idea myself; but if you haven’t decided yet, be sure to decide before the 10Q comes out, because it’s likely to be mentioned. The specific question is: how do you feel about $900,000 net without the printing factory versus $600,000 net with the printing factory.
Oh yes, and what if the $900,000 is net (like AAGH have always reported). This could mean that the net would have been $1.2 million before the $300,000 was taken out of it for the printing factory. Management has PR’ed good news in the past, only to file something later that was even better than the earlier PR showed. Don’t rule out them doing the same thing this time.
rjc
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