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Post# of 173891
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MikeDDKing

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MikeDDKing

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Re: None

Wednesday, 06/06/2007 3:33:25 PM

Wednesday, June 06, 2007 3:33:25 PM

Post# of 173891
I picked up a position in KRSL around $17 to add to my collection of aerospace companies. The collection now includes EDAC, SIF, and KRSL. Thanks to SSKILLZ1 for pointing me at KRSL.

Here is some DD on KRSL:

- The last quarter earnings were $0.16/share but would have been $0.28 without some one time charges.
- The backlog has increased to $29.7M plus they have an additional UTC LOI that will add over $10M to the backlog. To put this in perspective, the revenue last quarter was $5.8M. At the current run rate they have over 6 quarters of revenue in their backlog plus LOI with a total backlog/LOI in the $40M range. Their backlog has been steadily increasing for the past two year. I expect to see some significant increases in revenue in the coming two or three quarters with their huge backlog.
- I'm expecting earnings for the next quarter to be in the $0.30-$0.35 range and to move up from there. That is slightly lower than others on the board are expecting.
- Here is some historical information on revenue, GM, backlog and EPS: 

Quarter          Revenue   GM   Backlog    EPS 
 Q3'07 - 03/07     $6.2M  *15.8%  $29.7M  +$0.16 
 Q2'07 - 12/06     $6.0M   25.0%  $23.3M   $0.33 
 Q1'07 - 09/06     $5.1M   18.1%  $23.8M   $0.21 
 Q4'06 - 06/06     $5.8M   13.6%  $20.8M   $0.13 
 Q3'06 - 03/06     $5.4M   18.8%  $20.9M   $0.24 
 Q2'06 - 12/05     $4.4M   17.5%  $17.5M   $0.16 
 Q1'06 - 09/05     $4.1M   14.0%  $16.8M   $0.10 
  
 * GM in the most recent quarter would have been 19.5% without the warranty issue which is a one-time event. 
 + EPS in the most recent quarter would have been $0.28 without one-time events.


- One risk with KRSL is that their largest customer represents 64% of revenue. I'm not concerned about that from an AR point of view but more from a future revenue point of view.

Mike
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