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Thank you for the post. I recall phase 2 results expected first half. The timing of this buy suggests that maybe results are somewhere on the horizon at least and may be somewhat timely. Seems an accumulation lately, the controlled price action with movement, combined with the low float... I’m optimistic here
Wow a lot of concurrent news. If I am understanding, it appears that Immuron is 1) going an fda approval pathway for travelan, 2) gained more intellectual property rights for c diff treatment in the US, and 3) affirmed timely results release for their ASH trial (late q2) that just concluded. The travelan fda angle is smart, free marketing being the biggest benefit. Foreign travel is also still a lucrative business and their are niche travel medicine clinics that would easily adopt the usage of fda approved products without much pr expenditure needed. I’m not looking a gift horse in the mouth, but the timing of so many simultaneous updates appears to be a signal of some sort of news cycle/pathway beginning... I doubt this is the last we hear from them in the coming months, in addition to expected ASH results. Any type of positive signal generated by the ASH trial (ignoring their other free NIH trials ongoing in similar indications), could be very very well timed. It is a totally different mechanism than ICPT, (thank goodness, ICPT’s data and their pruritis/itching issues leave a lot to be desired)- so IMRN could in some ways fill a potential treatment void that ICPT’s lackluster results created. Ie if good, IMRN could demonstrate an anti inflammatory effect on liver that could then be tested in fibrosis pathways, possibly as a combo drug with some other compounds being tested for Nash, or to slow damage with alcoholics etc. Anyways, the super low mkt cap will likely lead me to add a bit more now. I’m most hopeful for c diff indication, and the travelan marketing fda pathway is just a bonus. The ash trial seems like biggest long shot, but also most immediate potential upside (landslide really) if it could hit. I’m investing for the c diff stuff, the ASH/NASH pathway is just a big lottery ticket. I bet a lot of people are looking for lottery tickets right now though, after the recent Nash failures in bigger companies. Best of luck all
Hey guys, a quick thought or two. Nothing big, just bored waiting for the 5211 conference and patiently waiting for the offering trading pattern to subside. Excited for the rest of the Nash results for the stuff that wasn’t released with top line. So far so good. Hard to imagine that liver fat reduced would be that big. I read some post with article saying can’t compare our study to MDGL bc diff enrollment criteria. I’m less concerned by this as the magnitude of effect in our study is so substantial that it seems less likely that when we eventually expand enrollment criteria, it’s a large gap we would have to drop to not be considered at Least as efficacious as MDGL (with MDGL remaining double priced over our pending post offering cap). Cuz right now the discrepancy of how much more potent ours seems to be looks kinda outrageous. The ability to use a medication to selectively and efficiently shrink the fat content of an organ seems like rocket science compared to our current lipid targeting drugs imho. Gets me wondering, could it possibly even just a little bit reduce the fat content around and with other internal organs, (ie maybe at a much lesser extent or something (makes me think of diseases that involve fat accumulation in internal organs, and makes me wonder if this could be an implication related to heart health comment I think I saw somewhere).
I read a scientific article awhile back that said that heart attack and stroke risks actually was ? found to be more correlated with the amount of intraperitoneal fat (fat in your stomach outside your intestines basically, in the linings that hold the intestines together and elsewhere), rather than how fat you are on the outside. Some people really are ‘skinny fat’ - they can be thin built but have lots of intraperitonal fat (and fatty liver etc)- and their heart risks, the article claimed, was higher perhaps as an example, than a super fat guy who had less intraperitoneal fat. Anyways, gives me a lot of hope for this class of compound. Whether it turns into relevance, maybe maybe not.
I saw GTXI’s sarm didn’t get the primary endpoint. I’m actually ok with that, and started a position in gtxi this morning. I’m gambling it might be short term rough but long term better for them and us, and is better for viking. Not for reasons you may think tho. ?They were looking at how much pelvic floor muscle growth was occurring with their compound, and if it would subsequent influence how strong your ‘stop from peeing’ muscles are. If sarms end up getting a rap as influencing urination (as a class they aren’t gonna be massively different sometimes in some regards), that could maybe limit their use in people that have urinary retention or in people who don’t want their pee muscle gettin big (a variety of conditions would require caution there). And... (who has all kinds of weird urinary issues of all flavors, old hip fracture folks). So I was kinda ok w seeing it didn’t do massive things there. In my mind, I’d rather see the muscle growth where it’s really needed, the limbs (appendicular), not bulkin up your poop and pee muscles haha. So here’s the question. Maybe the secondary data will guide a different type of endpoint or approval angle for gtxi, that happens rarely but can occur. But if not, I just find it hard to believe that gtxi wouldn’t be able to ‘repurpose’ their sarm. Look at all the fun stuff ours might do (I can’t wait for this conference next week bone n joint one 5211)- muscle building, maybe bone healing. If their drug targets different muscles (likely it’s alternatively a potency thing), or the same as ours, there is a role for every muscle in the body, and likely a symptom constellation out there needing treating, depending on all of the stuff this drug does. Unless it’s some pelvic floor muscle only sarm, which isn’t ringing a bell maybe I’m wrong. So I like viking even more, and temporary reduced competition is never bad, and for a 50 mil or less market cap, I’ll throw my gambling cap on, acknowledging I may lose, but hey, life’s a gamble. I have much less knowledge and confidence in their sarm, so don’t give anything I said more than a passing thought. By default, I’m even happier to be holding Viking, as I still believe we are pursuing an awesome endpoint. See older posts, but in this old sick hip population, quality of life may become a more relevant secondary than some suspect, if we even need to go that route (prob not but never hurts to have plan b)
Cheers viking bros
Waffles
Hey buddy,
Re-read it today. Here's a couple thoughts. All in all, a very good call, imho. A few things to consider. In order of when they appear in the call.
"we've been notified that our abstract received the 2018 most outstanding clinical abstract award by the ASBMR conference organizers." So... the ASBMR stands for "American Society for Bone and Mineral Research" and their blurb is 'cutting edge bone research.' We had a clinical trial designed initially to look at muscle mass change. I'm not trying to leap to conclusions, but this in my mind suggests that there may actually be something to what they started hinting at earlier in the year... bone changes and fracture healing changes. So if you are more active in physical therapy you are probably gonna have better fracture healing, (seems obvious). So maybe it's just as simple as possibly improved fracture healing being related to better functional status and improved therapy participation (if better bone healing does exist, it's being hinted at unicorn still). But again, if this turns out to exist (and honestly it's what I am currently most excited about in the 5211 realm), it could actually be drug related. So, you may or may not know this, but anabolics can change people's physical appearance, one example being, giving them a more prominent jawline, kind of a cave man type of appearance in some ways. I forget the exact biochem pathway and maybe I'm blurring the lines with HGH (human growth hormone compounds), but possibly our drug could have a similar bone amplifying type of property as well. It's a shot in the dark. I could go on and on about that one, but I'll let people run with it from there in their minds. I will add that it would be slightly unusual for the most outstanding clinical abstract at the yearly bone conference, to have nothing to do with bones ;) that's the real key here, the big elephant in the room in that realm. Sure hip fractures are broken bones, but there has to be a sizeable link here to earn them this much notariety in this type of national forum. So honestly I think we may get a surprise or two at the Sept 30 conference, or at least it's a little more than possible in my mind. Lots and lots of abstracts get submitted, this is a big deal, this nomination, much bigger than just being a plenary presentation, they are saying that we Are the presentation to see. Why that's the case, seems like more than just what we currently know about the topline stuff. I'll leave it at that.
Next one- related to what I discussed above
"It is our belief that VK5211 may represent an important treatment option for these patients by STIMULATING THE FORMATION OF BONE AND MUSCLE thereby improving musculoskeletal health and facilitating recovery from the injury. Related directly to what I discussed above. I was all-in long ago thinking that just giving anabolic like drugs could turbo charge physical therapy recovery. Again, this is a big deal if it pans out. Like easy pathway to approval (if it exists). If you could show that SARMS have anabolic like bone growth properties, and use them in a sick bone fracture population that ends up immobile due to hip fracture, this could be the key to the FDA puzzle that has left others short-handed in the past. No joke. It may be a direction they choose to travel in with subsequent trial as well. Also may be why they are looking at partnering with the types of pharma companies they have discussed.
Next one- Re: 2809 "the trial Data Safety Monitoring Board continues to receive regular updates from the study, and has continued to allow the trial to proceed as planned." Ok... this is an education piece to reference stuff I have talked about before, and to shut up all the nay-sayers who claim that a company has 'no idea' what's going on in their trials, until they get the data. Not tooting my own horn here, just saying, this is obvious stuff to me, but shorts love to claim that trial results are like magically unknown until the trial is over. They have to submit ongoing safety data (ie. ALT LEVELS) as the trial goes on, and the trial is allowed to proceed. This is what I've been talking about. The fact that they reached end of enrollment and were allowed to proceed, makes some random huge ALT elevation problem really a lot less unlikely. This is a little bit of powder to back up that kind of stuff. Doesn't exclude any problems, but makes big problems less likely, the longer Any trial is allowed to proceed, not just specific to us. Reassures me.
Next one- They will begin dosing in glycogen storage disease this quarter (using 2809). The fact that they are moving full steam ahead with 2809 molecule in other indications, at this juncture, also seems to suggest to me that it is becoming less likely that major side effects are coming. Just speculation. Also excited to hear that the glycogen storage disease next trial of 2809 is going to have 28 day lipid data readouts. Starting it later this quarter and getting data readouts in that time frame, means we might get promising follow-up data from 2809 not too long after the phase 2 LDL/NASH readouts... no waiting a year or anything for 2809 to re-emerge to the scene. They are stacking the deck with a lot of data readouts a few months apart, really smart stuff imho.
Next one- (back to 5211)
"When you look at the muscle that's involved in stress urinary incontinence, VK5211 has shown very robust efficacy at an extremely low dose." So I was thinking about this stuff over the weekend after giving the CC a quick read, and had a revelation that I should have realized before. I was wondering how they would know this... and well... duh moment. So they are using DXA scans and other imaging to evaluate the muscles and bones AROUND THE HIP for 5211. What's right next to your hips (right between them actually) --- your pelvic floor. I don't know the protocols they used to guide and direct their imaging, but there is a chance they may already have more pelvic floor muscle data (or at least a rough roadmap of what's going on), based upon the areas they are concentrating on with the hips. To make it vague and illustrate my point - if I order an xray to look at someone's lungs for a cough, I'm also gonna see their heart, and their shoulders, and some of their intestines occasionally, etc. Also a likely reason why they are waiting on GTXI's data. Why even go there, pushing the pelvic floor muscle theory, until GTXI proves that there is something to the theory that strengthening pelvic floor muscle will fix urinary stress incontinence. Wait until they prove the linkage, then delve deeper after the argument is strengthened... then it would make perfect sense to approach that angle, because likely they have some degree of access in a broad sense, to what their drug does to those muscles. We see muscles on CT scan all the time, and how big they are, this isn't rocket science and won't need incredibly advanced testing to look at, compared to what we are already using to look at the hip bone/muscle area. Also, it would be nice if GTXI would rocket on the news, it would really help Viking to figure out just how big of an ace card they are sitting on, and to what extent they need to partner. Like whether or not to license out the compound for all future indications, or just for an isolated one like the hip, etc. That's getting a little advanced, so I'm gonna stop there, but you get the picture.
To all fellow longs, hope all is well. I check the other boards and see all the typical jitters on there, people hitting the panic button because we are in that awkward lull period before the fireworks. I'm still holding strong over here and am truly excited for the possibilities of what's to come, with these upcoming catalysts. Hope all is well gents, happy trading and BOL. Waffles
I hated being right about that haha. Saw a good mention that perhaps the MDGL buyout is happening slow bc big pharma may want to see Viking’s results before a MDGL buyout. Why pay $6 bil for MDGL now, if our drug is maybe bout to blow them out of the water. There’s certainly room for 2 drugs though in such a big untapped market. Food for thought. Can’t believe we are 3-4 months from 2809 results. We’ve waited this long, another 3-4 months is cake. Cheers buddy, hope all is well!
Hey buddy, I think I was making a few different points that I didn't express well. I got my computer out so I can type some of it out. So I went back and took a look at how long it took them to put out the data from the phase 2 of 5211. They completed enrollment of 5211 on July 12 2017. It was only a 12 week study, so they would have gotten the last bit of their data around Oct 12 2017. They reported the topline data then Nov 28 2017. It took them 8 weeks (7 weeks and 6 days technically) to report the topline after data was fully available. Disclaimer being that they did say that they had some trouble getting some of the DXA data compiled, that may have been unique to that trial and wouldn't hold us up with 2809.
So using a similar timetable, our observation time period (where data is still being collected I believe) for 2809 ends on Sept 25. If we had to wait 8 weeks for the topline data, that would put data somewhere around Nov 20 2018 for vk2809.
Here are the two unrelated thoughts I was putting across. So they will present the full data set for 5211 on Sept 30. They will technically have all of the data for vk2809 at that time... I mean it won't be super organized and everything, but they will have it all. I think that this is really genius timing on their part. I think that it's at least possible (totally guessing here) that they will want to know how good their vk2809 data is, before they make a final decision on how to proceed in partnering 5211. It would technically effect buyout considerations as well, having all the data from both trials. For that reason, I am scratching my head wondering if possibly we won't hear anything about 5211 partnership until at least around the time of the sept 30 conference. If they are sitting on two blockbuster drugs, with data readily available, buyout may seem like a more reasonable venue to go down. Partnering on 5211 before they have 2809 data may impact bigger companies abilities to move through buyout, etc. I also wonder if that's why they registered this massive shelf, wondering if maybe their goal isn't buyout? All just guesses.
So my unrelated ramblings about the options... So don't get me wrong, I'm not in a hurry to part with my shares, and I still have a relatively large position. But I have been eyeing the Nov $20 calls (and the $22.5 and the $25's as well). I mean, it's stupid to sell covered calls if they get bought out before they expire lol. But I don't think that they would actually sell the company before they technically announce the 2809 topline data. I just think that it's gonna be a really close call... what happens first... the Nov call options expiring, or the 2809 topline data being released. I mean it's gonna be real close in my opinion. On the clinicaltrials.gov website, I believe they might even list December as the release date anticipation. What I have been thinking about doing, is selling some Nov $20 and up strike price covered calls, and using the money that I make by selling them, to buy more VKTX stock. I wouldn't sell those covered calls though, until late sept or early october... because I think they may go up in price between now and then, with sept 30 conference data coming, and a potential MDGL buyout happening (if not sooner, maybe before then). So after these things boost the price, I just wonder how much higher than $20 we could possibly get in stock price, without actually knowing that the 2809 data is good (2809 data being released). And as a technical piece, when I have been selling covered calls these past few months, I used the money to buy VKTXW. For whatever reason, VKTXW is trading at face value and their is really no time premium being charged, so it makes no sense (to me at least) to buy VKTX, when you can buy VKTXW for the inherent value.
I'm not giving investment advice, and have no clue how all this will play out. All just my ramblings and thoughts, don't do what I do lol. Standard disclaimers on doing your own DD etc to everyone on here!
Hope all is well buddy. And yeah, I am equally intrigued by the MDGL buyout rumors. That spanish site seems like junk and has a history of bad calls, but this could be real. I mean, MDGL said they were entertaining talks awhile back, and this stuff takes awhile, but not too long. And anyone who is gonna buy them, is probably gonna want to buy them long before they have to meet with the FDA to discuss phase 3 designs, so the timing seems reasonable on this rumor, even if the site doesn't seem as reputable.
Anyone, just wanted to check in and say hello to all the fellow longs, and keep an intellectual discussion going. I never dreamed that all of this stuff would be setting up this well, when I first got into this stock. The timing on all of these catalysts, and MDGL's uncanny success to date, has been outrageous. August conference call, Sept 30 5211 data, potential 5211 partner at some point (maybe, who knows), and 2809 data within 1-2 months possibly after 5211 data. There is really no lull in there. Especially when considering their other pipeline stuff (which will probably have zero effect on share price with this big stuff looming, but who knows). And also news approaching from GTXI. It's like the perfect storm imho.
Glad to share the ride with everyone, hope all is well. Wishing everyone an enjoyable rest of the summer, take care all
Greetings guys. Figured I would post some food for thought, to occupy the mind during times of short manipulation and typical games seen before big stuff.
So 2809 enrollment completed June 5th (at least that’s when I market it in my phone). So they began dosing the last patient on June 5. Per clinicaltrials.gov, the trial is 12 weeks of dosing, followed by 4 weeks of observation.
12 week dosing complete Aug 28 for last patient. 4 weeks of following observation complete then for last patient Sept 25. Coincidentally that coincides almost exactly with the conference they will present the full data for 5211 (they present VK5211 full data Sept 30th per recent PR).
So the Nov call options are trading with the biggest premium, and expire about 7.5 weeks after the obs period is over. That’s going to cut it close (for Viking at least, they are traditionally a little slow (?meticulous)) with data releases. So obviously not now, but maybe in the next month or two when one of these catalysts hits, perhaps around Mid to late sept, there may be a chance to sell Nov covered calls during those times, to gamble maximally on whether their data will follow a pattern of traditionally being released a little slow.
An alternative viewpoint, and more food for thought... it’s ‘perhaps’ not coincidence that they chose to present full 5211 data sets at the exact time when they will have all the meaningful data available for 5809. It’s genius actually. They may be waiting to ship a real partner deal for 5211, to see how strong their lipid data is first. So they will get huge publicity from 5211 and shop partners in the window after presenting the full data set, knowing then exactly what they are sitting on with 5809.
Based on this, I don’t know that the upcoming Aug conf call may be all that meaningful, but who knows.
Based on all this, I am likely gonna add to my position during this short manipulation period, knowing that I can gamble/derisk whatever I add by selling some covered calls against it during the Sept run up catalyst period, and possibly keep all of it as profit if I sell the calls at the right time, and 5809 data comes after the Nov calls expire.
Thinking about market psychology seems more productive at this point than buying into the nonsense being spewed by SA authors.
Best of luck friends, see you on the other side haha
Greetings... haven’t been on here much. All this stuff is just my own guesses and opinions (standard disclaimer!), as always please do your own DD. So there truly isn’t a lot put out by Viking on the ALT stuff, nor have they ever indicated a need to put out more. They seemed satisfied to cut max dose, and to express that ALT was only thing involved, and really never got (or stayed) That much elevated. The trial was phase 1, 14 days of dosing, and they saw the mean (add all the ALT levels together and divide up and get an average) - so a mean increase in ALT levels that was dose dependent. Imho not a limiting thing based on the data available, based on the limited stuff they had from 14 days of dosing. So the more they gave, the higher the average ALT. They said the highest was in the 40 mg dosing (not being used in phase 2), ALT only (no mention that AST or alk phos or bili going up) with the highest being ALT of 1.5 times the ULN (upper limit of normal) in the 40 mg group. They don’t say if 1.5x ULN was the average they got in that group, or the highest they saw. I’m assuming it may have been highest seen, but unsure on that one, and neither to me is really that scary at this time while waiting on much better and longer data sets.
I could talk about this stuff for a really long time from a lot of angles, but it’s just too hard to guess. A lot of drugs that do stuff involving the liver can transiently (briefly) raise LFT’s... which makes us look closely and make sure it’s not getting out of control. A good example would be Hepatitis C treatment drugs. We know that our drug likely shall (continue to) provide massive lowering of liver fat, really quickly (based on only 14 days of dosing the results were substantial in lowering fat in that same ph 1 trial).
I could provide a lot of analogies on like was it too much too fast and the mechanism involved is contributing vs other pathophys angles, or is it necessarily an awful thing in clinical context, etc, but who knows at this time. Either way, they likely realized they didn’t need that huge of a dose based on how well it worked after 14 days, and was overkill. So the doses they subsequently picked seemed reasonable for ph 2. Is it something where LFT’s will naturally normalize regardless as the fat burden resolves and ongoing inflammation ebbs, who knows. Is it likely to cause ongoing damage after the drug is gone... that would be really unexpected based on what we know and other data etc, but that’s why the post dosing monitoring period with the phase 2 is so helpful with our current ph 2. So in our case, it’s this weird thing where we have a drug that we originally found to do something really really well... and phase 2 becomes just as much about finding the sweet spot dose, and assessing longer term tolerability. 1.5 times the upper limit of normal ALT-only (there are several liver markers) elevations at highest dosing with overkill efficacy would surprise me if it kept us from market, but anything is possible if new stuff is revealed, so it’s not like some 100% guaranteed nothing... no drug ever is at this stage of course. And I’m not bragging here in saying that our drug seems to be more potent and effective vs MDGL based on phase 1’s. If we jacked up the MDGL dose to huge comparative levels to hit a 40 mg equivalent dose of 2809, would we see LFT increase similarly... as a betting man, I’d say there’s a reasonable chance. Several things could make it not happen, but beyond the scope.
Anyways, they didn’t terminate the current trial early... and dosing is being finished. This seems to suggest to my betting man’s brain that there was less likely to be found some cumulative additive dose ALT thing. That’s the type of thing that leads trials to be altered and higher dose arms to be eliminated. So yeah, we may see a transient something etc, or may see it briefly and then gone, or whatever.
I am typing on my phone (as usual), and really hate going into long winded wild scenario guesses and postulations and spelling it all out in this format. So I guess I will just give you my short story version. I’m willing to continue my bet based upon all the scenarios I can create, and the MDGL competition implications. Even if stuff was there, I still think it will place an equal amount of scrutiny on MDGL... and end up in both of our drugs getting to phase 3’s based on what I continue to view as a reasonable and likely tolerable risk benefit setup. If our stuff shows more ALT stuff than before, or a longer term dosing concern, the FDA might make MDGL do a higher dosing arm or put them through more scrutiny too, it’s not like we have to automatically lose, if you get my drift. It would be hard for this stuff, if still there, with a trial that has been allowed to complete, to sink us at a phase 2 to phase 3 transition point. Buyer beware, anything’s possible. My bet is that this trial, if it shows even identical profile to phase 1... which was pretty great in My Opinion, will get us to phase 3. Now anything’s possible. When u talk transplants and no effective available treatments at the moment, the talk is generally about SAE’s, that would keep us from phase 3.
If you have specific what-if scenarios, I don’t mind delving deeper, but I don’t want to overwhelm with 20 different what-ifs. Once we get the actual data, I will explain a lot more, and really hash out clinical implication possibilities, if the need arises. So I guess I can only say that I am holding, and I personally find this situation a tolerable unknown for me, based on my working knowledge and the risks benefits we currently know.
If you google the list of FDA approved drugs that require liver cautions and monitoring, it would blow your mind. It’s impossible to keep up with clinically, and growing all the time... internet drug interaction checkers and monitoring recc guidance checkers are the new norm in medicine, for reasons like this... not fda denials. Denials lately have been reserved for toxic drugs and drugs with proveable and unavoidable pathophys flaws that make them worse than getting no treatment, or the current standard. The current standard remains... no available treatments, and the nash market seems to be growing by the day, given our country’s fast food lovin ways. The 3 month follow-up data is really what I’ll care about, and seeing how quickly the ALT normalizes. Statins are pretty nasty drugs imho, we aren’t competing against angels, nash aside. In fact, I think that we are most appealing in buyout situations to statin makers. Statins are going the way of the dinosaur lately, losing their luster imho. Having a statin alternative with a potentially tolerable side effect profile would boost any of the statins existing marketing channels and shoot some steroids (sarms lol- joke!) into what is quickly becoming a difficult marketing dept for a lot of these companies that are unable to differentiate themselves... let alone the combo drug combinations they could potentially one day spin off to make their toxic statins more palatable to currently weary patients and doctors.
To all the longs, friends, fellow Vikings, hope all is well. What a ride! I’m still clutching tightly to most of my position. We may be rowing to Valhalla in a few months. And Greens... dang... your passion for this company... there was once a time when $10 seemed an impossible dream lol. Now I don’t think I’ll be happy with anything under ___ ??? (who the heck knows). Mostly posting out of respect to longs, and to let all my countrymen know that money hasn’t changed my passion for this company and what we may someday (soon) show the world.
Cheers brothers. I’m moving to Denver next week and have been more than preoccupied with moving etc etc. If data is what I suspect it may be, perhaps... by 2019, a celebration may be in order. Take care all, wishing everyone the very best in life
Checked out the NWBO ticker briefly. You were right about the not for faint of heart lol, but agree that there may be something there. My degrees are really far away from oncology so I make it a point to avoid that realm, but immunogenic stuff is somewhat closer to what I know (hence my IMRN interests), so maybe I’ll take a small dice roll on it. Any catalysts for them approaching aside from the interim data they just put out? Not bad data btw. To keep this on topic, I find it strange that someone continues to sell IMRNW intermittently for under 3.00, especially with the nash market catching fire. I saw a lot of warrant dumping from VKTX prior to planned catalysts and milestones from bigger guys, but really this makes little other sense to me in the setting of IMRN. I’ve been following the Australian ticker more closely and noted the volume uptick yesterday. The multiples and exchange rates are truly amazing on this one. I only hope they stick to the program and take a partner sooner rather than later. I don’t mind holding through their NIH trials, but am a little warrant heavy at this point if that’s what needs to happen. Best of luck
I just packed up for my move out to Denver, my program slides from back then are already out there patiently awaiting me. Honestly glad my brain pulled that one out from long ago haha. The pleasure is all mine bro, this has been a heck of a ride, couldn’t have asked for better company. I’m enjoying a cooler evening on my last days in NC, smoking a cigar and thanking the man upstairs for giving me a little patience and a lot of luck. Cheers brother, take care. Waffles
Hey buddy! Life is good here. And dude, much respect for the histamine thoughts. My mind is (or once was) a steel trap, one of my slightly redeeming qualities, barely makes up for my major flaws lol. I heard a man lecture at a drug addiction degree seminar back in 2012, about the exact concept you discussed, said it might change the world... he was a very smart dude as well. I don’t know if we’ve made any progress in proving or disproving the linkage, mostly because we are just getting to the point in society where they will allow users safe places to inject and monitored environments. Not that I think it’s the way to go, but it gives you a captive audience of sorts, and saves lives and gives a way to study something that is unmeasurable currently. Food for thought... most users overdose when they relapse on heroin after a period of sobriety, even as short as a week or two sober. It’s one of the few things I have to teach those that are forced to listen to me. We have always thought that it’s because the opioid receptors are downregulated quickly and less sensitized to drugs, or that u basically lose your tolerance quick... but the theory u offer, in many ways, fills some gaps in that theory, at least in my mind... or at least gives us a direction to try going. Who knows how bad things will need to get in our world, to stoke the courage to find a way to answer these questions. It’s good to hear from you brother, I hope that Viking is rocking your world like it’s rocked mine. I’m holding relmada until we break out of this channel for a period of time in one direction or another, or news present itself after this lengthy news drought. I took a decent but relatively small overall stake in IMRNW (for 3.00 or less it’s worth a shot in my book), and I solidified a stake in BDSI that I am no longer comfortable adding to at these levels. Take care buddy, best of luck
A toast to you guys on a day such as this. All my stock market dreams have come true, hopefully yours are as well. Greens, Bull, Alex, and all the rest, cheers brothers... exciting times
Hey Greens! There are just so many potential directions to go. I think they are waiting on a partner to direct the main focus and the trial design, and am guessing they will let the FDA guide them with the easiest possible path to getting it to market, and then probably launch a bunch of these ‘niche’ indication trials, to allow for expanded use for other conditions like stress incontinence etc, or at least to give docs a clue that it might have some off label uses. It would be a lot of backtracking and require a lot of proof of concept stuff to approach niche stuff like urinary stress at this stage of the game. I think there are a lot of ‘less bumpy’ roads to FDA clearing the drug itself to some sort of market along the fracture pathways and mobility pathways with healing and debilitation. Long term, the future is bright if they can keep the ball rolling with all these other possible indications, but a lot of road to cover between now and then.
Patiently awaiting MDGL’s data, like all other faithful Viking’s, hoping it gives us a boost that can be followed shortly after by an end of enrollment update. Wishful thinking of course, but time has been flying by, it’s got to come eventually.
Take care buddy
A really excellent synopsis, couldn’t have said it better if I tried. The incredibly low volume traded on this ticker on the asx (IMC.asx) has kept this in check and imho allows for a great buying opp on the US side. I will continue to buy the warrants (IMRNW), as many as I can get at 3.00, and slowly/gently at 3.50 to keep whoever is actually willing to part with them at a 3.50 level selling. It won’t take much volume on the asx side to make them pop huge. I think the small offering after the recent nash news confirmed intentions to partner. With any luck we will have an update within the next 3-4 months, right on the cusp of when we will begin to expect the first of our two (free) NIH trials to result. 500 mil cap seems fair, but realistically I’ll be happy with 250-300 mil, as my initial pivot point to unload a bit (unless Travelan continues on the upward trajectory we have started to see, of course). Travelan sales and increased public awareness of the product will really derail this further in the short term, imho. At a modest 250 mil mkt cap (Australian currency), IMRN would be $50, IMRNW would be $40ish. The exchange rate 1 USD is approx 1.28 AUS dollar, it seems to equate well to the warrant conversion effect and full dilution, so keeping market cap in Australian dollars as a quick equivalent of full dilution and 1:1 US mkt cap seems fair. I appreciate your math and DD on the fully diluted share count. Appreciate your continued posts, best of luck. Anything else you are into?
Great thoughts. I don’t think this movement is more than the work of one entity. Don’t get me wrong I think a few others hopped on board during that first upward push, but at this point it doesn’t appear to be complex movement, very one sided. Whoever moved it knows how easy it is to push the price and could’ve kept going, so I think the recent range held is indicative of accumulation, when factoring in that they let the price slide for a bit to keep buying (making pumping stuff less likely). So I watched this on level II for the past year while it was being kept below 1.00, and it was generally the same entity or 2 keeping it there. I forget the one involved but it was actually easy to predict this upward move... as it occurred within a month of that ask being removed/softened from level II of the main one. I think whoever held it down for the past 6-8 months is whoever is behind this, and I think they have most of their shares or close by now, there just wasn’t anyone selling sub-1.00. Expect we are waiting for them to get few more shares and will move on nothing, or are waiting for Any form of (long overdue imho) positive news, followed by a very large move. Float is really thin. They have a really good pipeline with massive potential imho. It’s a long shot that hasn’t been done by massive pharmas like Reckitt B (now Indivior), but the oral (not sublingual) buprenorphine would be a game changer for addiction and pain management, like not pumping here just stating the obvious from my line of work, but if they could show positive bioequivalence data without increase risk of diversion or misuse from an oral (not sublingual) version, they should theoretically be instantly bought out by a company already in the buprenorphine billion dollar market game, or a pain Mgmt company that is scared of the current opiate selling climate. Everyone scared of the FDA on opiates should be bullish as heck on buprenorphine products. The safety data is phenomenal, and I can say this from intricate working knowledge in fields affiliated, but hey, all just my opinion, so please do your own DD, but anyways I’m optimistic for what’s to come. They have had enough time to allow for a few possible positive events on the horizon. Hopefully not a rise before an offering if they struck out on everything lol, but just doesn’t seem that way based on trading action I’ve seen. Best of luck
You are quite welcome. The good company on the board has kept me strongly invested in this ticker, a win-win given Viking’s continued accomplishments. A big congratulations on the addition to your family! ...truly what life’s all about imho. I’m headed out to Colorado in a month or two, for a busy year of sub-specialty training in a field that’s always fascinated me- life has been equally hectic in my neck of the woods. If Viking does what I’m hoping and expecting it to do in the coming 12 months, a toast would surely be in order! Take care buddy
Nvm I found it searching patent site... thank you for the info!
Link for others to verify...
https://assignment.uspto.gov/patent/index.html#/patent/search/resultAbstract?id=9943597&type=patNum
Thanks for the post, where did you find this info? Thanks again appreciate it
Feel it was smart to raise some cash before the fda meeting just in case the worst case scenario arises. I’m started a position again at .40 after exiting near the recent highs in share price. I don’t think this is a done deal as of yet, at least as long as they are able to continue selling in Mexico and outside the U.S. I’m interested to see what the FDA has to say here and agree I might take a hit. I feel they would have raised more cash if the situation with the FDA were terminal, and suspect they had options to raise more than 5 million or so... perhaps I’ll be proven wrong, it’s happened before. GLTA here
Appears that the tide may again be turning after our long lull. Whoever is accumulating seems to have a bit more urgency this past week or two
Excellent post, thank you. I like your investing approach as well... ASX shares and IMRNW seem to be a good approach until this gets onto the radar for US traders. Thanks again for correct the false info with actual facts
Not to mention that if they secured a presence in China, they could mass produce the disposables there on the cheap through that partner. Margins on disposables are already impressive, but China production capability would further knock them out of the park imho.
Just a waiting game here. A lot of good things could be afoot.
Hey Greens and Bull and all other friends on here. Btw Greens I agree we are headed for good things and there are a lot of catalysts approaching. I am at my day job and sitting on a computer so I am going to type a bit, apologies for a novel here.
A few things to clarify. They have stated that they may release 5211 data when they have it, or they may include it in their abstract for the conference in Sept. I really don't know the rules regarding how long they can wait to release good news, so I am not speaking to that. What I will say is this... if they choose to release at the Sept conference, they must submit their Abstract to the conference by the "Due date for abstract submissions" for that applicable conference. I really feel that there is no way they can send the committee the summary of all their new data (even if it's not all the specific slides and stuff), and not submit it to everyone. They can simply provide an abstract that says what we already know about topline, and put out a PR that they will provide additional at the conference. If the rest of the secondaries are good, at least a tidbit from them would end up in the abstract. So my gut feeling is, that we hear about results on or before the Due date for abstract submissions to that conference. Although it may not work out that way, it's a more likely scenario. Usually it reads like "Viking to submit this new data at this upcoming conference"... it provides a level playing field. Otherwise, if these conference big wigs are given absolutely any tiny piece of new info, they could technically insider trade off it. Hope that makes sense.
OK... as we have shared a long ride, I wanted to share one additional thing with you guys. And I wanted to preface that I am not a pumper of other stocks, so obviously do your own DD. But I thought I could share this and also teach a bit about our approach to NASH in the interim, and possibly make you guys some money if the universe allows it.
So I have been heavily researching NASH lately. Mostly because I got into Viking for 5211, and it is much closer to my areas of expertise than NASH. I will tell you openly and honestly that I am not a NASH investor in general, but am slightly becoming one. NASH is not a single disease entity. A lot of things cause it. NASH standing for "non-alcoholic steatohepatitis" - steato being a root word for "Fat." So really it's just a really fatty liver, and there is 'hepatitis' going on... which simply means that the liver is irritated. So it's a big fatty inflamed liver. A lot of genetic conditions can cause a large buildup of fat in the liver (that's where our orphan indications come in). Also, people have really crappy western diets that are high in fat and get naturally large accumulations of fat in the liver. Well anyways, maybe all this fat is irritating or disrupts the normal synthetic functions of the liver or maybe a co-occurring process with the fat buildup is so irritating... that's where my knowledge stalls a bit, but I get the concept.
Anyways, our play at NASH and MDGL's are basically identical approaches to NASH. Using a synthetic version of one of the breakdown products in the thyroid cascade, to activate the liver to breakdown fat. These drugs work by triggering the breakdown of all the fat that has accumulated. Once the fat burden decreases, we see the liver inflammation decreasing. It's also why dietary models of nash will assumedly (still an assumption and not a proven fact) will respond well to our drug. Obviously our drug and MDGL's are slightly different and will work in slightly different ways, I could speak much more on that, but the jury is out and it will all come out eventually anyways. And I will tell you that many other NASH plays are trying to do the same thing, reducing fat.
So anyways, I found a new stock a little while back. I will tell you a bit about it, and why you could consider diversifying your nash portfolio a bit. Clearly you guys have probably done a bit of NASH research on your own by now, so I don't mind telling you about this, knowing that you have probably already done some NASH legwork.
The stock is IMRN. I found them because they have warrants (go figure, me, warrants?@!). Their warrants are IMRNW. I hold 20% IMRN, 80% IMRNW.
I originally bought Immuron because of their other drugs, not their NASH play. They happened to have recently had a big success in a phase 2 NASH trial though, and most people have no idea about it. It's kind of like VKTX was last year, and to an extent still is, very much under the radar.
IMRN is involved in monoclonal antibodies. A fancy word for saying that they chemically manufacture antibodies to stuff that the body generally doesn't know to make antibodies to, or doesn't make enough antibodies to. The body's immune system figures out something is bad and to remove it in several ways, one of them being if antibodies the body makes binds to it. Once the antibody binds to the substance, the immune cells can attack and remove or break down etc. Check out the concept, worth a look. It's one of the ways that cancer treatment is progressing actually, but cancer is a mess because there isn't usually a standard target to look for, cancer creates mutants of all sorts.
Anyways, they created monoclonal antibodies to C. Diff (bad diarrhea infection, really affects certain populations). Anyways, I really like the concept and their data has thus far looked great. It could still be a big failure in later stage stuff, buyer beware, etc, but right now, it's looking good.
So here's the tie-in. Their NASH drug is a monoclonal antibody. They claim that, just like their C Diff monoclonal antibody, you take the pills, and the antibodies stay in your GI tract, they aren't absorbed. Their monoclonal antibody binds to one of the intermediary products that they think is involved in the NASH inflammation cascade. If you don't understand this concept, look up the inflammatory cascades targeted by Tylenol ;) Same concept, but for liver stuff.
So they found in their *Early Phase 2 trial, that the monoclonal antibody binds to this inflammatory compound that is found in high levels in people struggling with NASH, and allows it to get targeted and removed. For whatever reason, this NASH inflammation target is found in the gut, and hence their drug can get to it (because they claim their drug otherwise doesn't leave the GI tract). Anyways, so it binds to it and allows it to get removed. And once that happens, they have shown that liver function tests (LFT's) go Down, and other NASH inflammatory markers go Down.
So this is a totally different NASH play. Our play is to reduce all the fat so the inflammation goes down. Theirs is like a Tylenol pill for your liver. It does Nothing to the amount of liver fat... but it decreases LFT's and inflammatory markers in NASH, potentially by targeting that intermediary that is found in the gut. What it means though, is that their drug could be used with ANY other drug that would treat NASH potentially, synergistically... that their drug could be like a liver protective drug, to reduce liver inflammation. Keep in mind, it wouldn't fix NASH all on it's own probably, you would need a drug like ours. It also means that IMRN's drug might help people that have liver inflammation going on for like a million other reasons, like viral hepatitis, alcoholic hepatitis, etc.
So here's why I like IMRN. They have no market cap (partially because they are an Australian company and early phase). They offer warrants that are FAIRLY valued currently that allow you to risk less overall and see huge reward, just like us with VKTXW. They have TWO separate Phase 2 trials that are funded by the NIH... both of which are due to report results in the next year. First one is Q4 for adults I believe with alcoholic hepatitis. Second one is ? Q1 for Pediatric patients with some form of liver stuff. I haven't seen too many pediatric studies out there for NASH. This says a lot to me. Not only that, but they currently, (*just like us) have not found any SAE's or known significant side effects... because their drug otherwise doesn't enter the body, so they claim as the reason.
I entered a small position and am excited by this. More than that, I feel that they are likely to partner for their NASH drug or enter the next phase of C Diff progression Well Before their free NIH trials are due in Q4. So I think that you may never need to hold this thing until Q1'18 with the pediatric stuff, and that there are a bunch of catalysts possible well before that. Their cap is like $50 mil. If they decide to partner (which they may do, they passed on doing a big offering recently after news and did a 5 mil offering to ? buy time)- partnering could get them to a $100-150 mil market cap imho. IMRN trading around 3-4.00. Current price of IMRN 12.00. IMRNW exercise price is 10.00. If you do the math, you will see that if they go to a measly $100 mil cap, you could make almost 300% on IMRNW.
Again, super speculative, but not many NASH players out their with such low caps. Consider a tiny position in IMRNW if you have any cash to spare. It goes without saying, but if VKTX does as well as I feel it may do coming up, you guys may never hear from me again lol. So while I toil away here at my day job, I figured I would share a little with you guys. VKTX has treated me well, but I am going for the big score. Maybe I'm wrong, but VKTX still feels right.
VKTX remains insanely undervalued and I feel that the rest of this year will hopefully hold wonderful things for us.
Good luck friends,
Waffles
I think a $200 mil cap would be very fair given that other nash plays are much more valued even than that. We have to assume that partner or a decent funding deal is coming. Can’t really predict a share price until we know which way they go. A dilutive approach may keep us where we are or up to $20 until q4 when the other trials are due. A partner approach could get us to the $200 mil cap quickly, which would put us at $40-$60 ranges.
Another thought on bone and joint franchises. That could mean to me either the bisphosphonate and osteoporosis crowd (hopefully not as those products have floundered a bit), those you mentioned, or maybe bone and joint companies that already work in the hip repair or fracture repair space. Seems like one stop shopping if a rep could sell you some hardware along with recommending this. Depends if they are talking about starting this in the hospital or at followup or preventative, like where it would fit best, primary care or ortho. It’s a drug that could check a lot of boxes in different fields of the bone changes after fracture ever show anything promising or the mortality rate goes down and they figure out why.
Exciting times. I think people are too focused on nash right now and are missing something good sitting right in front of them, just because something ‘better’ might be coming. I just read an interesting article about some other companies approach to nash that looked good. A drug that acts on bile synthesis I think. We know so much about the thyroid and it’s effects in excesses and in low thyroid state. I think our approach to finding a nash drug may be a little less risky. I don’t think anyone knows what a ton of bile acid secretion like state will do to a man, but many know intimately what a ton of various thyroid hormones can do to ya. Anyways, all new tech, but I really feel like our nash technology is possible imho a less risky bet. Anyways, all just my 2 cents, and I’m probably wrong, etc etc. BOL all.
Have a good week all!
If they raised money above $25.00 I am gonna cr@p myself at work tomorrow! :) GLTA
Lol lutiva. Viva Lutiva! The best news will be a confirmation of the 100 mil o/s. When that gets confirmed in writing I’ll add another 500K shares.
Hey buddy,
Been away from the board a bit. Pullback seems somewhat natural, I’d be a bit alarmed if we immediately rose incredibly high before the real data endpoints that are coming up like the secondary data for 5211. They’ve given us a modest increase in valuation, while the jury is out on the rest of our data. It gives us a lot of room to run on real news, especially because the float has been drying up. I may be wrong but the trading pattern this week feels like someone is accumulating.
The offering was at $5 and seemed to have some real interest. I would be shocked if the offering was truly multiple times oversubscribed allegedly, and suddenly there was no buying interest in the 5.50’s. I don’t think it could easily be pushed below 5 given that, so this is the closest someone can get it to load?
I looked into the nash recruiting process more and it seems more like an issue that most of these patients they are looking for, don’t actually know they have nash, and there are no treatment options available and hence. I reason why anyone who found out they had this would actually seek treatment. No approved drugs means no fancy public education commercial campaigns funded by the joy that is big pharma. And because there has never been a treatment for it, nobody really looks, doc wise. True by the way, I can attest to that principle. And when you exclude diabetics, you get rid of a lot of people who are easier to incidentally find nash in. Diabetics get a lot of testing done on them for various reasons. Diabetics also get way more complications in general and can be harder to treat in multiple settings for a wide scope of reasons. Excluding diabetics likely added all the time, but is a necessary evil to get best possible outcomes. We endeavor to treat the purest form of nash imho, and people with genetic variants that predispose to various breeds of high cholesterol states. I am eluding to but not explaining or addressing that the pathophys of nash is likely a bit different in diabetics, a side endeavor I don’t really want to dwell on. Every company can recruit as quick or slow as they choose, and pay more or less for how quickly it can be done.
You hit the nail on the head. There aren’t that many true bone and joint franchises. A company that is desperate for a partner usually wouldn’t proclaim that they were seeking a rarer breed of partner like a bone and joint franchise, they’d take what they could get and not prematurely close a door to potential suitors lol. They are either that overconfident, or they have already had most of the prelim talks with various potential partners in diff industries, and this is a later stage understanding of who they plan to move forward with. They’ve had many years to ponder their plan of attack, I think this is gonna exceed expectations, maybe.
I don’t know if they are required to release the secondary data as soon as available like other data, I would assume so... which makes me think that they booked all these conferences this month to get a timely crack at releasing. I’m probably wrong on that one, but here’s to dreaming.
I think they Have Been holding out as long as possible to partner. The extra round of financing likely was the catalyst for the partner talks to actually begin in earnest. They had to show everyone they weren’t desperate and dying for the cash, for the real deals to come in. Showing big pharma that you can raise 50 million bucks and keep your share price up in the process, means that companies can no longer show up offering you 50 million bucks ;)
When the rest of the 5211 data is allowed to be released, they’ll probably go to all the conferences, show everyone, wait a few extra weeks to see who bites on a deal, and then announce. Either that, or get a quick or final offer they can’t refuse, depending on how active they have been in negotiations thus far.
I’m optimistic and doubled down a little during the recent pullback. We will have secondary data soon enough and it will be the short term game changer, depending on what it looks like and how it gets spun.
Happy trading buddy and a big hello to all the other longs,
Waffles
Nice to see some life here again. I believe that the product has yet to be given the chance to perform against the status quo, at least in the fda’s eyes. Correct me if I’m wrong, but needing to prove noninferiority vs pap etc treatment as usual. A lot of overseas potential regardless, could start a snowball rolling. Anyways, remaining patient for a few months. Float is way too low for r/s imho on which I cite my comfort level in holding. Historically not Always a slow news company, luckily. Good luck to everyone
Great question. Honestly no idea on the partner... they’ve talked about partnering a few times in the past. I don’t think they would have done the offering if they planned to immediately partner after 5211 data. I know ‘take money when u can get it’ is a tenant of the biotech world... but if they had a slam dunk offer they planned to take, the offering wouldnt be well timed (or necessary, most likely). Unless someone gives them an offer they can’t refuse, or already gave them one contingent on certain remaining phase 2 stuff, i think they will release the rest of their phase 2 stuff, and then start publishing the results in journals and conferences and shopping the data. Time is their friend. I think they will get a bigger premium on 5211 if they wait until after nash results, for a lot of reasons that are probably beyond what I can sum up at this very moment.
In the back of my mind, I am hoping that they announce lipid phase two topline results First, and then decide which drug gets them a better partner deal, and take it. They could then go one drug alone, with a ton of cash. If they didn’t immediately partner after 5211 and the nash data was good, it would make them much more likely to be a realistic buyout target, adding in a 5211 partner muddies a buyout situation, which I really think is the ultimate goal.
Nash drugs are dropping like flies. But The statin making companies would drop like flies if our nash drug is half as good as the phase 1 lipid lowering data looked like, barring unforeseen side effects of course. But hey, we are so close to data now. You always worry in early or mid trial that a drug trial will get halted if strange stuff happens medically. But we are like at the finish line. Odds of some awful side effect emerging become a little less imho, the longer the trial is allowed to continue. so I *expect (imho) to see nothing awful as we wait for these final patients to finish the primary endpoint stuff. They are constantly enrolling and so people finish the trial in piecemeal fashion. Kinda like various groups of runners starting a marathon at staggered times.
Statin making companies have a lot of cash after all these years of people being stuck on statins. Statins aren’t necessarily viewed as the fix-all that they once were thought to be, they are sometimes hard on the muscles and liver in certain cases and make some people feel like crap (imho). Used to be that anyone with any kind of cardiac anything going on, hand them a statin.
Easier to buy VKTX out than MDGL, especially if 5211 could be utilized in any fashion by the buyer.
It’s still just wishful thinking, but I have high hopes that our nash data will Continue to show the large magnitude of effect it showed in phase 1’s. If phase 2 nash is even close to phase 1, this thing might go to the moon. If our lipid lowering effects are better than MDGL, the value gap may finally close, once and for all.
I’m just hoping that they don’t make us wait on the lipid data. 1H18 better mean 1H18 :) I’m a patient man, but come on, throw us a bone here and hit a home run in a timely manner haha.
I’m just as excited as I was in the beginning, no matter how fast our price has moved in the direction of a fair valuation... hoping they give us a few breadcrumbs at the conference call coming up.
Take care brother, best wishes to the rest
Helloooo NASDAQ! Good times ahead
Oh and in case I wasn’t super clear, you can buy and sell the warrants just like you buy and sell the shares. They don’t expire until 2021... forever away, so no urgency to holding them and worrying about exercising them or selling for the best price.
Also keep in mind that if the stock does well and people begin again to pay premiums for the warrants (especially as more people cash in the warrants for shares and they become harder to find - there were originally 11 million of them or so?) ... you will make even more money than you would have buying the regular stock, because you make money for the share price going up, and you make whatever money you are able to get on top of that for the value of time that people are again willing to pay (generally around .15-.30).
I have never had any difficulty selling the warrants for At Least what they are inherently worth, except momentarily when the price really skyrockets and people want to watch and wait before buying and they aren’t that liquid to have like continuously updated pricing reflected in the volumes being traded. So if the stock goes up .20, I am probably gettin my .20 profit if I wanna sell it, no problem. If the price shoots up .80, I might be lucky to get .60 of that if I panic sell. If I wait an hour or two and the price levels out in that range, I’ll probably get the full .80 profit if I sell the warrant, or very close to it.
Put VKTXW in your watch list next to VKTX and start watching both prices simultaneously, it will quickly make a ton of sense...
Btw Greens and Bull and Alex...
What a run!!!
I literally can’t wait to see who they partner with for the SARM. Their lack of need for cash and having Ligand in the wings with such deep pockets... someone is gonna be forced to pay a hefty premium to partner with us... which I feel that many companies will gladly do.
Not too many entirely new molecule classes out there with promising data and this kind of unmet need.
I’m staying put with my position, until someone claws the shares from my cold dead hands... or unforeseen factors arise.
Happy trading all and enjoy the weekend!
So the warrants are basically just a derivative. If you are familiar with options trading, this will be very simple to understand.
1 warrant = 1 VKTXW
1 VKTXW = the right to buy 1 share of VKTX for 1.50 on OR anytime before ?may of 2021.
For whatever reason (people’s ignorance is my guess), the warrants are trading at face value. Why anyone would purchase a share of VKTX instead of a share of VKTWX at this point is beyond me... but I digress, and it’s just my opinion.
So here’s how your example would work...
Buy 100 shares of VKTX at 6.5 = $650
Or
Buy 100 shares of VKTXW at 5 = $500
A few possibilities and the math...
Share price goes to $10
100 shares of VKTX now worth $1000
Profit = $1000 - $650 = $350
Profit = 1000/650 = 1.53 = made 53% on your money
If people still unwilling to pay any premium for time, and warrants trading at face value (or liquidity prevents you from selling them at fair value and you have to exercise them to get the shares which you sell after you receive them (takes 3-5 business days to get them, from E*TRADE at least in my experience))...
100 shares of VKTXW now with inherently worth $8.50 (10.00-1.50 exercise cost)
So 100 shares of VKTXW = $850
Profit = $850 - $500 = $350
Profit = 850/500 = 1.7 = made 70% on your money
So you see that you will make exactly the same profit by buying the same amount of one or another, but the profit will be a larger percentage on the money you invested.
Also, what people fail to grasp, is this...
If I know I want to invest $1000 in Viking...
I can get 153 shares of VKTX at 6.5 per share...
Or I can buy VKTXW,
I get 200 shares of VKTXW at 5.0 per share
So take the same example...
Invest $1000 in Viking at current prices...
VKTX = 1000/6.5 = 153 shares VKTX
VKTXW = 1000/5 = 200 shares VKTXW
Price of Viking goes to $10
VKTX = 153 x 10.00 = $1530
Made 530.00 on my $1000
VKTXW = 200 x 8.5 = $1700
Made 700.00 on my $1000
See the profit ratios preserved, for this example.
So the limitations of warrants...
Less liquidity... price moves up real fast and you want to sell, people may not want to instantly pay the inherent move in the price. If you day trade or have a habit of panic selling during times of profitability, this may not be for you.
Say it’s 2021 and the stock has done awful... if the stock is worth anything less than 1.50, your warrants will expire worthless.
Anything above 1.50, and you can just request the shares, pay the 1.50 for them, and either sell them for the profit difference or just hold onto them.
For me though, that isn’t a negative at these price levels. Because the warrants cost less, it also limits my loss imho if the stock turns to junk, which seems unlikely, but hey, anything is possible.
If I buy the stock for 6.5 and it goes to $1, and I going to be any less upset than if I bought a warrant for 5.00 and it is now worth $0...
Epic failure is epic failure...
So the warrants, as long as people continue to be willing to sell them for what they are inherently worth and not charge extra for the value of time, allows me to amplify the earnings on my total amount invested, which I will gladly trade for reduced liquidity.
If you love to day trade, you could consider adding some warrants as a long position, to supplement the regular shares you day trade.
Keep in mind, as long as the warrants keep trading for what they are inherently worth, you will increase the magnitude of your earnings vs buying the shares, the lower the price of the stock.
Once people stop being spooked by how quickly this stock has risen, the warrants will likely again start paying a little bit of a time premium. If our data coming up is really good, people will claw for any shares they can get, and will be more willing to pay more for the warrants which is the same as basically buying yourself a share, knowing that they are paying less than the share costs anyways, and that they will overall make more percentage on their investment if the stock keeps going up.
Hope you like math ;)
If all this is above your head, at least I tried!
Consider this my good deed for the month. The fewer people that know all this, the tighter my monopoly remains of trading all this stuff :) muahahaha.
Waffles
You know of a better place to have your money currently? Float beginning to dry up with all this recent institutional interest. Others have noticed and will buy once they see this hold a level for a period. A lot in the works here, and still a huge disproportionate value gap from MDGL. Let alone, what may transpire if our data looks better than MDGL, which imho is expected to occur based on earlier phase stuff we have available. Every now and then you just gotta go for it I suppose. I thought about taking more profit, but to be honest, this kind of play just doesn’t come around more than every few years. I’d rather lose it here, than lose it on the other junk out there.
Likely just bc we are still waiting on data. Regardless will become a different conversation when they have data in hand from upcoming lipid/nash drug. And we still technically get the secondaries of the sarm at some point, there may be some real gems in that stuff, regardless of levels of statistical significance... stuff that will help to define phase 3 and indication stuff and population sizes etc of treatable folks. Anyways, lipid data will remove the need for analysts in the short term... positive lipid data comparable to mdgl would make it pretty easy for most people to then connect the dots, correlate 1:1 our data to the mdgl data, and draw a value comparison... Our valuations now generally build in various percentages of chance that trial x or y or z will fail etc. I think if you gave the analyst a hypothetical “if VKTX upcoming phase 2 showed results in line with mdgl (not even better, which is possible like anything else)- what would be your target price...”. Then I think it would be numbers we would relate to. I’m not a stockbroker by trade. But this offering was exactly what was needed imho. No joke. But my guess is, that when people start throwing 55 million at your company without new data being available, your brand is possibly finally catching on ? maybe. Usually it takes great news to get a deal like that. Somebody bought our cow without waiting to taste the milk. Anyways, more and bigger fish in the game now, we may see a fair valuation sooner than we thought. Friday volume was something totally new. I think the price will need to be 1-2 dollars higher at least to make the option trading more logical and profitable, so I’m assuming we sit between possibly 7 and 8’s until real news. All just wild guesses. If the secondary data is kind on the sarm and we are even marginal or better on lipid stuff, I’d want 12.00 for my shares, given our strongly strengthened financial position and the terms on which they would be able to negotiate on partnering deals. But again, these are old calculations, based on the world of Viking before the massive volume day and financial security we just got. I’d love to see a partner deal or two and then to see the company focus its remaining abilities on bringing the rest of the pipeline on-line, and letting a bigger partner shoulder the phase 3 dance with the fda. Wouldn’t care if they went alone either, but they clearly have been capable of success in early phase trials, and this later stage stuff will be time and money consuming to someone. If partner occurs on decent terms for either compound, the sky is the limit perhaps.
Here’s to dreaming buddy!
Practically neighbors rocket, I’m about an hour and a half outside of charlotte... small world. Enjoying a day at home inside from this winter weather. Take care and happy trading buddy
Hey Greens! So my broker has begun to allow options trading for VKTX... today was the first day it would let me execute anything. Just tested to see if it works... much too soon to do more than that lol. I may start selling a few covered calls to pass the time, as our data gets close and word of our pending trial results spread. Been expecting a little dip in the stock, we are in that lull between trials. Getting excited for the rest of the secondary data on the sarm trial, hopefully not too long to wait... Lots of early pipeline stuff reported before the sarm data... man it would’ve been nice now lol. That being said, the other earlier pipeline stuff will eventually resurface, I suppose when the timing is right. They’ve been good about spacing news and preventing long term news blackouts, as other companies often do. Waiting patiently over here...
Currently in NC. Was an ER doc in my ‘past life’ ... bout 8 years total as a full timer... still work a shift every now and then to keep my skills up, more of a novelty at this point in my career. You can imagine how many broken hips I’ve seen on frail elderly folks... Got a little bored and tired of the rat race, went back and trained psychiatry, additionally got the certs to run drug and alcohol centers, currently focused on forensic work. I’m a bit of a nomad, my resume is, umm, unique. Hence my preferred niche(s) in the stock market realm- acute pain mgmt, opiates and pain meds of all sorts/short and long term, psychoactive drugs including ketamine and nmda receptor stuff, and of course, all drugs of abuse lol- especially what’s going on currently in Canada and California. I ended up here as I used to be bigger into weight lifting and knew lots of buddies that were drawn into the testosterone realm, including a few friends that run ‘wellness clinics’ currently... and because psych people look for thyroid problems more than others might guess, which prompted me to solidify a lot of stuff I only knew half the story on in my ER life.
Have a good week buddy, take care
Hey Greens! Life has been keeping me busy. Thought I would discuss the SA article real quick. I'm actually at a computer so I can actually type some stuff out- it's a novel. They said that in earlier stuff MDGL's drug increased ALT level up to 40, "suggesting injury to the liver." I believe that's what your question is directed towards.
So I was a little surprised to see that the writer was long on VKTX. And I do think he tried to present it unbiased. Hey, in my book, any press is good press, as we are still mostly unknown. But I think that he made the whole issue much more complicated than it really is. He was too proud to figure out what could be summed up as "we don't know X... Y... Z... etc... and so he made some guesses, and a few weird ones at that. He tried to use a bunch of science to say things that can be easily said. And sad to say, but aside from the stuff that he probably cut and paste directly from biochem books and trial discussions, he added absolutely nothing. Which is fine, but I think he didn't do a good job of organizing the delivery of data, and keeping separate what the old drugs did vs. what our new class of beta receptors Have done thus far. I'm assuming it was somewhat difficult for most folks to keep straight- which I suspect was the real goal. Nothing scares people more than a bunch of science with scary potential bad things that have not happened yet in phase 1 or phase 2... but maybe in a longer phase 3 lol.
Was very hard for him to keep separate---
1. The known side effects of thyroid receptor activators that were developed a long time ago that failed (with the reason being that most of them activate other sites or have too much thyroid alpha receptor activation)
vs...
2. Explaining that we are trying to avoid all of those things with this new class of molecule, and that trials to date haven't shown the rate limiting stuff we saw in the failed drugs, but we don't know for sure if they might show up to some extent.
Because really what we have here... is a drug that has yet to show any major or rate limiting side effect. So what does he do... he gives the entire history of why all the other thyroid drugs have failed... yet he never brings it full circle and explains that so far, everything has looked good. And he makes it seem like we found this drug on accident and not that they have been developing it for years and the earlier pipeline stuff that is coming.
So MDGL's drug supposedly raised ALT to "40" range in the trial. And MDGL supposedly went to lengths to avoid enrolling patients who might have liver issues due to other reasons.
Not a big deal in my book, for a lot of reasons. So, there are a a few liver markers that we check in medicine, but the biggest two we look at are the ALT and AST. Every lab is a little different with normal ranges, but usually 40 is just a tiny bit up... I see drinkers occasionally with 200-300 liver tests... people with acute hepatitis have liver tests sometimes in the thousands. To give you an idea, when I see people that are decent drinkers, have hepatitis c, take too much Tylenol on a regular basis, etc etc etc... their ALT is generally much higher than 40. In fact, I don't usually bat an eye at an ALT of 40 when I see it. I would tell the patient 'hey your one liver test is a tiny bit up, get it rechecked... and view it as a red herring... ie... having nothing to do with why they were there, the vast majority of the time. Now keep in mind, I'm not a family doc... if I was, I would recheck that ALT a couple more times over time, and if it stays up just a little bit (which 40 is just a little bit in my book), then you need to figure out what is doing it... ie... cut out the Tylenol, avoid certain herbal supplements, etc etc etc. The list of drugs that are hard on the liver... much harder than an isolated ALT of 40 when used in moderation... oh my... I wouldn't have enough space in this novel haha.
So here's my argument with the entire SA piece. Misses the forest through the trees, every time with them. Do they have any freakin' clue what we are doing here with this drug!? They are literally trying to prevent LIVER TRANSPLANTS and to reduce long term scarring and inflammation associated with NASH. For perspective... say our drug is kinda harmful to the liver... it would have to be pretty darn harmful to stop it from being considered for use. Because say it's harmful. If I had a drug that MINIMALLY ELEVATED Liver Function Testing that I would be using for a little while to treat and reduce the fat burden and chronic inflammation of NASH that leads to a transplant, I would prescribe the heck out of it. We do it all the time, the same exact thing. Look at all those Hepatitis C drugs. You deal with a lot of short term side effects, to get a lot of progress on a bad disease. It wouldn't be rate limiting. And it is going to take forever to prove MDGL's drug would even be causing the ALT elevation. These are NASH patients... NASH is a heterogenous disease... it's like a fever... lots of things can cause your temperature to be elevated. Not all of these people have the same cause of NASH... a lot of them are diet, but some of them have some weird genetic stuff going on- that can raise liver tests under different circumstances. Hence the need for phase 3 to make get a little better idea that it doesn't happen to everyone... and that it returns to normal awhile after you finish the drug, etc etc, common stuff.
So again, this stuff, to me... if that's the worst they got to throw at our class of molecule, we're doing something right.
I also objected greatly to the writer basically stating that these drugs MIGHT give you symptoms of LOW thyroid, might give you symptoms of HIGH thyroid. And then like selectively listing some of them off... like saying that people with high thyroid are at increased risk for blood clots- RANDOM. As a doc... let me tell you how many times I've found high thyroid... and thought... gee... maybe they have a blood clot caused by high thyroid. ZERO. Now the real deal, is that people who get high thyroid are a lot more likely to have underlying cancer... which will give you a blood clot. So give me a break dude. I'm overly narrowing the scope, for illustrative purposes, and could go on and on about this. The list of possible symptoms from low or high thyroid is a mile and a half long. This is where his lack of science background got real obvious... that he was just the messenger of a few textbooks. A better way to put this... rather than throwing out a few random symptoms from a mega-list... would be to say this...
"We have no idea what the downstream effects are when we selectively activate the thyroid beta receptor. It could potentially cause symptoms of low or high thyroid in various regards. The trials have all been too short to know if this would happen with longer term use."
Once he started talking like high thyroid can give you blood clots, I was close to smashing the computer lol.
Which again was another point of his... the trials have been short, so maybe we aren't seeing bad stuff because of how short they are, and we will see stuff in phase 3. So what? Who on earth suggested that this has to be a long term med?!? It could be used for short course, as it already dramatically reduces fat burden (if data continues to show that)... who says you keep giving it.
Moral of the story... the liver is incredibly resilient. Fun fact (med school was a long time ago).... but when they give someone a liver transplant... they cut a small piece of liver from a healthy person, and insert it into the recipient. That small piece essentially grows into a new liver. It is ongoing damage and scarring that really gets people's livers to the point where that regenerative potential is lost, like a tipping point of no return. So yes, we tolerate a little stress on the liver all the time with meds, knowing that the overall result is net positive in other realms. For example, over the counter Tylenol... responsible for more liver transplants than almost everything out there.
We are way too early to know how long you would use this for, and how much it helps NASH. Until you figure out how much benefit we get, it's kind of dumb to say that you need to have ZERO side effects. But hey, I'm happy still having zero. And very smart to see us using lower doses in this trial... to keep us on pace with MDGL's side effect profile. We are doing things right... it is smart to learn from there mistakes, even if that minimal ALT spike from MDGL earlier in trials was a red herring... VKTX was listening. Bravo guys. Then again... our lipid reducing effect is so huge... I personally think they reduced the dose because the higher dose from previous was just overkill.
Ok... final point... and this is the stuff I have been hinting at all along. Example... if you take a bunch of testosterone, like a bodybuilder does, your body stops making it own for awhile, it alters your estrogen level, etc... then your body adapts back to varying degrees over time. This is the stuff the guy was hinting at saying that selectively activating the thyroid-beta receptor might somehow suppress production of other thyroid hormones, or too much activation of the beta receptor might selectively give you symptoms of high thyroid that correspond to that receptor. This has always been an issue in the back of my mind, and one that I have dismissed as being a concrete barrier to approval... because our drug has thus far done HUGE things in SHORT periods of time. This isn't based on medicine fact, just my own theory, so buyer beware. If we can dramatically reduce the liver fat burden and buy someone a bunch of time to get their diet and exercise regimen and life back on track etc... with just like 12 weeks of dosing... why should I really care if it is doing some subtle thyroid stuff that we probably would barely notice in a larger study, with the pathway suppression/activation stuff. Wouldn't the means justify the ends? I've seen tons and tons of patients with low thyroid, and a fair amount with high thyroid. High thyroid can be more worrisome, because it is much more likely to be cancer etc (and cancer causes blood clots lol... hence a little of the blood clot risks lol, that we might not see with a drug lol). You know how many people I've thrown in the hospital for low or high thyroid... lol... could count them on one hand... after years in an ER. The body generally tolerates it, in the vast majority of cases, without too much trouble (if it goes on forever and ever you get some weirdness, admitted... but I don't think anyone has ever suggested that a short course of beta thyroid activation could forever alter the thyroid axis lol)... unless someone is insanely high or low thyroid, the body goes on in a state of subtle adapting. It's tolerated. Nobody has yet to find the OBVIOUS effects of VERY high or VERY low thyroid in these samples of patients studied (heart rate or temperature alterations, confusion, fluid retention, blah blah blah ;) ). Say it makes the thyroid a little off... I see zero reason why that would limit its use as a short to medium use therapy or intermittent therapy when trying to prevent Liver Transplant in NASH patients.
Kind of one of those 'would you rather' scenarios... Would you rather have a super fatty liver and need a liver transplant, or be a little high or low thyroid for awhile, like millions of other people out there... and then you stop the drug, liver is doing better, and fix your life, and your thyroid resumes it's normal state over a little bit of time? Sounds better than kissing your cousin lol. The reason why liver transplant is a death sentence for some folks, is because of the high doses of immunosuppressants needed to prevent rejection of that new liver... which wreak havoc on the immune system and the body.
And again, these are ALL still THEORETICAL STUFF that might happen in phase 3's.... we still are showing no major side effects. The nice part about being a new molecule... and technically they designed us to avoid all the stuff that the earlier drugs failed because of... how well we do it... time will tell.
Please feel free to ask any specific questions. Can you see why I only hinted at this before and didn't throw it all out there... it's beyond the scope... and honestly... none of this really scares me while waiting on a phase TWO trials... nor would they stop me from better on a phase 3, in this specific circumstance, whatsoever. I'm optimistic that results will be just like MDGL's. Heck... probably better.
Hope all is well Greens. You and Bull and Alex have made this a decent journey for me. Take care buddy. And again... ask away if I said stuff in a weird or confusing way. I could talk for hours on this stuff and theories and give examples of similar situations... but you don't see me picking one or two examples and making an SA article out of it ;)
Stay warm all, and happy trading
You guys are too kind! Happy to share the ride with you guys, I might not have had the patience to get this far without good company. A word of appreciation is more than I expect in this world lol and more than enough for me. Looking forward to the run up to our next trial, and hoping for some breadcrumbs along the way. Happy trading to all, stay warm
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! (even the shorts haha!)