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You're forgetting their marketing strategy for the black friday sales. 90$ annual sub offer plus processing fee. Even just 100k people bough that 90$ annual, they would have raised 9 million cash.
I personally believe the number is far higher. Even just half of the 600k reported in October took advantage of the deal. They would have raised 27 million dollars. Not to mention new accounts. I mean, why wouldn't you buy a yearly sub and forget about having to pay for movie tickets again for a whole year?
I believe MP is actually in green right now financially, and they have no funding issue what so ever. HMNY didn't even need to touch much of the 100 million convertible except to buy up to 62% of MP and close the deal as well as preparation for IPO.
Seems like a good opportunity to cause a dip for buy in until people realize MP is actually making money !!
Recent Mp financials are hard to digest. We knew they had 20k subs before the mid August new plan for the 9.95. It grew 400k+ by end of September. So we could safely say most of that nearly 5 million revenue comes from the 9.95 plan which is about right 500k ish by end of September. Apparently, being in red is expected from the get go at a nearly 10 million operating lost with 5 million coming from cost.
But, we don't have the Q4 numbers with the recent holiday sales and the annual sub sales. 90$ per customer if most converts to annual sub, it means MP could potentially net 45 million from just the 500k not counting new accounts since September.
We don't know what's the total sub number is right now and what percentage of that bought the 90$ annual offer. If 100k bought the 90$ annual sub, that's 9 million plus processing fee. 200k 18 million 300k 27 million and so on.
MP could be in green right now, and there is no real clarity until we see the reports in 2018 for Q4 2017. Christmas sales hasn't even started yet.
You guys are spending too much time on IPCI while Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litcoin have sky rocketed as much as 50x in the last 12 months. That's right, Ethereum has a return of over 5000% in the last 12 month. Bitcoin 1300%, Litcoin over 2000% return. Don't miss the future of investment. Let Odidi be what he wants to be. I have closed out of my position here completely.
They will announce the MP deal officially close and let us in on the updated value of MP. Stock will then adjust. Sub number will only provide a boost. The real gain lies in the deal closing and MP value update.
Yeah, no news, looked like a big block buy there.
I am still hoping they close the deal soon. Since Mid August, it's 3 months. Holidays might delay things a bit, but I am hoping they get it done early December.
Hard to say what the future holds for Opioids like Oxycodone. Although the market will remain but it's not being looked at positively because of all the negative media.
Guess what happens if an alternative comes a long that's just as good at managing pain without all the associated problems? I think that's a danger we should not over look long term. EGLT and the like, will likely suffer.
That's why I said I'm in this for PODRAS, otherwise, IPCI doesn't look like an attractive stock anymore based on the past performance.
Odidi could fumble along for the next several years and eventually generate positive cash flow assuming the generics will sell some, but I am not currently putting too much confidence in that right now.
I have other investment in e commerce giant like BABA and the potential growing JD. BABA have been doing very well for me since last year IPO. I'd say they are far lower risk investment than IPCI.
I've mentioned to keep an eye out for Movie Pass IPO and it's owner HMNY.
They are getting the sec filings out of the way, and looks like the next one is the proxy to close the deal which requires vote. It's happening.
Check filings today. Next one is a proxy for share holders to vote.
buy order at 12.6 getting close to fill. Have cash ready in case it gives up the gains and go even lower, I'd be happy to pick up more shares.
Somebody block it at 13.9 with some 25k sell order sitting there. lol. As I said nothing significant to justify a sustained move up yet.
Johnyvs, I mentioned MP deal needs to close. They got the 100 million funding, Ted is now just granted 500k shares when the deal with Mp close. So that means, the deal should hopefully close in Dec like they say.
When that deal officially close, it means MP should get an update on it's current value, which means HMNY as 53% owner and eventual 62% owner of MP will get valued at exactly that 53% and 62% of MP.
So in mid Oct MP was reported 210 million in value. I wouldn't be surprised MP value is 2x or more, or 420 million by December. You do the math, take 53% of 420 million is 223 million or 62% is 260 million over the shares outstanding that should be at about 13 million when the deal close as originally projected by the CEO.
You're looking at price per share taking 223/13 of $17.15 - 260/13 of 20$. Now, this is a very rough estimate since we don't really know what MP value is or will be by December.
But, assuming the deal close successfully in Dec, and MP grown from 400k to 1 million customers. MP value likely double at the very least. So for a low estimate maybe 18-20$, a higher estimate would be 25$ like Maxium did with their price target.
But, who knows what MP value would be in the next 12 months? Will it move north of 1 billion?
Mitch is doing exactly I have hopped for. Get subscribers as fast as he can. Just watch, when MP is big with millions of subscribers, he will create that dependency on MP for the entire movie industry. At that point people comes to him for deals. The annual sub is brilliant idea not uncommon though. It locks you in for the year of subscription, MP gets that cash boost immediately.
An update saying the deal will close in Dec which seems like it's pushed back a little. I am still waiting for that news to come.
Well if you shorted at 13.5 or so, should be able to get a good trade for the day. Anyways, love the news for a little trade action.
Might revisit 14 though, still early in the day.
I think after the holiday sales they might announce the 1 million news.
They are at 11 since last ER. That should increase to 13 as they close the deal just like projected. It doesn't stop there, it should hit 15+ when the 100 million finance fully convert.
Still not the time to run yet, it will come back down. These little pumps a great for a trade.
I saw a new 13D saying Ted is getting awarded 500k shares when MP deal close. That is effective in the next 60 days.
They filed this now, means MP deal is closing so that Ted can get his 500k shares and he would be a 22% owner. I am thinking the MP deal is closing soon maybe even within this week or the next.
MP deal closing is a immportant catalyst. The institutions bought in the last few days probably know this is happening soon.
See there is more to marketing strategies. Signing up people with 89.95 annual sub means they take in 89.95$ now, but the cost associated with that new annual sub won't hit MP right away until those members start using the card in the next 12 months.
That gives them time to make deals and bring in new revenue to offset that eventual cost that will get caught up as the new members start using the cards for the next 12 month. And if on average these people watch less than 9 movies in the next 12 month, MP is actually profitable.
So for people to say if MP member were to watch 2 movies in the first month MP would be in red is only partially true. People some times look at things too straight forward and too simple minded. I bet those critics are saying, wow, I didn't think of how they can do this to offset some of that initial costs.
If statistics shows that on average people go to movies less than 9 times a year, MP is profitable. Assuming due to the MP offer that average increase, MP might still break even or a bit in red. It's not as bad as some people think.
I think the initial cost is still relatively high since more people will likely venture to see more movies, but we can see MP have ways to offset some of that cost.
It's like giving you a new toy, you might get excited and play it more often in the beginning, but you eventually get tired of playing it.
Speaking of closing the MP deal, I am hoping we see that soon. That's one important catalyst more so than anything else. We saw institutions bought in 11/14 or earlier, we should be expecting the deal closing within the weeks of Nov. If this drags on into Dec, it might be viewed as bearish. They got the funding, no reason why they shouldn't be able to close this soon.
I know, MP no doubt is the center of stage. I am patiently waiting for its IPO.
HMNY is on one thing. The deal needs to close. From that point on, HMNY value is officially a percentage of MP ownership.
Even so, I see money eventually move to MP after MP goes public. HMNY will still retain value but hard to say how hot it might be from that point on if everybody flocks to MP stock.
Plus, if relations between HMNY and MP goes sour at some point, you'll want to be sure your bets are on MP and not HMNY. In any case, HMNY ownership still worth holding a position just I probably wouldn't go all in.
Trade for some profit and get with MP when the time comes. HMNY would make me nervous right now if I was holding a big position.
I am seeing MP doing promos for the holiday sales. Gift card, preload on new iPhones, this is going to gain more members faster than we anticipated.
Past projections were somewhat linear expecting a linear growth. I think this is looking more like a parabolic growth. Going to blow up in subscription numbers in the month of Nov and Dec.
MP no doubt is spending on promotions. That means their financials aren't too bad. If they were too much in red, you would think they keep spending in check.
Doog, that's the problem with Odidi is that he's got all the patents on PODRAS and all but he's got no money to at least prove the concept works in labs. Unproven concept is hard to sell for big dollars.
He can talk all he wanted, but no body will put down millions on his words alone. They will simply say show me it actually works and we'll talk.
Nobody wants to commit millions in R&D on something that's never been done in history before. Proof of concept on PODRAS is what he needs to focus on .
Originally IPCI got the fast track from FDA it was Rexista + PODRAS. But, it ended up Rexista only. Why is that? Couldn't IPCI have raised capital for PODRAS when stock was at 3$?
On another note, Movie Pass owner HMNY just got several institutions buying in or increase stakes. That's looking like it's build up for a run soon.
Yeah, we're getting institutional support, that's important. It will build that new bottom when they buy and hold.
One thing I kind of wanted to point out is that a business doesn't have to be profitable to sustain. I know that sounds crazy. But, when you think outside the box of having to be profitable, you start realizing a business can generate a whole lot of businesses for others. That creates dependency and its own ecosystem if you want to put it that.
A business is not alone. MP will affect the film makers big or small, theaters, local restaurants, concession sales, marketing data, phone app, advertisement, and even streaming service.
Growing MP can create dependency on MP for many of the related business. And, that's how MP will sustain even if it isn't profitable. It moves the entire industry, and create business for other businesses. That makes MP important to keep around.
This is what I like to see. Check out the new institutional ownership. Follow the money.
https://fintel.io/sob/us/hmny
That's why they had it in the terms MP must go public in January. They are going to need the money. HMNY getting new funding to provide that run way to MP IPO in January. HMNY invested 28 million for the 53%, and then they are throwing 20 million more for the 8% option. That's already 48 million investment into MP when they close the deal and complete the option. All that is going to show up negative. We all knew that's going to happen and HMNY is worth nearly nothing without MP. That's a lot of money involved.
We need to see the deal officially close. That's one catalyst I'm personally waiting for. With the deal closed, HMNY would officially be the owner and MP had waive their rights to terminate the deal. HMNY is basically saying to MP you can't back out on us now, and MP agreed.
So 43 million loses? That's just the beginning. They have 100 million new funding and going to show more loses in the next 10k. Wait till the deal close and HMNY started reporting MP financials. Better be prepared to see so big loses lol
I hold a core and is trading a portion on any pop. Didn't go lower this morning so I had to get back in.
Just hope we can make another big run after deal close and MP IPO. I will then shift some money to MP shares.
I completely agree Drosmigs, I said the same thing in past posts. If not for HMNY deal with MP, I would not touch HMNY stock.
I think people are more interested in MP IPO including the financial groups. But, none the less, HMNY will benefit from MP. But, the real money I think it's on MP long term.
Eventually, I see new management take over the entire operation in the form of buyout or merger. MP could be buying back their stakes or even buying out HMNY.
Ted and the insiders sees this as an investment opportunity. Insiders are all in and they owns 80% of HMNY. Seems like HMNY insiders are shifting to be stock holders rather than going to be running the operations in the future.
I see Mitch running the show with potentially Netflix buyout. Because we hear Mitch on TV and other public media all the time and not so much from Ted. MP is the center of stage.
If no buyout, MP will stand alone as the next big player in the online stream and movie going business. It would rival Netflix and Amazon alike. MP has a unique competitive advantage of being able to offer its member both options. Either stream at home or go to theater for new films without the waiting time for a new film to become available on stream. All that for one subscription $9.95 a month. You can't beat that.
There are many ways to generate revenue other than ticket sales. I think theaters realize that too and in the future we might actually see theaters lowering ticket price or have their own program to compete with MP.
Yeah, big loses due to the deal with MP. Shares outstanding is now 8.54 million shares. Deal with MP still not closed yet. Nothing exciting.
Warn about company as a going concern. Pretty much trying to make sure you knew the risk in investing in HMNY right now.
Company will likely remain in red for the coming year and acquired 100 million in finance to fund the operations. Nothing new that we don't already expect.
Pretty much useless ER lol. Have to wait for further news. Keep in mind HMNY will not report MP earnings until the deal close and that HMNY officially owns MP. So MP financial state is still private and unavailable to public.
Bit of sell off into earnings report from the look of it. Good that it's creating chance to load again. Could be red tomorrow again, I am looking for entry.
More DD on this per last sec filing, the 100 million finance deal closed on 11/7. 5 million series A notes sold and then about 2.2 million every week for total of 20 million by end of December. The remaining 95 million is in the form of a weekly payment.
From the sound of it, HMNY won't be owning 62.4% just yet, not until December when they get the 20 million. Wonder if they will drag out the MP deal closing date too.
Yeah, AMC hated that fact, and MP ruined their own subscription plan. As I said, when 50% of AMC sales is MP members, what's AMC going to do?
If they try to make MP usage difficult at AMC theaters like not getting on the program to allow advanced seat select. Or, AMC simply not deal with MP at all, guess what?
AMC competitors will take advantage of the situation, and soon, everybody is going to go to other theaters because they can see a movie a day and they can select seats in advance!! Smaller guys are already contacting MP per CEO interview. They see opportunity to compete with AMC.
ACM is just making itself difficult by publicly stating not willing to work with MP ever.
Right now it don't matter if you use MP card at AMC or another theater yet. But, what if I get 20% discount on concession sales say at Regal? Or now that I can actually select seats in advance at Regal and AMC don't? Where do you think MP members are going to watch movies?
People don't get that yet. AMC will regret it if they keep up the negative attitude. MP is already a small percentage of AMC sales and it will only grow in number.
It be funny AMC makes an 180 degrees turn saying AMC is now friends with MP some times down the road. Just not smart with what AMC did publicly. AMC is better off keeping it neutral like Regal did.
They should be closing the MP deal, it might be kept quiet since we're going into earnings report soon. First Mitch stir things up a bit on TV, then earnings report hits that they have closed the deal and owned 62.4% of MP. Then MP revalued at 420 million near 1 million subs. Watch this goes to 20$ + again.
My mistake, I kept thinking they are 9-10 million OS now. Last report was at 7 million. So about 15 is correct.
Yeah, that's what I originally calculated, it will put the shares outstanding at 18 million if all of those notes convert in the next year. That will drop stock value obviously more shares = less per share.
But I also saw MP value jumped from 50 million to 210 million in two months time.
So assuming 1 year out OS increase to 18 million, with current value it will drop the stock by more than half. But, we don't know what value MP will be in a year.
If MP continue to grown with 4 million members by next August, that's 200x of 20k members they started with in mid August this year. Lol, so the question is does value growth outweigh the dilution? You do the math.
MP is already having an effect on the entire industry sales. People can't denied it any more.
We need an update on MP value, that sets the HMNY stock value knowing HMNY will be owning 62.4% now. So whatever the value is for MP, HMNY is worth 64.2% of it.
I doubt they can pull off on streaming new release. That's the biggest fear of theaters. What I see is that they allow stream of old films like Netflix, but you also have the option to go to a theater for new films. They have to protect theater chains. Or else, the theaters are going broke.
Depends, if they update subscription number and give good guidance for next year, we might go up more. Everyone is expecting to be in the red on the financial side, but you never know. Maybe they surprise.
Problem is AMC is being suborn and what I see is that AMC competitors takes advantage of this, which can actually hurt AMC. But, I don't think Mitch want's to see AMC fail, so perhaps they can all be friends in the end just like Mitch said.
Yeah, but good luck with a CEO running AMC that's some what short sighted. Nope, we won't share with MP, and he goes to repeat that 3 times in a conference call. Dumbest move ever, if you don't think MP will succeed play it neutral, just don't say anything bad.
That's why AMC stock is hurting. Mitch on CNBC left us yet another piece of important detail. Think about Netflix and Amazon right now, they offer stream, and that's great, but you can't see a new film right away on Netflix.
So, what Mitch just revealed is that MP will eventually provide both stream and movie tickets. What this means is that MP will be able to offer something that Netflix don't currently have.
Imagine MP member are given the option to either go to a theater or stay at home? That offers complete movie service.
I see conflict of interest with Netflix down the road, so it makes me wonder if Netflix buyout is in order when the time is right.
One MP membership allows you to either stay at home steam or go to theaters with unlimited access. You can't beat that.
When people realize this, we might see more buy interest. Shorts will be careful here not to get squeezed. Maybe it won't run much but have to be careful on stock like this.