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Tinka Resources Limited (TK)
Exchange: TSX Venture Exchange
$0.46 Feb 18, 2014, 2:58 PM EST
Change: 0.065 (16.46%)
Volume: 249,921
Day Low 0.36
Day High0.48
52 Week Low 0.275
52 Week High 1.25
YES! The "ROLL" is now complete! Now begins the process of funding the "Biggest Gold Find in Canadian History!" so I would expect a 20,000,000 unit deal with a full warrant to raise $2,000,000 taking the fully-diluted cap up to 81,000,000 again. Drill drill drill baby then rinse and repeat.
The good news is now we have a much tighter structure and a shot at making a few pennies for a trade.
Everyone get on the bid at a nickel. No brainer.
What's the new name going to be?
To those with "large stakes" in this company: Do you not think that management made decisions on the assumption that new investors would respond to narrow-vein results the way they did with LSG? Do you not think that the current Kodiak of a Bear Market had a lot to do with the crash? Do you not think that IN_XS wanted the share price to rise when he first started asking the tough questions? Bottom line is that this as been a more difficult market than the post-Bre-X period of 1997-2001 and name calling and blame-gaming is a futile exercise. And for a CEO to blame one of his shareholders for the demise of his stock is a horrendous passing of the buck. Shareholders cannot grant themselves "incentive options" for performance to average down. Management can and has.
I would like to hear from Desti. He has been spot on since 2011 so his wise counsel would be welcomed. Interested in whether CD assured him of "no rollback"?
Was that a 5-1 rollback? Guess I nailed that on the screws, now, didn't I? No wait, I said 20-1 roll so I was technically wrong. Whatever, now it is starting to look attractive. $.10 post-roll would be a good entry point through a flow-through unit with a full warrant. Question remains: who is gonna run this company? Surely ain't gonna be Business as Usual...
Excellent post, Gharma. Or stated another way, TPW is a junior exploration company's property with a major mining company's funding requirement. Essentially what I have been warning of since 2011.
"Someone will have to mine TPW the way the did Pearl Lake and reap the profits for the next 100 years."
If you refer to "Pearl Lake" as the Hollinger-McIntyre complex, you are going to need to remove 600-800 metres of rock first because those outboard veins began at surface at the HMC. The surface mineralization at TPW is sub-economic and the five companies that owned it prior to EXSFF confirmed that, including Tom Resources.
You don't need to be a geologist or a licensed broker to grasp this - all you need is the ability to read.
Greg thinks that this was possibly his worst call ever. someone obviously agreed with him today and dumped a boatload. That's ok - it still remains "The Biggest Gold Find in Canadian History" according to the dreamers so the sellers in 2011 at $.50 were spot on. It is not a sin to be wrong on a stock but it is criminal to REMAIN wrong. I was right in buying this in 2007 and wrong in not selling into the MDO pump but I was ten times as right in moving me and my friends OUT when the Board changed. Oh well. C'est la vie.
Nasty back and forth between the "true believers" and the "realists" but the reality remains that you just won't be able to imagine how many shares will be issued and outstanding before any deal is done. $38 million got you 1m ounces and over 200m shares o/s - if it takes 3m ounces to prompt a move by a major and the bulk of that money is raised at $.10 there will be over a billion shares o/s. Market cap $100m.
IN_XS has it totally nailed. However, the stock can rally here because it is pretty much sold out. If you own 100k @ $.75, you buy another 1m @$.03 to get your cost way down then dump the lot @ $.12 and you are out clean. After all, "the biggest gold find in Canadian history" should be trading higher, right? Or else you take a tax loss and move the proceeds to JP Morgan where shareholders are making huge dough.
I hope for everyone's sake that Challis can get CD's attention as others before him could not. The next move would be to have Challis bring in three more board members and then launch an executive recruiting drive to find a new CEO and let CD remain as COO. All of this was recommended in 2010 and the rejection of its implementation resulted in chaos and massive shareholder losses. Of course, the bear market in gold and gold stocks didn't help. I am trying to find a reason to own this stock but the odds favour a massive, vicious, debilitating ROLLBACK and my bet is that Challis offers a huge funding package contingent upon a ROLLBACK and that CD will jump on it. After all, that drilling company has expenses, you know.
Challis is an ex-stockbroker from the U.K. Desti should LOVE that. Meanwhile, GM has finally thrown EXSFF under the bus saying it is now a TAX-LOSS candidate and that the last deal was a "ridiculously stupid financing".
It is not relevant what McCoach said in 2009 when he first bought it at $.19 nor in 2010 at $1.00 - where is the rollback and how severe will it be? Where are the Kidd results and what is the burn rate? What is going to turn the tide back and allow the shareholders to recover. That's all that matters.
Peruvian stocks have already corrected and some have crashed while others have done relatively well but what does that have to do with Explor? Where are the moderators when you need someone banned?
Nobody - repeat - nobody knows what management will do to secure additional financing (that keeps the drilling company in business) but what we have OBSERVED is that the PRIORITY is to keep the drilling company in business as opposed to preserving and enhancing shareholder value. So when you are assessing probable outcomes, all you need to is look to the past and observe the comments of those that were right versus the comments of those that were WRONG. The likelihood of a rollback is directly proportionate to the willingness of NEW investors to write the cheque with 200 + million shares outstanding and that is something that no one - repeat - NO ONE knows.
A 20:1 ROLL would be a perfect reset and minimize future dilution. Existing shareholders would be punished unless they added more stock post-roll but right now, every DIME advance is $20m dollars of market cap so do the math. Bring on the roll!
Rule of Thumb is that junior mining private placees do not invest with an expectation of seeing shareholder value DECLINE as has been the case since 2007. $35m in funding should have resulted in a $140mm increase in market value. Instead, market cap today is $7.31mm and that is EXACTLY why the statement is correct. Unless you think that the $35mm actually created some value, which it did not. Or are you getting a different quote?
Rule of Thumb is that effective management will create $4 of added shareholder equity for every $1 of money raised. Since 2007, the company has raised over $35 million with the peak-to-trough loss in market cap over $100 million. How anyone can view the drilling at TPW, EL, Kidd, and PG-101 as anything but disastrous is beyond me and many posters in here. It is rollback time and the sooner the better.
Being "flat wrong" and "clearly speaking of inexperience" is a distinct possibility and you might be correct. However, if you were shown an opportunity to invest in two companies with one million ounces "inferred" with Company A having 200m shares issued priced at $.03 and Company B having 20m shares issued priced at $.30, the vast majority will opt for B because there is more room to finance down the line. But time will tell and if by the end of summer, Explor has to go back to market for more capital (and it WILL), we'll see how big the demand is with 200m shares issued. CD will stop at nothing to keep the drilling company in business so with 300 layoffs last month in the Val d'Or geo force last month, the vice grip is tightening and desperation is setting in. Time to ROLL this puppy because if you don't, the Moneta Pork-U-Pine Model will replace the HMC Model and it won't be nice. Timmins Pork-U-Pine West is a money-gobbler and that's where the tire hits the blacktop. ROLL time!
Roll 'er back! Anyone that has avoided this nightmare can safely invest and the longs that are trapped can always throw good money after bad and go "ALL IN!" like Sprott and Embrey and the likes. If you really do believe that the TPW "pregnant elephant" has come full term, then it won't matter if you slice and dice 'er 10:1 and give some new money a chance to play. The baby elephants won't be foaled with $2mm in the bank so they might as well dress Mama up with a big fat financing before she lies down under the tree and to do that they need to rock and ROLL(back). Then schmooze a few newsletter guys and hire four new IR firms and enlist a few internet chatroom boosters and they scream back to a $100m market cap with 40m shares issued is $2.50. New people make a ton and old shareholders recover fivefold from current prices. Otherwise, the cash will bleed away and the news releases will go ignored and the share price will stagnate and the company will blame the "bad market" or "bad luck" or "unsophisticated investors" for poor performance.
Stock cheap at $.035 but just as cheap at $.35 with a 10:1 ROLL in place.
$40m dollars spent in seven years....1mm ounces after two 43-101's completed...10 properties in the company and zero production with a spent treasury. Bloated share structure and a hostile shareholder base.
I think the stock is a huge buy. Contrarian investing is an art form. Who's left to sell?
Re: Kidd
Robert Trembley was the consulting geologist that did all of the interpretation at Kidd in the past. From memory, if you have thumbnail size globules of copper-zinc sulphides in core, this interpretation becomes Priority #1 and you are getting it in front of the market on a laser beam. If, however, you have trace copper-zinc in unremarkable core, there is little urgency to interpret anything because it doesn't represent a material change in the company's affairs because there little economic significance to the drill results. Accordingly, the reporting of the news comes on a Hudson River garbage scow and that's why there is going to be ZERO in the Kidd results to drive the share price.
Re: Rollback
With gold and silver now firmly entrenched in intermediate term bear markets, the outlook for the junior markets is dim until that trend is reversed. All the flag-wavers and pompom shakers and tinfoil hat wearers can write their blogs and email their friends with these long missives about money-printing and currency debasement and the "Oncoming Inflationary Storm" but the reality is that gold has had its remarkable 10-year "run" and is long overdue for a three-to-five-year correction DOWNWARD. In that environment, all juniors will have to reconstruct their capital structure so as to attract new investors (unless they are generating cash of sitting on a pile of it) and Explor is no different. This company has raised $35mm (+) in seven years and has one million ounces to show for it. They will be challenged to raise anywhere close to that amount with 200mm issued (f.d.) and will do anything required to keep the drills turning in order to keep all of those private companies that do Explor's work in business. Hence, the likelihood of a rollback is high and rising.
Smart money will wait for the roll and then survey the terms of the next financing (after a name-change and the addition of one or more Rouyn-based directors designed to give the appearance of "changes being made").
Where is the follow-up assay report on the Kidd Creek drilling? If investors bought stock in anticipation of a major VMS discovery, are they not entitled to know whether Kidd drilling was successful? The Company has reported on a number of items but not the actual assays from Kidd and whether or not the "consultants" are "evaluating the data", as a shareholder, give ME the data and I'll do my own "interpretation". Now, if the results were (once again) anomalous or sub-economic, shareholders deserve to know how much was spent and what they got for that expenditure. Agreements with the First Nations are irrelevant if you have a barren treasury and cannot raise money because you have 200+ million shares issued and are due for a severe rollback.
Total garbage - McCoach knows exactly why shareholders vacated the deal and so do you. You really like Greg and you really like CD but you have no idea why a rollback is the only course of action?
Well if you owned ZERO stock in the deal, would you put new money up at a nickel when 20 million = $1,000,000? 10% dilution for every $1,000,000? They spent well over $40 mm to get 1mm ounces so math101 dictates that to get to 2mm ounces you will issue 400mm additional shares. Right?
a 4-1 rollback is too easy - roll it 20-1 so you are under 10mm shares and then offer existing shareholders the first crack at the next funding and start over.
Then the SHAREHOLDERS should replace the BOARD and bring in a new CEO and reclaim the very assets that THEY paid for. Keep CD as a consultant because his field team is solid with the new board determining compensation and budgets.
And FIRE all the IR people and hire a new cheerleader.
This is "The Biggest Gold Find in Canadian History" - the question remains "When will the market start to ACCEPT the MODEL? Was it really a P&D from Day One? I don't think so but many others do and that's all that matters.
Who was that poster talking about an impending jv with Agnico? GG? Hmmmmm....
TexasLady - these bear markets in juniors are very difficult to endure. The KEY is to know how to be positioned to get profitable. You have every right to be angry with Dupont over the performance but every junior mining CEO (and the majors as well) are feeling huge heat. No one is to blame and no one has bagged you. The key to recovery is learning how you arrived here in the first place. In whose trust were your fortunes placed and who told you to "trust" them. Difficult times and difficult markets. This morning's press release reeked of total desperation. "Open pit Model" versus "HMC Model" is really not want the market wanted to hear.
Split the company into two entities? And that would accomplish what? You do a spinout when the price is high, not after a crash. Financing two separate entities in this market would equal TWO disasters instead of ONE disaster. Brilliant!
Roll it back and start over. That's the only way to retain the leverage to the land package and attract a big partner on favourable terms. It will screw existing shareholders but they are screwed either way. Bring on the 20:1 rollback and then launch a 10mm unit financing at $.50.
Hear hear, P.B.
It was a mid-2011 that we started to question why EVERYONE'S efforts to beef up the board were being sluffed off resulting in a major resignation buried at the tail-end of a PG-101 announcement on a Friday night.
When a resignation is met with the kind of spin-attack that was engineered by certain posters that said director "wasn't doing his job" or "couldn't cut it" while said director kept his mouth shut and said nothing, well, it was that kind of garbage that kept the pump going when in reality, it was that one single event that should have been the clue to "problems in Rouyn" and THAT should have been the major point of discussion rather than what investor group decided to sell their stock.
Anyhow, what's done is done and now that Desti admits that he is "not happy" and wants clarification over the fudged 43-101 at TPW, perhaps we can all agree to discuss EXSFF without angst.
Rollback is the only way this thing can be funded adequately cuz a JV is going to dilute their interest in TPW and put a bear hug on the stock's valuation no matter how many ounces they prove up.
It might be time to step up here at all time lows - last print at $.04 (Cdn.) was in 2003.
Mind you, there were only 14 million shares issued.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=CA%3AEXS&insttype=Stock&time=13&freq=2
Am I reading the screen correctly?
Does anyone have a succinct analysis for the ALL-TIME low print on the TSX Venture Exchange at $.045 this morning on a 300,000+ dump by Credit Suisse?
With gold screaming higher, and the TSXV up .27 and with the majors all higher, why oh why is Explor not being heralded as "The Biggest Gold Find in Canadian History"?????
It seems that the market must know more than we do.
What about the Kidd results? Anyone speak to CEE-DEE?
Read my post two more times...
You cannot have "free stock" unless you have reduced your holdings - it is mathematically impossible.