NVDA, SMCI, AVGO - >>> Step Aside, Nvidia: Billionaires Are Selling It in Favor of 2 Other High-Growth Stock-Split Stocks


by Sean Williams

Motley Fool

September 13, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/step-aside-nvidia-billionaires-selling-085100760.html


Although artificial intelligence (AI) has been all the rage on Wall Street since 2023 began, excitement surrounding stock splits has given AI a run for its money this year.

A stock split gives publicly traded companies the ability to superficially alter their share price and outstanding share count by the same magnitude. Splits are surface-scratching in the sense that they don't change a company's market cap or in any way affect underlying operating performance.

Although there are two types of stock splits -- forward and reverse -- investors usually gravitate to companies conducting forward splits. This type of split is designed to lower a company's share price to make it more nominally affordable for investors who are unable to purchase fractional shares through their broker. Companies enacting forward splits are usually outpacing their competition from an execution and innovation standpoint.

Since 2024 began, a little over a dozen leading businesses have announced or completed a stock split -- all but one of which was of the forward-split variety.

However, the outlook for some of these premier stock-split stocks is mixed among Wall Street's brightest and richest investors. Based on the latest round of form 13F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, billionaires were decisive sellers of cutting-edge AI stock Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) in the second quarter, but were avid buyers of two other high-growth stock-split stocks.

Billionaires continue to reduce their stakes in Wall Street's AI darling

For three consecutive quarters, dating back to the start of October 2023, no fewer than seven billionaire money managers have reduced their respective stakes in Nvidia. The June-ended quarter featured seven billionaire sellers, including (total shares sold in parenthesis):

Ken Griffin of Citadel (9,282,018 shares)

David Tepper of Appaloosa Management (3,730,000 shares)

Stanley Druckenmiller of Duquesne Family Office (1,545,370 shares)

Cliff Asness of AQR Capital Management (1,360,215 shares)

Israel Englander of Millennium Management (676,242 shares)

Steven Cohen of Point72 Asset Management (409,042 shares)

Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management (96,963 shares)

With Nvidia completing its largest-ever forward split (10 for 1) in June, these billionaires might have chosen to ring the register and diversify their respective portfolios. But there looks to be more to this story than simple profit taking.

Although Nvidia has undeniably benefited from its first-mover advantages as the standout supplier of AI graphics processing units (GPUs), competition is now coming at it from all angles.

With the debut of Nvidia's Blackwell chip delayed by at least three months due to reported design flaws and supply chain issues, and the company's prized H100 GPU backlogged, it should be relatively easy for external competitors like Advanced Micro Devices to find strong demand for their AI GPUs.

Moreover, Nvidia's top customers are signaling an eventual reduced reliance on the AI kingpin. Its four largest clients by net sales are all developing AI GPUs that they plan to use in their data centers. Even with Nvidia's chips maintaining their computing advantage, the writing is on the wall that these customers intend to use their cheaper internally developed hardware.

Billionaires might also be spooked by the persistent insider selling at Nvidia. While not all insider selling is necessarily nefarious (e.g., insiders sometimes sell stock to pay their tax bill), it is noteworthy that not one executive or board member has purchased shares on the open market since December 2020.

Lastly, billionaire asset managers might be concerned about what history tells us. Since the advent of the internet roughly three decades ago, every next-big-thing trend has worked its way through an early-stage bubble. It's unlikely that AI is going to be the exception.

But while billionaires were showing Nvidia to the door, they were busy scooping up shares of two other high-growth stock-split stocks.


Super Micro Computer

The first stock-split stock that struck the fancy of six billionaire money managers during the second quarter is Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), a specialist in customizable rack server and storage solutions. These billionaire buyers were:

Israel Englander of Millennium Management (553,323 shares)

Jeff Yass of Susquehanna International Group (508,814 shares)

Ken Griffin of Citadel (98,752 shares)

Steven Cohen of Point72 Asset Management (45,066 shares)

Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates (15,777 shares)

Cliff Asness of AQR Capital Management (1,040 shares)

With the stock catapulting to north of $1,200 during the first quarter, it's not in the least bit surprising to see Supermicro's board approving a 10-for-1 forward split, to take effect after trading ends on Sept. 30.

However, the prospect of a stock split isn't the primary draw for billionaires to Supermicro. The lure is the seemingly insatiable demand from businesses wanting to be among the first to capitalize on the AI revolution by training large language models and running generative Ai solutions. To do so, they'll need the necessary infrastructure in place, which Supermicro can provide.

The company's operating results have also given billionaires reason to be excited. Net sales jumped 110% to $14.9 billion in fiscal 2024 (the company's fiscal year ends on June 30), and the midpoint of its guidance calls for $28 billion in net revenue for the current year. This forecast screams that demand is exceptional at the moment.

But it won't be an easy ride. With its use of Nvidia's H100 GPUs in its customizable data-center rack servers, and the H100 backlogged, Supermicro finds itself at the mercy of its suppliers.

Furthermore, the company is the target of a short-seller report from Hindenburg Research, which has alleged accounting manipulation. Despite denying these allegations, management did delay the annual filing of its operating results, which did little to soothe investor concerns.

Despite its relatively inexpensive valuation, Super Micro Computer has a lot to prove to Wall Street and investors.


Broadcom

The other stock-split stock that billionaires very clearly favored over Nvidia in the June-ended quarter is AI networking solutions and services providers Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO). Seven billionaire investors took the plunge in the second quarter, including:

Ole Andreas Halvorsen of Viking Global Investors (2,930,970 shares)

Jeff Yass of Susquehanna International Group (2,347,500 shares)

Israel Englander of Millennium Management (2,096,440 shares)

Ken Griffin of Citadel (1,880,740 shares)

John Overdeck and David Siegel of Two Sigma Investments (1,332,230 shares)

Ken Fisher of Fisher Investments (865,090 shares)

Keeping with the theme of this list, Broadcom also announced a 10-for-1 forward split (the first in the company's history), which was completed in mid-July.

Broadcom's AI ties have certainly been the fuel behind its recent uptick in growth. In particular, the company's networking solutions are responsible for connecting large numbers of AI GPUs in order to reduce tail latency and maximize the computing potential of AI-accelerating hardware. Presumably, demand for its AI networking solutions will remain robust as long as businesses keep gobbling up AI GPUs.

However, billionaires might be equally excited about Broadcom having a solid foundation that extends well beyond artificial intelligence. It generates a significant amount of revenue and profits from the wireless chips and accessories it provides for next-generation smartphones. And it's a key provider of optical components used in automated industrial equipment, as well as networking solutions for next-gen vehicles.

Lastly, billionaires might be impressed with the company's track record of earnings-accretive acquisitions. For example, the $69 billion purchase of cloud-based virtualization software company VMware in November 2023 perfectly positions Broadcom to be an important player in helping businesses with their private- and hybrid-cloud needs.

With a more diverse revenue stream than Nvidia or Super Micro Computer, Broadcom would be best-positioned to navigate an AI bubble-bursting event, should one occur.

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>>> Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) designs, produces, and retails factory-built homes primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Factory-Built Housing and Financial Services.

The company markets its factory-built homes under the Cavco, Fleetwood, Palm Harbor, Nationwide, Fairmont, Friendship, Chariot Eagle, Destiny, Commodore, Colony, Pennwest, R-Anell, Manorwood, MidCountry, and Solitaire brands.

It produces park model RVs; vacation cabins; and factory-built commercial structures, including apartment buildings, condominiums, hotels, workforce housing, schools, and housing for the United States military troops.

In addition, the company produces various modular homes, which include single and multi-section ranch, split-level, and Cape Cod style homes, as well as two- and three-story homes, and multi-family units.

Further, it provides conforming and non-conforming mortgages and home-only loans to purchasers of various brands of factory-built homes sold by company-owned retail stores, as well as various independent distributors, builders, communities, and developers.

Additionally, the company offers property and casualty insurance to owners of manufactured homes. It distributes its products through a network of independent and company-owned retailers, planned community operators, and residential developers. Cavco Industries, Inc. was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CVCO/profile/


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>>> Climb Global Solutions Reports Second Quarter 2024 Results and Announces Acquisition of Douglas Stewart Software & Services, LLC


Climb Global Solutions, Inc.

Aug 6, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/climb-global-solutions-reports-second-200500904.html


Net Sales up 13% to $92.1 Million; Net Income up more than 2x to $3.4 Million or $0.75 per Share; Adjusted EBITDA up 48% to $6.9 Million

Acquisition Establishes Climb as a Leader in the North America Education Sector While Expanding its Product Offerings

Transaction Expected to be Accretive to Earnings per Share and Adjusted EBITDA


EATONTOWN, N.J., Aug. 06, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Climb Global Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLMB) (“Climb”, the “Company”, “we”, or “our”), a value-added global IT channel company providing unique sales and distribution solutions for innovative technology vendors, is reporting results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2024. The Company is also announcing the acquisition of Douglas Stewart Software & Services, LLC (“DSS”), a leading specialist distributor of software to the education market in North America.

Second Quarter 2024 Summary vs. Same Year-Ago Quarter

Net sales increased 13% to $92.1 million.

Adjusted gross billings (a non-GAAP financial measure defined below) increased 31% to $359.8 million.

Net income increased more than 2x to $3.4 million or $0.75 per diluted share.

Adjusted net income (a non-GAAP financial measure defined below) increased 19% to $3.8 million or $0.83 per diluted share.

Adjusted EBITDA (a non-GAAP financial measure defined below) increased 48% to $6.9 million.

Management Commentary

“Our Q2 results were highlighted by another period of solid growth and improved profitability as we generated a double-digit increase in net sales and material increases in adjusted gross billings, net income and adjusted EBITDA,” said CEO Dale Foster. “This was driven by the continued execution of our core strategy – generating organic growth by deepening relationships with existing vendors, signing new cutting-edge technologies to our line card, and delivering on our acquisition objectives.

“Today, we are also announcing the acquisition of Wisconsin-based IT distributor DSS, adding scale and expertise to our N.A. operations along with 20 new vendor partners including Adobe, Go Guardian and Incident IQ. DSS has delivered consistent growth through a subscription-based software licensing model, built on an 85%+ retention rate for its strategic vendor partners’ offerings. DSS is a proven leader in the EdTech channel and provides services to more than 500 value-added resellers and 250 campus stores across N.A. in both the K-12 and higher education markets. We are pleased to welcome Chuck Hulan and his team to the Climb family and look forward to unlocking synergies and cross-selling opportunities while advancing shared cloud marketplace initiatives as we integrate DSS into our platform in the months ahead.

“As we enter the back half of the year, we have a solid foundation in place to continue driving strong organic growth while further improving operating leverage through the recent implementation of our new ERP. As we move into 2025, we anticipate the increased amortization expense associated with the ERP will be offset through planned operating synergies in our global platform. We will also continue to evaluate M&A opportunities that can enhance our service and solutions, in addition to our geographic footprint. These initiatives along with our robust balance sheet will enable us to deliver on both our organic and inorganic growth objectives in 2024 and beyond.”

Dividend

Subsequent to quarter end, on August 6, 2024, Climb’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.17 per share of its common stock payable on August 22, 2024, to shareholders of record on August 16, 2024.

Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results

Net sales in the second quarter of 2024 increased 13% to $92.1 million compared to $81.7 million for the same period in 2023. This reflects organic growth from new and existing vendors, as well as contribution from the Company’s acquisition of DataSolutions Holdings Limited (“DataSolutions”) in October 2023. In addition, adjusted gross billings in the second quarter of 2024 increased 31% to $359.8 million compared to $274.7 million in the year-ago period.

Gross profit in the second quarter of 2024 increased 36% to $18.6 million compared to $13.7 million for the same period in 2023. The increase was driven by organic growth from new and existing vendors in both North America and Europe, as well as contribution from DataSolutions.

Selling, general, and administrative (“SG&A”) expenses in the second quarter of 2024 were $13.0 million compared to $11.6 million in the year-ago period. DataSolutions represented the majority of the increase at $1.3 million. SG&A as a percentage of adjusted gross billings decreased to 3.6% for the second quarter of 2024 compared to 4.2% in the year-ago period.

Net income in the second quarter of 2024 increased more than 2x to $3.4 million or $0.75 per diluted share, compared to $1.4 million or $0.31 per diluted share for the same period in 2023. Adjusted net income increased 19% to $3.8 million or $0.83 per diluted share, compared to $3.2 million or $0.72 per diluted share for the year-ago period. The Company’s earnings per diluted share in the second quarter of 2024 were negatively impacted by $0.03 in FX compared to the prior year quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter of 2024 increased 48% to $6.9 million compared to $4.7 million for the same period in 2023. The increase was primarily driven by organic growth from both new and existing vendors, as well as contribution from the Company’s acquisition of DataSolutions. Effective margin, which is defined as adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of gross profit, increased 310 basis points to 37.3% compared to 34.2% for the same period in 2023.

On June 30, 2024, cash and cash equivalents were $48.4 million compared to $36.3 million on December 31, 2023, while working capital increased by $2.8 million during this period. The increase in cash was primarily attributed to DataSolutions cash balance and the timing of receivable collections and payables. Climb had $1.0 million of outstanding debt on June 30, 2024, with no borrowings outstanding under its $50 million revolving credit facility.

For more information on the non-GAAP financial measures discussed in this press release, please see the section titled, “Non-GAAP Financial Measures,” and the reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to their nearest comparable GAAP financial measures at the end of this press release.

Acquisition of Douglas Stewart Software & Services, LLC

Climb closed on the acquisition of DSS on July 31, 2024, for an aggregate purchase price of $20.3 million payable at closing (subject to working capital and other adjustments), plus a potential post-closing earn-out. Climb funded the acquisition of DSS utilizing cash from the Company’s balance sheet.

DSS is a Wisconsin-based, specialist IT distributor focused on SaaS solutions for education customers serving resellers in the North America reseller market and was a separate division of the privately-held Douglas Stewart Company. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2024, DSS reported adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5.3 million, which was up 10% over the same period in the prior year.

Conference Call

The Company will conduct a conference call tomorrow, August 7, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time to discuss its results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2024.

Climb management will host the conference call, followed by a question-and-answer period.

Date: Wednesday, August 7, 2024
Time: 8:30 a.m. Eastern time
Toll-free dial-in number: (800) 245-3047
International dial-in number: (203) 518-9765
Conference ID: CLIMB
Webcast: Climb’s Q2 2024 Conference Call

If you have any difficulty registering or connecting with the conference call, please contact Elevate IR at (720) 330-2829.

The conference call will also be available for replay on the investor relations section of the Company’s website at www.climbglobalsolutions.com.

About Climb Global Solutions

Climb Global Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLMB) is a value-added global IT distribution and solutions company specializing in emerging and innovative technologies. Climb operates across the US, Canada and Europe through multiple business units, including Climb Channel Solutions, Grey Matter and Climb Global Services. The Company provides IT distribution and solutions for companies in the Security, Data Management, Connectivity, Storage & HCI, Virtualization & Cloud, and Software & ALM industries.

Additional information can be found by visiting www.climbglobalsolutions.com.

About Douglas Stewart Software & Services, LLC

DSS is a trusted expert in educational technology, spanning back over 37 years. With decades of experience and a commitment to innovation, DSS continues to lead the way in delivering cutting-edge solutions to empower educators and enhance learning experiences. DSS stands at the forefront of education technology distribution in North America.

Operating as a dynamic business unit of the Douglas Stewart Company, where education has been a focus since 1950, DSS works with top-tier Edtech providers to deliver solutions to K-12, Higher Ed, & Non-Profits through 800+ reseller partners. DSS was established in 2021 to cater to the distinct requirements of software subscription licensing (Software as a Service/SaaS) in North America.

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>>> Is BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) an Under-the-Radar Nuclear Energy Stock?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-nuclear-energy-stocks-buy-110000268.html

BWX Technologies (BWXT) is a top supplier of nuclear technologies, components, and fuel to the U.S. government, including U.S. naval submarines and aircraft carriers. BWX Technologies is actively growing its commercial nuclear power segment and other non-defense units.

BWXT owns one of the largest commercial nuclear equipment manufacturing facilities on the planet. BWXT is expanding that operation to “support ongoing and anticipated customers’ investments in Small Modular Reactors, traditional large-scale nuclear and advanced reactors, in Canada and around the world.”

BWX Technologies has landed deals and partnerships with GE Vernova, the Wyoming Energy Authority, Bill Gates-backed SMR company TerraPower, and beyond. BWXT’s beat-and-raise second quarter was supported, in part, by a growing “appetite for nuclear solutions across the global security, clean energy, and medical markets.”

BWXT is projected to post solid mid-single-digit sales and earnings growth in 2024 and 2025.

BWX Technologies stock has climbed 250% in the last 10 years to outpace the S&P 500’s 190% and its industry’s 110%. BWXT broke out to new highs last summer, with the stock up 38% the last 12 months.

BWXT is trading above its 21-week and 21-day moving averages while sitting 5% below its average Zacks price target.

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Gartner, Exponent, FTI Consulting - >>> 3 Stocks to Buy From the Prospering Consulting Services Industry


Zacks

by Arghyadeep Bose

Aug 1, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-stocks-buy-prospering-consulting-144000822.html


Gartner: This research and advisory firm is currently riding on higher compensation costs. The company’s research segment, which is its largest and most profitable segment, serves leaders across all functions of an enterprise in every industry and geography.

IT currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2024 bottom line has increased 1.7% in the past 90 days. Earnings are expected to rise 2.7% year over year in 2024. IT shares have gained 47.1% in the past year.


Exponent: This science and engineering consulting company is benefiting from its reactive business, driven by demand across the transportation, utilities and medical device sectors. The company’s proactive business is observing modest growth in the utility sector.

EXPO presently carries a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2024 bottom line has increased marginally in the past 90 days. Earnings are expected to rise 5.7% year over year in 2024. EXPO shares have gained 18.6% in the past year.


FTI Consulting: This business advisory services provider is benefiting from strong segmental revenues. The rise in Corporate Finance & Restructuring revenues has been driven by higher demand and realized bill rates for business transformation, and strategy and transaction services. On the Economic Consulting front, the company witnessed higher demand and realized bill rates for M&A-related antitrust and financial economic services. The Technology segment’s revenues are riding on higher demand for M&A-related second request services.

FCN currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 EPS has increased 3.2% in the past 90 days. Earnings are expected to rise 10% year over year in 2024. FCN shares have gained more than 18.1% in the past year.

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>>> Private equity giant Apollo invests $700 million in Sony Music


Reuters

Jul 26, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/private-equity-giant-apollo-invests-132347037.html


(Reuters) - Private equity behemoth Apollo Global Management has invested $700 million in high-profile record label Sony Music Group, allowing its clients an opportunity to invest in "high grade" alternative assets.

Apollo did not reveal the terms of the deal with Sony, which works with artists such as Lil Nas X and Celine Dion.

Booming demand for alternative investments has boosted the appeal of the music industry as investors look beyond traditional assets such as stocks and bonds, making it a popular asset class for Wall Street firms in recent years.

Heavyweights of the financial world are cashing in on the lucrative streaming rights and cash flows the industry offers.

"This investment allows our clients to invest in high grade securities while helping Sony to execute its business plans," said Jamshid Ehsani, a partner at Apollo said on Friday.

Apollo had also backed media and entertainment-focused investment firm HarbourView Equity Partners in 2021.

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>>> Watsco (NYSE:WSO) distributes air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment and related parts in the HVAC/R industry. I believe Watsco is poised to capitalize on the mega trend of people moving to the Sun Belt states, especially Florida. As more folks relocate to hotter climates, the demand for air conditioning will only intensify, particularly with worsening heat waves. Watsco did underperform in Q1 due to a traditionally slow season. In the short term, the stock could also see a small correction as it trades at a historically high premium versus its trailing twelve month earnings.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-florida-stocks-buy-capitalize-114500110.html

However, I expect more positivity in the summer quarter. Additionally, earnings beats could drive WSO stock much higher.

The company is seeing compounding growth in the HVAC sector, with its stock surging nearly 200% over the past five years. Watsco also rewards shareholders with a 2.23% dividend yield and recently boosted its annual dividend by 10% to $10.80 per share, marking its 50th consecutive year of paying dividends. With a strong balance sheet and a fragmented $64 billion North American market ripe for consolidation, Watsco appears well-positioned to ride the tailwinds of the southern migration trend.

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>>> Top dividend stock No. 2: Eli Lilly


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/want-decades-passive-income-2-113700915.html


For more than 140 years, Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) has used cutting-edge science to help people live better. The healthcare leader's history is chock-full of medical breakthroughs, but its latest discovery could be the most impactful and profitable one yet.

Almost 70% of American adults are obese or overweight, which can lead to life-threatening illnesses like diabetes, heart disease, and strokes. Fortunately, Eli Lilly has developed a game-changing drug that makes it easier for people to lose weight.

Zepbound, the pharmaceutical pioneer's weight-management treatment for adults, activates hormone receptors that reduce appetite. Participants in a 72-week clinical trial who received the highest dose of the drug lost 48 pounds on average.

When combined with diet and exercise, Zepbound also helped these people improve their cholesterol and blood pressure profiles. And tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Zepbound, can make it easier for adults with type 2 diabetes to control their blood sugar levels. Better still, recent studies suggest that tirzepatide could have positive effects for people with liver disease and sleep apnea.

Due to tirzepatide's many potential health benefits, CEO Dave Ricks believes it will be the most important medicine of his 28-year career. Wall Street seems to agree. Investment bank Goldman Sachs expects Eli Lilly to be a leader in an anti-obesity drug market that will soar to $130 billion by the end of the decade. The company's profits, in turn, are projected to increase by more than 60% annually over the next five years.

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>>> Cintas Board of Directors Approves 4-For-1 Stock Split


Business Wire

May 2, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cintas-board-directors-approves-4-201500865.html


Stock split to increase accessibility to all investors, including Cintas employee-partners.

CINCINNATI, May 02, 2024--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Cintas Corporation (Nasdaq: CTAS), a leading provider of business-to-business services, today announced that its Board of Directors approved a four-for-one split of its common stock. Shareholders of record, as of September 4, 2024, will receive three additional shares for each share held, which will be distributed after market close on September 11, 2024. Cintas’ shares are expected to begin trading on a post-split basis at the market open on Thursday, September 12, 2024. Prior to this announcement, Cintas’ most recent stock split was in 2000.

"At Cintas, we call our employees ‘partners’ in recognition of the value that each individual contributes to our success as a company. Our founder, Dick Farmer, also believed the importance of each employee-partner having ownership in the company to share collectively in that success," said Todd Schneider, Cintas' President and Chief Executive Officer. "Cintas shares are trading near record highs as a result of our steadfast focus on serving our customers. We believe that the time is right to split the stock and increase its accessibility to our employee-partners and investors so that they can continue to share in the future growth of Cintas."

The company expects that the stock split will increase the number of shares of Cintas’s outstanding common stock from approximately 101 million shares to approximately 404 million shares.

About Cintas

Cintas Corporation helps more than one million businesses of all types and sizes get Ready™ to open their doors with confidence every day by providing products and services that help keep their customers’ facilities and employees clean, safe, and looking their best. With offerings including uniforms, mats, mops, restroom supplies, first aid and safety products, fire extinguishers and testing, and safety training, Cintas helps customers get Ready for the Workday®. Headquartered in Cincinnati, Cintas is a publicly held Fortune 500 company traded over the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol CTAS and is a component of both the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and Nasdaq-100 Index.

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This is more my speed - Cintas (CTAS). What a great long term holding. The LT chart is about as great as it gets -


>>> Cintas Corporation (CTAS) provides corporate identity uniforms and related business services primarily in the United States, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Uniform Rental and Facility Services, First Aid and Safety Services, and All Other segments. The company rents and services uniforms and other garments, including flame resistant clothing, mats, mops and shop towels, and other ancillary items; and provides restroom cleaning services and supplies, as well as sells uniforms. In addition, the company offers first aid and safety services, and fire protection products and services. It provides its products and services through its distribution network and local delivery routes, or local representatives to small service and manufacturing companies, as well as major corporations. Cintas Corporation was founded in 1968 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio. Cintas Corporation was formerly a subsidiary of Cintas Corporation.

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Another microcap on a roll is M-Tron Industries (MPTI), which has tripled since last summer, but market cap still only 110 mil. Looks like it was spun out of LGL Group in Fall 2022, but LGL Group is even smaller, mkt cap only 32 mil, so this would require considerable research. Ah, the allure of microcaps, but a dangerous realm -


>>> M-tron Industries, Inc. (MPTI), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of frequency and spectrum control products. The company's products include radio frequency, microwave, and millimeter wave filters; cavity, crystal, ceramic, lumped element, and switched filters; high frequency and performance OCXOs, integrated PLL OCXOs, TCXOs, VCXOs, and low jitter and harsh environment oscillators; crystal resonators, integrated microwave assemblies; and solid-state power amplifier products. Its products are used in applications in the commercial and military aerospace, defense, space, and other commercial markets. The company was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida. <<<



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That IS a wild one. I looked more into what they do and it reads like gobbledy gook.
The only thing real I can find it that they continually disappoint with earnings....
that said, IF you are a gambler and flipper, today would be a good day to do so. It may be $38 next week and its $24 today.

Here's a wild one that came up on the radar - Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT). It's up over 10 fold since November, so a 'hot potato', but the market cap is only 345 mil range, so might be one to follow once it consolidates -


>>> Direct Digital Holdings, Inc. (DRCT) operates as an end-to-end full-service programmatic advertising platform. The company's platform primarily focuses on providing advertising technology, data-driven campaign optimization, and other solutions to underserved and less efficient markets on both the buy- and sell-side of the digital advertising ecosystem. It serves various industry verticals, such as travel, healthcare, education, financial services, consumer products, and other sectors with a focus on small and mid-sized businesses. The company was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas. <<<


>>> Market Mavericks: 7 Growth Stocks Outshining the Giants <<<


https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174009260



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Derf, The system is fairly new, but so far the individual stock portion has outperformed the S+P 500 by a sizable margin. Over time I figure it will even out, but hopefully it will approximate the S+P 500's returns.

The other appeal of all these stocks (over 200) is the collecting aspect. Not sure where that urge comes from, but I collect everything from rocks + minerals, to records, posters, even sea shells. So why should stocks be any different, lol. 'Stock collecting' is an interesting / fun hobby, and something to do in retirement. But.. the danger is veering into active trading, lower quality stocks, etc. Been there, done that (poorly), so will stick with long term / high quality stocks.




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Interesting....and now your returns?

Derf, >> cumbersome to sell AND you can quickly exit <<

The stock allocation is divided into two roughly equal parts -

1) Individual stocks (lots of them) and some sector ETFs

2) S+P 500 ETF


#1 is too cumbersome to sell, while #2 is easy to sell. So if a 2008 or 2020 type market meltdown is looming, you can quickly sell #2, and if necessary can also use the proceeds to hedge your #1 market exposure. So a 25% stock allocation can be instantly reduced in half, and then if desired, reduced to zero via an inverse ETF like SH. Even if you don't actually do it, the fact that it's available provides considerable peace of mind.

As John Bogle said, investors make the bulk of their profits by sitting tight and riding the stock market's long term uptrend. The key is to somehow manage the angst side of 'staying the course'. Buffett said the key to investing success isn't intellect, but temperament, ie managing one's emotional side. So that's what this system tries to do.



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OK, so I'm perusing through old posts by various posters here and come across $NVEI.
I can't recall without researching further whether I thought this stock was a scam or good play, but just yesterday it jumped about 30%+....Still know nothing about them, but it's not a penny stock.....although it may be due to a reverse split or something....dunno.

Hmmmm, It's weird after all these years, but also awesome to forget something exists then be able to look ahead to see if it worked....

https://www.linkedin.com/company/marketocracy

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090154/000089418904001823/marketocracyncsr.htm

In truth, I didn't put all that much effort into my picks and tended to take more risk than I normally would, or sat on too much cash.....or just forgot about managing it.

Well hold on thar......you can't exactly say it's cumbersome to sell AND you can quickly exit.

But the bottom line is, how have you done each year, 5 year rolling, 10 year avg?
Are you outperforming the S&P 500?

Some years back there was a website where, for fun you could create your own mutual fund and it would track it for you....Marketocracy I think???? Something like that. Anyway, they tracked it for you to see how you did. The interesting thing was after a year or so, they approached the best and offered to pay them to be money managers for others on there. Kind'a genius and I didn't see that coming (much like I didn't understand most of where the internet was going).....anyway, they offered me a deal to be one of their managers. I don't even recall how you got paid, but I wasn't interested. Seemed like too much work for too little pay.

Interesting. I hadn't thought about this in years, but just Googled it and found this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marketocracy

Dang it! Found the website but don't recall my password or username then
https://www.marketocracymasters.com/about

It's all coming back to me now.....I think Ken reached out to me and wanted a fee to continue tracking first. I told him my picks were payment and we agreed to disagree.

Derf, Yes, zero commissions make it easy to build your own custom ETF. I figure there are so many great stocks, why limit it to a handful or a few dozen. Some brokerages also have fractional shares with no commission, which comes in handy for buying high priced stocks like AZO, AVGO, etc.

Before the days of zero commissions, there was a site where you could create your own quasi ETFs and buy the entire thing for a single commission. Other investors could also buy your ETF if they liked it, and pay you a modest fee. I built a bunch of custom ETFs over there for several years, but once zero commissions took off, you could do the same thing for no cost at all. So now it's 'hog heaven' for us stock collectors. lol.

In addition to the diversification, part of the rationale for so many positions is that it's just too cumbersome to sell, so you are forced to 'stay the course' and hold long term. With the longer term mentality reinforced, the tendency then is to gravitate toward solid long term stocks, and these are relatively easy to identify based on their 10-15 year charts. So this gets around some basic investing problems - 1) staying the course, 2) having a short term mindset, 3) drifting into crappy stocks, 4) having to accurately micro-analyze individual stocks. None of us are a Buffett or Peter Lynch, but in my system you don't need to be.

The other side of this system is the large S+P 500 allocation. I figure this should be at least as large as the individual stock portion, and if another 2008 debacle or Covid crash is looming, you can quickly exit the S+P 500. Then with this safely in cash, you have reduced your market exposure by half, and also have the ability to hedge the remaining individual stock exposure, up to 100%, by buying an inverse ETF like SH. I've never done it, but the option is available. Anyway, that's the basic system I came up with. But everyone is different, so whatever works :o)



---

I sure hope you aren't paying much in commissions because I just can't fathom the way you buy stocks. It's like you own a mutual fund without the fund manager.
Is owning 1 share of 10 companies really better than owning 10 shares of 1?

Derf, >> PANW <<

Yes, a decent pullback, so may be a good entry point. I have a whopping 1 share at 284 (yippee), plus a similar small position in FTNT. Another good one is CYBR, though it looks overbought, as do the broader Cybersecurity ETFs like CIBR. I had a bunch of those during the big 2020-21 runup, but didn't get back into the sector until recently, with PANW, FTNT.

I see some analysts are concerned that PANW's newly announced business model (platformization) may signal that a price war could be brewing in the cybersecurity space, but still early. The firewall makers might also be headed for trouble due to the move to the cloud (article below). It's always something with these tech stocks, so I figure it's probably best to have small positions and spread the risk around -


>>> Cybersecurity Stocks To Watch Amid Shift To AI, Cloud <<<


https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174050760




---

Looks like a decent entry point now

PANW - >>> 1 Amazing Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Down 29% You'll Regret Not Buying on the Dip


by Anthony Di Pizio

Motley Fool

February 26, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-amazing-artificial-intelligence-ai-102900913.html


Cyber threats are a growing concern among the world's top businesses. Technologies like generative artificial intelligence (AI) are helping bad actors craft sophisticated attacks by creating hyper-realistic phishing emails, and voice recordings that can trick employees into handing over sensitive information.

In fact, 64% of the 4,702 CEOs recently surveyed by PwC believe generative AI will increase cybersecurity risk in their organizations over the next 12 months. It was their biggest concern when it comes to AI, outranking the spread of misinformation and potential legal risks.

Advanced cybersecurity tools that use AI to deliver smarter, more automated protection are required to combat these new-age threats -- and Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW) is a leader in that very field, but the stock has had a rough go of it lately.

The company recently released results for its fiscal 2024's second quarter (ended Jan. 31). That sent the shares plunging 29% as the company announced a shift in its business strategy. However, these new steps could bear fruit over the long term. Here's why investors should consider the stock now.

Palo Alto is a leader in AI-based cybersecurity

Palo Alto's business is split into three platforms: network security, cloud security, and security operations. The company is gradually weaving AI through many of the products under those banners to give businesses the most advanced protection possible.

Here's a notable statistic. Palo Alto says 93% of security operations centers within organizations still rely on human-led processes. Cybersecurity managers are under such a heavy workload that 23% of incidents are left uninvestigated, which creates an unacceptable number of vulnerabilities.

Palo Alto's Cortex XSIAM security operations platform was designed to solve that problem. AI and automation are at its core, and for one large customer, it has reduced the number of incidents that require manual investigation by 75%. Another customer now has 90% of their security incidents solved by automation, up from 10% prior to adopting XSIAM. XSIAM was launched a little over one year ago, and it has already amassed a revenue pipeline worth $1 billion.


But the AI opportunity is just heating up. Organizations and their employees will be using AI an increasing amount in the coming years, and Palo Alto says security isn't yet front and center. They could be accessing AI in an insecure manner that places their critical data at risk, and plugging those vulnerabilities could be a $5 billion opportunity by 2030.

Plus, Palo Alto says the frequency of phishing emails has increased 12-fold over the last year because of AI's ability to generate them instantly. According to CrowdStrike, 90% of successful cyberattacks originate at the endpoint -- the computer or device used by each employee -- making it the most vulnerable part of every company.

Phishing emails tend to target those employees, and since Palo Alto already protects roughly 100 million individual users, it has a huge opportunity ahead in limiting the damage.

A strong Q2, but reduced full-year forecast

Palo Alto delivered $2 billion of revenue in the second quarter, marking a 19% increase from the year-ago period. It also delivered $1.46 in non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share, which was a 39% increase. Palo Alto was profitable on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis, too, although the result benefited from a large one-off income tax benefit.

The point is, this company is delivering revenue growth without substantial losses at the bottom line, unlike many of its competitors, which are still burning through cash each quarter. Palo Alto's remaining performance obligations (RPOs) also soared 22% to $10.8 billion, which typically converts to revenue over time.

However, Palo Alto's management team unexpectedly reduced its forecast for both RPOs and revenue for the fiscal 2024 full year. The company is undergoing a major strategy shift to position itself for accelerated growth in the future.

The shift toward platformization

The cybersecurity industry is fragmented, with companies often piecing products together from different providers based on their needs. Historically, Palo Alto has relied on the quality of its products to attract its customers to use more of them.

I mentioned earlier that Palo Alto's business is split into three platforms. Well, the lifetime value of customers using all three platforms is 40 times greater than those using just one. Therefore, incentivizing large customers to use Palo Alto for all of their needs could drive enormous growth in the long term.

The problem is that large organizations often have existing contracts with their cybersecurity providers and can't simply opt out whenever they please. So, Palo Alto is offering them fee-free periods to capture them while they are still contracted with a competitor. Then, once that contact runs out, they will convert into paying customers for Palo Alto.

It's a great strategy that forgoes short-term revenue (hence the drop in billings and revenue guidance) in exchange for potentially significant growth in the long term. Plus, it squeezes out Palo Alto's competitors in the process.

Why Palo Alto stock is a buy now

Palo Alto believes the accelerated shift to platformization will help the company reach $15 billion in annual revenue by 2030, 90% of which will be recurring revenue, creating a stable and reliable business.

Considering that the company expects to deliver $8 billion in revenue during fiscal 2024, hitting that goal would translate to an 87.5% increase between now and then -- or a compound annual growth rate of 11%.

However, Palo Alto thinks there could be upside to its $15 billion target thanks to AI. That isn't surprising given that so many companies developing AI technologies are delivering explosive growth right now. The truth is, nobody knows exactly how much the threat landscape might be altered by sophisticated AI-based attacks, so the true size of Palo Alto's long-term opportunity is hard to discern.

So, while investors rushed for the exits following the reduction in Palo Alto's guidance, the 29% drop in its stock price presents an opportunity for investors who are willing to hold for the long term. They might be glad they bought in when they look back on this moment in a few years, assuming Palo Alto's vision becomes reality.

<<<



---

>>> PTC for the new manufacturing world

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-great-value-stocks-set-172200800.html

This industrial software company's solutions lie at the heart of the digitization of the manufacturing sector. Its computer-aided design (CAD) software helps customers digitally create and modify designs. The products that are designed can be digitally analyzed and tested via simulation before they are built. This interface between the physical and digital worlds continues with PTC's product lifecycle management (PLM) software. Meanwhile, its Internet of Things (IoT) software digitally integrates products and assets.

Digital technology is revolutionizing manufacturing and helping reduce product development times while creating so-called "closed loop" manufacturing, whereby data is being constantly analyzed to improve production iteratively, and can even lead to adjustments to the product design.

These are hot concepts in modern manufacturing plants, and PTC is a leader in the field. The company continues to grow its annual run rate revenue, a figure that represents its recurring revenue, at a mid-teens growth rate, and it's likely to drop down into significantly more free-cash-flow generation in the coming years. Wall Street analysts have PTC growing its free cash flow to around $1 billion in 2026, putting the stock at a ratio of 20 times estimated 2026 free cash flow at the current price. That's a good value for a company growing at a mid-teens rate.

<<<



---

>>> Is Prologis Stock a Buy?


by Reuben Brewer

Motley Fool

March 2, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prologis-stock-buy-141800671.html


Prologis (NYSE: PLD) has a market cap of $120 billion, making it one of the largest publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) you can buy. There's a good reason it's so large, but size alone is no reason to buy the stock of a company. In fact, Prologis, despite being a well-run company, may be a less than desirable choice for some investors. Here's what you need to know.

Prologis' business is big, diversified, and attractive

Prologis owns warehouses, which is not unique at all in the REIT sector. What sets it apart from its peers is the size and diversification of its portfolio. Prologis owns 1.2 billion square feet of leasable space spread over 5,500 properties across four continents and 20 countries. No other warehouse REIT comes close to those statistics.

Notably, the properties Prologis owns are mostly located in key global distribution hubs. So not only is its portfolio big, but its properties are located where its over 6,700 customers want to operate. Given its scale, meanwhile, Prologis can actually offer something of a one-stop shop for customers with global operations.

On top of that, the company has been benefiting from leases ending and being resigned at materially higher rates. So there's built-in growth within the active properties it owns. Prologis, however, also owns over 12,000 acres of developable land around the world. That's another $40 billion growth opportunity, by management's estimate.

Now add in a decade of dividend growth at a compound annual rate of around 11%. That's an attractive track record for any company, but particularly impressive for a REIT. The most recent annual increase was 10%, so the company is still going strong on this measure. Given the business backdrop, meanwhile, there's good reason to think the dividend growth story will continue. If you are a dividend growth investor, Prologis could be a very attractive choice.

Prologis' yield is both good and bad

Prologis is currently offering investors a 2.8% dividend yield. If you're looking to live off of the income your portfolio generates, that probably won't be the least bit exciting to you. The average REIT, using Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSEMKT: VNQ) as a proxy, is offering a yield of over 4.1%. This is a dividend growth stock, not a high-yield stock.

That said, the dividend yield is around the middle of the road if you look at the REIT's yield range over the past decade. So while it would be hard to suggest the stock is cheap right now, it also doesn't look expensive, using yield as a rough proxy for valuation. If you're a growth-and-income or dividend growth-focused investor, a fair price for a well-positioned industry giant like Prologis is a pretty attractive proposition.

But the stock isn't trading at depressed levels, so value investors will probably also want to take a pass here. A yield above 3% would be a far more compelling entry point if you're value conscious. However, even that might not be enough to entice a yield-focused investor.

A fair price for a great company

Prologis is not a value stock, and it's not a high yield stock. It will probably never be either of those things, given its strong industry position. But it is a solid option for dividend growth and growth-and-income investors. While it looks fully priced today, it's not a bad thing to pay a fair price for a well-run company if you have a long investment horizon.

<<<



---

2 year play
CEO buyout in two years

X 1. Cash Flow Positive Status - 5 years
X 2. Purchase main building housing their cGMP registered facility for research, development, manufacturing and packaging of pharmaceutical products.
X 3. Adderall IR $335 Million Approved and Launched
X 4. Adderall XR $1.56 Billion Approved and Launched
X 5. Double digit quarterly revenues in millions
X 6. In house marketing and distribution: Kirkov
X 7. Prasco/Burel Adderall agreement starting January 1st 2024
X 8. First shipment Adderall XR to PRASCO Dec 2023
X 9. DEA increases manufacturing quotas for Adderall & Vyvance
X 10. Generic Vyvanse - $5.1 BILLION - FDA submission Dec 2023
X 11. FDA Acceptance of Generic OxyContin Sept 2023
__12. $50 million in yearly revenues
__13. Generate revenues over $20 million/quarter
__14. Generic OxyContin Approval -;FIRST TO FILE Aug 17, 2023 $720 Million
__15. Prevail over Purdue in Generic OxyContin infringement suit - 6 month stay
X 16. Lease additional manufacturing space and storage vault for new Needle Mover ANDAs Jan 2024
__17. European distribution - Dexcel partnership approval by Israeli Health
__18. Full ownership of Adderall IR $ 335 Million
__19. Full ownership of Adderall XR $ 1.56 Billion
__20. Generic Concerta- $1.2 BILLION FDA submission
__21. Vigabatrin - VigPoder approved Pyros $233 Million trade mark challenge
__22. $100 million in yearly revenues
__23. Dopamine Agonist (probably Requip XL or Mirapex ER). $12 Million
__24. Patented Unique ADF (w/o naltrexone)-- NDA
__25. Mikah ANDA (s)
__26. Undisclosed ANDAs/NDAs
__27. Antimetabolite ANDA- Methotrexate -$600 Million - unconfirmed
__28. Undisclosed Antimetabolite ANDA- $42 Million
__29. Generic Vyvanse Approval
__30. DollarLand PPS
__31. Uplist to the NASDAQ Exchange
__32. ELTP Elite Pharmaceutical Buyout - less than 2 1/2 years from Feb 2024
__33. Vegas Baby !!!!!!!

What would Mr. Hakim say is the likelihood that Elite will get bought out by a large rival within the next five years?

Ya had to know SMCI would respond like "tulipmania". Like I told you before it got there....$1000 was going to be a trigger point and it just depended on who'd be first to sell. I guess the stock needed a "roaring kitty" to calm the masses, but that money was so fast and easy, people weren't going to wait to find out its true worth. After all, I'd bet more than half the people who bought it, didn't have a clue what the company did.
My guess is $555 is a support level, but you really can't tell since it went up so quickly. The fact that my selling too soon cost me a new Volvo kind of ticks me off.
The spousal_unit keeps reminding me how much I made on it though.....who wants calm and reasoning at a time like this?!!

edit: just looked it up. Current support is at $300...THREE HUNDRED!!! But that's gonna rise quickly over the days. I'll stick with the $555 guess only because it's somewhere in the middle of reality.
Meanwhile, I don't know why I never jumped into NVDA...other than I guess I didn't understand it.
What is $AI doing wrong?

Derf, With SMCI, I figure it had to have a correction / pullback eventually, and as you predicted, 1000 was a logical near term top. But interest in Ai is going to continue for some time, so these Ai stocks should have continued interest from investors.

Other Ai related stocks like NVDA and PLTR are still remaining buoyant today, so we'll see where SMCI goes from here. Chart-wise it's tough to say since the move up was so large and fast. The only real point of reference support-wise would be the rising 50 MA at 438, but it was 'left in the dust' by the big move, so it's anyone's guess where support areas will be right now. Possibly around the 600-700 area, but just a guess, and more likely it might only retrace to 800, or 700 - 800 (?) I'm just going to hang with it since AI isn't going away, and the remaining shares are essentially 'free' after the double.

The PLTR chart is still suggesting another leg up to 30. It has that 'pregnant pause' look to it, so might have another near term blast (to 30), though after that who knows. I'm not that enamored with PLTR, but figure a small position makes sense.




---

SMCI may fall faster than GME.....People late to the game will be pissed today as they realize they were both too late to buy and too late to sell.
Any predictions how far it falls today before a dead cat bounce?

I guess I hit that one right. Up about 40% in it.

Looks like PLTR could be poised for another up leg? That's how the current chart looks anyway. I have a tiny position, but am not a huge fan of the company.



---

Nice job. I kept forgetting to buy AVGO on several occasions.

Derf, In addition to Ai, the semiconductor related stocks in general have been doing well. I have some AVGO, KLAC, MPWR, which have great long term charts. Munger said he never liked the semi sector because it's so capital intensive, and the companies have to continually spend to upgrade their equipment, which hurts profitability. But in recent years the sector has been going gangbusters. 10 years ago Broadcom was already a fairly big player, but the stock is up 50 fold in a decade, so pretty amazing.



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Good job. I do see it has hit $999 today. Considering I had bought at $37, it may well be one of those once in a lifetimes, but sure wouldn't want to end up like the GME people who have kept their shares.
For some dumb reason, I'm currently buying conservative stocks, when AI does seem like the play. Picking the right one is the tricky part.

Again, there was a time when all managers strived to beat the index. The only fund family I see doing it with any consistency now is American Funds.....which is who I use mostly.

Derf, I took your advice with SMCI and took some profits today. It had doubled in 3 weeks, so I sold half and will keep the other 'free' half for the longer term. Looks like it should reach 1000 soon, but I figure no sense getting too greedy. A double in 3 weeks was pretty exciting, albeit only a small position.

Looks like the Ai space is entering bubble territory, but conceivably may keep elevating way beyond the point of reason. So a sign of a frothy market, but what will end the party? Lots of geopolitical landmines out there right now, which the market has so far been ignoring. Also, I figure the election uncertainty and angst will become more of an issue by summer. But hopefully there's a 'window' of months before Wall Street's party runs into trouble.




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Derf, >> S&P index fund. It is the only fund guaranteed to underperform the index <<

It will only underperform by the fund's expense ratio, which is negligible (0.02%, 0.03%, or for the SPY 0.09%)

The problem with stock picking is that hardly anybody can beat the S+P 500's return over time. Active managers might get lucky for a few years, but then they underperform for the next period of years. Even a whiz like Buffett or Peter Lynch owe most of their overperformance to the early years when they had much less $$ to deploy, and could thus have concentrated positions. Unfortunately as stock pickers, none of us are in their league, or even close.

So might as well face it, Jack Bogle was right ---> use a low cost index fund for the bulk of one's stock allocation. I add in a bunch of individual stocks, but these are just minor add-ons to help keep it fun / interesting. The unfortunate reality seems to be that -- 'the more you trade, the more you lose' / underperform. That's been my experience anyway.




---

Hey, I love Warren as much as the next guy (provided the next guy isn't bar1080), but no one ever talks about his ability to get inside information AND not have to report his sales like a mutual fund would.
I am NOT a fan of buying an S&P index fund. It is the only fund guaranteed to underperform the index. Of course almost all mutual fund managers have become panty wastes and more afraid of risk than they are overperforming the market. There was a time the Index was far below average. If ya gotta buy the S&P, I prefer $RSP where at least you're getting an equal weighting. The time WILL come when the big 6 stocks don't carry the market. Although I read now that all the cool kids have left the FAANG and moved on to the MAMAA. 26% of the S&P right there!

Anywho, my only point with your stocks posted is, at they are typically at their all time high. Not a place I like to start out....unless its SCMI.

Derf, >> find a way to spot these breakout stocks a week earlier <<

That would help for trading, but my strategy has evolved into mainly buy / hold. Trading can be fun, but I figure that buy / hold should produce the best results by simply riding the stock market's historical long term uptrend, and using a broad index like the S+P 500 to eliminate the vagaries of picking stocks and sectors.

But I figure that also having a group of individual stocks makes sense. It's not only a fun and interesting hobby, but having a group of individual stocks also makes it too cumbersome to sell, so that forces you to 'stay the course' with at least something. Meanwhile, since the S+P 500 ETF component can be sold off quickly, this reduces the angst of feeling trapped in a deteriorating market.

Anyway, Buffett says the #1 challenge we have as investors is controlling our temperament / emotions, so the idea is to minimize the angst aspects down to a manageable level. Anyway, still a 'work in progress', but it seems to be producing much better results than my earlier forays into active trading. So, boring but better results, and the individual stock side is still fun to follow even though the positions are relatively small. Everyone is different, but for nervous nellies like me, I figure the key is getting the right balance.



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Well, it certainly poisoned my board. We went from a fun loving and informative sharing of thoughts, to some people demanding I boot others, and others too angry to think objectively.
On the positive side, an ineffective government is good for the economy and Wall Street. Let 'em argue amongst themselves, it keeps them from finding a reason to tax me further.
There is no right any more from either side of the aisle. I'd root for a good clear thinking third party if one could be created. However, as I've always said, no intelligent person suited to be President would ever want to BE President.

So, first off....the media is calling for $1000 for this stock, so expect people thinking that's an exit point. Better to be a bit early than a bit late (although not in my case).....Personally, if I were you, I'd be happy over $950. Its like earnings reports, everyone now wants to sell in advance.

BTW, just noticed how many different boards you moderate! Geez! How have I never run across you before?
You need to find a way to spot these breakout stocks a week earlier than you do. I'm guessing, you have a computer setting to spot stocks moving up a certain percent, or maybe based on volume. If you can hone a better criteria, you'll be onto something. I'd suggest a sector tracker.
If you are unaware of Tommy Dorsey and his point and figure system, it may be just the thing for you.

Derf, >> no benefit of arguing politics <<

Yes, it's an area where people's objectivity has largely been switched off. The political landscape can play a role in the stock markets, ie whether the oil/gas sector is in vogue, or the dog house, etc. But US politics has become so divisive that it can easily 'poison the well' on I-Hub boards.



---

I've never seen that guy's posts before, but doing a quick reading through the years, I like his thought process.
Although, he does waste a bit too much time trying to argue politics around here.
Funny, I'll argue all day over the lack of value of a penny stock, but see no benefit of arguing politics with people who aren't in my voting area anyway.

Derf, Btw, looks like SMCI is likely heading for the 1000 level, which is where I'll probably take some profits. It's a miniscule position, but nice to see it zooming. But the 'Ai mania' may indicate the market is getting over-frothy.

Fwiw, I'm figuring the stock and bond markets could have a tailwind over the next several years, thanks to falling % rates, lower inflation, and a resilient economy. But also lots of landmines out there -- geopolitical, war, election angst, regional bank problems, etc. 30% is about all I'm willing to risk on the stock allocation side, and will 'hope for the best'.

On the positive side (for the US / West), it looks like BRICS expansion has been blunted, with Argentina deciding to not join BRICS, and Saudi Arabia also putting its BRICS plans on hold. So a reprieve for the US and the Petrodollar system, at least for now.


The BRICS Juggernaut -

https://investorshub.advfn.com/The-BRICS-Juggernaut-30100



---

Derf, >> Lithium <<

It turns out there's a glut of lithium supply, which has tanked the price and most of the lithium plays -


Battery metals glut - >>> Base Metals Up, Gold Edged Higher, Battery Metals Glut <<<

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173718639


A good source of info on this area is the poster n4807g (link below). I've re-posted some of his posts on my 'Energy Storage' board.
It's been a frustrating area for investors, along with the rare earths and strategic metals in general. I only follow them very loosely -


Re-post - >>> With price of Spodumene continuing to slide have decided to sell most of my remaining PILBF. I expect the 1st half of 2024 (and maybe beyond) to be a difficult year for battery minerals. Better to lock in profits today and look for lower prices in the 2nd half of 2024. <<<

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173546830


Energy Storage Sector -

https://investorshub.advfn.com/Energy-Storage-38181

Strategic Materials -

https://investorshub.advfn.com/Strategic-Materials-37554



---

Every one of these sucks....

A while back I went searching for a trustworthy lithium stock to buy. I didn't find one so settled on the ETF, $LIT. It did not work and I don't understand why?
I do know of several Chinese and Russian companies that have made deals to buy up rare earth mines in California. Not even sure why our government allows this. IF, the government truly sees this as the future, why are we not mining and hoarding??

>>> Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) Reports Robust Revenue Growth and Solid Earnings in Q4 and Full ...


GuruFocus Research

Feb 12, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/medpace-holdings-inc-medp-reports-213433201.html


Revenue Growth: Q4 revenue increased by 26.5% to $498.4 million, and full-year revenue jumped by 29.2% to $1.885.8 million.

Net Income: Q4 GAAP net income rose to $78.3 million, with a net income margin of 15.7%. Full-year net income reached $282.8 million.

Earnings Per Share: Diluted EPS for Q4 was $2.46, up from $2.12 in the prior-year period. Full-year diluted EPS increased to $8.88.

EBITDA: Q4 EBITDA grew by 19.2% to $95.8 million, representing an EBITDA margin of 19.2%. Full-year EBITDA was $362.5 million.

Backlog and Book-to-Bill Ratio: Backlog as of December 31, 2023, increased by 20.2% to $2.813.0 million, with a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.23x for Q4.

2024 Financial Guidance: Medpace forecasts 2024 revenue in the range of $2.150 billion to $2.200 billion, with GAAP net income expected between $326.0 million and $348.0 million.

Liquidity and Share Repurchase: Cash and cash equivalents stood at $245.4 million, and the company repurchased 781,068 shares for $144.0 million in 2023.

On February 12, 2024, Medpace Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:MEDP) released its 8-K filing, announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2023. The late-stage contract research organization, known for its full-service drug development and clinical trial services, reported significant revenue growth and an increase in net income, reflecting a strong performance in a competitive industry.

Financial Performance Highlights

Medpace's revenue for Q4 2023 reached $498.4 million, a 26.5% increase from the $394.1 million reported in the same period last year. This growth was attributed to a backlog conversion rate of 18.5%. The full-year revenue also saw a substantial rise, with a 29.2% increase to $1.885.8 million compared to the previous year. The company's net new business awards for Q4 were $614.7 million, marking a 26.7% increase from the prior-year period and resulting in a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.23x.

GAAP net income for Q4 was $78.3 million, or $2.46 per diluted share, compared to $68.7 million, or $2.12 per diluted share, for the same quarter in the previous year. The net income margin slightly decreased to 15.7% from 17.4% in Q4 2022. For the full year, GAAP net income was $282.8 million, or $8.88 per diluted share, up from $245.4 million, or $7.28 per diluted share, in 2022.

EBITDA for Q4 2023 increased by 19.2% to $95.8 million, representing an EBITDA margin of 19.2%. The full-year EBITDA also grew by 17.7% to $362.5 million. These financial achievements underscore Medpace's ability to efficiently manage its operations and maintain profitability in the Medical Diagnostics & Research industry.

Operational and Strategic Developments

Medpace's operational efficiency is reflected in its direct costs and SG&A expenses. For Q4 2023, total direct costs were $361.6 million, and SG&A expenses were $42.5 million. The company's balance sheet remains strong, with cash and cash equivalents of $245.4 million as of December 31, 2023. Medpace generated $156.4 million in cash flow from operating activities during Q4 2023 and repurchased 781,068 shares for $144.0 million throughout the year.

Looking ahead, Medpace provided its 2024 financial guidance, forecasting revenue in the range of $2.150 billion to $2.200 billion, which would represent a growth of 14.0% to 16.7% over 2023 revenue. The company also anticipates GAAP net income for the full year 2024 to be between $326.0 million and $348.0 million, with EBITDA expected in the range of $400.0 million to $430.0 million.

Medpace's continued investment in its global infrastructure and its disciplined approach to clinical development have positioned the company for sustained growth. With a strong financial foundation and a clear strategic direction, Medpace is well-equipped to navigate the dynamic landscape of the biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical device industries.

For more detailed information on Medpace Holdings Inc's financial results, investors and interested parties are encouraged to review the full 8-K filing.

Explore the complete 8-K earnings release (here) from Medpace Holdings Inc for further details.

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