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SPY 330.02 = 55-day EMA
SPY daily closes chart -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&st=2016-11-18&i=p70195665971&a=523791343&r=1600450077293
339.93 = 21-day SMA, which resides far above this week's SPY high seen so far
positive 168 Advancers minus Decliners today
for the S&P 500 index, which is only
so, so for a 1% upward gain by $SPX
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%21NETADSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p37198349571&a=422175840&r=1596930825001
$SPX 3310.47 = a potential "make it or break it" price level
to surpass on a lasting basis for the future bullish case
$SPX 30-minute -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p39298918343&a=661020318&r=1600286258455
S&P 500 index percentage of stocks above
their 20-day EMA is at 17% as of Monday's September 21st close,
which represents a firmly bearish condition until an actual
upward improvement takes place by this metric
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p50167057108&a=702407785&r=1596941621860
S&P 100 index percentage of stocks above their 20-day EMA
is at 16% as of Monday's September 21st close
=================
$SPX and $OEX percentage of stocks above their 20-day EMA was as shown below on Friday August 7th close:
80.8% for $SPX
83.0% for $OEX
* the August percentage values are substantially below the monthly high values for this metric seen in June & July ,
which represents important Negative Divergence that will likely be actionable unless this internal
for both indices improves soon along with the upward price action seen last week
* two of the three $OEX internals reside at their customary
upper levels, and bulls need all three to remain
within or above the broad 75 to 90% range,
and
the higher level the better for the bullish case
daily $OEX chart with three $OEX internals -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&i=p55670041540&a=340963852&r=1583205795342
SPY 325.58 = 15-week SMA,
which now resides above today's price action at this moment
day low so far today is 321.73
SPY weekly showing the 15 simple moving average shaded
on the chart in light green -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=W&yr=2&mn=5&dy=0&i=p30051282942&a=625675189&r=1600709267524
SPY has not achieved a daily close
below its 55-day EMA since early May 2020,
so bulls and bears both require vigilance
if a chart character change for SPY actually
takes place for consecutive multiple days
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&st=2016-11-18&i=p70195665971&a=523791343&r=1600450077293
SPY now has multiple consecutive days/weeks
achieving daily closes below its 21-day SMA
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&st=2016-11-18&i=t9974367332c&a=523791343&r=1600217243738
will intraday support at the 55-day EMA eventually fail to hold for future daily closes when tested from above by intraday price action?
SPY and $NYA price bars vs. 50-day EMA vigilance in
the context of the $NYAD daily histogram chart -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=13&i=p63162874436&a=624707621&r=1599684720117
* 50-day EMA vigilance is constructive for the bullish case,
as of the close Wednesday September 9, 2020
* the NYSE cumulative net Advancers minus Decliners line has declined to test the 50-day SMA from above
and
has now sharply bounced from the most recent A-D line low
SPY has not recently closed a single day
below its daily 21,2 lower Bollinger Band
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p16612807292&a=286429918&r=1586300495239
** shown above is the SPY daily price closes in the context
of smoothed $NYAD
* SPY daily closes need a lasting hold above the SPY
21-day SMA to have any chance of upward Staying Power
* SPY and $SPX bulls need price improvement to be supported by
upward direction lasting multiple days/weeks for the daily $NYAD moving averages
SPY daily price closes in the context
of smoothed $NYAD -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p16612807292&a=286429918&r=1586300495239
* SPY daily closes need a lasting hold above the SPY
21-day SMA to have any chance of upward Staying Power
* SPY and $SPX bulls need price improvement to be supported by
upward direction lasting multiple days/weeks for the daily $NYAD moving averages
daily chart including --
S&P 500 cumulative net Advancers minus Decliners line
S&P 500 daily net A-D values
SPY price action
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%21NETADSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p37198349571&a=422175840&r=1596930825001
* bulls need steady and large improvement lasting multiple days/weeks in the daily S&P 500 net A-D values,
or
an upward price recovery by SPY & $SPX is not likely to have Staying Power
* bulls need SPY to achieve a lasting hold above its 15-day SMA
chart #2 -- SPY daily with
126,2 Bollinger Band settings
and 63,2 Bollinger Band -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p51155575197&a=663833113&r=1596571568090
* bulls need price to hold on a lasting basis above 335.62 horizontal, a prior intraday high
334.87 was last week's intraday low
chart #3 -- $OEX daily -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&i=p55670041540&a=340963852&r=1583205795342
SPY and $SPX bulls need price to hold on a lasting basis above the
$OEX 21-day SMA
SPY daily with my brief comments - as of Tuesday Sept 1, 2020 close --
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p50167057108&a=702407785&r=1596941621860
* most of the chart elements other than the price action are NOT especially bullish for forecasting more immediate upward price action by SPY,
unless these multiple S&P 500 internals and indicators actually improve to the upside
and
improve soon & steadily by more than a marginal amount
/ES 3527.86 = the daily 21,2 upper Bollinger Band value as of shortly after the Tuesday September 1, 2020 cash market close
/ES 3512.00 = the daily 21,2 upper Bollinger Band value as of shortly after the Monday August 31, 2020 cash market close
$SPX and $OEX percentage of stocks above their 20-day EMA is:
* the percentage of $SPX & $OEX stocks above their 20-day EMA has sharply declined this week
56.4% - August 20
63.0% - August 19
70.2% - August 18
78.8% - August 14
80.8% - August 7
$OEX -- 60% on August 20 vs. 64% on August 19 vs. 85% on August 14 vs. 83.0% on August 7
$SPX and $OEX percentage of stocks above their 20-day EMA is:
$SPX in recent days -
* the percentage of $SPX stocks above their 20-day EMA has sharply declined this week
63.0% - August 19
70.2% - August 18
$SPX -- 78.8% on Friday August 14 vs. 80.8% on August 7
$OEX -- 64% on August 19 vs. 85% on August 14 vs. 83.0% on August 7
$SPX percentage of stocks above their 20-day EMA, daily chart -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%21GT20SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p16189262697&a=607251685&r=1597701242314
* the August percentage values are substantially below the monthly high values for this metric seen in June & July ,
which represents important Negative Divergence that will likely be actionable unless this internal
for both indices improves soon along with the upward price action seen last week
* only one of the three $OEX internals reside at their customary
upper levels, and bulls need all three to remain
within or above the broad 75 to 90% range,
and
the higher level the better for the bullish case
daily $OEX chart with three $OEX internals -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&i=p55670041540&a=340963852&r=1583205795342
using customized momentum settings, the $SPX 30-minute has weakening momo vs. earlier weeks for the recent eleven consecutive days ...
intraday upward momo has been shallow and relatively short-lived
$SPX 30-minute with a single focus on using two MACD settings & the 50,2 Bollinger Band -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p71038296302&a=661020318&r=1597793335208
** Monday & Tuesday this week & all five days last week printed S&P 500 net Advancers minus Decliners daily values less than +250,
with the highest value so far at plus 186 ... shown below in reverse order --
this is NOT stellar net A-D for price to be advancing with probable upward Staying Power unless the daily prints improve for the A-D:
minus 164 - Tuesday August 18
minus 6 - Monday August 17
plus 38 - Friday
minus 146
plus 186
minus 48
plus 179 - Monday
$SPX and $OEX percentage of stocks above their 20-day EMA is:
$SPX -- 78.8% on Friday August 14 vs. 80.8% on August 7
$OEX -- 85% on August 14 vs. 83.0% on August 7
$SPX percentage of stocks above their 20-day EMA, daily chart -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%21GT20SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p16189262697&a=607251685&r=1597701242314
* the August percentage values are substantially below the monthly high values for this metric seen in June & July ,
which represents important Negative Divergence that will likely be actionable unless this internal
for both indices improves soon along with the upward price action seen last week
* two of the three $OEX internals reside at their customary
upper levels, and bulls need all three to remain
within or above the broad 75 to 90% range,
and
the higher level the better for the bullish case
daily $OEX chart with three $OEX internals -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&i=p55670041540&a=340963852&r=1583205795342
using customized momentum settings, the $SPX 30-minute has weakening momo vs. earlier weeks for the recent ten consecutive days ...
intraday upward momo has been shallow and relatively short-lived
$SPX 30-minute with a single focus on using two MACD settings & the 50,2 Bollinger Band -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p49697975356&a=661020318&r=1597457710066
** Monday this week & all five days last week printed S&P 500 net Advancers minus Decliners daily values less than +250, with the highest value so far at plus 186 ... shown below in reverse order -- this is NOT stellar net A-D for price to be advancing with probable upward Staying Power unless the daily prints improve for the A-D:
minus 6 - Monday August 17
plus 38 - Friday
minus 146
plus 186
minus 48
plus 179 - Monday
using customized momentum settings, the $SPX 30-minute has weakening momo vs. earlier weeks for the recent nine consecutive days ...
intraday upward momo has been shallow and relatively short-lived
$SPX 30-minute with a single focus on using two MACD settings & the 50,2 Bollinger Band -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p49697975356&a=661020318&r=1597457710066
** all five days this week printed S&P 500 net Advancers minus Decliners daily values less than +250, with the highest value so far at plus 186 ... shown below in Friday to Monday reverse order -- this is NOT stellar net A-D for price to be advancing with probable upward Staying Power unless the daily prints improve for the A-D:
plus 38 - Friday
minus 146
plus 186
minus 48
plus 179 - Monday
using customized momentum settings, the $SPX 30-minute at SC has weakening momo vs. earlier weeks for the recent eight consecutive days ...
intraday upward momo has been shallow and relatively short-lived
$SPX 30-minute with a single focus on using two MACD settings & the 50,2 Bollinger Band -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p08095355659&a=661020318&r=1597195366789
** all four days this week have printed S&P 500 index net Advancers minus Decliners daily values less than +250, with the highest value so far at plus 186 in the following Thursday reverse to Monday sequence -- this is NOT stellar net A-D for price to be advancing with probable upward Staying Power unless the daily prints improve for the A-D:
minus 146 - Thursday
plus 186
minus 48
plus 179 - Monday
updated $SPX 30-minute with a single focus on using two MACD settings & the 50,2 Bollinger Band -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p08095355659&a=661020318&r=1597195366789
SPY 335.77 = the newest multi-month bounce high printed
Monday August 10 - during regular market hours
vs.
336.12 UBB value observed just after today's close
vs.
334.89 the prior record daily close high achieved in mid-February 2020 ( using dividend-adjusted price history for the look-back on the chart )
/ES 3357.25 = the new bounce high printed Monday August 1 - printed before today's cash market close
vs.
3363.33 UBB value observed just after today's close
positive 179 = August 10 daily net Advancers minus Decliners for the S&P 500 index, which represents a modest #, however the relative absence of net Decliners on any day is what is most significant in recent days as supporting the case for potential continued upward price movement for SPY and $SPX
cumulative and daily values for the S&P 500 index Advancers minus Decliners are visible in this daily chart -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=!ADLINESPX&p=D&st=2019-10-31&i=p09170486617&a=607135436&r=1586705560320
Note - Bollinger Band setting in use for SPY and /ES futures is the daily 21,2 BB
$SPX and $OEX percentage of stocks above their 20-day EMA is:
80.8% for $SPX
83.0% for $OEX
* the August percentage values are substantially below the monthly high values for this metric seen in June & July ,
which represents important Negative Divergence that will likely be actionable unless this internal
for both indices improves soon along with the upward price action seen last week
* two of the three $OEX internals reside at their customary
upper levels, and bulls need all three to remain
within or above the broad 75 to 90% range,
and
the higher level the better for the bullish case
daily $OEX chart with three $OEX internals -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&i=p55670041540&a=340963852&r=1583205795342
revised $OEX daily with 63,2 BB & selected S&P 100 index internals -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p56275129257&a=340963675&r=1596933369082
* Friday August 7 concludes two consecutive daily prints by $OEX
near the 63,2 upper Bollinger Band, which is a firmly bullish condition
only while price remains near the UBB for multiple days/weeks
SPY 334.88 = the newest multi-month bounce high printed
Friday August 7 - during regular market hours
/ES 3347.25 = the new bounce high printed Friday August 7 - took place in the settlement period following the cash market close
/ES 3347.00 = the daily 21,2 upper Bollinger Band value as of shortly after the Friday August 7 cash market open
vs.
/ES 3347.25 overnight high, which represents the newest multi-month bounce high since March
/ES 3318 = 5-day Volume Point of Control based on the prior 5 days of price action - an important potential bull/bear pivot value ....
bullish while above and bearish only while below
/ES 3245.08 = the Weekly pivot value for the current week ending August 7 ... it is rare that a Weekly pivot is not tested sometime during each week
/ES 3205.58 = the Monthly pivot value for August 2020
* using Volume by Price analysis, /ES bulls need price to hold above the 3342.25, 3322.50 & 3295.25 horizontal levels on a lasting basis in order to merit upward traction with probable Staying Power
757.12 = daily 50,2 upper Bollinger Band at the Thursday August 6 close
** it is a firmly bullish chart condition only while the price action remains near or above a rising UBB
S&P Composite 1500 index daily chart with selected cumulative & daily internals for this index -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SUPHLP&p=D&st=2018-06-22&i=p94257737311&a=623831152&r=1595166881422
* the S&P 1500 index daily closes remained above the rising 15-day SMA for all of July 2020 & bulls want to see this continue
SPY daily -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p76670184958&a=714601505&r=1596755785113
* the red horizontal line I placed marking a common reversal level from the upper boundary region
of the 15,3,6 Full Stochastic is now briefly surpassed as of the Thursday August 6, 2020 close
SPY 334.46 = the newest multi-month bounce high printed
Thursday August 6 - during regular market hours
/ES 3344.00 = the new bounce high printed Thursday August 6 during regular market hours before the cash market close --
and new bounce high of 3345.50 took place in the hour following the cash market close
/ES 3338.70 = the daily 21,2 upper Bollinger Band value as of shortly after the Thursday August 6 cash market close
/ES 3318 = 5-day Volume Point of Control based on the prior 5 days of price action - an important potential bull/bear pivot value ....
bullish while above and bearish only while below
/ES 3245.08 = the Weekly pivot value for the current week ending August 7 ... it is rare that a Weekly pivot is not tested sometime during each week
/ES 3205.58 = the Monthly pivot value for August 2020
* using Volume by Price analysis, /ES bulls need price to hold above the 3342.25, 3322.50 & 3295.25 horizontal levels on a lasting basis in order to merit upward traction with probable Staying Power
Bloomberg featured this comment with the Chart of the Day on Friday June 5, 2020 -
The S&P 500 Index’s biggest-ever gain over 50 trading days “offers a reason to think stock prices may be even higher this time next year,” according to Ryan Detrick, a senior market strategist at LPL Financial LLC. Detrick made the comment in a post Thursday on LPL’s research blog. The index rose for the 50 days ended Wednesday June 3rd by 40%, the most since it was restructured to include 500 companies in 1957, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Peak gains of more than 20% occurred seven times between 1975 and 2009, and the S&P 500 moved higher each time in the next 12 months. The average advance was 17%.
/ES 3333.78 = the daily 21,2 upper Bollinger Band value as of shortly after the Thursday August 6 cash market open
/ES 3318 = 5-day Volume Point of Control based on the prior 5 days of price action - an important potential bull/bear pivot value ....
bullish while above and bearish only while below
/ES 3245.08 = the Weekly pivot value for the current week ending August 7 ... it is rare that a Weekly pivot is not tested sometime during each week
/ES 3205.58 = the Monthly pivot value for August 2020
using Volume by Price analysis, /ES bulls need price to hold above the 3322.50 & 3295.25 horizontal levels on a lasting basis in order to merit upward traction with probable Staying Power
end of the month & middle of the month strategies -
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-no-1-market-timer-of-the-1980s-and-1990s-has-this-message-for-buy-and-hold-investors-now-2020-07-13
/ES 3323.60 = ending value at the cash market close on August 5 for the daily 21,2 upper Bollinger Band
=================
SPY 332.39 = the newest multi-month bounce high printed
Wednesday August 5 - during regular market hours
/ES 3323.25 = the new bounce high printed Wednesday August 5 --
took place during regular market hours
754.60 = daily 50,2 upper Bollinger Band at the Wednesday August 5 close
** it is a firmly bullish chart condition while the price action remains near or above a rising UBB
S&P Composite 1500 index daily chart with selected cumulative & daily internals for this index -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SUPHLP&p=D&st=2018-06-22&i=p94257737311&a=623831152&r=1595166881422
* the S&P 1500 index daily closes remained above the rising 15-day SMA for all of July 2020 & bulls want to see this continue
SPY 332.39 = the newest multi-month bounce high printed
Wednesday August 5 - during regular market hours
/ES 3323.25 = the new bounce high printed Wednesday August 5 --
took place during regular market hours
the five stocks which are the most price influential in the calculation of the moment to moment price value for SPY & the S&P 500 index -
Change in Market Capitalization dollar amount --- change since the Start of 2020:
the five most influential stocks because of their Market Cap dollar size and the 495 remaining stocks comprising the S&P 500 index
SPY 330.06 = the newest multi-month bounce high printed Tuesday August 4 - during regular market hours
/ES 3300.50 = the new bounce high printed Tuesday August 4 -- took place very near the cash market close
SPY 329.62 = the newest multi-month bounce high printed today August 3 - during regular market hours
/ES 3295.50 = the bounce high printed today August 3 -- during regular market hours
SPY daily with $VIX at the bottom of the chart
with the $VIX 63,1 Bollinger Band & 200-day EMA -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&i=p33176836928&a=663833113&r=1596344802363
VIX, which closed at 24.46 on July 31, "has been trading above its historic average
for 111 trading days, with 117 trading days
representing the longest trade above its mean since January 11 of 2012,
according to Dow Jones Market Data."
SPY 321.68 = 4-week SMA value at the July 31 close, and bulls want to see weekly closes continue to reside above the rising 4-week SMA
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=W&yr=2&mn=5&dy=0&i=p10736027663&a=625675189&r=1596326967424
* weekly RSI-14 has not yet surpassed the key 60 level by more than a slight distance above
S&P Composite 1500 index daily chart with selected cumulative & daily internals for this index -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SUPHLP&p=D&st=2018-06-22&i=p94257737311&a=623831152&r=1595166881422
* the S&P 1500 index daily closes remained above the rising 15-day SMA for all of July 2020 & bulls want to see this continue
$SPX short-term A-D oscillators by Carl Swenlin reside below their
zero line for multiple days on July 31 -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p19639217710&a=354480616&r=1596304189212
SPY daily closes chart with $SPX and $NYSE # of new highs & new lows -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p12095042636&a=592217701&r=1595185863319
$NYA continues to hold the 21-day SMA as support during intraday declines & bulls need to be vigilant when future tests from above occur
===================
SPY 327.33 = the high printed July 21 in pre-market trading
$SPX 30-minute with a single focus on using two MACD settings & the 50,2 Bollinger Band -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p51068559101&a=661020318&r=1595353947496
smoothed daily $NYAD and the $NYMO have been weakening since
3rd week in July ...
without a lasting upward movement by the two from their July 31st location,
the future bullish outcome is less likely for US equities
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p16612807292&a=286429918&r=1586300495239
* bulls do not want to see the $NYAD's 8-day SMA cross below its zero line for multiple days
* $NYMO 21-day EMA needs to remain above the zero line
$OEX daily with 63,2 BB and $OEX internals -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p12306148313&a=340963675&r=1595352722115
* it is some degree of Neg D that the # of 52-week price highs for $OEX remains below the early July high for this internal
revised SPY 60-minute using 50,2 BB and showing five other indices -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=22&i=t8925081901c&a=626690906&r=1596294496207
* the SPY lower BB was not violated during any day in July 2020
$SPX to $OEX daily ratio's late July bounce failed & reversed
below its upper Bollinger Band, which is a negative for considering that the the 500 stocks
in the S&P 500 index are equally participating with the S&P 100 stocks in upward price action
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX%3A%24OEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&i=p49657268405&a=578604193&r=1596293724220
* bulls want the ratio to hug the upper Bollinger Band for multiple days
** the Negative Divergence of the ratio's July high vs. the June and February 2020 is a stellar amount
long-term history does present the reality that SPY and $OEX upward price action is sustainable for
multiple months when the $SPX is under performing
the $OEX and hugging the ratio's lower Bollinger Band
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