$WTIC $Oil - 'Hammer' on the Red Ledge. Will it reverse? Hopefully. We'll see...
By: Sahara | March 14, 2025

• $WTIC $Oil - 'Hammer' on the Red Ledge.

Will it reverse? Hopefully. We'll see...



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The Energy Report. Give Peace A Chance
By: Phil Flynn | March 14, 2025

Democratic war mongers continue to be dismayed at President Trump’s ceasefire initiatives between Russia and Ukraine. I guess they believe that the only good Russian is a dead one. The far left compares Vladimir Putin to Hitler but they also compare Trump to Hitler. So, for them it’s like Predator versus Alien. So the only answer they have is more funding for death and destruction and an endless quagmire because as you know it was Putin that invaded Ukraine.

While Mr, Putin is not a nice guy and I am sure he has a vision of Russia regaining its former Soviet territory and building a new Russia. The reality is that the West and Ukraine was not always on the up and up with Putin either. I guess we should all long for the simple days like when Hillary Clintion gave the Russian’s a big reset button because the mean Republicans did not think he was our friend. Or like when President Barack Obama told failed Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney that the 1980’s called and want their foreign policy back.

Yet despite all the noise from the left, energy markets are starting to bet that President Trump gets his ceasefire. The big players are confident that President Trump will get his ceasefire and are already looking at cutting deals. Bloomberg reported Russian and European officials say the US is exploring ways to work with energy giant Gazprom PJSC on global projects, a step toward forging closer ties with the Kremlin while trying to broker a peace deal on Ukraine. European assessments suggest there have been preliminary contacts between US and Russian representatives on the issue, but it’s not clear who’s leading the conversations or whether the Trump administration is directly involved, according to people familiar with the matter. The White House declined to comment. Discussions between the US and Russia about possible collaboration with Gazprom are at an early stage, according to the people who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations according to Bloomberg.

The biggest beneficiary of a potential ceasefire would be Europe. As a group they desperately need Russian energy and had they listened to President Trump years ago, it probably wouldn’t have been as acute of a situation but instead Europe decided to laugh. Europe’s not laughing anymore. Not only have they been called out by President Trump for their trade abuses, they’re now in a trade war and really are going to need Russian energy. Until they can transition to more US energy, one of the ways that Europe could help their situation when it comes to the trade war is to drop their tariffs and increase their purchases of American liquefied natural gas as well as some of that beautiful light sweet shale oil.

The trade war caused significant disruption in energy markets yesterday leading to a sell-off. However, with market stabilization and oil showing positive movement, there is optimism. With summer approaching, refiners will need to ramp up production to replenish gasoline supplies quickly.

Despite the concerns of tariffs on China, we are seeing a lot of US energy continued to go to Asia. The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. propane exports averaged a record 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, the most since we began collecting this data in 1973. U.S. propane exports increased for each of the last 17 years, with growth driven by higher demand in East Asia, mainly China, and a widening propane price differential between U.S. and global benchmarks. Propane is consumed globally in the residential and commercial sectors for uses such as space heating. It’s also used as a petrochemical feedstock to produce propylene and ethylene, key feedstocks in plastic production.”

Record U.S. propane production has supported the rise in propane exports. Propane production, which is a byproduct of natural gas processing and crude oil refining, has increased rapidly over the past 10 years as U.S. natural gas output has grown. Higher propane production has led to lower U.S. propane prices relative to Asia, underpinning the record export levels.

Infrastructure investments have also played a crucial role in accommodating growing shipments. Expansion projects at U.S. propane export terminals that started up in 2019 and in 2023 have allowed U.S. exports to increase by more than 700,000 b/d. U.S. propane exports surpassed 2 million b/d in November 2024 for the first time, as petrochemical and space heating demand in Asia increased.

Natural gas supply has been affected by weather. Make sure you download the Fox Weather app. Yesterday, we tested $400 and bounced, making $400 the support line. Looking ahead, supply may create a potential long-term bottom across the curve. The EIA reported that working gas in storage was 1,698 Bcf as of March 7, 2025, decreasing by 62 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 628 Bcf less than last year and 230 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,928 Bcf. At 1,698 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

The FOX Forecast Center said that multiple days of potent thunderstorms could bring destructive winds, large hail, and significant long-tracked tornado activity (EF-3 or higher). The main action on Friday will come in the form of a powerful squall line of storms which is expected to develop during the afternoon across Missouri and Iowa and charge east through the Mississippi Valley, the FOX Forecast Center said.

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Crude Oil Struggles at Key Support, Reversal Pattern Emerges
By: Bruce Powers | March 13, 2025

• Crude oil remains under pressure, consolidating near $65.50 support. A potential double bottom hints at a bullish breakout, but resistance near $69.26 may challenge upward momentum.

Downward pressure on the price of crude oil remained on Thursday. It is set to end lower for the day following an attempt earlier in the trading session to break out above Wednesday’s high. The low for the current decline was $65.50, which was $15.36 or 19% below the most recent swing high at $80.76. Since finding support crude has been consolidating above $65.50 for the past six days. The consolidation pattern has taken the form of a potentially bullish double bottom reversal pattern.

An upside breakout of the pattern will be signaled on a rise above the neckline of the pattern at $68.37. At the time of this writing crude continues to trade near the lows of the day, which was $66.45. And it could go lower before the end of the day. The high for the day was $68.03.



Long-Term Support Being Tested

Recent support around $65.50 has some significance as it is near support from September of last year at $65.65, prior to the current decline, was the low price for crude oil since May of 2023. Following the 2023 low traded price, crude oil rallied to a peak of $95.50 before progressing lower and establishing a slow downtrend of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Therefore, the drop to $65.50 recently established a slightly new low for the bear trend.

There are reasons to believe that support may be retained at that low and lead to at least a bounce before being challenged again. For one, the bearish correction from the $80.76 mid-January high was the deepest bearish correction of the prior four larger corrections, but not by much. There was an 18.3% decline from an August swing high, which was the largest decline of the four.

Rally Above 20-Day MA Would Show Strength

Although a bullish signal will be generated on a breakout of the double bottom, a potentially significant resistance zone is slightly higher from around $68.74 to $68.82. However, the 20-Day MA trend indicator, currently at $69.26, marks a more significant price area, along with a downtrend line. Since it is falling the 20-Day line may be within the price zone by the time it is approached. Subsequently, a lower swing high is at $70.81.

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Natural Gas Declines Below Trendline, Eyes Deeper Correction
By: Bruce Powers | March 13, 2025

• Natural gas struggles after breaking trend support, facing resistance at $4.13. Further declines may target the 50-Day MA at $3.83.

Natural gas continued to pull back from recent highs on Thursday, triggering a drop below a rising trendline. That followed a decline below trend support around the 20-Day MA (purple) on Wednesday. The breakdown was confirmed by a daily close below the 20-Day line. Nonetheless, support was seen today at $3.97, thereby completing a 50% retracement.

An intraday rally followed that low to establish a high for the day at $4.20. If natural gas closes the day below the 20-Day line, now at $4.13, it will represent a test of resistance around the 20-Day line, which was support previously. Therefore, the bearish correction may continue unless there is a rally above today’s high of $4.20 and a subsequent daily close above the 20-Day line.



Short Term Bull Trend at Risk

Support around the 50-Day MA was successfully tested as support during the prior bearish decline following the January swing high. Therefore, if the trend breakdown continues lower then natural gas looks to be targeting the 50-Day MA (orange), now at $3.83. A sustained decline below the 20-Day MA enhances the potential for a test of support of the next higher moving average. There is also potential support around the recent swing low at $3.74.

It is joined by the 61.8% retracement at $3.72. A decline below that low will trigger a bearish reversal of the short bull trend that began from the late-January swing low at $2.99. Notice that the 20-Day MA has stayed above the 50-Day line since the 20-Day crossed above the 50-Day in September of last year, other than for a brief period recently. The bullish crossover followed a swing low at $1.88 in late August, which began a new upswing of a larger developing bull trend.

Trend Slope Adjustment

Also, since the immediate trendline may have been broken, the next lower trendline becomes a potential target. Notice that the lower rising trendlines show an acceleration in bullish momentum as the uptrend from the February 2024 bottom progressed. The most recent trendline shows an unsustainable rate of price appreciation. Since there has been a clearly bearish reaction following another test of resistance around the top of a rising parallel trend channel, there is the possibility that the next lower trendline may be tested before the current decline is complete.

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Commodities Daily Market Movers (% Price Change)
By: Marty Armstrong | March 13, 2025

• Top Movers

LME Cobalt Cash Composite 15.03 %
Palm Kernel Oil 4.86 %
Cheese 2.99 %
Tokyo Rubber Futures 2.45 %
NY Crude Oil Futures 2.16 %

• Bottom Movers

NY Natural Gas Futures 8.29 %
Canola Futures 2.98 %
ICE Newcastle Coal Continuous 2.93 %
Corn (CBOT) Futures 2.04 %
Coffee (NYCSCE) Futures 1.78 %

*Close from the last completed Daily

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Natural Gas Challenges Trend Support at 20-Day MA
By: Bruce Powers | March 12, 2025

• Following a failed breakout, natural gas is facing pressure near $4.07, with potential for a deeper retracement toward $3.95 or lower if support breaks.

Natural gas continued its bearish pullback on Wednesday, reaching a low of $4.07 and finding support for the day at the 20-Day MA (purple). The low of the day was a six-day low and the 20-Day line is now at $4.11. A test of support at the 20-Day MA followed a bearish reversal of a one-day shooting star candlestick pattern from Monday. Trading continues to be dominated by the sellers as the price of natural gas remains near the lows of the day at the time of this writing. Therefore, a lower price may be seen before the end of Wednesday’s trading session.



Second Test of Support at 20-Day Line

Following a swing low of $2.99 from late-January, natural gas reclaimed its 20-Day MA on February 13. Shortly thereafter, the advance accelerated and subsequently encountered resistance around the top trendline of a large rising parallel trend channel. That led to a decline and an eventual higher swing low at $3.74. Support around the 20-Day MA and the 50-Day MA (orange) were successfully tested around the swing low as it was followed by a bullish key reversal day. The current decline is testing support around the 20-Day line for the first time it was tested in mid-February.

Two Lines Show Dynamic Trend Support

Initial dynamic trend support for the current bearish pullback is around the 20-Day MA and internal uptrend line. If support is maintained around those lines, then the structure of the uptrend from $2.99 remains intact. But a decisive drop below both lines will indicate the potential for a deeper retracement. But further signs of weakening would be needed to further confirm the breakdown.

There is always the possibility of a false breakdown that quickly reclaims the trend support lines. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $4.17 failed to show support on the way down today. This opens the possibility of an eventual test of support around the 50% retracement level at $3.95. Of course, the 20-Day line and trendline would be broken before then.

Strong Resistance at Top Channel Line

Resistance has been encountered around the top line of a rising channel multiple times since the December interim swing high. On Monday, a bullish breakout of the channel led to a new trend high of $4.90 and then a failure of the breakout given the quick bearish reversal and subsequent downside continuation. Therefore, it is possible that a bearish correction could test lower support levels, below the trendline, before it is done.

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Crude Inventories Rise By 1.4 Million Barrels; WTI Oil Tests Session Highs
By: Vladimir Zernov | March 12, 2025

Key Points:

• Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased from 395.3 million barrels to 395.6 million barrels.
• Domestic oil production grew from 13.508 million bpd to 13.575 million bpd.
• Oil markets gained ground as traders reacted to the EIA report.

On March 12, 2025, EIA released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The report indicated that crude inventories increased by +1.4 million barrels from the previous week, compared to analyst consensus of +2 million barrels.


More information in our economic calendar.

Gasoline inventories decreased by -5.7 million barrels, while analysts expected that they would drop by -2 million barrels. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by -1.6 million barrels from the previous week.

U.S. crude oil imports declined by 343,000 bpd, averaging 5.5 million bpd. Over the past four weeks, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.8 million bpd.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased from 395.3 million barrels to 395.6 million barrels as the U.S. resumed oil purchases for strategic reserves.

Domestic oil production increased from 13.508 million bpd to 13.575 million bpd. The key question is whether rising domestic production highlights the start of the new trend, which may push domestic oil production towards the 14.0 million bpd level. In this scenario, oil markets may find themselves under more pressure.

WTI oil moved higher as traders reacted to the EIA report. Traders focused on falling gasoline inventories and ignored rising domestic oil production. Currently, WTI oil is trying to settle above the $67.50 level.

Brent oil moved above the $70.50 level after the release of the EIA report.

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Ceasefire Hopes Trump All. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 12, 2025

While the market freaks out about the Trump Trade wars, hope for a Trump ceasefire and a pause in the killing in the Russia Ukraine quagmire raises hopes for peace and lower oil prices. After a wildly volatile session in stocks, reports that Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire overshadowed the trade war fears. Reuters reported that Ukraine said it is ready to accept a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in its conflict with Russia, following hours of talks with U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia. Reports say that the U.S. will now take the offer to Russia.

President Trump said he hoped for a swift ceasefire and thought he would talk to Putin this week. “I hope it’ll be over the next few days.” “The ball is today clearly in the Russian camp,” said French President Emmanuel Macron. Russia’s foreign ministry said it did not rule out contacts with U.S. representatives over the next few days. How Moscow would respond was far from certain. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he is open to discussing a peace deal. But he has ruled out territorial concessions and said Ukraine must withdraw fully from four Ukrainian regions claimed and partly controlled by Russia. The U.S. also agreed to resume military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

While Ukraine realizes it’s to their advantage to go along with President Trump’s desire for a ceasefire, Iran is still being obstinate. Reuters reported that, “Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran would not negotiate with the U.S. while being threatened, telling President Donald Trump to “do whatever the hell you want”, Iranian state media reported on Tuesday. “It is unacceptable for us that they (the U.S.) give orders and make threats. I won’t even negotiate with you. Do whatever the hell you want”, state media quoted Pezeshkian as saying.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Saturday that Tehran would not be bullied into negotiations, a day after Trump said he had sent a letter urging Iran to engage in talks on a new nuclear deal.

That will increase the odds that the US and Israel are headed towards a potential conflict and the possibility that oil tankers with Russian oil will be stopped and seized by the United States. It also means the Houthi rebels have new life and now they are saying that they’re going to resume causing havoc in international shipping lanes. Al Jazeera reported that Yemen’s Houthis have announced that they will resume attacks on Israeli ships after their deadline for Israel to allow the resumption of aid deliveries into Gaza passed. The armed group said late on Tuesday that it was “resuming the ban on the passage of all Israeli ships” in the Red Sea because Israel failed to honor the deadline the Houthis announced on Friday. Yemen’s Houthis said they will block ships passing through the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

The Iranian regime is the biggest supporter of the Houthi rebels so they may have a bit harder time getting cash and equipment.

Against this backdrop we got the Short-Term Energy Outlook from the EIA that showed that global oil demand was higher than previously predicted and exceeded global supply. A weekly report from the American Petroleum Institute reported a big seasonal drop in gasoline supply that is showing they are getting rid of the winer blends ahead of ramping up for those beautiful and expensive summer blends.

Let’s start with the EIA. The EIA admitted that they missed on their projection of supply and demand and reported that it underestimated demand and overestimated supply. The IEA said the global oil demand came in at 105.17 million barrels a day while global supply came in at 103.92 million barrels a day in February. The EIA said that, “Global oil markets will remain relatively tight through the middle of 2025 before gradually shifting to oil inventory builds later this year. We expect global oil inventories will fall in the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) in part due to decreasing crude oil production in Iran and Venezuela. As a result, the Brent crude oil spot price in our forecast rises from about $70 per barrel (b) to $75/b by 3Q25. However, we expect oil inventories will build and place downward pressure on crude oil prices in late-2025 and through 2026 when we expect OPEC+ unwinds production cuts and non-OPEC oil production grows. As a result, we forecast the Brent crude oil price will fall to an average of $68/b in 2026.

The API reported a 4.247 increase in crude oil supplies as refiners are running at low rates. They are in maintenance to switch over to the summertime blends of gasoline so out with the old and in with the new. The out with the old means that we got a 4.56 million barrel drop in gasoline inventories. We should get some support from the fact that Cushing, OK oil inventories fell by 1.196 million barrels and distillate inventories were slightly higher up 421,000 but are still well below the average range for this year because of a much colder than expected winter.

What this report also suggests is that the bottom in oil should be close and that soon refiners will have to ramp up their production of gasoline. And generally that happens towards the end of March into April and that’s when we should see prices start to increase.

A lot of focus will be on China demand as they ramp up commodity purchases. JODI reported today that China’s crude oil imports fell by 542 kb/d in December while total product imports were up by 96 kb/d m/m.

Obviously, the concerns about tariffs are keeping the reporting agencies on edge. We know that the Trump administration wants to continue to pressure oil prices lower. Some members of the oil industry are hesitant about President Trump’s advocacy for increased drilling, partly due to the impacts of Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases that broke the market. Scott Sheffield from Pioneer Resources mentioned that much of the prime shale acreage has already been drilled. MSN Reported that Scott Sheffield, the former CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, the shale company thought to have (had) the deepest inventory depth: “one of the main reasons that Pioneer sold was…we were running out of Tier 1 inventory. Everybody is running out of Tier 1 inventory. People don’t talk about the fact that we are running out of inventory.” The twilight of US shale is upon us.

The EIA also had an interesting take on natural gas as a cold winter changes the nature of the market. The EIA reported on natural gas consumption and inventories. Cold weather during January and February led to more consumption of natural gas and large withdrawals of natural gas from inventories. We now expect natural gas inventories to fall below 1.7 trillion cubic feet at the end of March, which is 10% below the previous five-year average and 6% less natural gas in storage than we had expected last month. We also increased our forecast for overall electricity generation over the next two years. As a result, we now expect the electric power sector will use more than 36 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas on average in 2025 and 2026, 2% and 1% more, respectively, than last month. Overall, we expect natural gas in storage to be 4% lower in 2025 and 3% lower in 2026 compared with what we had forecasted last month.

Natural gas prices. Because we now expect more consumption of natural gas in 2025 and 2026 and less natural gas in storge, we have raised our forecast Henry Hub spot price. We expect the Henry Hub price will average around $4.20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, 11% more than last month’s forecast. We expect the annual average price in 2026 will be near $4.50/MMBtu, up 8% from last month.

It also shows you that in the natural gas market, despite what you think you might know about the fundamentals, weather has the final say and that’s why you have to download the Fox Weather app. The FOX Forecast Center is continuing to monitor the potential for a multiday severe weather outbreak that could blast cities across the central and eastern U.S. with thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and even some tornadoes. Forecasters have been keeping their eyes on computer forecast models and now say the threat of severe weather will continue through the weekend, placing tens of millions of people living along the East Coast on alerts for powerful thunderstorms by Sunday. The FOX Forecast Center said it is most concerned about what could potentially take place starting Friday, but severe weather is also possible on Wednesday and Thursday.

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Crude Oil Struggles Near Lows, Bearish Momentum Persists
By: Bruce Powers | March 11, 2025

• Downward pressure persists as crude oil struggles near multi-year lows, with support at $65.40 critical for determining the next move.

Downward pressure in the price of crude oil remained on Tuesday as last week’s low of $65.40 was again tested as support. That was also the low for a downswing that completed a $15.36 or 19% decline from the January peak of $80.76. The price of crude hit a low of $65.41 on Tuesday and established a lower daily low and lower daily high. At the time of this writing, it looks likely that it will close neutral but leaning towards bearish, near the middle of the day’s trading range.



Lowest Price Since May 2023

Last week’s low was the lowest traded price for crude oil since a spike in volatility was seen during the first week in May 2023. It indicated the potential for a continuation of the downtrend that began from the September 2023 highs. Also, it marks a potentially significant support zone, particularly since crude has already fallen significantly in the current bearish correction.

What is the chance that new lows will see enough selling pressure to keep the price of crude falling? Certainly, it is less than it might be if crude was falling through long-term support from a closer beginning point, such as a bearish continuation pattern for example. Nonetheless, a decisive decline below $65.40 could see a drop to test support around the May 2023 lows.

Strength Indicated Above $67.27

On the upside, there are no signs of a potential bullish reversal until Tuesday’s high of $67.27 is exceeded. If that price level triggers, crude could test an interim swing high of $68.38. That swing high is part of the downtrend price structure. If it is reclaimed, then crude will show signs of improving demand and it will trigger a bullish reversal as a prior swing low will have been exceeded.

Depending on when it happens, a double bottom breakout may also trigger. The convergence of several lines around $70.23 will then define the next higher potential resistance zone. That zone includes a downtrend line, a rising trendline across support starting from September of last year, and a horizontal level from an interim swing low from late-December.

Key Resistance at 20-Day MA

However, the 20-Day MA, at $69.80 currently, defines the more significant potential resistance area. Keep in mind that since the 20-Day line is falling. Therefore, it may reach the price zone mentioned above prior to or when natural gas reaches the zone.

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Natural Gas Faces Bearish Pullback After False Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | March 11, 2025

• A shooting star candlestick signals potential weakness in natural gas, but key support levels could define whether a deeper pullback or recovery follows.

Following a false bull breakout on Monday, natural gas triggered a breakdown from a potentially bearish one-day shooting star candlestick pattern on Tuesday, but momentum subsequently died. At the time of this writing, it is set to complete a relatively narrow range day from $4.38 to $4.59.

A drop below Monday’s low of $4.45 triggered the shooting star pattern, yet the decline found support relatively close by at $4.38. Where the day ends should provide clues. A daily close below $4.45 would confirm a breakdown from the bearish candle, while a closing price above that level shows less selling pressure than might be expected.



Signs of Bearish Continuation

Tuesday’s price action established a lower daily high and lower daily low. It is important to notice the day’s high as it shows a successful test of resistance at the nearby trend line. In other words, natural gas found resistance at the trendline, which was support during Monday’s sharp rally above the line. This can more easily be seen in an intraday chart (not shown).

It indicates that the market has recognized the price area around the line as it has done more than a few times since late December. This is short-term bearish behavior that points to a likely deeper decline. The trendline is the top parallel trend channel line for a large channel where the bottom trendline connects to an August 2024 swing low.

Potential for a Test of Trend Support at $4.08

A drop below today’s low of $4.38 will signal a continuation of the bearish pullback. The current advance, beginning from the $2.99 swing low from January 31, shows potential trend support around the 20-Day MA at $4.08 and an internal uptrend line. More significant potential support is around the 50-Day MA, now at $3.81. Moreover, the recent interim swing low at $3.74 is significant in that it partly defines the price structure of the uptrend.

Short-term Bullish Above $4.59

Nonetheless, natural gas remains in a developing uptrend formation in the near term and should recover once it has completed a deeper pullback, if that is what is to come. If the price exceeds Tuesday’s high of $4.59, it is advisable to consider the upper trendline as a resistance level. Otherwise, a daily close above the line could lead to prices rising instead of a pullback.

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In crude oil, the commercials have been net short to varying degrees since 2009...
By: Tom McClellan | March 10, 2025

• In the COT Report, "commercial" traders are ones who produce or use the subject commodity in their trade or business. In crude oil, the commercials have been net short to varying degrees since 2009. Right now they are at a very small net short position, a bottoming sign.



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Oil Stood Strong. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 11, 2025

While the stock market sold off on fear over reality, oil stood strong with only modest risk-off selling. Perhaps it was the fact that the bulls have abandoned the long side, with a bullish position near a 14-year low! Perhaps they are running out of people to sell, Mortimer. Or maybe it was their realization that despite the expected increase in oil production from OPEC, it’s not going to be enough barrels to significantly move the needle on global inventories. In fact, the market is starting to look so tight as you look out further than even the International Energy Agency, who I’ve criticized for decades because they became the green energy agency, is calling for increasing the production of fossil fuels.

Reuters reported that, “Fatih Birol, the director of the Paris-based International Energy Agency, said on Monday there is a need for investment in oil and gas fields to support global energy security. The comment puts the energy watchdog for industrialized nations more in line with President Donald Trump’s pro-drilling agenda, after it came under pressure from fossil fuel advocates years ago for proposing an end to new oil and gas projects.” Either that or the IEA got hit with a dose of reality after their disastrous calls to end all investment in fossil fuels.

As the stock market freaked out on recession fears, the oil market was suggesting that a recession is not in the cards. In fact, the fears were so evident that they saw an accumulation of a record amount of put option positions and that suggests that when you see something like that, the crowd is almost always wrong. Tariff concerns may be alleviated because US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and suggesting that oil and gas may be exempted from tariffs. Bloomberg is suggesting that concern about President Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on US imports of Canadian oil is waning as the duties’ start date keeps getting pushed back, strengthening local crude prices.

Secretary Wright also suggested that he would cancel all mandated oil sales from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve which means that they are serious about refilling the reserve and should be a put for the price of oil and make it unlikely that we will fall below $60.00 in the short term.

And because of Biden’s manipulation of the market with releases from the strategic petroleum reserve, they disrupted the market in such a way that oil and gas producers according to Reuters are unlikely to increase spending this year and output increases will primarily come from improved efficiencies rather than new drilling citing Baker Hughes Chief Executive Lorenzo Simonelli.

On top of that the way the market held up as we started heading into the end of shoulder season should suggest that we should see some strong markets over the next few weeks. Just remember as we head into the Easter holiday we traditionally get a rally and the market looks primed. If the shorts decide to throw in the towel, we could see a pretty big spike and maybe back to the mid-70s.

Traders will also get a look at the Energy Information Administration “Short Term Energy Outlook” today. It’s going to be interesting to see if they call for more investment in fossil fuels. It’ll also be interesting to see if they have any take on the potential tariffs that could ensue the surrounding energy.

Fears of a government shutdown have also eased. Reuters reported, the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives set up a Tuesday vote on legislation that would keep the government funded and avert a partial shutdown, as Washington is rocked by President Donald Trump’s rapid moves to slash federal agencies. The House Rules Committee advanced the bill on Monday evening to the full chamber, clearing the way for what will likely be a close vote on Tuesday to extend government funding past midnight Friday, when it is due to expire.

Natural gas has calmed down but to make no mistake about it the charts are still pointing out higher natural gas prices. This shift from the perpetual bear market seems to have turned as the outlook for demand for natural gas looks so much stronger down the curve. Increased liquefied natural gas exports as well as increased domestic demand should mean for producers that their long, bearish nightmare is over.

Obviously, weather is going to be key for natural gas as we get into summer predictions of the hot summer after a cold winter is keeping the bears at Bay. In fact Fox Weather is keeping a close eye on these developments. The FOX Forecast Center is continuing to monitor the potential for a multiday severe weather outbreak that could blast cities across the central and eastern U.S. with thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and even some tornadoes. Forecasters have been keeping their eyes on computer forecast models and now say the threat of severe weather will continue through the weekend, placing tens of millions of people living along the East Coast on alert for powerful thunderstorms by Sunday. The FOX Forecast Center said it is most concerned about what could potentially take place starting Friday, but severe weather is also possible on Wednesday and Thursday.

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Natural Gas Breaks Out, but Bearish Reversal Threatens Rally
By: Bruce Powers | March 10, 2025

• Natural gas spiked to $4.90 but reversed sharply, threatening a failed breakout as price action weakens and a bearish candlestick pattern signals potential downside risk.

Natural gas spiked a new trend high of $4.90 on Monday before encountering resistance that led to a sharp intraday sell-off. The advance led to a bullish breakout above the top trendline of a rising parallel channel set after the August 2024 low. However, subsequent intraday weakness warns of a possible failed breakout.

At the time of this writing, natural gas is trading back below the top trendline and in the lower quarter of the day’s trading range, which was $4.45 to $4.90. If it ends the day in a similar position, a bearish shooting star candlestick will be formed.



Bearish Candlestick Pattern Triggers Below $4.45

Although the candlestick pattern shows sellers in charge near the end of the trading session, the pattern doesn’t trigger until there is a drop below today’s low. Nonetheless, today’s price action is short-term bearish since it follows the breakout of a long-term pattern. Rather than seeing interest increase following the breakout, the candle pattern shows demand dissipating. In other words, the bullish signal was not confirmed, and it is therefore the breakout is subject to failure.

Initial Strength Turns Bearish

The breakout showed strength initially as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4.77 of the full downtrend that began from the 2022 peak was exceeded without hesitation. Subsequently, resistance was seen just below the next higher potential resistance zone defined by a November 2018 peak at $4.93 and a 78.6% target from a rising ABCD pattern (purple) at $4.97.

The ABCD pattern looks for price symmetry or a harmonic relationship between the second leg up (CD) and the first upswing (AB). Typically, a 100% relationship identifies a potentially key pivot level. That is where the price gains between the two swings are similar. Also, Fibonacci relationships are used to provide other potential pivots. The 78.6% level deserves attention today given the bearish reaction following the day’s high.

Key Support at 20-Day MA

It looks like the spike high occurred due to an order imbalance shortly after the opening of Monday’s session, as it largely occurred within one-minute. A bearish pullback began immediately after the high was reached. This might mean that the failed breakout has less of a lagging effect than it might otherwise if demand was stronger initially. Nonetheless, key support remains the 20-Day MA, which is now at $4.04.

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Oil Market Update - multi-year standoff looking set to end soon in a dramatic manner...
By: Clive Maund | March 10, 2025

This is the first Oil Market update for a very long time, a big reason for which is that, apart from a significant runup in 2022 that was followed by a drop of equal magnitude, oil has done little and is virtually unchanged from its price early in 2021. The reason for this update now is that it looks like the long stalemate is going to end soon with a big move that, barring a major war in the Mid-East, is expected to be to the downside.
As many of you are surely aware the world is tipping into the most serious economic depression in history which is caused by the exponentially expanding debt that has now arrived at the point of total saturation and all the continued issuance of debt will do is guarantee a hyperinflationary depression. While Trump is trying to rein it in, even with the best will in the world you can’t fix a problem that was decades in the making in the space of a month or 6 months or even several years. A hyperinflationary depression, or an economic implosion if debt issuance is choked off, means that the economy is contracting and people are getting poorer, which in turn means that there will be less demand for oil – much less. So, unless the powers that be decide they are going to attack Iran to please Israel and see what happens, the oil price looks set to break lower and crater and the charts show that this could happen soon. This was all predicted many years ago by Elliott Wave theorist Robert Prechter in his youth as the end of an epochal “Grand Supercycle”.

The Fed of course has done a stirling job of propping up the stock market up to now despite the rotten economy by creating money out of thin air in gargantuan quantities to throw at propping up the debt market but it’s gotten so extreme that they are “pushing on a piece of string” and as we have seen, the stock market has started to roll over and taking on a more definitely bearish appearance. Their largesse has not, however, extended to propping up the international oil market and oil has been in retreat since mid-January to the point that it is threatening to crash a key support level as we will now proceed to see on the charts.

Whilst we cannot understand what is going on looking solely at a 6-month chart, it’s a good point to start as it does show recent action in detail and how the price has been dropping quite steeply since the middle of January to arrive in a zone of important support towards and at the 6-month lows. It is short-term oversold at this support and so could bounce near-term although the decidedly bearish alignment of its moving averages suggests a high probability that it will then turn lower again – if it bounces at all.



Zooming out via the 4-year log chart gives us a much broader perspective. On this chart we see that, apart from a sharp runup to the $128 area early in 2022, which gains were all lost by the end of that year, oil has been range bound for 4 years now from early 2021. So what is this pattern that has formed from early 2021? – to figure that out we will now proceed to look at the 5-year chart that shows us what preceded this pattern.



On the 5-year chart we see that the pattern that has formed in recent years was preceded by a strong uptrend from the ridiculously low level in the Spring of 2020 associated with the Covid psyop and orchestrated mass psychosis involving lockdowns and masks when many deluded people were led to believe that the world was going to come to an end and for some of them who were taken in by it, it has of course. On this chart the pattern that has been forming since early 2021 looks like a giant irregular Head-and-Shoulders top with its protracted Right Shoulder being a bearish Falling Triangle.



Switching to a 5-year log chart throws the potential top pattern of recent years into sharper relief. This chart shows that the oil price has basically gone nowhere for 4 years and also makes even more clear the importance of the support level towards and at the $60 level – if this support level is breached it will be a huge psychological blow that can be expected to lead to a severe downtrend and oil could crater, especially in percentage terms.



On the very long-term chart going back to the start of the millenium, i.e. to the start of the year 2000, we can see that, should oil breach nearby support and drop, its first stop on the way down will be the support level in the $30 - $40 zone which would likely arrest the decline, although after consolidating in this area it could break to still lower levels.



Is there anything that could stop oil breaking down and instead get it moving higher? - well, there is one thing and that would be a major war in the Mid-East involving Iran. Whilst there are powerful vested interests wanting to keep the oil price elevated, it seems a bit outlandish for them to go as far as orchestrating a war with Iran partly for this purpose, although it is perhaps not as far-fetched as many might think. After all, we have many corrupt politicians in Europe wanting to put the continent on a war footing in part for the massive kickbacks that they would surely receive from the defense industry, although these could turn out to be small comfort if Europe ends up being nuked. Barring this scenario, however, oil looks like it is shaping up to drop and drop hard and perhaps soon.

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Credit Where Credit Is Due. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 10, 2025

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said no one gave him credit or the administration credit for falling oil prices or lower interest rates. What that means is that Scott Bessent has not been reading my daily Energy Report. The Phil Flynn Energy Report has indeed pointed out that the Trump Policies will lead to lower prices even as we see challenges in natural gas. Many remain in denial, ignoring that smart energy policies can benefit both the economy and American consumers and energy companies. For years there has been debate about whether presidential policies impact energy prices. The answer is clear, it is yes. Maybe not for every penny up or down in gasoline or crude but policies matter from a production standpoint, from a regulatory standpoint and from an economic growth standpoint.

Biden’s regulatory policies, including the cancellation of the Keystone Pipeline and numerous executive orders aimed at curtailing U.S. oil and gas production, influenced investment in the industry. Additionally, Biden’s use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve had effects on U.S. energy producers and future investments needed to meet demand. The administration’s policies show that presidential actions can affect energy prices.

Now under the Trump Administration, we are seeing signs that his policies are reducing oil prices and interest rates for consumers. Despite expectations that tariff threats would lead to a surge in oil prices, they have remained subdued. Trump reduction of geopolitical risk by trying to create peace in Ukraine as well as Iran.

President Trump told Maria Bartiromo on Sunday Morning Futures that he sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last week asking that the two leaders “negotiate” over the Islamic republic’s nuclear program. On Saturday, the Iranian leader mentioned the effort by an unnamed “bullying governments” to make a deal over the program. Trump told Maria that, “There are two ways Iran can be handled, militarily or you make a deal,” Trump said. “I would prefer to make a deal, because I’m not looking to hurt Iran. They’re great people. I know so many Iranians from this country.”

Concurrently, natural gas prices are rising as Canada threatens to cut off supply and construct a new pipeline. This could result in a natural gas surplus due to the potential loss of their primary customer.

Regulatory changes are expected to lower long-term energy prices, saving consumers billions. Industry professionals are optimistic as the reduced regulatory burden allows them to operate safely and more effectively. They support fair and effective regulations that enables the industry to contribute to the economy.

But natural gas prices were the story last night as they gapped open higher hitting the limit up circuit breaker before cooling off. In fact natural gas prices actually hit the highest level since December 2022 in part because inventories have fallen well below average at a time where the projections of this summer’s temperatures are going to be much warmer than normal and at a time where Canada is continuing to make threats to cut off supplies.

Natural gas prices increased yesterday when former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien endorsed a natural gas pipeline from Alberta to Quebec. He stated that, “If necessary, the governments can consider going further,” by affecting the American economy “by imposing an export tax on oil, gas, potash, aluminum, and electricity.” Canada could then use the funds from the export tax to build infrastructure needed in Canada, for instance, to construct a natural gas pipeline from Alberta to Quebec. This move may require Canada to find new customers for its natural gas products. Chrétien referred to the U.S. as the most powerful country in the world built upon a rules-based order that has brought peace and prosperity.

Chrétien’s threat was inspiring. Some were disappointed there was no mention of extending the pipeline through Quebec. They need to lift another tariff between provinces. He even mentioned that Ben Franklin went to Montreal to try to get Canada to join the American Revolution. And while he seemed proud about that, in retrospect it was probably a bad move for Canada.

Additionally, Ontario’s threatened 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S. could increase prices for 1.5 million homes in Minnesota, Michigan, and New York. Trump may be able to offset that somewhat. In the short term US buyers will try to find cheaper sources but we are going to have some issues with supply constraints and grids and such but this type of price spike from Canada could do long term damage because the US will find other ways to provide that energy to these areas. So Canada has to be very careful and they’re going to lose their best customer and if they lose their best customer they’re going to have to build more than one pipeline if they want to sell their gas.

A recent cold snap resulted in the fourth-largest withdrawal from U.S. natural gas storage, with January withdrawals nearly reaching 1 trillion cubic feet. Inventories are 4% below the previous five-year average after being 6% above at the start of the heating season.

The U.S. is considering a plan to disrupt Iran’s oil transportation by halting vessels at sea.

The Premier of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, threatened to cut off energy supplies to the U.S. if President-elect Donald Trump implements proposed tariffs on Canadian goods. This highlights potential trade conflicts between the two nations. “We will go to the full extent depending on how far this goes. We will consider cutting off their energy supplies to Michigan, New York State, and Wisconsin,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said following a virtual meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other provincial premiers to discuss Trump’s tariff threat. “I don’t want this to happen, but my priority is to protect Ontario, Ontarians, and Canadians as a whole since we are the largest province.”

In November, Trump threatened to impose a blanket 25% tariff on all products from Canada and Mexico unless the countries address the flow of drugs and unauthorized migrants to the U.S..

Bloomberg reported that Ukraine claimed a strike on an oil refinery owned by Rosneft PJSC in Russia’s Samara region, continuing attacks on a key industry on almost on a daily basis. Drones hit the Novokuibyshevsk refinery overnight, a Ukrainian security official said, asking not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter. The facility is of “a strategic importance” for the Russian army as it ensures “a stable supply of fuel for military operations,” Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Propaganda, said in a post on Telegram. Rosneft didn’t immediately respond to a request for a comment and it wasn’t possible to independently verify Ukraine’s claims. Samara regional governor Vyacheslav Fedorischev said in a post on social network VK that three Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight in the town of Novokuibyshevsk, with no fire or damage registered.

Oil prices are still locked in the range but building the base for a catapult higher when the seasonality’s kick in later in the month. Natural gas is in an explosive upward move but maybe a bit ahead of itself. As we have talked about for some time, natural gas prices are being influenced not only by the fact that we use more natural gas this year than we have in the years past but also by the fact that we have seen projections for a much warmer summer than normal. that means it will be more difficult to get supplies built up ahead of next winter.

Fox Weather reports that millions in the Midwest and Southeast may face another severe weather outbreak this week. March typically marks the beginning of the active spring severe weather season, and this renewed risk comes after a deadly severe weather outbreak swept across the nation last week. This week, forecasters will monitor the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms as we approach the middle of the week and again as we get ready to welcome the weekend.

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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 8, 2025

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 4, 2025.

WTI crude oil: Currently net long 153.7k, up 12.5k.



Last September, West Texas Intermediate crude ticked $65.27 and bottomed; it had come under pressure after tagging $84.52 in July. Horizontal support at $65-$66 goes back years. After defense of this support in September, the crude then rallied to $78.46 in October and $79.39 in January. Since that weekly shooting star high, it has dropped for seven weeks in a row.

This week, the crude gave back 3.9 percent to $67.04/barrel, with Wednesday’s intraday low of $65.22. Once again, oil bulls stepped up in defense of $65-$66. A rally is likely. Immediately ahead, there is horizontal resistance at $68. This will be followed by $71-$72, which makes up the lower bound of a months-long range with the upper bound at $81-$82. This range was broken last September.

In the meantime, US crude production in the week to February 28 increased 6,000 barrels per day w/w to 13.508 million b/d; output has come under slight pressure since registering a record 13.631 mb/d in the week to December 6. Crude imports dropped 106,000 b/d to 5.8 mb/d. As did gasoline and distillate inventory which decreased 1.4 million barrels and 1.3 million barrels respectively to 246.8 million barrels and 119.2 million barrels. Crude stocks, however, increased 3.6 million barrels to 433.8 million barrels. Refinery utilization fell six-tenths of a percentage point to 85.9 percent.

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NY Crude Oil Futures (CL) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 8, 2025

Natural Gas Faces Bearish Pressure After Resistance Test
By: Bruce Powers | March 7, 2025

• Natural gas pulled back after testing resistance, with support at $3.97 in focus. However, a move above $4.43 could signal renewed bullish momentum.

Natural gas fell to a three-day low of $4.13 on Friday, indicating that it might pull back further to test lower support levels. A breakdown of an inside day was triggered today with a drop below $4.25, while further weakness was shown by a decline below Wednesday’s low of $4.23. This is a bearish price action reflecting short-term downward pressure. It follows a new trend high of $4.55 that was reached on Tuesday thereby testing resistance around a top rising trend channel line. Resistance was seen around that line several times before.



Dynamics of Pullback May Provide Clues

Until today, a bullish continuation was possible as resistance around the top channel line continued to be tested over the past couple of days and resistance was retained. The subsequent bearish decline today, however, makes a deeper pullback more likely prior to a new breakout attempt. But that will also depend on what happens next.

Key Trend Support at 20-Day MA

The obvious potential trend support area is represented by the 20-Day MA, now at $3.97. Notice that it aligns with an internal uptrend line. Together, they represent a more significant possible dynamic support area. A pullback prior to another bullish breakout attempt would be normal and healthy for the developing bull trend.

Recent bullish indications that support an eventual move higher, include a sharp bounce off support on Monday defined by the convergence of the 50% retracement, the 20-Day MA, and the 50-Day MA. Moreover, the 20-Day line crossed above the 50-Day line, and natural gas reached a new trend high. This behavior shows strong underlying demand. However, if there is a decline below the 20-Day MA and natural gas stays below it or keeps falling, the near-term outlook and a chance for a new trend high begins to fade.

Weekly Bullish Engulfing Pattern Supports Further Upside

This week will end with a bullish engulfing pattern that is also a key reversal week. Where the price of natural gas ends the week may provide additional insight. A weekly closing price above last week’s high of $4.19 would confirm the weekly breakout, but a close above the three-week high and prior trend high at $4.48, would show greater strength. Despite the potential for a deeper bearish decline, that would begin to change on a sharp rise above today’s high at $4.43. This could be of particular interest if the day ends with a bullish hammer candlestick pattern.

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$OIL $XLE $BPENER - Unwinding...
By: Sahara | March 7, 2025

• $OIL $XLE $BPENER - Unwinding

There have been Buy & Sell Signals along the way, yet while under the Kosh I find it better to stand aside until I see a reason to enter...



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$XLE #Energy - Recall I showed a Bear 'Wedge' which had formed last year...
By: Sahara | March 7, 2025

• $XLE #Energy - Recall I showed a Bear 'Wedge' which had formed last year.

Been in-play for a few months with a pot'l B/Test, now testing its Mthly 20/MA again. Which ideally needs to hold, otherwise it will aim for its Targets...



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$WTIC $Oil -Striving to hold the Red Ledge. Failure will focus on the Lwr Arrowed Targets into the $50's...
By: Sahara | March 7, 2025

• $WTIC $Oil -Striving to hold the Red Ledge.

Failure will focus on the Lwr Arrowed Targets into the $50's...



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Crude Oil Tests Support After 19% Decline, Reversal Possible
By: Bruce Powers | March 6, 2025

• Oil prices remain under pressure but may see a bounce after finding support near prior lows, while a weekly closing below $66.37 could confirm long-term weakness.

Crude oil consolidated on Thursday following a new retracement low of $65.40 that was reached on Wednesday. It is on track to end today with an inside day. Wednesday’s low completed a $15.36 or 19% decline from the January swing high of $80.76. This makes the current bearish correction the largest of the four prior corrections on a percentage basis.

The four most recent bearish corrections ranged from a decline of 14.8% to 18.3%. On that basis alone crude oil should be close to a potential bottom that could lead to at least a bounce. In addition, support for the decline was seen by a prior trend low support level reached in September at $65.65. Also, notice that the low of this week found support near the lower trendline of a declining channel.



On Track for Lowest Weekly Close in Almost Two Years

Of concern is the weekly closing price for this week. A weekly closing price below $67.22 would be the lowest weekly closing price since March 2023, while a close below $66.37 would be the lowest weekly closing price since August 2021. This would be a bearish sign on a larger time frame and would further confirm recent bearish indications.

At Risk of Bearish Continuation of Long-term Downtrend

Moreover, recent bearish price action along with a test of prior long-term support suggests the possibility of an eventual breakdown to new lows. Given a successful test of support at prior long-term lows and the bottom channel line for the current downswing, it seems likely that a bounce to test resistance within the current decline may come first. That could eventually lead to a larger bullish reversal. But until that time the downtrend can be expected to retain its boundaries and could lead to a bearish continuation.

Bounce Possible Above $67.25

Since today is an inside day, an initial bullish reversal signal will be generated on a rally above the high for the day at $67.25. Previous support around $68.10 becomes the first upside target. That target area is marked by an uptrend line, a prior interim swing low from December, and a prior minor trend low from last week. Higher up is potential resistance around the 20-Day MA trend indicator. It is currently at $70.60 and falling.

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Natural Gas Consolidates Near Highs, Poised for Breakout Move
By: Bruce Powers | March 6, 2025

• Natural gas holds near trend highs, testing key resistance while consolidation tightens. A breakout move is likely, but direction remains uncertain amid technical signals.

Natural gas continued to consolidate near recent highs on Thursday, and it is set to close lower for the day and as an inside day. At the time of this writing, the high for the day was $4.47 and the low $4.25. Today would be the second consecutive inside day and it reflects a tightening of consolidation. Therefore, there is the potential for a sharp move in the direction of the breakout of the inside days.

Since Thursday will likely end as an inside day, Wednesday’s high of $4.52 and the low of $4.23 provide the outside price range for the past two days. It should provide more reliable price levels for signals versus Thursday’s price range.



New Trend High Stalled Advance

A new trend high of $4.55 was reached on Tuesday and the day ended with natural gas in a relatively weak position in the lower half of the day’s trading range. Moreover, the closing price was the second highest level for the bull trend, but it was not the highest.

That is not a convincing response to a new bull breakout as it shows short-term weakness, rather than improving strength. Then, on Wednesday a new closing daily high was established at $4.52. And Wednesday’s high of $4.52 completed another test of resistance around a top trend channel line that marked a resistance zone for the three most recent rallies.

Top Channel Line Remains Resistance

Previous attempts to break out above the channel line have failed. This would seem to put greater weight on the possibility of a bearish retracement rather than a bullish continuation. Nonetheless, the behavior of natural gas around key near-term price levels mentioned above will provide clues.

Although demand remains relatively strong given the two days of consolidation that further tested resistance around the channel line, a sustained upside breakout and a continuation of the bull trend may have greater success following a pullback first, or a longer rest in consolidation.

Bullish Weekly Price Action

On the weekly time frame natural gas showed strength this week. This week’s rally began following an initial bearish move to test support at a confluence zone that is marked by several indicators. Of significance is the 50-Day MA, now at $3.77. That line was joined by the 20-Day MA and a 50% retracement level. It was the first real test of support at the 50-Day line since it was reclaimed on February 13.

Having both the 20-Day and 50-Day lines converged around the support zone likely contributed to the sharp rally once it was tested as support. Subsequently, a weekly bull breakout triggered on a rise above last week’s high of $4.19. This seems to be supportive of a bullish continuation of the rising trend above $4.55. If so, the $4.70 area is the next upside target.

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Trump and Dump. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 6, 2025

Trumping Oil. Oil got Trumped and dumped. While many people feared that President Trump aggressive trade negotiations would raise the price of oil, so far oil has been Trumped and dumped. Oil prices have defied some analysts fears that Trump would increase prices with his trade threats but so far the opposite seems to be happening. President Trump, with a mix of peace negotiations coupled with relaxing regulations on the oil and gas industry, has caused the price of oil drop even as our trade partners have to raise their tariffs on oil and gas and even cut off their exports.
Now today breaking news may bring oil a bid after a Reuters exclusive reported that the US is mulling a plan to disrupt Iran’s oil by halting vessels at sea. In recent weeks Iran’s oil exports have surged and President Trump, unlike the previous Administration, is looking at ways to clamp down on Iran oil trade. The latest in that effort as reported by Reuters includes considering this more aggressive action. Supply from Iran to China rebounded to 1.4 million bpd in the period February 1-20, after falling close to a two-year low below 800,000 bpd in January, Vortexa data showed. Shandong-bound Iranian volumes surpassed 1.1 million bpd and exceeded the 2024 average, the data showed. Kpler data showed Iranian crude arrivals in China rose to 771,000 bpd in February, up from 692,000 bpd in January.

Reuters reported that, “President Donald Trump’s administration is considering a plan to stop and inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea under an international accord aimed at countering the spread of weapons of mass destruction, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Trump has vowed to restore a “maximum pressure” campaign to isolate Iran from the global economy and drive its oil exports to zero, in order to stop the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Trump hit Iran with two waves of fresh sanctions in the first weeks of his second-term, targeting companies and the so-called shadow fleet of ageing oil tankers that sail without Western insurance and transport crude from sanctioned countries. Those moves have largely been in line with the limited measures implemented during Joe Biden’s administration, when Iran succeeded in ramping up oil exports through complex smuggling networks. Trump officials are now looking at ways for allied countries to stop and inspect ships sailing through critical chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait in Asia and other sea lanes, according to six sources who asked not to be named due to the sensitive subject.

President Trump also met with Canadian Prime Minter Trudeau and announced that he would temporarily spare carmakers from a new 25% import tax imposed on Canada and Mexico, just a day after the tariffs came into effect. On Truth Social President Trump said, “For anyone who is interested, I also told Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada that he largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies, which allowed tremendous amounts of Fentanyl, and Illegal Aliens, to pour into the United States. These Policies are responsible for the death of many people!”

Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith, said she is halting Alberta’s purchase of U.S. goods, alcohol and gambling machines. That may be a blow to Canadians that want to bet on the hockey playoffs or want a Jack and coke. Yet Trump’s tariffs are leading to more fair trade and has made the Alberta premier see the light. Apparently Alberta is very upset that the United States is putting tariffs on her province, she has come to the realization that Alberta basically puts tariffs on her countrymen and other provinces. She is now lifted her tariffs on British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and even New Brunswick. So, it seems that Trumps policies have expanded free trade in Canada! Free Canada!

This comes as President Trump is sending a message to the Hamas terror group to release the hostages or else. While many other countries seem to be falling all over themselves to support Ukraine, they seem oblivious to supporting Israel that saw a heinous and horrendous attack from Hamas on innocent civilians including the torture of woman and children. President Trump, whom Benjamin Netanyahu called the best friend Israel ever had, has had enough.

On Truth Social President Trump said, ““Shalom Hamas” means Hello and Goodbye – You can choose. Release all of the Hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you. Only sick and twisted people keep bodies, and you are sick and twisted! I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say. I have just met with your former Hostages whose lives you have destroyed. This is your last warning! For the leadership, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance. Also, to the People of Gaza: A beautiful Future awaits, but not if you hold Hostages. If you do, you are DEAD! Make a SMART decision. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW, OR THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY LATER! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA”

Oil inventories were taken as a bit bearish but the drop in runs is seasonal. Demand was impressive. The drop in price should give us a good place to put on the seasonal trades for the Easter run-up.

Reuters reported that, “Mexican state company Pemex is in talks with potential buyers in Asia, including China, and Europe, as it seeks alternative markets for its crude after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imports, a senior Mexican government official said. Trump this week implemented 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. While Canadian crude won an exception of a 10% levy, Mexican crude is to be taxed at 25%.

Natural gas exploded on cold weather and natural gas threat from Canada. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith: “Alberta happens to have one of the largest deposits of oil and natural gas on the planet. It is significantly larger and far more accessible than the quickly declining oil and gas reserves located in the United States.” “Whether the US President wishes to admit it or not, the United States not only needs our oil and gas today, they are also going to need it more and more with each passing year once they notice their declining domestic reserves and production are wholly insufficient.”

Maybe today! But not tomorrow. John Kemp Energy reported that, “in contrast to oil, U.S. gas production is likely to increase significantly in 2025, after prices more than doubled in real terms from the multi-decade low in the first quarter of 2024. Dry gas production declined slightly to an average of 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in 2024 from 103.6 bcf/d in 2023. Front-month futures prices slumped to an average of less than $1.80 per million British thermal units in March 2024, the lowest since futures trading began in 1990, after adjusting for inflation.

Since then, however, prices have more than doubled to an average of $3.74 in February 2025, putting them in the 29th percentile for all months since 1990 in real terms. Falling production, combined with record consumption from gas-fired generators, growth in exports, and the coldest winter for six years, has tightened supplies sharply. Surplus inventories in March 2024 inherited from the very mild winter of 2023/24 had been transformed into a large and widening deficit by February 2025.

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EIA Natural Gas Storage Draw Of -80 Bcf Misses Estimates
By: Vladimir Zernov | March 6, 2025

Key Points:

• Working gas in storage decreased by -80 Bcf from the previous week.
• At current levels, stocks are -224 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of the year.
• Natural gas tests support at $4.25 - $4.30.

On March 6, 2025, EIA released its Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. The report indicated that working gas in storage declined by -80 Bcf from the previous week, compared to analyst forecast of -96 Bcf. In the previous week, working gas in storage decreased by -261 Bcf.


More information in our economic calendar

At current levels, stocks are -585 Bcf less than last year and -224 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of the year.

Natural gas prices moved lower after the release of the report. Storage draw missed analyst expectations, which may serve as a bearish catalyst for natural gas markets.

Traders will also continue to monitor the tariff drama. Falling exports from Canada provided material support to natural gas markets in recent trading sessions. In case the U.S. and Canada manage to come up with a deal which reduces or eliminates tariffs, natural gas markets may find themselves under more pressure.

From the technical point of view, natural gas is trying to settle below the support at $4.25 – $4.30. In case this attempt is successful, natural gas will head towards the next support level, which is located in the $4.00 – $4.05 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.

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Natural Gas Poised for New Highs or Pullback from Resistance
By: Bruce Powers | March 5, 2025

• Natural gas consolidates near key resistance, with potential for a breakout above $4.55 or a pullback toward support at $4.06 and $3.88.

Natural gas is on track to complete an inside day on Wednesday, following another test of resistance around a top trend channel line earlier in the trading session. The high for the day was $4.52 and the low was $4.23. A breakout through either price level may lead to a continuation in the direction of the breakout.

If an upside breakout triggers, then the trend high from Tuesday at $4.55 may be challenged and a bull trend continuation signal would trigger on a move above that high. In addition to the bullish pattern of a rising trend, natural gas is on track to end the day at its highest daily closing price for the current advance, and the highest price since mid-December 2022.



Above $4.55 Triggers Trend Breakout

If the $4.55 price level is exceeded, then natural gas could reach the next higher target zone around $4.70 to $4.72. Subsequently, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the full decline that began from the 2022 peak of $10.03 is at $4.77. Since that measurement is based on a long-term pattern, it is potentially significant with a good chance that strong resistance might be seen there.

Rising ABCD Pattern Formed

The advance from the late-January swing low of $2.99 is in its second leg up following a clear test of support on Monday at the day’s low of $3.74. That low generated a higher swing low. There is the confluence of several indicators identifying the $3.74 price zone as potentially significant support. Given the sharp advance since that swing low. Including a breakout to a new trend high yesterday, natural gas seems to be indicating it may go higher and possibly break out to a new trend high.

When adding a rising ABCD pattern (purple) to the current advance, it shows a potential initial target at the 78.6% extension of $4.93. Whether it is reached or not, the ABCD pattern shows the potential for higher prices. Possible targets from the ABCD pattern are identified when there is price symmetry between the CD leg of the pattern and the AB leg, or a harmonic relationship between the two swings. The targets identify potential resistance levels.

Drop Below $4.23 May Lead Lower

Alternatively, a decline below today’s low of $4.23 will show short-term weakness that could lead to a lower pullback to test support levels. Tuesday’s low at $4.06 could see support and if it fails, a test of the 20-Day MA at $3.88 currently, becomes possible.

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Crude Oil drops to its lowest price since September and one of the lowest levels since the end of 2021
By: Barchart | March 5, 2025

• Crude Oil drops to its lowest price since September and one of the lowest levels since the end of 2021.



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Crude Oil Continues to Plunge
By: Christopher Lewis | March 5, 2025

• The crude oil market continues to look very soft, as we are now looking to break below the overall three year range.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market fell pretty significantly during the trading session on Wednesday to threaten the major support level that I think a lot of us will continue to watch in general. With that being the case, I think you have to accept the fact that perhaps the crude oil market just can’t be traded right now.

There is an argument to be made for this and I do think that traders will probably continue to assume that the recession, of course is going to be a major problem, but sooner or later one would expect there’s a bounce. So, I am definitely watching this market but in the last couple of days I’ve even suggested that we might have a bit of a bounce, but we just don’t have the momentum.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The Brent markets look very much the same as we are breaking through the $70 level, the $70 level, of course, is an area that we need to pay close attention to. And therefore, we are plunging in this area. I think you have a situation where a little bit of a bounce could come, but again, we didn’t get the follow through to break above the top of the hammer.

So again, you just want to stand on the sidelines and let this thing fall until it stops falling. Demand will pick up later this year. So, I do think that we are getting closer to the end than not, but I don’t need to be the first trader to jump in and start buying hand over fist in a market that’s been plunging for some time.

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Commodities Daily Market Movers (% Price Change)
By: Marty Armstrong | March 5, 2025

• Top Movers

NSW Baseload Electricity Continuous 4.41 %
AU - Queensland Base-Load Electricity Futures 1.48 %
LBMA Silver in USD 1.21 %
Tokyo Platinum Futures 0.53 %
Tokyo Gold Futures 0.11 %

• Bottom Movers

Tokyo Rubber Futures 0.22 %

*Close from the last completed Daily

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Oil Price Diplomacy. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 5, 2025

Oil prices are under pressure as a diplomatic push by President Donald Trump could remove sanctions on Russian and create an off ramp for Iranian sanction’s brokered by none other than Russian President Vladimir Putin and enhance global supplies.

Reuters reported earlier this week that the White House has asked the State and Treasury departments to draft a list of sanctions that could be used by U.S. officials to discuss with Russian representatives in the coming days as part of the administration’s broad talks with Moscow on improving diplomatic and economic relations, the sources said. So, it’s not just drill baby drill to bring down prices but also diplomacy that is keeping the crude oil price in check.

The US just cut off intelligence sharing with Ukraine in a move that shows the White House’s disgust with Ukraine President Zelensky. This comes after Newsweek reported that, “The White House is pushing back after a Reuters report on Tuesday that President Donald Trump’s administration and Ukraine intend to sign the highly scrutinized minerals deal. Fox News’ Jacqui Heinrich, the network’s senior White House correspondent, reported on X, formerly Twitter, that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News, “There is no signing planned.” Also on Tuesday, multiple sources told CBS News that a deal is not finalized. The network also reported that Trump is now holding out for a “bigger, better deal.” Reuters reported that it spoke to four sources familiar with the matter.

While the market looks weak on the downside, many people are talking about the fact that OPEC’s production increases may signal that the market is very tight if you get back to supply and demand. The oil market is still has an inventory below average and this could be the final washout before the seasonal rally begins. This time, as global petroleum demand hit a record high, ERG Energy, a Houston-based power generation giant, plans to build four new natural gas power plants to supply data centers in Texas and elsewhere, according to a Wednesday announcement.

This comes as Maureen Malik at Bloomberg wrote that the demand for the Texas power grid is expected to expand so immensely that it would take the equivalent of adding 30 nuclear plants’ worth of electricity by 2030 to meet the needs. That’s according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages the grid. The forecast is based on the addition of new data centers needed to power artificial

intelligence. And it’s raising concerns about whether infrastructure in the state will be able to expand fast enough — and at what cost.

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Crude Oil Rebounds from $66.96 – Is the Correction Over?
By: Bruce Powers | March 4, 2025

• After testing support near $66.96, crude oil surged intraday. A decisive breakout above $71.11 could signal a reversal and challenge higher resistance.

Crude oil extended its bearish correction on Tuesday to a new trend low of $66.96. Subsequently, buyers took control and drove the price up to new highs for the day. At the time of this writing, crude oil hit a high of $68.66 for the day as it tested resistance around a trendline that marked the bottom of a prior consolidation phase.

Notice that the market recognized the line on the way down as support was seen at the line last Wednesday and it was followed by a bounce. Crude oil continues to trade near the high prices of the day and may complete a bullish dragonfly doji or hammer candlestick pattern if it remains in a similar position at the close of the session.



Breakout Above Tuesday’s High

A decisive breakout above today’s high would trigger a one-day bullish reversal breakout and put crude in a position to challenge higher trend resistance areas. The potentially more significant resistance zone is first around the 20-Day MA, now at $71.11.

For crude to have a shot of going higher and potentially reversing the bearish trend it needs to first get above and stay above the 20-Day line. That moving average can be viewed along with the downtrend line marking dynamic resistance for the decline. A decisive breakout above the line would put crude in a position to challenge potential resistance around the 50-Day MA, which is $73.23 currently.

Bounce off Monthly Support

It is important to consider several key factors when addressing support at the daily low point. Support was seen near an interim swing low of $66.86 from mid-November, and near the lower channel line for the current decline. That November support level was also a monthly low. Although the lower line was not hit specifically, the correction got close enough given the subsequent bullish reaction.

Moreover, a measured move for the correction shows a $13.79 or 17.1% decline from the most recent swing high at $80.76. The four prior bearish corrections in crude oil ranged from a decline of 14.8% to 18.3%. Since the current decline was close to matching the largest recent drop on a percentage basis, it provides another piece of evidence to support the likely completion of the correction. The fact that a sharp intraday bullish reversal followed further supports this thesis.

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Natural Gas Tests Key Resistance After Rally to $4.55
By: Bruce Powers | March 4, 2025

• Natural gas surged to a trend high, triggering a bull signal. If momentum holds, prices may break higher, but resistance near $4.77 could limit gains.

Natural gas rallied to a new trend high of $4.55 on Tuesday, before hitting resistance that led to an intraday pullback. Resistance was seen around the 50% retracement of a long-term internal downtrend and around a top trendline or a rising channel. Notice that each of the prior two advances met resistance around that top line of the channel as well. This may indicate a couple of things. Either the price zone marked by the two indicators continues to show signs of resistance, or the bulls bust through it and natural gas heads towards the next higher potential resistance zone.



Upside Channel Breakout Possible

An upside breakout would signal a breakout of the rising parallel channel that shows some degree of symmetry within the price structure of the uptrend. Caution is warranted as there is a strong risk of a false breakout. Nonetheless, the next higher target zone is from around $4.70 to $4.72, derived from two extended Fibonacci levels. A little higher is a potential significant target zone as it would complete a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the full decline that began following the $10.03 peak in 2022. The 38.2% level is at $4.77.

Bullish Monthly Signal

Today’s rally triggered a bull trend continuation signal on the monthly chart (not shown) as last month’s high of $4.78 was exceeded. A daily close above that high will provide some confirmation of strength indicated by the upside breakout. Moreover, notice the pullback to a new retracement low of $3.74 on Monday that occurred before buyers stepped in and took back control.

A decisive bull breakout of a small wedge followed, and the day ended in a strong position near the highs of the day. Can demand remain strong enough for a breakout through the top of the channel? Possibly. But it may then quickly run out of bullish momentum. However, it will depend on whether it occurs before a minor pullback or not.

Slingshot Setup

The initial decline yesterday that occurred before a sharp rally was a clue that bullish momentum could accelerate. There was a confluence of several indicators around that price area, including the 50-Day MA, 20-Day MA, and 50% retracement. When multiple indicators point to a similar price it tends to be significant.

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$NATGAS #Energy - What a Ride Inchin into my 4.67 Target...
By: Sahara | March 4, 2025

• $NATGAS #Energy - What a Ride

Inchin into my 4.67 Target...



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It’s A Myth. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 4, 2025

As I have said before, it’s a myth that tariffs are inflationary. President Donald Trump took that a step further by declaring that, “It’s a myth” that tariffs are largely paid for by consumers through higher prices. That point seems to be true especially when you are gaging the reaction to the tariff news with today’s commodity prices and the reaction to so many historic events. Not only tariffs but some out of the box thinking of foreign policy that could lift sanctions on Russia and potentially Iran at the same time with a new Trump driven nuclear deal.

While the announced sanctions on Mexico Canada and China have caused some prices to rise, they have caused other prices to fall. Which means the impact on overall inflation should be minimal. Yes, some goods may be more expensive for consumers, but others may be cheaper because inflation is not caused by tariffs or taxes but by government money printing, fraud, waste and corruption. So, if you can reduce that, then you can reduce inflation.

Oil prices are down big partly because of the OPEC decision to follow through with their production increase in April and it’s a fact that sanctions will make gas prices rise in the Northeast and California. Yet other parts of the country may see a decrease because of falling oil prices. Gas Buddy reports that gasoline and diesel prices in ME, CT, VT, MA, RI, NH are likely to begin rising today- pace will vary- but by mid-March could be 20-40c/gal higher. Jumps may stretch into NY as well. Wholesale prices as already started to rise in this area. Tom Kloza reported that it looks like the tariff shoes are dropping in New England. Reports indicate Irving Oil is hiking U.S. gasoline and diesel wholesale postings by 20cts/gal or more.

Yet we know the biggest cost associated with the gallon of gasoline is the price of an oil. So, after the price jump, if oil stays down, then the price spike may be short lived.

Consumers may see lower food costs as grain prices drop, except for oats from Canada due to China’s tariff on US grain. While some food products from Canada and Mexico, like meat and fresh vegetables, might be more expensive. Other grains like corn and soybeans will be cheaper. According to the USDA, 77% of fresh vegetables were imported from Mexico and 11% from Canada in 2020.

Copper prices surged yesterday due to positive Chinese economic data but are now falling due to tariff prospects, potentially lowering some consumer goods’ prices. Lumber prices rose but might decrease today with declining oil prices. Add to that unconventional fright policy from President Trump that could see ceasefire deal in Ukraine along with Russia negotiating a nuclear deal for the US with Iran that could lead to a softening of sanctions on Russia and potentially drive down oil prices and free up some natural gas for Europe that they are desperately in need of.

This comes as OPEC moves ahead with what they call a gradual and flexible return of 2.2 mbd voluntary adjustments starting on 1st April. The reason is that Saudi Arabia gave into pressure not only from Russia and the UAE but also the diplomacy of President Trump. Yet at the same time OPEC says that they see healthy market fundamentals and a positive outlook for demand going forward.

Beyond tariffs, there’s the potential for a peace dividend. President Trump is working on a nuclear deal with Iran through Putin, hinting that strict sanctions might be avoided. Putin’s connections with Iran could help secure a deal, keeping Iranian oil available. Meanwhile, diesel and gasoline crack spreads have slightly rebounded, indicating stable demand despite tariffs.

This comes at a time when we should start getting the refiners geared up for the upcoming summer driving season. The American Petroleum Institute report comes out today and we expect to see slight builds across the board. But after that get ready for some big draws in the weeks ahead.

Natural gas prices are already looking ahead to summer. Not only are we seeing the European inventories at generously low levels reports that this summer here in the United states by some weather forecasters could be warmer and drier than normal is causing the market to show some strength. The natural gas market seems to be shaking off its doom and gloom about the future and it’s now embracing the much tighter market than the market thought imaginable just a few months ago.

Oil Price reported, “U.S. natural gas futures jumped in Monday’s early trading session, rebounding from recent lows driven by robust export flows and strong demand forecasts. Henry hub gas was trading at $3.98 per MMBtu at 11.25 am ET, up from a two-week low of $3.74 per MMBtu a week ago. U.S. LNG exports hit a fresh record 15.6 bcfd in February, boosted by new units at Venture Global’s (NYSE:VG) Plaquemines plant. The Arlington, Virginia-based LNG exporter commenced LNG production at its Plaquemines LNG plant 30 months after the final investment decision (FID) was made, making the plant with a 20 mtpa nameplate capacity one of the two fastest greenfield projects to reach first production. Once fully operational, Plaquemines will be among the largest LNG facilities in the world, featuring 36 electrically-driven 0.626 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) liquefaction trains, configured in eighteen blocks.

The U.S. is rapidly developing LNG plants to meet Europe’s surging demand for the commodity. Two weeks ago, Cheniere Energy, for the first time, started producing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the first train (Train 1) of its Corpus Christi Stage 3 Liquefaction Project. As of Nov. 30, the overall project completion for the project was close to 76%; however, the company expects substantial completion achieved at the end of the first quarter of 2025. The project consists of seven midscale trains, projected to produce over 10 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG.

Meanwhile, gas demand in the Lower 48 states is projected to be higher than previously anticipated despite milder weather expected through March 18. Also, stockpiles remain about 12% below the five-year average due to earlier extreme cold. U.S. gas output hit a fresh record of 104.7 bcfd in February.

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Natural Gas Rebounds, Signals Strength with Key Reversal Pattern
By: Bruce Powers | March 3, 2025

• With a key support zone holding firm, natural gas reversed higher, breaking out of a bullish wedge and setting sights on resistance at $4.37 and $4.56.

Natural gas triggered a one-day bullish reversal on Monday following a successful test of support earlier in the trading session. Unless there is a sharp fall before the end of the day, a key reversal day pattern will be complete. Monday’s opening price was below Friday’s low of $3.81 and today’s closing price will likely be above Friday’s high of $3.95.

Also, today’s closing price will likely be the highest daily closing price in four days, another sign of strength. The key reversal day shows strength and improving demand. Trading continues to be strong at the time of this writing, as natural gas remains in the upper quarter or so of the day’s trading range. Currently, the high of the day was $4.17.



Strong Support Leads to Rising Prices

Strong support was seen from the day’s low of $3.74. It is a price area discussed over the past week or so as being potentially a significant support zone since it marks an area of confluence. The 20-MA is at $3.76, there is a 50% retracement level at $3.73, and the 50-Day MA line is at $3.73. Given the bullish reaction, it looks clear that the price zone was recognized. Therefore, a bearish retracement might have completed today, opening the way for a continuation towards resistance at recent highs and possibly new trend highs.

Bearish Retracement Looks Complete

The next sign of strength will be on a rally above the five-day high and prior interim swing high at $4.19. That is also a weekly high from last week. There is then a potential resistance zone from the January high at $4.37 to the February high at $4.48. It is interesting to note that the recent pullback took a form like a falling bullish wedge. A bull breakout triggered today.

This puts natural gas in a bullish position to possibly reach new trend highs. The next higher target is a 50% retracement of a previous interim decline at $4.56. Note the resistance was seen around a top trend channel line at each of the recent swing highs. Nonetheless, depending on how prices rise, natural gas could hit the 50% retracement target and stay below potential resistance around the top trendline.

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Refuse To Bend the Knee. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 3, 2025

Oil prices rise as peace is allusive. Instead of giving peace a chance, Volodymyr Zelensky, blew up the minerals deal and a path to ceasefire. He instead chose to continue the quagmire that is killing his people and destroying his country. President Trump made his position clear and said that “I refuse to bend the knee to their next endless war in Ukraine. I want peace. They want money, and they want conflict. Even if it means walking us to the brink of World War 3.”

Sadly, this war is going to continue, also raising the risk premium on oil. Europe sadly will have to continue to fund this war and will still have to buy natural gas at sharply higher prices. Javier Blas and BLOOMBERG points out that, “Europe starts March with its natural gas storage at ~38.2% of capacity, making it very likely stocks would be at 30-35% by April. Whatever target the EU sets for Nov. 1, absent Russian pipeline gas — big question mark –, it’s going to require a hell of a refile.

Remember that President Trump was laughed at by the left and Europe when he warned about the dangers of Europe becoming dependent on Russia for supply. They are not laughing anymore and because of the short sightedness and their investment in the green new steal (as Kevin Gordan calls it ) it has cost their poor and middle-class money and added to their misery.

BP last week acknowledged their failures and their “beyond petroleum” push and have moved “back to petroleum” and that should signal an end to the big oil renewable push that has shown no profit and no headway on reducing climate concerns.

On top of that Donald Trump is going to make a big announcement tomorrow and talk about cryptocurrencies. It’s risk on the back of the market and that’s going to give oil some significant support. With the expectation of the stock market to move higher, the backdrop for oil is very strong. Seasonally speaking the end of March is traditionally very strong for all crude oil and products so take advantage of any weakness to put-on long-term positions.

The Energy Information Administration is reporting that Natural gas continues to hold in there after getting beat up on the warmup.

The Energy Information Administration is reporting that Refinery closures and rising consumption will reduce U.S. petroleum inventories in 2026 In 2026, EIA forecasts that inventories of the three largest transportation fuels in the United States—motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel—will fall to their lowest levels since the year 2000.

EIA says that Two pending refinery closures will reduce U.S. production of refined petroleum products. When combined with our forecast of growing consumption, we expect inventories for the three fuels to decline through 2026. We forecast inventories for these fuels will end next year at 375 million barrels, the lowest since 2000 when they ended the year at 358 million barrels.

Inventory withdrawals tend to increase wholesale and retail fuel prices because market participants must meet demand by competing for a smaller pool of refinery production. As a result, we also forecast wholesale refinery margins for the three fuels will increase. In our forecast, however, these wider margins are partially offset by falling crude oil prices, leading to relatively smaller increases in retail fuel prices or even a decline in retail gasoline prices.

Reuters reported that – U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he was reversing a license given to Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab to operate in Venezuela by his predecessor Joe Biden more than two years ago, accusing President Nicolas Maduro of not making progress on electoral reforms and migrant returns. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he was “reversing the concessions” of the “oil transaction agreement, dated November 26, 2022.”

Fox Weather is reporting that, “Tens of millions of people across the U.S. from the Plains to the Southeast are preparing for a potential multiday severe weather outbreak this week, with forecasters warning of threats of large hail, damaging wind gusts and even some strong tornadoes. Strong thunderstorms rolled across Oklahoma and Texas to end the weekend on Sunday, but the FOX Forecast Center said the more significant severe weather threat will begin late Monday and last through at least Wednesday.

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$WTI - Crude oil kept trading in a tight trading range in February...
By: CyclesFan | March 1, 2025

• $WTI - Crude oil kept trading in a tight trading range in February. The next 3 year cycle low is due in 2026 so I'm looking for it to eventually break the 2023 low and drop to the 30s. The catalyst is likely to be a recession.



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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 1, 2025

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 25, 2025.

WTI crude oil: Currently net long 141.3k, down 34.3k.



Last week, after six consecutive weekly losses, West Texas Intermediate crude was at risk of continued downward momentum until crucial support from last September’s low was tested. This did occur on Wednesday this week as a rising trendline from back then was successfully tested with a session low of $68.36. The week ended lower 0.9 percent to $69.76/barrel, forming a weekly long-legged doji.

The daily can rally, and for that to happen, oil bulls need to reclaim the months-long $71-$72 and $81-$82 range, which was breached last September, the sooner the better. On Thursday, the crude rallied up to $70.54 before giving back some of the gains on Friday.

In the meantime, US crude production in the week to February 21 increased 5,000 barrels per day w/w to 13.502 million b/d; output has come under slight pressure since reaching a record 13.631 mb/d in the week to December 6. Crude imports rose as well, up 99,000 b/d to 5.9 mb/d. As did gasoline and distillate inventory which increased 369,000 barrels and 3.9 million barrels respectively to 248.3 million barrels and 120.5 million barrels. Crude stocks, however, decreased 2.3 million barrels to 430.2 million barrels. Refinery utilization grew 1.6 percentage points to 86.5 percent.

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NY Crude Oil Futures (CL) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 1, 2025

Natural Gas Extends Bearish Correction, Eyes 50-Day MA
By: Bruce Powers | February 28, 2025

• Natural gas fell to $3.83, confirming a breakdown and targeting lower support levels, with a weak monthly close indicating downward pressure.

Natural gas continued its bearish correction on Friday with a new retracement low of $3.83. It continues to trade near the lows of the day at the time of this writing and could reach lower prices before the end of the trading session.

Today’s decline confirms the breakdown from an internal rising trendline triggered yesterday, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, which is at $3.91. The retracement level held as support for three days before a breakdown triggered yesterday. This puts natural gas in a position to challenge lower potential support levels.



50% Retracement at $3.73

The 50% retracement at $3.73 marks the beginning of a possible support zone that goes down to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.56. Last week’s low at $3.55 marked support for the week and is part of the uptrend price structure of higher weekly highs and higher lows.

It therefore has significance as a drop below it provides a bearish weekly signal and could lead to a drop towards the lower internal uptrend line. Since the weekly low aligns with the 61.8% retracement at $3.56, it deserves extra attention. In addition to a lower trendline target, there is a price zone from $3.32 to $3.31, consisting of the 20-Week MA and the 78.6% retracement, respectively.

Price Range From $4.73 to $3.56

Within the $3.73 to $3.56 price range is the 50-Day MA at $3.71. That looks to be the next key potential support level, particularly since the 20-Day MA has converged with the 50-Day as of today. Both moving averages are rising and are on track converge with the 50% retracement level. Unless there is a sharp drop before the end of today’s session, this week will end as an inside week with a closing price near the lows of the range.

Monthly Chart Shows Downward Pressure

Moreover, February ends today with the sixth consecutive month of higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows. However, the month is set to close in a relatively weak position near the midpoint of the month’s trading range, which is $3.82. The prior two months also ended in a relatively weak position, especially January, which closed near the lows for the month. In addition, the 50-Month MA was exceeded over the past few months but in each case the month ended below the 50-Month line, now at $3.85.

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Hesitation. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | February 27, 2025

West Texas Intermediate oil prices made a run for the 10-day moving average but failed to complete the breakout, keeping us locked in a trading range. Oil prices were hesitant to move higher and break out because of mixed signals like OPEC Plus hesitation as well as a reminder from President Trump that he will not hesitate to enforce tariffs that will out on schedule unless some dramatic changes are made.

Also, President Trump’s peace push is reducing geo-political price risk as he makes a historic agreement with Ukrainian President Zelensky that will make the US a partner in developing Ukraine’s minerals, rare earths, oil and gas and says that he thinks the Russian Ukraine war will end very soon, or it will not end at all.

Yet some are complaining that Ukraine may not have much in the way or rare earth minerals. They do have the potential to increase production of oil and gas in addition to any rare earth minerals that the US can find. President Trump does say that the relationship with Vladimir Zelensky got a little bit testy. Apparently Vladimir doesn’t like being called a dictator, makes him testy. I get it. President Trump also stated that he did not think Putin would invade Ukraine again if they reached a peace agreement with Ukraine. He suggested that Russia and Ukraine could have a strong economic relationship if both nations cooperated. That’s assuming of course Putin gets over his obsession with getting the Old Soviet Union back together and Nato respects its treaties with Russia.

Yesterday oil prices made a run at the 10-day moving average but failed as traders started to wonder if we could see the start of “Oil Trading War III”. Algorithmic traders responded quickly to a headline indicating that OPEC is hesitant about proceeding with an April output increase due to uncertainties surrounding sanctions and tariffs, causing oil prices to rise by almost $0.50. Yet reversed it very quickly afterwards because the next headline read that Russia and the United Arab Emirates still wanted to go ahead with the production increase.

That brought t back memories of past production wars. We all remember the disagreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia about oil production in the beginning days of COVID that led to a production war that helped prices crash to below ZERO! In recent months the UAE have been chomping at the bid to show their oil production prowess. OPEC has restrained them even as they have given the United Arab Emirates the ability to make up for quotas that other OPEC members just weren’t using. If OPEC delays their production increase, it will be very bullish for oil and oil product prices.

Currently, oil prices are fluctuating within a trading range, but a delay will give prices an upside breakout. Generally, the seasonality of oil, gasoline, and diesel becomes bullish around Easter anyway.

In fact our friends at Moore Research points out to look at the price of August crude oil between March 29th and April 14th. It’s kind of 14 out of the last 15 years. If you look at diesel, for example March 29th to April 14th it’s gone up 13 out of the last 15 years. And those summer blends make me feel fine as we get the April run up in gasoline! Between March 30th and April 15th gasoline futures have gone up 14 out of the last 15 years.

President Trump realizes that the United states is going to need rare earth minerals whether they’re produced here or in other parts of the world. Right now, China of course has a monopoly almost on many better earth minerals. Trump has warned China to quit dumping their products here in the United States and we’ll take action to stop. At at the same time China pledges to stabilize grain prices and may intervene in the market to counter potential tariff threats.

Natural gas is hanging after a bullish report. Cold weather caused a bullish report. Working gas in storage was 1,840 Bcf as of Friday, February 21, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 261 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 561 Bcf less than last year at this time and 238 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,078 Bcf. At 1,840 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Weather fluctuations have been unbelievable causing movement in the futures markets. That is why it is imperative that you download the Fox weather app. Tune in to the Fox Business Network because they are the only network in America that is truly invested in you.

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Natural Gas Faces Deeper Pullback Amid Trendline Breakdown
By: Bruce Powers | February 27, 2025

• Natural gas broke key support at $3.91, triggering a bearish continuation. A deeper pullback is likely unless prices reclaim $4.07 and surpass $4.19 resistance.

Natural gas triggered a continuation of a bearish retracement on Thursday as it fell through support from Monday at $3.91. Moreover, today’s decline triggered a breakdown from a rising trendline marking dynamic support for the recent advance. The low of the day at the time of this writing was $3.88 and the day’s high was $4.065, leaving natural gas with a lower daily high and lower daily low for the day. Despite the bearish signal, follow-through is key.

An intraday bounce followed the $3.88 low with natural gas rising above the trendline and into a recent three-day consolidation zone. If today’s session ends above the trendline it will indicate stronger demand that what might be anticipated following a breakdown through key near-term support. Wednesday’s low of $3.94 can be used as a rough proxy for the trendline. Moreover, a daily closing price below the trendline will show sellers remaining in control.



Failed Breakdown on Rally Above $4.07

It is possible that today’s breakdown fails and instead support is retained, leading a rally. A decisive breakout above today’s high of $4.07 would provide a sign of strength that could lead to higher prices. Subsequently, Tuesday’s high at $4.19 would need to be exceeded for additional bullish confirmation. There is a price range of potentially significant resistance around the two most recent swing highs from $4.37 to $4.48.

Deeper Retracement More Likely

Nonetheless, given today’s bearish signal, the more likely scenario to play out is a deeper bearish pullback. Although there is an interim potential support zone around the 50% retracement at $3.73, it also begins a range of potential support going down to a weekly low at $3.55. Both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs are rising and may converge with the 50% zone prior to it being tested as support.

If that happens it may provide a more significant support area given the convergence of several indicators. Further, the 20-Day MA is poised to cross above the 50-Day line, providing another sign of strength. Since the 50-Day MA covers a larger trend than the 20-Day line, it is given priority.

It is also interesting to note that on the weekly chart (not shown) support for this week is around the 200-Week MA, now at $3.92. The low for the week is today’s low at $3.88.

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Crude Oil Rebounds, but Key Resistance Levels Loom
By: Bruce Powers | February 27, 2025

• After a 15% decline, crude oil rebounded from trendline support. A sustained move above $71.77 could strengthen bullish momentum, before it heads to higher potential resistance zones.

A one-day bullish reversal triggered in crude oil on Thursday as it broke out above Wednesday’s high. At the time of this writing, the high for the day was $70.79. Trading remains near the day’s highs, and a new high may be reached before the market closes. Today’s advance followed a potential bottom for the bearish retracement at yesterday’s low of $68.63.

Notice that support for the bearish correction was seen at a rising trendline across the lows of a consolidation pattern established in the final months of last year. Nonetheless, further bullish indications are needed and until then the $68.63 could still be broken to the downside.



Support Seen at Trendline Following a 15% Decline

Potential support around that trendline was discussed previously as a price area that might end the bearish correction. In other words, it would be a likely spot to see signs of strong support. Even if the trendline failed to hold as support, yesterday’s low completed a $12.13 or 15% decline from the recent swing high of $80.76. Certainly, the decline is closer to the end than the beginning. Therefore, a breakdown below the trendline may not go far unless bearish momentum expands.

Similar Drop Seen in Prior Corrections

Four of the most recent bearish measured moves had declines ranging from 14.8% to 18.3%. The current bearish correction is within that range as of yesterday’s performance and therefore likely closer to a bottom. That analysis combined with signs of support following the bottom, improves the chance that crude oil may have completed a bearish correction. Nonetheless, if the $68.63 retracement low fails to hold as support the next lower possible support areas are indicated at $67.82, $66.86, and the 2024 low at $65.65.

Key Resistance is $73.49

Despite the possibility of a bottom being established, it is too early to say with certainty. Rallies face several potentially key resistance areas as the dominant trend remains down. The 20-Day MA is at $71.77 currently and it represents the first key resistance level for a counter-trend rally. A daily close above the line will show strengthening but not enough to indicate a trend reversal.

Currently, the most recent lower swing high, that makes of the downtrend price structure, is at $73.49. Although it is higher than current prices, a bullish trend reversal would be indicated on a rise above that swing high.

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The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | February 27, 2025

President Trump has had success bringing down oil prices by sheer force of will and keeping traders off balance. Perhaps the biggest success has a lot to do with not only signaling to the world that the US oil and gas industry is open for business, but his leadership on the world stage with a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel and a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and back to maximum pressure on Iran and now Venezuela.
President Trump on Truth Social said, “We are hereby reversing the concessions that Crooked Joe Biden gave to Nicolás Maduro, of Venezuela, on the oil transaction agreement, dated November 26, 2022, and also having to do with Electoral conditions within Venezuela, which have not been met by the Maduro regime. Additionally, the regime has not been transporting the violent criminals that they sent into our Country (the Good Ole’ U.S.A.) back to Venezuela at the rapid pace that they had agreed to. I am therefore ordering that the ineffective and unmet Biden “Concession Agreement” be terminated as of the March 1st option to renew. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Yet the threat, once again, comes with the deadline and a call to action that could keep the disputed President Maduro, Chevron and President Trump happy.

Chevron has been lobbying the Trump administration to allow them to continue to do business in Venezuela. US refiners covet Venezuelan heavy oil. And while President Trump doesn’t like Maduro, he might be OK by keeping Maduro in check especially if they live up to the demands that Trump is giving them. President Trump holds all the cards, and he knows it, and he’s playing his hand brilliantly. Either Maduro complies or his economy collapses. President Trump then will continue to push Venezuela to have a free and fair election which if they do, Maduro will be looking for a job. Oil prices that are rallying on the Venezuelan threat.

Crude oil sold off yesterday partly because of President Trump’s comments on the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and the Ukraine. Trump said, “I think we’ll have a deal with Putin. Putin had no intention of settling the Ukraine war. Putin will have to make concessions on Ukraine. We’ll have good relationships with China, Russia, and the Middle East. Zelensky is coming to sign the deal. I will not be making security guarantees in Ukraine, Europe will. Won’t make security guarantees beyond very much, we will be partnering with Ukraine on rare earth.”

Oil prices also saw some downward pressure yesterday after President Trump threatened Iraq with sanctions which in turn had them settling the dispute. Iraq confirmed that, “A deal reached with Kurdistan to resume oil exports.”

Still the crude oil market has a big upside threat with Iran. President Trump is cracking down on those that do business with Iran especially entities in the United Arab Emirates, This this comes as the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has sharply increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in recent weeks, according to a confidential United Nations report, as Tehran amasses a critical raw material for atomic weapons. The increase in Iran’s holdings of uranium enriched to 60%, or nearly weapons grade, gives it enough to produce six nuclear weapons. Iran is now producing enough fissile material in a month for one nuclear weapon, according to the report, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Israel is saying that a “military option” could be required to stop Iran from building nuclear weapons and will ask U.S. President Donald Trump for help in ramping up pressure on the Islamic Republic, according to Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar. What President Trump would do is clear what he would do with Hamas. US President Donald Trump says he’s “very disappointed” about the bodies of four hostages being released today by Hamas as part of the ceasefire agreement with Israel. “They think they’re doing us a favor by sending us bodies,” Trump says of Hamas. “This is a vicious group of people.” “At some point, somebody’s going to say, we got to do something about this,” Trump says during a cabinet meeting.

He reiterates that Israel will have to decide how it wants to proceed with the ceasefire. Trump has repeatedly suggested that he might have returned to the war if he were in Israel’s shoes. He reflects on how badly the families of slain hostages want their loved ones back. “I’ve spoken to a lot of the parents and a lot of the people involved. They want those bodies almost as much and maybe even just as much as they wanted their son or their daughter. It’s amazing, “Please, sir, please. My son is dead, but they have his body. Please. Can you get it for us?’” he recalls.

It is kind of crazy that we have one of the coldest weeks ever and yet we saw a big build in distillate inventories. Did everyone turn their heat off?

Welcome to the crazy world of oil trading and EIA oil inventories. The EIA put U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 430.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil

inventories are about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels from last week and are slightly below the five-year average for this time of year. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels last week and are about 8% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total products demand based on product supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.3 million barrels a day, up by4.2% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, the motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.4 million barrels a day, down by 0.1% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel supplied averaged 4.2 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 13.1% from the same period last year. Jet fuel products supplied was up 4.5% compared with the same four-week period last year.

Natural gas is trying to fight off warm weather. Big report on natural gas today.

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Natural Gas Struggles at Support Amid Bearish Correction Risks
By: Bruce Powers | February 26, 2025

• Natural gas remains range-bound, testing critical support at $3.91. A failure here could trigger a bearish move toward $3.73 and lower Fibonacci levels.

Natural gas looks likely to end Wednesday’s session with an inside day as both the high and low of the day are contained within Tuesday’s trading range. And it is set to close in the red and likely in the lower third of the day’s range. At the time of this writing the high for the day was $4.18 and the low $3.95 and trading continues near the lows of the day.

Support for the day was found around an internal trendline and above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, which was reached on Monday at $3.91. These two lines are key to the uptrend that followed the $2.99 swing low that was established at the end of January.



Bullish if Remains Above $3.91 Support

If support remains above $3.91, natural gas may rise. Although a breakout above today’s high will show strength, an advance above Tuesday’s high at $4.19 would be a clearer bullish sign. Nonetheless, natural gas would be rising into a potential resistance zone that stopped the last two advances at $4.37 and $4.48, respectively. The rising internal trendline marks dynamic support for the uptrend and a bearish signal would be indicated on a decisive drop below that line.

Further Weakness Possible

Moreover, it would increase the risk that this week’s low of $3.91 fails as support and the price of natural gas goes down further. Since resistance was seen at the top of a large rising trend channel in the current advance and for the prior swing high, there is the possibility that the next lower trendline is eventually tested as support.

Either way, that possibility could lead to a notable bearish correction towards lower potential support levels. It is notable that since the 50-Day MA was reclaimed two weeks ago and there has not yet been a pullback to test the 50-Day line as support. That makes the 50-Day MA around $4.69 a potential target. But there are other price levels near the 50-Day line, which can be considered as well.

50-Day Moving Average Support Could be Tested

Although the 50% retracement at $3.73 is the next lower target if natural gas falls below $3.91, lower price levels converge between the 50% retracement and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.56. The 50-Day MA is included within that price area, as well as the 20-Day MA at $3.33, plus a weekly low at $3.55.

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The Great Negotiator. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | February 26, 2025

Oh man, can President Trump’s leadership move markets. President Trump’s deal making and negotiating skills are changing the hearts and minds of world leaders as he leaves his mark on the oil market and works towards world peace. President Trump’s peace initiative is raising real hopes for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The petroleum markets are already starting to price in the possibility that Russian oil and gas will start to flow freely with reduced sanctions. That is fast tracking the possibility of peace and helping reduce the cost of energy which will help the poor and middle class, and just about everybody else.

President Trump caused a drop in oil after he said that lifting the sanctions on Russia were on the table at some point. Yet what really raised a stir was a classic President Trump move and a downward move in oil.

Oil prices were already under pressure after weak consumer confidence but when President Trump said he might meet with the man he called a dictator on Wednesday, it caused a flurry. President Donald Trump did call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator” on Wednesday and warned he had to move quickly to secure peace or risk losing his country. Well son of a gun, what do you know, Volodymyr Zelenskiy seemed to get the message. Not only did he offer to step down from leading his country if he was an impediment to a peace deal, it seems he is dealing with President Trump to pay American taxpayers back for the billions they have spent on this war.

President Trump said that “We have pretty much negotiated our deal on rare earths.” Fox News said that President Donald Trump teased a possible meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy Monday, amid what he called his “serious discussions” with Russian President Vladimir Putin — which could involve European peacekeeping troops — about ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. Now even Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would allow his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump access to rare earth metals in Ukraine’s annexed regions as part of a future deal.

The Trump administration is seeking to recoup the cost of aid sent to the war-torn country by gaining access to rare earth minerals like titanium, iron and uranium. “It’ll be a deal with rare earths and various other things. And he would like to come. As I understand it, here, to sign it. And that would be great with me,” Trump said. “I think they then have to get it approved by their council or whoever might approve it, but I’m sure that will happen.” Trump said the deal is “very beneficial to their economy,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added it is “very close.” “One-yard line,” Bessent said according to Fox News.

This comes as globalist leaders are shaking their head at the incredible success that President Trump is having. Germany and the UK are increasing defense spending. Trump has called on Nato members to spend five per cent of GDP on defense — more than double the alliance’s current spending target. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has agreed at least partially, as he announced on Tuesday that the country’s defense spending would be hiked to 2.5 per cent of the GDP by 2027, up by 0.2 per cent of the current spending. Starmer’s declaration came just hours before he departs for Washington where he will meet US President Donald Trump.

Bloomberg reports that Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz has opened talks with the Social Democrats to quickly approve as much as €200 billion ($210 billion) in special defense spending, according to a person familiar with those discussions.

Presidents Trump’s disgust with the way that Hamas traded hostages could lead to another round of military conflict against Hamas has proven that they are not the type of organization that can be left in a civilized world. Now reports say that Hamas says it has reached a deal with mediators on the release of the 620 Palestinian prisoners who were due to be freed by Israel last week and “an equivalent number of women and children” detained in Gaza since the war began. Israel has confirmed the agreement without giving details.

The Russian News Agency Tass is reporting that Kazakhstan oil flows into CPC are a back to normal levels.

Now Back to Petroleum. At one time BP stood for British Petroleum. Then later they tried to appease the climate crowd and changed the meaning to Beyond Petroleum. Now after investor backlash and after losing money, the new meaning for BP is back to petroleum and back to common sense. BP is going back to petroleum is an indictment of many of the wacky green energy policies as well as other globalist agendas that the people of common sense around the world are pushing back against.

The BBC reported that [Back to Petroleum] will cut its renewable energy investments and instead focus on increasing oil and gas production. The energy giant revealed the shift in strategy on Wednesday following pressure from some investors unhappy its profits and share price have been much lower than its rivals. BP said it would increase its investments in oil and gas by about 20% to $10bn (£7.9bn) a year, while decreasing previously planned renewables funding by more than $5bn (£3.9bn).The move comes as rivals Shell and Norwegian company Equinor have also scaled back plans to invest in green energy and US President Donald Trump’s “drill baby drill” comments have encouraged investment in fossil fuels.

President Trump shook up the metals markets as he said he was opening a probe on copper. Not because of supply issues but for national security issues. This coincides with the Trump Administration’s desire to increase electricity capacity to meet the demands for artificial intelligence and power centers of the future. That is not going to happen without significant amounts of copper. In fact, if you look at the increasing demand for copper in the years to come, we’re heading into a structural shortage. President Trump is way ahead of the curve on this and that is why he’s looking to secure supplies to the United States so we’re not left powerless in the economy of the future.

Crude oil inventories have been building in recent weeks. That may change according to the American Petroleum Institute report. We saw that crude supplies fell by 640,000 barrels last week. The API also reported the gasoline rose by 537,000 barrels and distillate inventories fell by 1.109 million barrels. Today we’ll see the Energy Information Administration report, and the market will focus on that.

Natural gas futures bounced back as weather reports say that the warm up could be just a spring-time tease and we could get another blast of winter. In the big picture President Trump’s desire to get Japan and Korea and Europe to buy more natural gas and to open up natural gas exports from Alaska is acknowledging the fact that the demand for liquid gas is going to grow dramatically in the years to come and the United States has the ability to be a major player in this growth sector.

In its latest report Shell said that, “the global trade in LNG is set to rise significantly by 2040, driven by Asian economic growth, the need to decarbonize heavy industry and transport and the emerging growth in the energy-intense tech sector. Shell says that LNG is becoming a cost-effective fuel for shipping and road transport that can bring down emissions. Longer term, existing gas infrastructure could be used to import bio-LNG or synthetic LNG and NG and repurposed for the import of green hydrogen. They report demand for gas continues to gather pace across Asia, with China and India significantly increasing their re-gasification and downstream infrastructure.

More than 170 million tonnes of new LNG supply is set to come on to the market by 2030, helping to meet growing long-term global demand for gas. But project start-up timings remain uncertain. Europe and Japan will continue to require LNG to fill a wide gap between energy diversification ambitions and actual investment levels. Yet concern about LNG startup times will become more certain in the US with Biden out and Trump in.

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Natural Gas Rebounds from Support Zone
By: Bruce Powers | February 25, 2025

• Holding above $3.91 support, natural gas signals renewed bullish momentum, with resistance at $4.15 and $4.48, while failure risks a deeper retracement to $3.56.

Natural gas reached a new trend high of $4.48 last week, which led to a bearish retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on Monday with the day’s low of $3.91. Subsequently, support around that low continued to hold on Tuesday with natural gas triggering a one-day bullish signal on a rally above Monday’s high at $4.09. At the time of this writing, it continues to trade near the highs of the day, which was $4.12. That put it into a gap from Monday. The gap indicates a potential short-term upside target of $4.15, the low from last Friday.



Strength Follows 38.2% Retracement

If the $3.91 low price completes the retracement, it will put natural gas in a bullish position to challenge and possibly exceed the recent trend high at $4.48. Recent signs of strength include reaching a new trend high and the 20-Day MA crossing above the 50-Day MA recently. A bullish recovery following a minimum 38.2% retracement is a sign of strength relative to a deeper 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Also note the nearby rising internal trendline as it will combine with the 38.2% retracement zone tomorrow. Therefore, a decline below Monday’s low of $3.91 will also trigger a breakdown of the rising line. If that happens then lower price levels will become targets.

Lower Support Zones

Although the 50% retracement is at $3.73, it begins a potential support zone that goes down to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.56. Within that potential support zone is the 50-Day MA at $3.63 and the 20-Day line at $3.60. Also, the peak from 2023 is at $3.64. That peak had significance as a bull breakout above it on December 20 provided another bullish reversal signal for the long-term downtrend.

Contained within Rising Trend Channel

Notice that resistance was seen around the top rising parallel trend channel line in December and January. That channel line along with the short internal uptrend line come together around a 50% retracement level at $4.56. If natural gas can continue to strengthen it could hit a new trend high yet stay below resistance marked by the top trendline. Nonetheless, before exceeding the 50% retracement will have either broken below the uptrend line or above the top channel line.

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Crude Oil Bearish Correction Deepens as Sellers Maintain Control
By: Bruce Powers | February 25, 2025

• Oil prices fell further, nearing critical support around $67. A decisive break could extend losses, while historical corrections suggest a potential bottom forming soon.

The bearish correction in crude oil hit new lows on Tuesday as sellers remained in control. At the time of this writing, the low for the day was $68.96 and it is on track to end the day in a weak position, in the lower third of the day’s trading range. Tuesday’s decline dropped through the 78.6% retracement level at $70.03 with little hesitation, putting crude in a position to test support at an interim swing low of $68.82. It was almost hit today. Shortly thereafter there is a short uptrend line across the bottom of a relatively recent consolidation zone.



Down by 14.6%

At today’s low, the price of crude oil had decreased by $11.80 or 14.6% from the recent swing high at $80.76. On a relative basis, that put it at the low end of bearish corrections that have occurred since the April 2024 peak. There were four corrections identified since then that ranged from a decline of 14.7% to 18.3%. These measured moves indicate that the current correction may be close to completing and that crude oil may have a little more to fall before the correction is complete.

Monthly Bearish Reversal Points to Lower Prices

Crude oil triggered a monthly bearish reversal earlier this month (not shown) and it continues to trade near the lows of the month. This shows aggressive selling with lower monthly support in a range from around $67.11 to $66.65. Given the decisiveness of the bearish retracement, these lower price levels may yet be tested before a notable bounce. There are three more trading days before the end of February, which means that crude is at risk of ending the month in a bearish position, near the lows of the month.

Nearing Key Price Levels

Although the lower trendline provides a potential support line, the next lower support zone is from $67.11 to $66.86. That range is determined by two previous interim swing lows that were established late last year. They represent a more significant support area since a drop below that price range more clearly indicates a possible continuation of the larger bear trend.

Since the $131.31 swing high in March 2022 crude oil has been in a downtrend with a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. However, a new lower swing low for the downtrend was attempted in September with a decline to $65.65. But that decline failed to fall below the earlier swing low at $63.67 from May 2023. The September support zone could be challenged if the $66.86 price area fails to hold as support.

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Power To the People. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | February 25, 2025

Energy Czar, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s call to every U.S. power plant to produce 10-15% more electricity to meet the growing energy needs to expand artificial intelligence is right on and is welcomed by the US oil, gas and utility industry that has been hamstrung by a lack of clarity and commitment by the previous Administration and is getting a ‘right on’ by those in the industry. The AI revolution is going to power the economy of the future, and the US should not loose out to our competitors because of policies that were strong on virtue signaling but short of the relatives and real needs of the American people.

According to current forecasts, the electric power demand for AI is expected to significantly increase in the coming years, with predictions of a substantial rise in data center power consumption driven largely by the growing adoption of generative AI, potentially doubling electricity demand by 2026 compared to current levels. This could represent a major challenge for power grids due to the sheer scale of energy required to run complex AI models. Reports of China’s Deep Seek that some say could lower those demand expectations somewhat but why take chances. Some believe that China may have stolen some chip technology to get to that breakthrough.

Today, Bloomberg reports that, “Trump officials recently met with their Japanese and Dutch counterparts about restricting Tokyo Electron Ltd. and ASML Holding NV engineers from maintaining semiconductor gear in China, according to people familiar with the matter. The aim, which was also a priority for Biden, is to see key allies match China curbs the US has placed on American chip-gear companies, including Lam Research Corp., KLA Corp. and Applied Materials Inc.

This comes that day after Apple CEO Declares that in America he is ‘Bullish on the future’. Fox Business reported that Apple is committing $500 billion to the U.S. economy in a historic initiative, the company announced on Monday, marking “an extraordinary new chapter in the history of American innovation.” Fox Business reports that, “Apple’s 11-figure commitment will roll out over the next five years. It will involve building an advanced AI server manufacturing factory near Houston, as well as doubling the company’s Advanced Manufacturing Fund from $5 billion to $10 billion.

The tech giant also plans to establish an Apple Manufacturing Academy in Detroit, as well as hiring 20,000 new employees with focuses on research and development, silicon engineering, artificial intelligence and machine learning. Bloomberg reported that, “Apple Inc., as it seeks relief from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on goods imported from China, said that it will hire 20,000 new workers and produce AI servers in the US. “

The disclosure comes days after Trump and Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook met in the oval office. “He’s investing hundreds of billions of dollars,” Trump said after the meeting last week. He implied that the iPhone maker is investing locally because it does not want to pay tariffs. Trump has threatened an additional 10% tax on items imported from China, where Apple builds the vast majority of iPhones and other products. But he has traded investment in the US for relief in the past.

In the meantime, oil prices are still stuck in the same old trading range. The market seems to be complacent on the supply side because of recent increases in inventory but at the same time must be wary as the Trump administration signals much tighter sanctions on those doing business with Iranian oil.

Amena Bakr reported that UBS is more bullish that some on the street, They say that “despite many expecting the oil market to flip into a surplus, the structure of the crude futures curve is still downward sloped. This suggests the oil market remains tight, with OPEC+ aiming to keep the market in balance”.

Reuters reports that the Trump administration imposed a new round of sanctions on oil brokers, ships and people it said were linked to illicit shipments of Iranian crude, framing the move as a return to a “maximum pressure” strategy to squeeze the country’s economy. Twenty-two people and 13 vessels were targeted in the latest sanctions, the State and Treasury Departments said in statements Monday. The agencies said they were targeting a network linked to the shipment of tens of millions of barrels of crude oil, and that the sanctioned entities are located in Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, India and China. “Iran continues to rely on a shadowy network of vessels, shippers, and brokers to facilitate its oil sales and fund its destabilizing activities,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement. “The United States will use all our available tools to target all aspects of Iran’s oil supply chain, and anyone who deals in Iranian oil exposes themselves to significant sanctions risk.” Breaking News IRAN FOREIGN MINISTER ARAQCHI SAYS TEHRAN WILL NOT NEGOTIATE UNDER PRESSURE AND THREATS

SAYS NO DIRECT TALKS WITH U.S. AS LONG AS ITS ‘MAXIMUM PRESSURE’ CONTINUES

So for oil and products we stay locked in a pretty tight trading range. Crack spreads are improving suggesting that the demand for products is very good. Weakness in the stock market didn’t help the prospect for oil. In the short term we’re playing range trade with both options and futures. Call Phil Flynn to get my Daily Trade Levels for entry and exit and stop points.

The big warm up cooled off the red-hot natural gas futures. Amazingly though the market is still concerned by the fact that supplies are well below the five-year average and at the lowest level for the last two years.

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Commodities Daily Market Movers (% Price Change)
By: Marty Armstrong | February 25, 2025

• Top Movers

Feeder Cattle (CME) Futures 1.62 %
Gold / Silver Ratio 1.6 %
Cotton 1.54 %
Cotton #2 (NYCE) Futures 0.8 %
Live Cattle Futures (CME) 0.59 %

• Bottom Movers

Cocoa (NYCSCE) Futures 7.2 %
NY Palladium Futures 4.81 %
NSW Baseload Electricity Continuous 4.51 %
AU - Queensland Base-Load Electricity Futures 3.63 %
NY Natural Gas Futures 3.56 %

*Close from the last completed Daily

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