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Trading 10000 shares/day and there’s accumulation?
Yes, the accumulation indicator has gone up, but it’s a relative indicator. In fact many people trade on it in inverse.
Fact is, the people who have bought very few shares lately will watch the pps continue to dip in no volume and with no news. Then they’ll bail into the next pop (assuming there ever is one), and kill any attempt at a rally.
There’s a couple of catastrophic potential news worthy events hanging over this ticker (the security agreement on the note and the protest), and very little left to be excited about.
Assuming the best case scenario, protest gets rejected and the Johann refinances the note) there’s still the little matter of executing on the contract. You know, the $120+m is the top line revenue number, not the profits. Tristar still has to spend the money it takes for ground crew, flight crew, maintenance, fuel, facilities, etc. And then they have to wait for the check from the Navy to arrive. In the interim, they need working capital for their costs of executing on the contract. Where do you think that’s coming from? Debt! They’ll issue more convertible debt which equals dilution.
I fully expect the Johann to take Tristar Air LLC lock stock and barrel, the planes, contract, and everything, as is his due under the the terms of the last refinance.
The only reason he wouldn’t do that is if he’d like to retain the access to funds he can get by being listed - i.e. by dilution.
I fully expect the contract protest to be quashed at some future point, can take a long time folks.
So maybe news drops about the protest being quashed, what kind of bump will that give the ticker? Maybe back to .30.
Maybe news drops about a re-fi, what kind of bump will that give the ticker? Not much of one as no one bought the last pop with any expectations regarding the note - the note that at that time was due in 5 days.
So buyers, meaning volume, cares little about these 2 potential “great” outcomes.
Leaving these 2 aside, I’d expect the next newsworthy item to be an A/S increase, followed by a financing agreement of some sort regarding more convertible debt (the last financing agreement may still be in effect if they still want to loan more money, it was actually pretty good terms, I wouldn’t label it as toxic given it was something like a conversion at a 10% discount to the lowest tick in the preceding 10 trading days or something along those lines).
So either bankruptcy or dilution is coming soon to a TMPS near you.
They are pink and not current, so they also need to raise the cash for corporate compliance, or get suspended and dink to the greys.
I get it, when Scott Terry was still CEO (he resigned for personal reasons in February), the Tristar deal had gone through, contract news was coming, the company was OTCQB and current, and the note was not due for months into the future, this looked like a good bet.
In the interim, Terry quit, note is past due, company is pink and not current, and all the available good news regarding the navy contract has already happened. The day arrived, and the pps went up.
This no longer looks like a good bet to me, I’ll keep watching, since I’ve been emotionally invested in this company for so long, but they’ll have to rehab this “gem” before I’d invest any money.
Good news is I made just shy of $50k on TMPS over the past 2 years, so I’m not disappointed with them. Just sad that management managed to mess up the good thing they really did have going here once upon a time.
People have hobbies, people need hobbies.
I’m under no obligation to have nor want shares in order to post on this or any other Ihub board
Exactly, historically TMPS slips lower in no volume during long periods of no news.
There is no incentive to buy now because positive events are telegraphed in plenty of time to take advantage of news.
There are potential catastrophes hanging over the ticker right now.
Hmmm, so there is some potential for TMPS to go down, and an opportunity for it to go up is phoned in well in advance, I guess the smart thing to do is just wait and see where the pps goes.
And I forewarned the ppl from the old twitter group to take some risk off during that last pop.
The way I have been successful with this and other risky plays is by selling into the pops and riding freebies.
I had over 250000 shares at .17 average on that pop to .38 a while back, and sold 200000 at .36. Kept 50000+ to see where this went.
Contract news was what we were all purportedly waiting for.
Contract news happened, and I sold those 50k+ at .50+.
Besides, the note that was secured by ownership of Tristar Air LLC was due in like 5 days when the last pop happened.
I can see why people would keep freebies, but no clue why anyone would buy more at these prices, there’s too many potential negatives in the mix now.
- note is past due
- contract is protested
- Terry resigned
- to execute on the contract TMPS will need to raise hella cash which likely would be accomplished by dilution.
- etc
Not sure how it happened that the day we all said we were waiting for arrived (contract) and yet only like 2 of us longs from this board cashed out.
There’s a really tough row to hoe ahead for TMPS to make this work.
I’d feel comfortable taking another 50k shares at .10-.13 as a lottery play, but TMPS has already made the moves we all expected and waited on, there’s really nothing left here.
I’m emotionally invested in this board because I’ve been here so long, and I’m happy to keep an eye on things. But let’s call a spade a spade here like we actually used to do and share 100% of the available DD instead of just the rosy half.
There are challenges facing TMPS that are not likely to be positive for the pps.
11000 shares at .20 is $2200, not inconsequential for one day given the average daily trading volume is about $5000
T trades are trades reported out of sequence, that’s all
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/288872459648892929/587824847556444160/image0.png
Over $1500 worth of t trades in the 2 screenshots I posted
T trades obvious on the “trade” tab right here on Ihub
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/288872459648892929/587824847556444160/image0.png
I didn’t point out illegal wash trades, I pointed out t trades
Check it yourself, obviously you use either the Ihub app or the desktop site. No reason for me to post information that is clearly TWO CLICKS AWAY from the screen you’re on right now
There’s t-trades on the Ihub “trades” screen, so maybe you want to check that out
Nearly everyone knows by now that the pps will continue to drop in no news until the next news is released creating a big volume day or two.
It’s the past several years of history from following this ticker.
Potential news releases include information regarding the note (potentially the company loses all their assets to satisfy the note, or it gets refinanced), and news regarding the protest (potential for a bad outcome for the company regarding the protest is low, but it would be catastrophic. Any news regarding a positive outcome in the protest is already priced in and would have little, if any, effect on pps).
So you have 2 potentially very bad news incidents hanging over this company. Neither one, the refi or the win on the protest, will do much to lift the pps if things go well. Either one will tank it if things go poorly.
Very few ppl are willing to pay .19 for something they can most likely buy even cheaper if they wait a bit. The outcomes on the events hanging over this ticker will likely be clearer soon too.
Cheaper price and less uncertainty is what people are waiting for.
In other news, you see those t-trades? Looks like there’s no shortage of shares available, and they are raising money. Of course, since TMPS is dark one can’t be certain. But I’ve seen that behavior on other tickets, and I know what it means.
When I was a TMPS stockholder, and I saw those things happen, I was plenty pissed. Probably some of the current stockholders are pissed right now too.
Down to .19 on 150k volume means the pps is down nearly 33% since last week on 7 times the average daily volume.
This in no way shows accumulation
How down in above average volume means accumulation escapes me, please explain.
Idk, with all the huge buys signaled by that 20k average daily volume we should be on the moon by now
True dat
Drifting lower in no volume, cheaper shares ahead
Tristar Air LLC won a $121m contact, and Tristar Air LLC is potentially 100% owned by Daddy Warbucks as YOU pointed out in your post.
The authorized shares are 29m, but wait for it, the note converts to over 70m shares. Doh.
Obviously the note cannot convert if it would increase the float to larger than the authorized shares, so the note only hypothetically equals 70+ million shares. Duh.
I think it’s obvious. It’s also been discussed in here many times over the past several years which you are well aware.
Ah, I probably should have read the whole thread before posting. Company has been very active on Twitter lately that’s what I thought you were talking about
It’s the same twitter account they’ve had for years. If it’s fake it was done 2+ years ago, and I find that unlikely. Maybe hacked? Idk.
Anyone claiming no dilution hasn’t seen the O/S grow from 40m to 280m over the past several months, so that’s a crock. Wouldn’t be the first time a penny IR lies about dilution, but I’d expect better from a company that is a registered financial entity in Canada.
Clearly and unfortunately, just the fact DIGAF started tweeting again was a great clue about the dilution
You’re right. Johann owns some shares, but his “ownership” is based on the fact he owns the note that hypothetically converts into 70+m shares.
Obviously he can’t convert because the A/S is too small.
His note is secured by the gulfstream, the bluebird planes, and full ownership of the subsidiary LLC that owns the Tristars and was awarded the contract.
He can exercise the security agreement and walk away with title to the gulfstream, the blue bird planes, and 100% of the subsidiary LLC Tristar Air which includes title to the aircraft and the military contract. This is precisely why TMPS is such a risky play right now.
This is exactly why the prudent play was to take risk off during those 2 days TMPS traded at over 1m volume. The note was due the following Sunday, and who knows what Johann’s plans are concerning the note.
Corporate raiders buy debt and leverage it to relieve companies of their assets. That’s exactly what could possibly happen here.
The small A/S may leave Johann no other option but to exercise the security agreement, he can’t cash out any other way, and he can take not only the Tristars but also the contract with him should he choose to cash out.
Essentially the only assets TMPS owns are the aircraft and the contract. (There’s other potential revenue streams like the ads-b but given they’ve had that ability for years and never been able to execute on it I wouldn’t hold onto that straw). The aircraft and the subsidiary company holding the contract are 100% johann’s any moment he decides he’d rather own those assets then deal with the hurdles thus public company is facing (like corporate compliance and the cost of getting it current). So I believe there is a significant probability the Johann will use this opportunity (the past due note) as his chance to bail and take with him everything of value to this company.
Do what you want with your money, but I’d be short this “gem” if it was possible for me to short penny stocks.
In the event there is a RS and A/S raise (likely to 100m shares or more), I would look into shorting it as those actions would signal the advent of major dilution.
So, 35k shares/day, or, drop 5/3 as an outlier (which it is) and the average daily volume for the past 3 trading weeks is 22k shares/day or about $6000/day total volume, at least half of which are sells.
Given $3000 at .30 is basically “a starter” (10000 share block), your spreadsheet essentially proves my case that there has been ABSOLUTELY NO ACCUMULATION of this “gem” since the last news.
And really, why would there be? TMPS telegraphs it’s moves so well there’s no need to tie up capital in it while waiting for news.
The alternative play would be bid sitting for cheapies, but given the likely price decline over the next few weeks with no expected news (hence, no volume) it would be wise to wait for the gap to fill at least before buying anything (which is what everyone smart is doing, which is why there is no volume).
Given the chance of a bad news surprise regarding the note or the protest, or announcement of financing plan leading to further dilution, I don’t want to be caught with shares right now. But I’m happy to revisit that decision if/when anything changes for the better.
Financing is not needed today only because of the stop work order. If/when Tristar Air LLC begins work fulfilling the contract they will need cash for operations.
You do know that the military doesn’t pay in advance, right? Contractors spend their own money to fulfill and then invoice the government and wait to be paid. It’s not as if the US government doesn’t have an excellent credit rating, but they are not quick to pay and the money for continued operations has to come from somewhere. In this case cash from operations will come from convertible debt.
The last financing agreement, without looking it up, was something like a 10% discount to the lowest pps in the last 10 trading days or some such. Actually very good terms for an otc company. But TMPS was otcqb, current, and had a wonder boy ceo at that time. How much worse the terms now that they’re pink, stop sign, and ceo resigned for “personal reasons”?
Best case scenario here is a refinance on the past due note with Johann, and a win on the protest. This best case will only result in more debt. Given the A/S is pretty maxed, we’re talking a RS or A/S being raised here.
Upside is priced in. Volume is non-existent, pps is drifting lower with no news. Might be a lottery ticket when the gap fills.
You know I can’t stay away from DIGAF with the $$$ I’ve made here. It was a regular play for me for a long time, hoping it turns into a good play again.
Tons of accumulation at 20k shares daily volume, rofl
I’m really disappointed the A/S was raised to “unlimited”, DIGAF used to have such a great share structure.
Things seem to be looking up here, but the dilution has been crazy. Probably will continue for the foreseeable future.
Exactly, so you agree there’s dilution
Pretty sure that contract was awarded to Tristar Air LLC. Pretty sure the membership shares of Tristar Air LLC are securing the johanns past due note.
Look at this if you dare, the A/S is 29m, Johanns note would convert to over 70m shares. He can’t convert. His only options are refinance or exercise the security agreement.
Why would he refinance the note when he can own the Tristars, the contract, and the gulfstream and the bluebird planes.
I can tell you why he may refinance - to retain access to public markets to raise the capital to execute the contract. That means dilution.
AND, TMPS is a stop sign so no one currently can convert anyway. That means he has to spend the money for corporate compliance before he can go borrow the money to execute on the contract.
OR, he can just walk away with the planes and the contract and spend his own money to execute on the contract (or do a private placement with the LLC).
The contract means $120+m in REVENUE. The company has to front the costs of its OPERATIONS, and wait on the military to pay its bill. That means in order to fulfill the contract, and get money from the Navy, TMPS has to borrow up front money to operate and maintain its planes. Where do you think that money is coming from? Debt, share issuances, etc.
But wait, the A/S is 29m and it’s pretty much maxed out. Duh, that’s why an A/S raise or RS is coming.
Given only 20000 shares per day trade hands it doesn’t look like much of a coordinated effort to do much of anything.
There’s $6000/day in trading volume counting both buys and sells.
To manipulate the price would take more volume than that in dumps and wash trades alone.
Face it, like usual, and I’ve been around TMPS long enough to have seen it happen 3-4 times, there’s 1-2 days of volume, and then back to nothing.
It really doesn’t matter what the pps is if there’s no buyers. If there were buyers they’d take out that 20k share wall at .2989 pretty quickly.
The only thing that will happen here without news on the note or news on the protest is nothing. Bad news on either will tank it. Good news on either is likely already priced in.
Think about it, assuming the note gets refinanced, and the protest gets dismissed, they still need the money to fulfill the contract. The only way they’re getting the money to do that is through convertible debt. The A/S is too small for any debtor to convert, so that means either an RS or A/S gets raised. Retail investors own a minority of the voting shares, so any corporate actions will pass no matter what retail shareholders think about it.
This is a lose/lose situation for retail. That’s why there’s no buyers.
In the interim, without news, volume stays non-existent and the pps drifts lower. As always has happened with this ticker for the past 3 years.
Probably the only “manipulation” going on here is the bid sitters are keeping it propped up. There’s no shortage of shares for sale around .29. As noted there’s no takers for them or there wouldn’t be that ask wall.
Given this historically trades with a nickel spread, .24/.29 is a common sight. .21s can be had bid sitting, saw those go the other day on that small dump. Probably a 20k share sale into the bid could drop this to .20 or below - that would be equal to the daily trading volume.
I played this ticker for a couple years, I’ve watched the charts, level 2, done the DD. I’m very sure I can tell you exactly what is going to happen with this stock, the same things that have always happened with it. No news, no volume, changes for the worse, and someday a quick pop and then it’s all over for another several months.
When I got interested in TMPS it was an OTCQB stock, current in fillings, with an experienced CEO, and a billionaire investor whose note was due many, many months in the future. It also had no new convertible debt and a potential deal on the Tristars. The company used to do conference calls after filings - what happened to that?
Now it’s a pink, not current, stop sign, wonder boy CEO resigned last February for “personal reasons”, note to the billionaire is past due (and secured by the collateral of the gulfstream, the blue bird planes, and 100% of the member shares in the LLC that holds the Tristars and was awarded the government contract), there was also shares issued under that other financing agreement last year, and more shares issued for maintenance of the Tristars.
As a delinquent filer/non-reporter, I do not trust that any of the info issued by the company regarding share structure is anywhere near up to date. Hell, the company deleted all their social media accounts a couple months ago. There’s no IR, just some leaked info to a couple of posters here while everyone else questions go unanswered.
Bottom line is there are otc scams run better than this “company”. Once upon a time this was one of the few “real” companies in the otc. Now, real company or not doesn’t really matter given how poorly it’s being run. Pretty sure best case scenario is more dilution, and worse case the Johann walks away with the gulfstream, the bluebird planes, and Tristar Air LLC.
$47 paint down? Better check again, that was an $1100 dump 8 minutes before the market closed.
4900 shares at .23+
Half the volume today just about
That’s the otc with a super low volume “gem” like this
Accumulation of what? 18k shares a day? That’s ridiculously low volume for this “gem”. I know you’re looking for the silver lining here, but the stock market gods offered all “longs” a gift to be risk off and ride freebies with the last pop.
At this point anyone who’s not risk off is holding a bag and praying for a positive outcome on the note.
I believe the possibility for a positive outcome on the note is very low
100% of the membership shares for Tristar Air LLC are securing that past due note owed to the Johann
I think you should be more concerned what happens to the past due note this year. Top otc traders who actually do DD wouldn’t touch this turd with a 10 foot pole
He doesn’t need to convert when the note is secured by all the assets of the company, he can just take his planes and his military contract and go home
He won’t CONVERT he’ll exercise the security agreement from the re-fi. Since TMPS defaulted on the note, without a re-fi the Johann owns the gulf stream, the blue bird planes, and 100% of the member shares in Tristar Air LLC.
Pretty good buy for $6m. It’s called corporate raiding, and it’s what billionaires do
Well there was an 8k last February saying Scott terry resigned as ceo, so idk how you can say it’s false
They awarded it to Tristar Air LLC who, because of the restructuring of the note, is owned 100% by the Johann should he exercise his option on the security agreement.
Because of the terms of last years restructure the us government is relying on the full faith and credit of the Johann and not a pink sheet penny company with a stop sign
Probably sent to you before he resigned as ceo last February. There’s no ceo, no scott terry, even he bailed on this turd.