2021 and still haven't started my 100 bagger move (Spectra7 SEV, Lightwave Logic LWLG)
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At this point nothing is set in stone which type will be used in the future
During the Q1 FY2025 earnings call of **Credo Technology Group**, several questions were raised regarding **Active Electrical Cables (AECs)**. Below is a summary of the key questions and answers concerning AECs:
### Acceleration of AEC Growth in the Second Half of FY2025:
- **Question (Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs):** Can you provide more insights into the key factors that will drive the acceleration of AEC growth in the second half of the year? How do you see AEC opportunities beyond in-rack connectivity as we move towards calendar years 2025 and 2026?
- **Answer (Bill Brennan, CEO):** AEC adoption is broadening and has become the **de facto standard** for the lengths we currently address, primarily in-rack. As rack densities increase and there is a shift towards **liquid cooling**, we expect AECs to also be used for **rack-to-rack connections** of 5 to 7 meters. This could lead to an expansion of the **Total Addressable Market (TAM)** for AECs in the long term. Credo is well-positioned with **400G and 800G AEC solutions** and looks forward to future **1.6T markets** with energy-efficient products.
### New Customers and Market Expansion for AECs:
- **Question (Suji Desilva, ROTH Capital):** You expect a new 10% customer in Q2. Is this customer just starting, or is it a gradual growth?
- **Answer (Bill Brennan):** This is an **existing customer** we’ve been working with for several years. As their spending increases, they become a more important customer for us. This is an **emerging hyperscaler**, and we are seeing AEC adoption increasing among both established and emerging hyperscalers.
### Expansion of AECs to Rack-to-Rack Connections:
- **Question (Suji Desilva):** Can you provide more details on how increasing rack density and shorter distances expand the TAM for AECs?
- **Answer (Bill Brennan):** With the increasing **density of racks** and the shift towards **liquid cooling**, the physical lengths for backend network connections are becoming shorter. This opens up the possibility for AECs to be used for **rack-to-rack connections** of 5 to 7 meters, significantly expanding the TAM for AECs.
### Competition Between AECs and Other Cable Solutions:
- **Question (Karl Ackerman, BNP Paribas):** Active copper cables (ACCs) with redrivers are receiving attention. How do they compare to AECs with retimers, and how do you view the market for both solutions?
- **Answer (Bill Brennan):** We do not see the market for **passive copper cables** or **ACCs** as large in the long term. ACCs are primarily driven by **NVIDIA’s strategy** and are not a broad market trend. **Hyperscalers prefer AECs** due to their **interoperability, signal integrity, and reliability**. AECs are the **de facto choice** for **100G per lane** and above.
### Advantages of AECs Over Optical Solutions:
- **Question (Richard Shannon, Craig-Hallum):** You mentioned that AI clusters might shift from optical connections to active copper solutions like AECs. Can you elaborate on this and explain if this trend will continue?
- **Answer (Bill Brennan):** Customers are increasingly focused on **network quality**. AECs have significantly fewer **link flaps** compared to laser-based optical solutions, which is critical in AI clusters where a single failure can result in substantial costs. The **high reliability** of AECs makes them attractive for both **in-rack** and **rack-to-rack connections**, and we expect this trend to continue.
### Future AEC Products and Form Factors:
- **Question (Tore Svanberg, Stifel):** Can you elaborate on the various AEC form factors and the 400G AI AEC backend network solution that you have sampled in recent quarters?
- **Answer (Bill Brennan):** We are pleased with the current ramp of our AEC products, including the **400G solutions**. We see growing demand across the board and expect that **new products and form factors** will contribute to our growth in the second half of FY2025 and beyond.
### Summary:
- **Growth and Adoption:** AECs remain a **key driver** of revenue growth, with an expected acceleration in the second half of FY2025.
- **Market Expansion:** The TAM for AECs is growing due to increasing rack densities and the potential for **rack-to-rack connections**.
- **Competitive Advantages:** AECs offer **superior reliability** and **network quality** compared to both passive copper cables and optical solutions.
- **Customer Base:** Expanding to new customers, including emerging hyperscalers, strengthens Credo’s position in the market.
Credo’s management is **optimistic** about the future of AECs and sees **significant opportunities** for further growth and market penetration.
Credo’s revenues
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q1-2025-credo-technology-group-125022240.html
Looks like they are selling AECs
Semtech
https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20240903726445/semtech-optical-expert-to-present-at-ifoc-2024
In his presentation on Sept. 9, 2024 at 9:55 am local time, Mr. Deng will discuss the advantages of ultra-low latency, low power analog multimode linear pluggable optics (LPO) and active copper cable (ACC) technologies to help enable data center architects to balance capacity growth and power consumption constraints with advanced analog solutions.
### Question:
How could this increase Disney's revenue by offering different subscription tiers? Suppose they used the Render Network for this; what would be the outcome?
### Answer:
The scenario in which Disney uses AI and advanced rendering technologies like the Render Network to create personalized content could have significant implications for their revenue structure and business model. Here are some ways this could increase Disney's revenue:
### 1. **Premium Subscriptions for Personalized Content**
- **Personalized Subscriptions**: Disney could introduce premium subscriptions that give users access to this personalized content creation. Users might pay a higher subscription fee to customize and render their own episodes.
- **Differentiation of Subscription Tiers**: Different levels of personalization could be offered, with higher tiers allowing for more detailed and complex personalization. For example, a basic tier might let users choose a genre or theme, while a premium tier allows detailed storylines and character development settings.
### 2. **Pay-per-Use Rendering Power**
- **Render-On-Demand**: Disney could implement a model where users pay based on the rendering power and complexity of the content they generate. The Render Network could then charge based on the amount of GPU power consumed, similar to cloud computing models like AWS.
- **Microtransactions**: In addition to subscription fees, Disney could introduce microtransactions for extras like advanced AI features, faster render times, or the use of specific premium characters or settings that require additional rendering power.
### 3. **Increasing Customer Engagement and Retention**
- **Increased Loyalty and Engagement**: By allowing users to create their own content, Disney increases audience engagement. Personalized content can keep customers on the platform longer, encourage them to return more often, and reduce churn, leading to higher customer retention.
- **Unique User Experience**: Disney could offer a unique value proposition that competing streaming services do not have, further increasing their market share.
### 4. **New Revenue Streams**
- **Collaborations and Co-Creation**: Disney could offer collaboration opportunities where users can share or even sell their creations within a Disney ecosystem. This could lead to new revenue streams through royalties or a marketplace for user-generated content.
- **Advertisements in Personalized Content**: Disney could integrate targeted ads within personalized episodes, providing a new source of advertising revenue.
### **Implications for the Render Network**
- **Increased Demand for Rendering Power**: If Disney uses the Render Network for this personalized content creation, the demand for GPU computing power on the network would increase significantly. This could create strong demand for Render tokens (RNDR), potentially driving up the value of the tokens and the market value of the Render Network.
- **Scalability and Infrastructure**: The Render Network would need to scale to meet the increased demand, which could lead to further investments in infrastructure and technology. This could also open opportunities for collaboration between Disney and OTOY to develop exclusive capabilities that optimize the Render Network for this specific application.
- **New Market Segments**: The success of such a model would put the Render Network in the spotlight, potentially inspiring other large companies to develop similar services, thereby opening new markets and applications for the network.
### Conclusion
By introducing personalized content powered by the Render Network, Disney could create new revenue streams through premium subscriptions, microtransactions, and advertising while increasing customer engagement. For the Render Network, this scenario could lead to explosive growth in demand for computing power, significantly boosting the value and usage of their platform. This scenario offers substantial growth opportunities for both Disney and the Render Network.
We should compare with credo’s highend cables and if they are selling. If not, then yes, 2025 is the new horizon
It's a bit shameful to copy @JulesUrbach here from @OTOY. but it has been an inspiration to follow this man in his endeavor making compute accessible for the world. As a Belgian I grow up with #TinTin stories with this iconic rocket bringing mankind into space. @render $RENDER pic.twitter.com/PE56jPe7jT
— Steve Schiets ⭕️ (@SchietsSteve) August 8, 2024
Hi Blue,
Im good. I just have nothing to say.
Have still all my shares and will double up if S7 show us any signs of life.
Take care
Good news indeed. Insiders buting is always positive
Something really telling happened. OTOY’s render app is preinstalled on the new iPads Pro. The commitment from Apple is really huge, imo
Let RENDER further unfold
What will be the marketcap at 10 cents?
We will see what the message means. At least things are moving
“We are making progress”
Low cap companies then?
Yes, still it’s normal to have more misses in startups then anything else.
Charlie Munger always said ‘ you deserve what you get’
If you pleasure yourself with the suffering from others, karma will come for you.
Don’t be a bad human having the last laugh.
Thx cleveraces for the feedback.
I mentally took a loss here. Anything up from zero is good news. And it looks like they will close the PP next week. Not sure how much money S7 has to have in order to be ready for the second half of this year.
Fingers crossed.
What is the A/S and will it be max out?
I can't believe I held up the stockprice (with little money), causing the PP setprice to high.
Thx for the feedback. Let’s hope we will get some news this week
No worries X. I hope people buying here and get the perfect entry. High risk, very high rewards.
Not been able to close a modest PP, has me by the balls.
Price is what you pay, value is what you get. Warren B couldn’t have been more right.
No i mean it. Unfreeze it. Sev has money till next week. Unless they find that sponser. To hell or to the moon
Great sskillz, thanks. Unfreeze it and let their blood to be spilled. Feeling extra dramatic this week.
Im not sure how I'm still up there. My two holdings crashed really hard, MVLA and SEV.V.(dd) Maybe I accidentally froze SEV and forgot to unfroze.
I have nothing to say. All i know is that GPUs get bought first and copper cables as last while upgrading to higher systems.
But stranding now is just unacceptable and very disappointing. RH should have done a better job.
I feel stupid
Yes I said that. I too never thought this would happen. But here we are. Weeks away from a possible order. I don't get it. Nvidia is selling H100/A100 for datacenters but nobody is buying a cable?
I haven't sold a single share. And I won't. This is just so stupid.
I have too many shares to sell. Just gonna sit till sale or till bust.
Its definitely not all or nothing. Getting filled with 500 shares
If i do a marketorder it could be 90 cents i pay. There are simply not much shares for sale. The only this I don’t like it the ‘non’ action.
I bumped it to .67.
Ask stays at .66
The bid/ask is 0.54/0.66
Clever way to drop the price and skip by me
The stock price is manipulated. I just checked. Bought 500 shares at 0.63, still the PPS is at 0.56. I didn't get at that price.
47000 filled, almost all above 0.60 cent. 3000 still hanging with a max of 0.65 cent.
Thanks for sharing. Still haven't got my fill. order still at 0.65
Now you are worried about that?
No need. Not looking for a quick fill. It keeps the price from not dropping on marginal trades
Update: still 12k tokens not filled at .65.
Order still open
Getting almost no shares under .65cad.
500 shares here and there
Things changes. Humans need to realize that a new intelligence is here. Not animal but machine. Not alien but handmade by humans. That’s a pretty remarkable event in our history. That’s why i always look ahead.
AI is a big thing and we know it. GPUs were not present 5 years ago, now Nvidia is the top 3 company in the world. A huge company just got so large most missed it. In hindsight we should have seen this coming but in reality most investors missed. Being pinpoint to their believes.
I believed in photonics for the past 15 years plus. Made a little bit of money. Over that period i was told copper is dead on numerous occasions. No future there. Light will be the medium, not electricity.
At this point i still don’t know but that’s ok. My lesson here is that nobody knows. And i feel good about it. I feel peace in the fact nobody knows 100%.
Copper cables will be needed. S7 has a redriver chip that keeps copper alive. No need to convert to light and use extra electricity.
It’s a whole new ballgame with infiniband datacenters. Don’t believe a thing what you read in favor or against. Use your superpower ‘patients’. Be fearless, stick to your investment. Read 100 baggers by Chris Mayers. Also read other books.