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Up to you. These guys seem to understand the market and product fit pretty well. What kind of bugs me is this....
We keep talking about the number of dispensaries as the major metric for success.
I think the major metric is the number of users. Here's why.
X dispensaries will market to Y number of users. Based on the Beta, people were getting deals every 2 days or so?
Let's call that 15 a month. Then they are charging some amount per text sent.
So really... if we are talking about a limiting variable here, it is NOT the number of dispensaries/partners/brands. They could have a full month of texts set with 15 or 20. Dispensaries could theoretically repeat messages each month or couple of months or rotate deals.
So let's say that revenue equals the summation of each "blast" - cost per message sent*#ofusers = rev/blast
Then total revenue per month = number of blasts per month * cost per message sent * average number of users per blast.
So this is why, in my mind, the limiting variable is the number of users. User acquisition is never easy, but the concept is solid. Hopefully, they are focused on getting more users.
We all have the same facts from PR and white paper. You either see potential or you don't.
Nothing is guaranteed successful. That's why this investing in the OTC rather than buying government bonds.
I look for trends. What trends have a seen?
1. Actual steps taken towards a full scale launch including a beta that has some of the biggest retailers in CO like livwell and Mmj america.
2. REVENUES. They have brought an idea into a scalable platform and have recorded successful results for their partners.
3. Expansion outside of CO through NATIONAL blasts for CBD products.
4. Increase in frequency of PR.
5. Decrease in debt and number of financing parties.
6. Increase in A/S to finance growth.
7. Through all this a decrease in PPS.
8. Capability in product development from Beta killers (Ben Tyson is on the board)
It's not all good, but it's definitely not all bad.
What I want to see is growth in retailers/partners, users and revenue. Those are trends that we can follow.
You should probably ignore the fact that they registered their first revenues and announced they are launching the full version in CO and just continue to make ridiculous assumptions
Burke mentioned this in the last PR. Specifcally, they are looking at states in more mature markets where there is more supply than demand, and thus downward pressure on retailers to compete.
Essentially, where new customer acquisition is difficult.
Right now, Las vegas would probably be the worst market to introduce CT into.
First revenue was with Flora which was in the 4th quarter.
I have. I ended up talking to the CEO.
The number on the website says: 720.724.7515
Not sure about this talk about a R/S.
We all know that their O/S was getting super close to their A/S... which means no means of financing unless they somehow were able to produce revenues to cover all expenses (this is a start-up remember??).
The increase in A/S is to finance down the road. If they can create value faster than dilution, then the PPS will rise. Simple as that. And it seems like they have been making progress since Burke taking over in July.
They got the beta out.
Burke cut his salary in half compared to Tew's.
They partnered with multiple dispensaries, including some of the biggest names in the industry. (MMJ America, Livwell, Euflora).
They have produced a live blast that went NATIONWIDE (outside of CO).
They have produced results with their live blasts that are better than anything in the industry. (1000% ROI, and CPA <$3)
They have grown the user base.
They have completed a cross-promotional marketing campaign with Duby.
They have done a blast for products OUTSIDE of the THC part of the cannabis industry.
They have released a white paper detailing the full product breakdown and go to market plan.
They have replied to multiple emails from investors where previously none were answered.
They've reduced the number of market makers to two investors: BNA and Blackforest Capital and it's going towards only one market maker -> less dilution!
They brought Ben Tyson onto the Board. This guy makes disruptive marketing products. Period. Now he has more say in financing projects with CannaSys. Go look at some of the BetaKillers products if you doubt their abilities.
They have released more PR in the past 3 months than they had in the first 6 months of the year.
That's a lot of progress.
The only reason to pull a R/S would be to push the stock into a better exchange.
LOL chill out.
You haven't stopped ranting and raving about a break even point or some other BS metric that has no application in this type of company.
Also, a 12 Billion Authorized Share count is a lot... but remember that there are wayyyy less Outstanding. If they do it right, they will have unlimited financing moving forward as long as they start moving the share price up. IE... they will have to introduce shares into the market at a rate that makes dilution SLOWER than actual value added (proxy for PPS).
Why in the hell would they do a reverse split? That went POORLY last time. There isn't any advantage to pulling the trigger on something like that. Also, I'm pretty sure they would have had to mention that in the 14-c filing. So where did they mention it? The only real reason to do something like that would be to upgrade their listing to get cheaper capital. Even you wouldn't complain about an R/S if it brought CannaSys into a better market. (unless you shorted shares... :p)
The first step is revenue. Burke outlined that in the White paper. That's the focus and will validate the business model and allow it to expand.
The nice part about these types of things is that they are slow moving until they hit a tipping point, then explode out. Patience is rewarded and impatience gets punished.
That or the whole thing explodes in a fiery ball of pissed off investors. I'm hoping for the latter, obviously. It seems that they are focused on the right goals and constantly taking steps to get closer to achieving them.
Increasing Authorized Shares isn't automatic dilution.. but sure points to it as those shares eventually make their way into the market. If they time it with actual developments and following the key milestones outlined in the white paper, the pps will climb faster than any dilution.
I hope they address this issue coming up. That being said... that is quite a bit of capital to access if they have the partnerships lined up. They could have just authorized 1 billion more shares but may have had to repeat the process down the road. In my mind, it looks like a long-term move to have access to capital.
It comes down to if they can actually deliver a valuable product or not. I'm hoping.
Only the mod that posted the sticky can remove it. And that would be downandout
Well, at least the new site looks pretty cool. http://citizentoke.com/
Gotta jab dodownandoutthanksd for that one.
May be better off just putting the numbers straight through the source - www.citizentoke.com
Looks like CT has been running some twitter ads...
This is the page I clicked on through the ad. http://sample2.citizentoke.com/
You may need a dictionary more than you need documents to dig through.
"today announced it plans to launch its core product, Citizen Toke, into the Colorado market in time for Thanksgiving."
PLANS.
Didn't announce a launch. Big difference.
Lol burke got hired in November and you wanted him to release the product that same month?
Dude just sell your shares and leave.
Just got a message from CT for Trill Evolutions.
I dunno. Ask them. Or be patient to hear what's going on next.
Lol take a deep breath man.
On their twitter, they said 'soon.' Then they posted that their first snapp digital ad was live (july 27) via a PR and on twitter (july 26).
I've seen progress. So maybe people will buy in? That's not my concern.
But hey, if you're doubting then sell right now and leave it. If you're frustrated, posting trash on here isn't a good way to deal with it. Call them up. They answer the phone.
Either you...
own shares and are posting constant negativity - unlikely since that may hurt the PPS
don't own shares and are trashing the company because you've been 'wounded'.
You shorted this and are posting negativity to make cash.
The second two seem more likely.
you talking about the tweet that's pinned? Pretty sure that was their first advertisement through Snapp. That was also July 17.
Why do you think that Kodiak pulled the plug?
This is from the S1 filing: "On March 2, 2017, we entered into a second amendment to the Purchase Agreement to extend the commitment period to December 31, 2018, increase the maximum commitment amount to $3 million, and change the purchase price calculation formula for the shares that may be sold to Kodiak Capital to 70% of the lowest closing price for the five consecutive trading days immediately preceding"
So Kodiak can buy shares at a 30% discount on the lowest closing price in a 5 day 'look back' period from when MJTK sells their shares.
That is basically a guarantee that Kodiak will make money, provided they sell the shares quickly (if they think they are going to go down in value), or hold them then sell.
One would think, that with funding, MJTK would be able to produce some results. Recently, they have released a beta product with multiple dispensaries, brands, and users in Colorado. Not great, but not bad.
From Kodiak's perspective, any injection of cash will likely result in a greater payback, especially when considering the discount and look back period.
So why would they pull the plug? This is about as close to a guaranteed winning investment as you will ever find.
So this is how a Beta works. Pay attention.
Release the product to a subset of customers and users to work out any bugs and build a process for converting revenues while keeping both groups happy.
Ironically, the stock price would skyrocket if they threw out some trash product half-assed a month or two after the announcement of the beta with ANY report of any revenue.
But that's basically what you're asking for. Let's just all thank our lucky stars that you aren't the one giving advice to the founders.
The S1 amendment was filed to announce that MJTK would have a line of credit with Kodiak capital to sell shares, called a put.
The retraction means that they are no longer going to use Kodiak as a funding source.
I think its one of those 'necessity is the mother invention' type arguments. The platform was made because marketing is trash in the marijuana industry.
Then... if it works in MMJ, a highly regulated market, then it CAN work in other markets, although the barriers to entry will be significantly higher, since you are competing with the companies that don't compete in MMJ like facebook and google.
So in effect, the regulation lowered the barriers to entry for a new marketing platform, allowing Citizen Toke to compete.
You're spot on. I think they can white label the CT tech to other verticals if its proven effective in the CO mmj market
Good points to all.
Seriously, if this tech was limited to CO only... I wouldn't have invested.
This is just my opinion... but I think they are testing the Citizen Toke tech for CO to prove ROI for dispensaries competing against weedmaps, leafly, and leafbuyer.
If they can pull this off, we will see a quick expansion to other markets outside of CO.
The heart of this is not necessarily marijuana marketing tech... its marketing tech for any type of company that wants to sell product quickly.
If you've seen the limited time redemption concept.... that type of IP is a first to market BEAST. the mmj market is prime because it is hampered by so many laws.
For example... 90% of every dollar spent in digital marketing goes to Google and Facebook, both of which have cut of MMJ marketing entirely.
Citizen Toke punches a hole in the wall for marketing when the doors are closed. Better yet? If they can make it work in the most highly regulated industry, they can make it in other verticals like food, coffee, and alcohol.
I believe in the BetaKIllers more than CannaSys. Their mantra is focused on simplicity... for user and paying client. A simplistic marketing engine is catalyst that will accelerate the conglomeration of many dispensaries in CO and other states.
This is similar to the california gold rush. Sure there were people that got rich finding gold... but the auxillary companies that sold picks and shovels did better overall.
Citizen toke offers a platform for new customer acquisition and quite possibly a loyalty program if the technology is better than existing loyalty programs in terms of conversions.
So again, if they can get traction in the CO market, they can expand to any state that has legalized recreation weed. That's what this beta is all about.
I have to say though that they haven't given any sort of communication with how the beta is going. NO metrics. No click through rates, no total on number of users, nothing. Infuriating. These beta metrics are what will determine probability of expansion.
Is the Meadow you're referring to the cannabis delivery service? The way I see it... it's not a competitive threat but rather an excellent opportunity for collaboration.
The thing about CT is that it gets new customers in the door, quickly. Maybe they'll even move into loyalty programs if the market and ROI (CTR and conversion) is there.
HIt them up and see if they want to work with CT. I'd imagine the partnered dispensaries they have could really benefit from this.
Anyone heard of EIN Press Release services? No idea what they are doing... but we got PR today?
http://www.einpresswire.com/article/394798535/citizen-toke-beta-platform-showing-strong-user-response-to-initial-ads
What makes you say that?
Where are you getting this info?
I'm pretty sure that tweet they did with the video is for an ad they made. So they'll be releasing the ad soon.
2.6 million in debt.... Check out the actual cash flow statements. For convertible notes... they are written off as debt. Actual cash flow was closer to -500K for the year. (Less than 50K/month). This number has only improved with Burke taking a lower salary and many of the overhead expenses being cut like offices and other people on the team.
Between decreasing total debt, decreasing overhead expenses and improving overall cashflow, they have gotten a product to Beta with multiple partnered dispensaries. Not bad.
I keep seeing people post about the reverse split. After the massive dip in market cap after the last one, I would think that the management wouldn't be too keen on trying something like that again.
There isn't really an advantage to doing an RS unless they are trying to get MJTK listed on another market. And, at least for now, I don't see that happening.
I just hope they can find another funding source outside of Kodiak. Poisonous dilution for sure.
Something to be understood about the Feds stepping in...
In general, the trend for federal to state funding has been to cut funding to individual states for education, highways, etc. This is why many colleges have pushed tuition costs to students over the past couple decades because of a massive drop in federal funding to state universities.
MMJ has been such a tax boon for the states that have legalized that the financial incentive is in their favor to CONTINUE not to follow federal regulation.
2016 - Colorado pulled in 200 million in tax revenue from MMJ. You think the state government would calmly let the feds take that from them? Doubtful.
Even if the feds decided to crackdown on MMJ tomorrow, they would likely get no cooperation from the states and the entire process would be prolonged, perhaps indefinitely. It would be a lose-lose battle of state v fed.
Not saying the feds couldn't bring the hammer down and destroy an industry, but the resources to do so would be met with such a backlash that I don't think it would be possible, particularly when such things need to pass through the Legislative Branch.
Marketing? No idea. Haven't seen anything
Thanks. Happy to share my DD
The PR said that Herbal Alternatives and Pineapple Exchange were on for the Beta partners. And the latest PR has said that Livwell, MMJ America, Euflora etc. joined the Beta as well. I'm not sure there is a difference here.
What is strange is that the first dispensaries mentioned haven't sent out any deals that I'm aware of. Also, Pineapple Exchange is Medical only (from their site), and I thought this was a recreational dispensary product. So that's pretty strange.
From what I've seen... dispensaries are pretty fickle. They could have dropped CT or gotten some wires crossed. That definitely seems to be the case for Pineapple Exchange.
In the grand scheme of things, these two dispensaries have very little brand recognition compared to the other ones that are partnered and actively sending deals. Users probably don't care either. I'd be worried if they were the only two announced Beta partners... but the latest releases more than makeup for them disappearing imo.
In conclusion. No f*ing idea.
Good question on the patent. Software patents are interesting... because you have to release your proprietary algorithms/codes. Most companies do NOT patent software because making those things public allows a competitor to go in, copy and paste the code and change some relatively minor things to have it operate the same way.
For example... Google never patented its search algorithm because making the variables public would be a disaster for competitors and anyone who likes to game SEO.
So for the patent? Not terribly concerned about a patent.
Now for revenue models:
This Citizen Toke platform is sending texts from dispensaries to users.
I see two options...
1. Charge dispensaries on a 'per-text-sent' basis. Revenue = avg # of texts sent per user * # of users
2. Charge dispensaries subscription for up to X amount or unlimited texts (charge different rates for cut off points). -> Revenue = avg rev/dispensary * # of dispensaries.
So a caveat for 1 is that the users will NEED a large number of dispensaries to find value in the offering. You wouldn't want repeated texts from 2 or 3 dispensaries.
A caveat for 2 is that dispensaries would demand a large number of users because if they send texts to the same user again and again, they aren't acquiring NEW customers. Most dispensaries already have a loyalty program which kind of nullifies the value proposition to using Citizen Toke with a low number of users. On the flip side, with unlimited texts, dispensaries could saturate the user base with an absurd amount of texts making it an awful user experience.
The take away? If one of these two revenue models is true then the overlap makes it essential for Citizen Toke to have a LARGE number of users AND a LARGE number of dispensaries on board. Personally, I would think number 1 so they can control the number of texts received by user.
It seems so far that they are realizing this logic and working hard to get dispensary partnerships while pursuing user acquisition. Hopefully, both groups become so used to using the platform that monetizing is a no-brainer.
For reference -> In Denver alone the population is 660K. On average, you have 12% of the population that smokes monthly. We'll call it 10% for simplicity sake and say 600K as population. So 60K people are within the target market for Citizen Toke. www.denverpost.com/2014/12/26/marijuana-use-increases-in-colorado-according-to-new-federal-survey/
What percent of this market can Citizen Toke penetrate? 1%? 10%? 50%? (600, 6000, 30000 people).
In monetizing these users, what do we expect average revenue per user/ per month?
On the low end, 1 user receives 1 text a week (4 per month) - so far based on DeezNuts experience, people receive MORE than that. Say they charge per text sent instead of an unlimited subscription model. Charge 2 cents a text sent? Assume no COGS (doesn't cost anything to send a text or near close to zero). 0.02*4*# of users = monthly rev. to hit 40K they need 500 thousand users. What about 25 cents per text sent? They need 40 thousand users to hit 40K monthly revenue.
Hopefully, they charge more than 2 cents! although that's just mine.
Hypothetically if they have enough users AND they get the number of texts sent per user per month AND they get a solid competitve pricing model, they could break even in Denver alone.
Good points. As a digital marketing intermediary, I would expect their margins to be quite high, although it is frustrating to not hear any facts confirming such.
That being said, when working with digital ad tech, cost of goods sold usually ends up being pretty close to zero. Where that scale to cover overhead exists is a concern, but I think the fact that there is a 'magic' scale number where overhead is covered exists is important. 10 dispensaries? 20? 100? 1000?
Will they have the cash, the balls, and the market acceptance to move it to this point? Hope so.