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Updated this review of the bull and bear cases:
The bull case on GALT is simply stated in this manner:
1.) The FDA has allowed them to go to Phase three on the strength of a portion of the data from their Phase II test where the top line was missed. But about half the population of patients (those without esophegal varices) did respond well to the drug and that is what the Phase III study will test.
2.) They are the first late stage NASH drug to go ahead to phase III. The competitors in this portion of the NASH market are about 2 years behind them.
3.) Due to the large size of the NASH market and GALT's likely getting a drug on the market first, big pharma likely is interested in partnering or buying the company.
4.) The company hired advisors to shop itself to big pharma and BMY has already indicated interest in buying or partnering in the NASH arena.
5.) They also have a cancer indication in phase I tests that appears to supercharge Keytruda. Further test results on this should be out soon.
6.) The market cap of the company is tiny and any deal done with big pharma could yield a stock price much, much higher than the current one.
7.) The chairmen of the board is a billionaire who gave the company some really attractive terms for financing earlier this year so it has plenty of financial room for maneuver.
8.) The company instituted Transaction Bonuses that end at the end of 2018. If a transaction (partnership or sale of the company) is attained, key management personnel can get paid a bonus equal to 3X their annual compensation. These bonuses peak at a transaction valued at $1.5 billion.
9.) GALT's drug seems to be effective at cleaning up fibrosis, wherever it occurs. They just added a patent for Pulmonary fibrosis. If big pharma is convinced its positive impact on fibrosis is real that means there are lots of other big money possible indications for GALT.
10.) A board member made a small purchase of the stock this week.
The bear case is simply stated as follows:
1.) The CEO quit in early June, right after the new chairman and vice chairman of the board seemingly took charge of selling the company. He is a notable scientist in this field and his loss has to be felt at several levels. And why in the world did he quit? What does he know that we wish we knew?
2.) There has been a lot of insider selling related to 12b-5 plans that allow insiders to sell at predetermined levels despite any insider trading restrictions that might normally keep them from selling. These sales were put in place int he late February/early March time frame and triggered for different executives and board members during June as the share price ran higher on the back of transaction bonus and financial adviser hiring news. Not all insiders put such plans in place and neither the new billionaire chairman or the vice chairman have sold any shares. The vice chairman actually bought shares back in February. But for those that did sell, why were they willing to sell at these prices when they set these plans up earlier this year? While the FDA had not given the go ahead to go to Phase III yet, there really was not any other noteworthy info back then that we do not have right now.
3.) Last week the CFO sold half of his remaining holdings for nearly $2 million. These were normal sales not ones predetermined at certain price levels back in late February/early March via 12b-5 plans. Why would he sell if he thought an attractive transaction was a high likelihood?
4.) Will the ex CEO exercise his options on about 1.7 million shares and sell them prior to the end of the 90 days he has after leaving the company to do so?
5.) Will the fact that GALT is furthest along in the FDA testing process and that it is treating NASH after it is actually a real medical issue for a patient, rather than before like most of the other NASH companies, make it more attractive to big pharma or are there other aspects to the medical side of the equation that make GALT's approach less attractive relative to the competition. Some suggest that a carbohydrate based drug is not as likely to be approved by the FDA.
6.) GALT has had a sketchy history of communications with the market leading long term observers to be wary of what it says.
The bull case on GALT is simply stated in this manner:
1.) The FDA has allowed them to go to Phase three on the strength of a portion of the data from their Phase II test where the top line was missed. But about half the population of patients (those without esophegal varices) did respond well to the drug and that is what the Phase III study will test.
2.) They are the first late stage NASH drug to go ahead to phase III. The competitors in this portion of the NASH market are about 2 years behind them.
3.) Due to the large size of the NASH market and GALT's likely getting a drug on the market first, big pharma likely is interested in partnering or buying the company.
4.) The company hired advisors to shop itself to big pharma and BMY has already indicated interest in buying or partnering in the NASH arena.
5.) They also have a cancer indication in phase I tests that appears to supercharge Keytruda. Further test results on this should be out soon.
6.) The market cap of the company is tiny and any deal done with big pharma could yield a stock price much, much higher than the current one.
7.) The chairmen of the board is a billionaire who gave the company some really attractive terms for financing earlier this year so it has plenty of financial room for maneuver.
8.) The company instituted Transaction bonuses that end at the end of 2018. If a transaction (partnership or sale of the company) is attained, key management personnel can get paid a bonus equal to 3X their annual compensation.
The bear case is simply stated as follows:
1.) The CEO quit in early June, right after the new chairman and vice chairman of the board seemingly took charge of selling the company. He is a notable scientist in this field and his loss has to be felt at several levels. And why in the world did he quit? What does he know that we wish we knew?
2.) There has been a lot of insider selling related to 12b-5 plans that allow insiders to sell at predetermined levels despite any insider trading restrictions that might normally keep them from selling. These sales were put in place int he late February/early March time frame and triggered for different executives and board members during June as the share price ran higher ont he back of transaction bonus and financial advisor hiring news. Not all insiders put such plans in place and neither the new billionaire chairman or the vice chairman have sold any shares. The vice chairman actually bought shares back in February. But for those that did sell, why were they willing to sell at these prices when they set these plans up earlier this year? While the FDA had not given the go ahead to go to Phase III yet, there really was not any other noteworthy info back then that we do not have right now.
3.) Last week the CFO sold half of his remaining holdings for nearly $2 million. These were normal sales not ones predetermined at certain price levels back in late February/early March via 12b-5 plans. Why would he sell if he thought an attractive transaction was a high likelihood?
4.) Will the ex CEO exercise his options on about 1.7 million shares and sell them prior to the end of the 90 days he has after leaving the company to do so?
5.) Will the fact that GALT is furthest along in the FDA testing process and that it is treating NASH after it is actually a real medical issue for a patient rather than before like most of the other NASH companies, make it more attractive to big pharma or are there other aspects to the medical side of the equation that make GALT's approach less attractive relative to the competition.
Thanks for an excellent reply
I know many of you don't want to hear my negative take on the data today, but try to view it as dispassionately as you can as it is likely important for many of you to hear it. The PR was not good. Perhaps the most telling thing was the company stating that this data will help them recruit for the mono trial, but notice they did not say this would position the company nicely for filing a BLA on combo therapy. The letters BLA did not show up anywhere in the press release. That omission tells you all you need to know. The low "p" value also tells you that there may have actually been many non-responders. The fact that there was so little additional info released suggests this as well. If the data was very good, they would have told us all about it.
The stock price fall seems to confirm these suspicions. The big dollar raise a few days ago may also indicate the company knew bad data was likely as they would have waited for the warrant conversion money to come in if they thought the data would be good rather than raise before bad data was released. The lack of a celebratory conference call tells you a lot as well.
There will likely not be any combo BLA. Revenues and profits are a long ways off for CYDY and there is a lot more money that is going to be needed to raised to get to a point of success with the mono trial. That was always the case, but is even more so now. I can't imagine how many shares outstanding there will eventually be.
The folks that bought stock the other day may be calling their lawyers right now, although they likely don't have a case.
I hope I am wrong but I fear I am right. If you are long this stock, you need to think about this perspective. If you can get the company to answer direct questions about the trial, that would be best. But based on what was released today, the road to success just got steeper and longer. The $9 million raised this week is not going to go too far either and a financial crisis could be on the near term horizon. Surely, the Paulsen clients are tapped out, the story the company would use to sell hope in the future is not there right now and big pharma is not going to come to the rescue based on sub-optimal combo trial results.
The release is unusually bereft of actual data, which is curious to say the least. Normally, such exciting news has at least some description of the results. Very odd. And there is no conference call to discuss them with investors?
Notice too a $9.9 million issuance of stock and warrants announced today but completed 3 days ago - wonder who the buyers of that were and what information they might have had?
The big question now is how many will convert their warrants and how many of them will quickly cash in their newly acquired shares. The more that sell the less the share price will advance. But it should advance nicely nevertheless.
We should not own ICPI based on lower manufacturing costs. You own drug stocks because their drug is great and commands such a high price that the cost of manufacturing is an afterthought. IPCI has such drugs but it is going to take awhile to get them approved. Generics are not going to help that much, no matter where they might be manufactured
You may be right about that but the buyers of that offering would waive that condition if the company made a good case to do so. And running out of cash is a very good reason!
On China, the key is once again cash. Does any deal that gets done involve an upfront cash payment to IPCI? Drug prices in China are quite low, thus none of the major companies spend a lot of effort there. There may be some small business benefit coming from China if they are able to conclude a deal that brings IPCI upfront cash. In fact, getting cash in this manner is probably the best option as share issuance dilute our interest as do partnerships on our US-targeted products. But it is hard for me to see how China might be a game changer for IPCI.
My read on the volume spike/Wainwright report was that the broker effectively helped the company issue shares through the ATM with its report and the buying it attracted for that one day. The company needs cash and they probably got a decent amount on that day when the volume went through the moon. When the company does an official offering sometime in the future, Wainwright will likely be the underwriter.
Thanks for the response
What was the point of doing that financing via a convertible note? How was that explained to you at the time of the offering? If Tony just thought the note would end up being converted, why issue a note in the first place? Why not just issue more stock and warrants?
I too expect the PE data to be good but my confidence in that has waned due to all the delays and lack of communication. It is harder to believe all is well with the delays and absence of communication about them.
The financial situation of the company is very perilous and it is clearly getting harder for the company to raise new funds as each new raise is for smaller amounts and at lower prices. The current ratio is screaming bankruptcy. The amount of money they need to raise if the data is good is still very significant, just to get the company back to being situated at a normal level (where the current ratio is above 1). Then you need money to complete trials and you are still two years away from revenues in the best case scenario. That's if everything goes well and that has not been the trend.
For those who think I am dumping on the company, you should stop and think a little about what I am saying and if it is accurate before assuming I am just a bear trying to scare folks. There is a pretty narrow road to success for CYDY at this point and the track record has been worse than even I thought over the past 18 months.
And it confirms they are running on fumes financially. Not sure how they will get the combo data out by the warrant conversion date but they sure need to do that. But if Tony and friends want their money back, the capital raised from the warrant conversion will be gone immediately.
10-Q is out. I hope you all trust Tony and his friends who bought the convertible notes to be willing to roll them over on 1/31. They hope to have their 50 patients in JAnuary.
If there is a not a quick buyout as many here suggest will happen, there will have to be a sizable new equity issue, likely several over the course of the next two years, to keep things moving since they will not have revenues during that time period.
I have not bought yet because of the dilution issue and because I am not as sure as I once was that the trials are going as easily as I earlier would have thought. The constantly missed deadlines and lack of communication is not something one usually associates with successful trials and companies. If the combo trials results are poor, than the company is bankrupt. I hope everyone realizes that. You should know your risks.
If the combo trial results are good, then there is a future for the stock and it could be very impressive. I see no need to run the risk that the trial results are bad since if they are it is fatal. If they are good, there will shortly be an equity offering (in addition to the warrant conversion) and I will review the situation at that time. Good results means the company should survive and there will still be plenty of upside left even though I will have missed the big initial bounce.
Unfortunately, the trend is not our friend on Seroquel:
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule QUETIAPINE FUMARATE
View TRX Count By Payment Type By Week
MALLINCKRODT...
Payment Type 12/29/2017 12/22/2017 12/15/2017 12/08/2017 12/01/2017 11/24/201
Total 477.00 516.00 648.00 639.00 725.00 481.0
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
Not much better on Seroquel:
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule DEXMETHYLPHENIDATE HCL
View TRX Count By Payment Type By Week
PAR PHARMA
Payment Type 12/29/2017 12/22/2017 12/15/2017 12/08/2017 12/01/2017 11/24/201
Total 3.70k 4.92k 5.51k 5.76k 6.38k 4.92
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
On the subject of the company's silence with regard to important timelines, it would be wise to remember they are running on fumes from a financial perspective. They are literally crawling across the finish line (we hope). The lack of cash has to have impacted negatively their ability to fill one or maybe all of their trials. But they really only need good results on combo and they may be able to convince the warrant holders to convert, thereby providing some capital and getting them across another finish line on Mono or GvHD. Management will have amazing stories to tell at some point down the road if they are able to pull this off.
FYI, unless they sign a partnership agreement or come up with some other alternative for cash, the math is pretty straightforward and they will do another offering before too much longer. A partnership might be possible but, based on the company's track record on this front, we probably should not be counting on it. You should assume another offering until proven otherwise. It is not a question of if but when.
Interesting find - great work! Now, what does it mean? Is it something meant to present an element of fear into the minds of warrant holders minds that they might miss out on a great deal if they don't take advantage of it in advance of any news being released but it really just a ruse? Or does it reflect the possibility that some partnership or buyout was about to happen and got delayed but is still a possibility. Or was it just an oversight by the lawyer the first time to include language like that which is just boilerplate?
It would be nice if the company just came out and made things clearer. The fact that they have not done so is worrying. Usually, if good things are happening, signals are given that indicate things are leaning in a positive direction. That is not happening here.
It sure seems to me that something they thought was going to happen by 12/22 failed to happen. Otherwise why not make the original deadline in January. So, it seems we are on to plan B and that likely is data on the combo trial. Hopefully, the money raised the other day will be sufficient to get them to the data release and the warrant conversion. Also, I don't remember when in January the loan on the convertible notes sold to management come due but hopefully,those will be extended too.
One has to assume something is up since there has not been a news announcement that would encourage warrant holders to convert. Why put that plan forward if there was not going to be news to make it an easy choice to convert?
The question now is did something go amiss with the good news they were hoping to announce or is something positive on the buyout or partnership front happening that would bring the company more money if the warrants were not converted now. The latter would be unusually good news and that has not been the trend with CYDY. But one never knows. All I can say is something either very bad or every good may be about to happen. The bad would be bad combo results, no cash and no way to raise any more, and then bankruptcy. The good would be good combo results, a partnership of some magnitude or a buyout. I suppose there is a possibility of good combo results and an extended warrant conversion period but it is not clear to me the company has the cash to get to that point.
Due to the suspect data coming from Symphony, the trend is probably the best thing that comes from the data. Also, I have been posting sales numbers assuming the list price of the drug is the real price. But there are discounts involved that lower those revenues. There is another option called "manufacturers benchmark sales" that I beleive tries to account for those discounts. Perhaps I should try posting that from now on.
The key issue for IPCI right now is not sales but cash. How much do they have? How much will they raise? When will they raise it? Will they get it from a partnership deal instead of an equity raise? Sales from Seroquel and Focalin just are not going to be enough to fund the company going forward.
Seroquel Monthly Dollars:
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule QUETIAPINE FUMARATE
View TRX Dollars By Payment Type By Month
Date Range mm/dd/yy - mm/dd/yy
MALLINCKRODT...
Payment Type 11/30/2017 10/31/2017 09/30/2017 08/31/2017 07/31/2017 06/30/201
Total 1.91M 2.24M 1.83M 1.15M 412.51k 138.47
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
Seroquel Weekly Dollars:
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule QUETIAPINE FUMARATE
View TRX Dollars By Payment Type By Week
Date Range mm/dd/yy - mm/dd/yy
MALLINCKRODT...
Payment Type 12/08/2017 12/01/2017 11
Total 424.12k 489.86k 315.22k 444.36k 490.53k 491.69
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
Focalin Monthly Dollars:
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule DEXMETHYLPHENIDATE HCL
View TRX Dollars By Payment Type By Month
Date Range mm/dd/yy - mm/dd/yy
PAR PHARMA
Payment Type 11/30/2017 10/31/2017 09/30/2017 08/31/2017 07/31/2017 06/30/201
Total 7.00M 7.21M 6.62M 6.69M 5.19M 5.75
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
The decline in November is partly related to the Thanksgiving holidays but the trend is still one that has leveled off and is declining slightly. Here is the weekly sales data:
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule QUETIAPINE FUMARATE
View TRX Count By Payment Type By Week
Date Range mm/dd/yy - mm/dd/yy
MALLINCKRODT...
Payment Type 12/08/2017 12/01/2017 11/24/2017 11/17/2017 11/10/2017 11/03/201
Total 639.00 725.00 481.00 708.00 744.00 726.0
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
This is monthly prescriptions - notice the decline in November - not what we wanted to see.
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule QUETIAPINE FUMARATE
View TRX Count By Payment Type By Month
Date Range mm/dd/yy - mm/dd/yy
MALLINCKRODT...
Payment Type 11/30/2017 10/31/2017 09/30/2017 08/31/2017 07/31/2017 06/30/201
Total 2.91k 3.27k 2.65k 1.74k 636.00 209.0
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
That is a the only theory I have heard so far that would explain why the Warrant conversion offering is going forward without some major positive event tied to it. But, I can't believe all those warrants are about to expire. HAS anyone looked into the expiration dates on the warrants eligible for conversion?
If someone has time to do that and the answer is most of the warrants still have quite a bit of time left on them, then we are back to square one wondering what might have gone wrong with management's warrant repricing plan. Why put forward a 12/22 deadline if there is no data or info to entice you to put additional cold hard cash on the table for CYDY shares? It makes no sense, so they must have thought they would be able to release something other than the combo trial will continue.
With no announcement of the interim PE data, I need insider buying now to assure me all is well. Past insider buying is not relevant as there is now new info that we are not privy to but they are.
Nadar is making a ton of money with his salary. He should be able to easily buy $50,000 worth unless he spends everything he makes.
How do you know the company has not slowed down due to lack of funds? I think the facts suggest they have slowed things down. There has not been enough money raised to keep spending at the same level as before so they must have slowed things down. Something has to give.
They need something to get those warrants to convert. I think everyone here thought it was going to be interim PE data. When they punted on that, you really have to question what else they can pull out of their bag of tricks to incentivize the conversion. And if there is nothing else, then the only reasonable conclusion that can be drawn is something went amiss with the data and the company is in a very bad spot. Something positive needs to come out next week to give the warrant holders time to implement the conversion. If nothing positive enough to trigger those warrant conversions is announced, it cannot be spun as something good. Even if they extend the 12/22 date, they are going to need to find money somewhere and I believe the company and you overestimate how easily that can be done. It is obviously getting harder with each smaller raise. Perhaps the most hopeful thing is that Paulson is now in this thing so deep they almost have to keep trying to hit their clients up for new cash as it would be a huge disaster for them if it hits the skids.
On the bankruptcy front, remember too that the CEO and some friends owns the only debt and stands to be able to claim the company's assets in the case of bankruptcy. And that debt comes due in January. I seriously doubt that is their intention but I would not ignore the possibility either.
If the BOD and management are very rich already and really don't need to be working for CYDY, now would be a very good time for them to step up and buy a significant amount of shares. That would send a very strong message that they remain confident of the outcome.
Efficacy is most likely not the issue. The PE results should be good if past testing is a good guide. The issue is the company's finances and their communications. We know the finances are very, very bad and have to be fixed for the company to continue. It looked like the company had a good plan with the warrant conversion but that presupposed good news was coming. And it still may be coming in some form but I was certainly under the impression that we would get an interim PE reading and we did not. Nor did we get any updates on the number of patients in the trial currently. Nor did the company tell us when they thought the PE data might be available. So, what looked like a promising strategy with hope for better communication from management has now reverted to the normal bunch of question marks. Money is needed right now, but it can't really be easily obtained without some form of good news to encourage people to step up and provide the needed capital. Can someone prove to me the company has or can acquire the money it needs to keep the lights on and to get to the likely good PE results in February, perhaps? I don't think so. If someone were to work the numbers, I think you would see the company is in a pretty dire financial situation as I write this. It has been spending a lot of money to keep a variety of trials going and it just does not have that kind of money right now. And, without those PE numbers, it is not going to be easy to find additional funds. That is just the stark reality right now.
I hope the glass half full case is the right one. It certainly could be. And, even if the glass half empty case is the correct one, they still have the possibility of pulling the proverbial rabbit out of the hat. But the company's track record is pretty dismal so it is hard to give much credence to the glass half full approach. I thought they really were turning things around when they came out with the warrant conversion deal as this made so much sense if good news was near. But then, we didn't get good news, which makes me question whether they were surprised by the interim PE results. Then to give no update on the number of patients recruited is disturbing and to also leave us hanging on when the combo is likely to be completed - well that is not a good sign at all. Nothing is preventing them from offering info on the number of patients currently in the trial or when they think it will finish. That they said nothing is a bit alarming.
Obviously, a company is never going to come out and say, "you know, we are almost out of cash and I am not sure how we are going to actually pull this off". But the company's actions tell you things are really very tight. Consultants paid in warrants, more frequent and smaller equity sales via Paulson, buying off disgruntled buyers of the stock with more stock. Make no mistake about it, cash is very short and there can be no way they are spending on anything other than the combo trial right now. The mono trial may still be listed as recruiting but that does not mean there is money available to actually recruit. It is not surprising there is no comment on that subject.
They may well pull this off but I hope they write a book about it if they do so we can know just exactly how hair-raising it was for management during this time. It would be an interesting read! I imagine they are breaking any number of disclosure rules right now but they really are forced to do so, If they pull this off, no one will really care about not disclosing things they were supposed to and if they do not pull it off, it won't matter because the company will be history.
Given the consultant took warrants, I am going to opt for the idea that they might just pull it off. But it is surely white-knuckle time in Vancouver, WA right about now. They have to be wondering where they are going to get the cash to see them through to January or February when the Combo PE data might become available. It is pretty clear to me from the smaller and smaller recent offerings the Paulson well is just about dry.
I cannot see how there would be any progress of note on the mono trial in recent months as the company simply does not have the money to keep enrolling patients. Everything is contingent on a good combo result and it now looks like that is not happening until well beyond 12/22. That tells me the data on on the interim analysis was not good enough to trigger the warrant holders to convert and the company's well laid out plan for getting this thing going in the right direction is now upside down. I expect the deadline to be extended for the warrant conversion unless a really surprising partnership deal is announced soon.
I was expecting to hear that the PE had been reached for the 40. Did the company ever make it clear that this would not be part of the release? At best they gave only a hint it had been reached since the trial is continuing. Or could it be a hint that they were close to reaching it and are now hoping the extra 10 patients will get them over the top? Most importantly, they gave no information regarding when the trial would be completed. So, unless some partnership deal is announced soon, who is going to convert their warrants? And where is the cash going to come from to complete the trial? Why would they set 12/22 as the date if they did not have good news before then. And will they need to give more shares to those that bought yesterday in another "make whole" adjustment?
When the news is not unequivocally good in biotech, it is safe to assume something is not right.
They are really taking this thing down to the wire. Clearly, they are scraping by for funds with the share sales getting smaller and more frequent and now paying consultants in warrants. It is definitely all or nothing with CYDY. If they are unable to produce something in terms of data or a partnership in the next two weeks, the company is bankrupt. They desperately need something that would convince the warrant holders to pull the trigger and provide enough capital until another raise is required. The fact that the consultant was willing to take payment in warrants may be a good sign, however, as that consultant may know more about the situation than we do and may know there is a good outcome likely. On the other hand, it could just be a situation where the consultant really had no options - either they take the warrants or they get nothing.
In any event, we are clearly going to find out something important very soon as the cash is not there to keep things moving forward. Either something very positive happens or the company shuts operations.
ANy idea of what that means exactly? Is there no DMC review scheduled right now or could it happen tomorrow? I assume this was an e-mail response so you got no color but that does not sound hopeful. How did you read it?
I have to say that I am quite surprised we don't have the interim data yet. That is obviously key to the warrant repricing/equity capital raising and one would have thought once the warrant scheme was introduced, the data would come out shortly thereafter. It is hard to see how the data would be bad but the delay following the introduction of the warrant repricing scheme can't be making anyone feel real comfortable right now. It looked like things were being handled very sensibly in the post-Nadar era and then nothing. But, that could change with a PR after the close. Hopefully, that is the case.
The most likely explanation is tax loss selling ahead of the year-end
Thought you might like to see the breakdown in sales according to strength. This is the number of prescriptions for each strength - you can see having the 5mg version might help.
Bloomberg Intelligence: Molecule Detail
Molecule DEXMETHYLPHENIDATE HCL
View TRX Count By Strength By Month
Strength 10/31/2017 09/30/2017 08/31/2017 07/31/2017 06/30/2017 05/31/2017 04
Total 368.16k 340.36k 347.85k 270.23k 290.80k 355.92k
10MG 109.19k 102.14k 105.30k 80.43k 86.17k 105.36k
5MG 68.97k 63.06k 64.85k 47.22k 50.93k 64.55k
20MG 57.93k 53.49k 54.77k 43.48k 46.86k 56.94k
15MG 55.70k 50.70k 51.09k 38.91k 42.52k 54.21k
30MG 30.95k 29.06k 29.65k 25.37k 27.19k 31.52k
25MG 19.00k 17.25k 17.22k 14.01k 14.95k 17.94k
40MG 13.81k 13.03k 13.40k 11.92k 12.60k 13.83k
2.5MG 8.67k 8.06k 7.93k 5.73k 6.24k 7.85k
35MG 3.95k 3.57k 3.64k 3.16k 3.35k 3.73k
Source: Symphony Health Solutions
I have said in the past, the time to buy is after the last big dilutive offering the company will need to do to get to cash flow breakeven. This is a big dilutive offering for sure. While this is still a wise step by management, it is probably not close to being the last big dilutive offering. On the other hand, they would not be doing this unless they had some good news coming out shortly where it would be foolish not to take the company up on its offer. So, perhaps the news will be good enough to mean the low for the stock will have been put in even when new dilutive offerings come in the future. $25 million is not enough money to get to the finish line and they are likely to not get more than $15-$20 million out of this offering (people are busy during the Christmas season and many of those warrant holders probably long ago stopped thinking about CYDY). Even so, if the news is good enough, the stock will reflect that and we may never see $0.50 again. So, if those warrant holders are smart, they will pay attention and take some time from their busy holiday schedule and get the paperwork in.
The big question before doing that is whether the data is going to be good enough. I have to believe it will be good enough based on history but why price the warrants at just $0.50 if that's the case. If the stock jumps to north of $1 on whatever news is to come, they could have set the price higher. Does $0.50 mean the news is not going to be all that great but just kinds great? Or does it reflect the desire to clean up a whole lot of warrants by making you a deal you can't refuse? We will know soon enough. By the way, apparently, there are still going to be 19 million warrants outstanding after this, even assuming everyone participates, so not all the warrants are being eliminated.
I probably clicked on something incorrectly - I will look at it again when I get a chance.
I got them the same way as in the past. Perhaps Symphony has revised them? Maybe Fabius can take a look and see if he gets the same results.