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Silvr and Bagel, I remember the market manipulators holding ANIP's PPS in the mid $20's when they let it go it ran up to mid $70s. I expect a similar run eventually, taking us to between $150 and $180, a price where they may be willing to retail investors back in the game.
ANIP share price is treated better than many pharma companies but worse than others and the ALIM deal has yet to close. With such a low share total PPS can be moved up and down rather easily. One problem is that it is still lightly covered. A lot of outdated investment information on ANIP is out there with no reference to their focus on rare disease. With only 33.33 million shares authorized, I believe they don't want heavy coverage, yet. Lack of liquidity could force them to issue shares prematurely. ANIP's MO is to under promise and overdeliver. I don't expect this to change. Once profits exceed what they need for business development, one way to counter the market manipulation is by returning shareholder value in the form of a dividend. It has no bearing on share price and takes the ball out of the hands of market manipulators. Though ANIP's Annual report indicates they do not intend to issue dividends for the foreseeable future. This is especially true, if they intend to expand globally.
ANIP has proven prudent in its acquisitions. Gilead paid 6.6 times peak sales for Cyma Bay and Abbvie paid 5 times peak sales for ImmunoGen. In fairness both companies have longer IP protection. In S&P 's analysis they believe peak sales of $200 million for ALIM's Iluvien an Yutiq, though a number of analyst believe it to be higher. S&P believe that they unlikely to face generic competition due to cost of trials and complexities in developing and manufacturing these drugs, which is almost as good as IP protection. The $381 million deal at 1.9 times peak sales seem like a bargain. Additionally, S&P upgraded ANIP to BB following the deal. This should reduce the cost of borrowing somewhat.
S&P Global ANIP/ALIM deal
The Corti and Novitium deals show that ANIP is good at generating value through their business development, I am certain the ALIM deal will be just as good for ANIP.
As always, we are the mercy of the market manipulators, for the time being.
JMHO
Thanks BB.
They launched it today as well. U.S. annual sales for Naproxen Delayed-Release Tablets total approximately $36.7 million, based on April 2024 moving annual total (MAT) IQVIA data.
PR from ANIP sight
I believe so, Silvr.
I checked out the authorized shares for US Pharmas with a market cap exceeding $1 billion.
ANIP had the lowest at 33.33 million shares followed by :
LGND had 60 million shares
PTGX had 90 million shares
The rest had authorized 100 million shares or more.
As it stands ANIP will not be splitting their stock as it gets more expensive.
It is unlikely that they will use equity in any future deal unless the share price climbs considerably.
Another reverse split could be used down the road to free shares for a deal. This would make ANIP shares even pricier and out of reach for most retail investors.
If ALIM deal generates returns as expected and the CGON and Libigel royalties kick in, I expect they will be flush with cash and will not require much in the way of equity financing to fund growth.
Personnally, I hope the goal is not to sell ANIP, but to create a company that eventually pays high dividends.
Just noticed that when Biosante led by Simes did their reverse split in June of 2012. They took down the authorized shares from 200 million to 33.33 million, as well. Very odd for a company trying to survive. This is very small for the pharma industry. Often the reverse split only applies to the outstanding shares. When the reverse split on 2013 occurred after the merger with ANI, only the outstanding shares were affected. As of Q1 release over 64% of the authorized shares have been issued.
Even though ANIP is an acquisition company, it looks like the merger between ANIP and Biosante was forged with the intent of it being sold and by keeping a low share volume, it is easier to maintain a controlling interest.
Any increase in authorized shares requires shareholder approval. No one will authorize this unless there a deal on the table that is compelling to investors.
If Anip is not being bought out within the next 3 to 5 years, I see ANIP using cash to buy back shares to be used for larger deals in the future.
JMHO
How Ampersand fits in is a good question. Their portfolio is broad and many could help ANIP at some point.
For anyone concerned about Samy selling shares for Esjay Pharma LLC, Esjay Phrama LLC operates out of Novitiums location in East New Jersey. NOVITIUM LABS PRIVATE LIMITED had two directors listed Samy and Ayyavu Rajavel. Rajavel is also a director for Esjay Pharma Private Ltd headquartered in India. Esjay Pharma Private Ltd. manufactures injectable.
Esjay Pharma Private Ltd
Esjay Pharma Private Ltd was incorporated September 30, 2022 and Samy (Esjay) started selling shares June 20, 2023.
Esjay Pharma Pvt Ltd Manufacturing
I believe that SAMY is setting up Injectable manufacturing capabilities at the Novitium location for Corti, Iluvien and Yutiq and future products.
Thanks North. Never ceases to amaze me at how many ways exist to manipulate the markets.
If I am reading this correctly there was bit of a tell in the Alimera presentation that ANIP existing pipeline is on track for a significant increase in guidance.
I agree regarding institution manipulation. Hopefully, you are right regarding the Chevron decision.
Upon looking at pharma companies trading higher than ANIP only six are currently profitable that will be making more than the $20 EPS ANIP will be generating by 2031. This assumed analyst projections for Alimera are correct and ANIP wins the CGON royalty litigation and Goldman Sach is correct about the $2.5 billion in sales.
There a few other pharmaceutical companies estimated to have greater than $20 EPS by 2031, but they will continue to lose money and could require more dilution as they work towards NDA submission.
The one with the lowest EPS estimate above $20 by 2031 for a currently profitable company is Biogen (BIIB) with an EPS estimate of $24.78 for 2031 and an EPS estimate of $15.62 for 2024. BIIB currently trades at $231.82. I figure as more analyst cover ANIP and the company keeps meeting or exceeding estimates ANIP will close the gap in PPS substantially.
Lord knows where it will go if Libigel kicks in.
Thanks Silvr, your right, according to Russell the newly reconstituted indexes will take effect after the market close on 28 June 2024. it will be interesting when PPS breaks through resistance.
Looking at Q1 Corti vs Acthar sales. The combined sales grew by over $41.4 million over Q1 2023 with ANIP capturing approx. 50% of the revenue growth. Seeing that Corti sells for approximately $10,000 less. ANIP is obviously capturing more than 50% of the new prescriptions. This bodes well for ANIP as Nikhil believes the ACTH therapy market is headed back to over $1.2 billion.
Nasdaq's chart shows that 879,898 shares were traded at close and 136,961 shares after hours. Obviously the price was drawn down this week to execute this accumulation. Back to climbing next week.
Easka, the $16.59 EPS estimate is based on only one analyst for each company. That being said in 2028 three analyst estimated that ANIP's EPS would be $7.33 with a high of $8.51 and a low of $6.11. In 2029 the sole estimate is for $6.87. Seems to me that the only analyst estimating beyond 2028 was the low ball estimate. In 2027 the low estimate was approx. 35% lower than the average of the others and 30% lower than the average of the others in 2028.
Once other analyst chime in long-term ANIP could be receiving EPS average EPS estimates of approx. $20 for 2031 assuming no further dilution other than what is already factored in current estimates for both companies.
Note: This does EPS increases from any of the following catalysts.
ANIP announced record new starts in both patients and prescribers Cortrophin Gel sales in April and May, therefore I expect an increase in guidance for 2024 in August when earnings are released and un upward revision in EPS estimates.
Movement of female testosterone, by any company that might be utilizing the Libigel data.
Part of the Novitium deal included Profit-based milestone payments for three 505(b)(2) NDAs which ANIP expect to start paying in 2025. This could mean a launch as early as Q4 of 2024. Novitium has secured three patents extending to 2040 and beyond, so it may be related the following: Stable Oral Liquid Composition Of Terazosin, Hydrochlorothiazide Compositions and a tablet for oral suspension comprising Carglumic Acid. They also have a strong connection to Nuray Chemicals through Samy Shanmugam which has a number of patents, most interesting is the one regrading Tafamidis (Pfizer's Vyndaquel family of drugs) where Samy is listed as the lead inventor.
EPS estimates will be increased once of each of the above drugs are provided.
The CGON royalties litigation in ANIP's favor would pump EPS estimates as well.
ANIP also intends global expansion by using Alimera's footprint as a starting point.
JMHO.
I imagine as the deal is finalized it will be more difficult for retail investors to pick up shares.
Opened in error
HC Wainwright raised Price Target for ANIP to $94.
PT $94
I agree Silvr, many catalysts on the way. ANIP's PPS had lower day end closes from June 7th to the day before the announcement of the acquisition. While Alimera went from 98,200 shares traded on June 10th to 1,675,800 shares traded June 11th. Sure looks like word of the acquisition got out prior to the announcement.
Congrats to Nikhil. I believe it was for the New Jersey area hopefully he gets their national award next year.
It looks like the Alimera deal does not involve the meetings ANIP management apparently had with Truist June 13 - 16.
ANIP may just be getting started.
Easka, based on analyst estimates when combined ANIP's current EPS estimates for 2031 should be raised from $7.31 to 16.59 (less any further dilution).
It should add the following to ANIP's EPS (less any dilution).
2025 =$0.70
2026 = $1.18
2027 = $2.83
2028 = $4.37
2029 = $5.69
2030 = $7.34
2031 = $9.28
Easka for 2028 estimates the analysts were Yi Chen of H.C. Wainrright & Co., Naz Raham of Maxim Group and James Malloy of Alliance Global
Stock Analysis- ANIP
For 2031 i got it from Seeking Alpha - the analyst is not provided.
Seeking Alpha
Analyst predicted Alimera on its own would generate $234 million in revenue by 2028 and $384 million in revenue for by 2031. Looks like a good pick by ANIP.
ANIP starts to expand sales globally with acquisition of Alimera Sciences. It is good for the reps selling Corti to ophthalmologist.
I noticed that since the May earnings there were three trading session with over 300,000 shares traded. The first traded as high as $70 and was dragged down to as low as $60.36 before starting its climb back up $69.09 before the next >300,000 share trading session. We are now on our 10 consecutive day of lower closings with volume on Friday was above 300,000 again. Meanwhile institutions know that ANIP set new record patient starts for both April and May. Certainly looks like controlled accumulation.
When they are done accumulating we should see it climb back to $70ish range and blow by the $81.60 target price (maybe closer to $87 for the only target price that was issued after May's Corti sales information.
JMHO
Just my opinion.
174ahc, I am not worried as the majority of sales are by Samy for Esjay Pharma LLC followed by Gassert for Chali Properties as part of trading plans filed in 2023. Esjay is a pharma company operating out of Novitium plant at 70 Lake Drive East New Jersey. I believe that Esjay's use of the money will eventually benefit Esjay and ANIP. The only employee selling any sizeable portion of shares is James Marken, could be for a number of reasons. No negative news has come out. The only negative so far is that ANI has yet to pull a trigger on the rare disease deal. ESP has been fully diluted by the shares issued Q2 of 2023 to fund the deal without any revenue to offset the increase in outstanding shares I am more interested in their meeting with Truist. It may be related to the acquisition. Once a deal is announced which is suppose to be accretive to share holder value, we should see a rise in EPS estimates, especially long-term as they are looking for asset with patent protection and long-term growth. This should course correct ANIP's share price.
According to the The Fly, ANIP Management had meetings with Truist June 13-16. LikleIy related to Rare Disease expansion, female testosterone or both.
Truist Meetings
None that matter. I haven't seen any either. Regardless I am not worried, especially when taking a long-term view. I was looking at profitable North American Based Pharma and Biotechs and I only found 5 where analyst estimated consistent YoY growth in revenue for the next 10 years. ANIP was one of them. The others include Vertex, Ligand, and two other that I am looking further into. Might be the basis for another article.
JMHO
Jp2011, I am not too familiar with Options trading as well. However, I am not concerned. Just checked Seeking Alpha they have no open interest for any Puts price below $60. While Yahoo has Open Interest for 5 Puts (1 Put = a 100 share block) priced below $60.
Very low volume. I think as you said it looks like a hedge fund driving price down to accumulate more shares.
JMHO
I am pretty Jeff was at least one of the board members identifying GERN as a potentially good investment. There may have been others, but I can't recall who it was. .
Congrats on you GERN investment, BB.
Silvr, though I stated that ANIP should be trading north of $81.69. I found by discounting 30 % per year to peak sales, a method Leerink Swan used for Libigel in 2011, ANIP's PPS today should be above $90. However I thought using the GCON valuation as a base to establish a fair price today was more objective.
BB this is the summary of the article.
- ANIP's potential royalty revenue from two upcoming drug applications could generate $415 million annually, not reflected in the current share price.
- ANI Pharmaceuticals' legal action against CG Oncology could result in royalties for Cretostimogene, potentially adding $125 million per year.
- The Company's female testosterone drug could generate royalties of $290 million per year, with potential for additional indications and international sales.
If all falls into place Royalties could add $16.89 to ANIP EPS (less dilution) by 2031. Analyst currently estimate EPS for 2031 at $7.31.
Here is my latest article on ANIP.
ANI Pharmaceuticals Is Undervalued, As Royalty Potential Is Overlooked
CORRECTION: The following are NOT considered good cause for an extension to delay submitting results. I imagine the same goes for certification.
It is obvious that they make no mention of an extension request to delay, so the submission was definitely for certification.
The following are considered good cause for an extension to delay submitting results. I imagine the same goes for certification.
• Awaiting journal publication. A study must report clinical trial results information even if the data have not yet been published.
• Pending U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) or other regulatory or health agency review. A study must report clinical trial results information even if the data are under FDA or other regulatory or health agency review, consistent with any certification of delay submission, as applicable.
• Ongoing data analysis without sufficient explanation. All studies are expected to be able to complete data analysis within one year of the Primary Completion Date unless there are unexpected circumstances that prevent the timely completion of the analysis. Analysis that is not yet complete, without further explanation, is not adequate justification for “good cause.”
They have been analyzing the data for almost 3 years. I believe it is ready to go.
I also believe there is an event pending that will explain all the secrecy and delays.
JMHO
Silvr, FYI, they changed some of the information from the Libigel trial results page.
It now reads
Listened to the Jeffries Presentation. Good to see that Corti is continuing to roll. May set a record high for new patient starts and this is on top April's new high of patient starts.
Should make for a nice in crease in guidance in August.
Thanks auh2oman. I like that
I find it interesting that in 2016 the FDA funded the following in 2016.
That is interesting. Thanks Silvr.