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LTS should be halted as well...
I tried posting my thoughts on DIS.
As I completed that and posted it, all hell broke loose. And when the smoke cleared there were no message remnants at all as my post just seemed to disappear into j-space because iHub has no provisions to post into the shadow of what was once your message. All I saw was a raised flag with a message announcing that I can’t post to a message that doesn’t exist. Okay, I accept that, but the least they could do would be to preserve my message in the editor box. DIS at that time (which I think was late morning) was still all green but had a fairly large upper shadow, meaning it was very reluctant to go any higher. I anticipated the whole pattern to go flat going into earnings -- i.e. consolidate in some sort of flag or pennant. My plan if it should produce a healthy consolidation, which I suspect it will, is to buy Calls either prior or after breakout depending on how it looks. I guess a true pattern trader would wait till after it breaks out, but I am impressed with its orderly and linear climb through a very dense 8-point range of resistance during a much more hesitant market as depicted by $SPX.
Disney hasn’t broken through resistance. It could tomorrow, but my thoughts were that I don’t think it will. It’s earnings are due Nov 5 (a couple weeks away) and normally that nearness is sufficient to cause a stock to hesitate. I expected that early this morning, and I still do. Just have to wait and see. If it does, then it forms a flag or pennant pattern.
My impression is that price will continue to rise, and the rate will depend on earnings. My inclination would be to buy Nov 27, $110 Calls with no spread. That expiration would be 22 calendar days after earnings release. Depending on earnings, that’s sufficient for another 10-point rise which could happen as quickly as the last 10 points. Sometime during that time might be a good time to sell Nov $120 Calls (making it a belated spread), and use some of those proceeds to buy farther out Calls if it appears it could have legs, or to buy some Puts if it appears that it could fall back a little after having gone up 20% over a relatively short period.
Or, sometimes I think I don’t have a clue.
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Dr. Frost's brilliance
Dr. Frost was chairman at Mt. Sinai Medical Center in Florida and a consultant at Miles Laboratories when he met the manager, Michael Jaharis. They learned of a pharmaceutical company that had just lost $700,000 and couldn't afford to bring out a new drug.
Dr. Frost figured they could customize a new delivery system to effectively speed past the typical decade-plus drug commercialization route involving tens of millions of dollars. He invested $50,000 in the company, Key Pharmaceuticals, and found a new way of delivering an existing drug into the body.
Next, Dr. Frost and Mr. Jaharis took on a crotchety asthma medication. Theophylline was a little-used older drug, ineffective in small doses but toxic in large doses. So, Key researchers devised a way to incorporate the drug into a 12-hour time-release pill.
Blessed with good luck and good leadership, Key continued its unique pathway. The company didn't have the roughly $30,000 needed to test the pill but The University of Florida agreed to test it and publish the results. Rather than spending a lot of money on marketing, Key offered allergists pill samples backed by scientific data and a calculator to figure accurate dosage.
With successful drugs marketed, agreements with larger pharmaceutical companies followed. The realization hit the partners in 1986: They had, indeed, found the key to building a $50,000 straggler into a behemoth. They sold Key Pharmaceuticals to Schering-Plough for $800 million.
In 1987, Dr. Frost jiggled the key to open up the potential of generic products company Ivax. The company became the world's largest maker of low-priced copies of brand drugs whose patents had expired. The business was tough and disheartening at times - like the time a lucrative Norwegian merger fell apart in 1995. But Dr. Frost shoved away that disappointment.
He sold the business in 2005 to Teva Pharmaceutical Industries for a cool $7.6 billion.
The doctor from Miami Beach, Fla. continued his magic as he began building Opko Health in 2007. Today, the pharmaceutical and diagnostic company boasts a $4 billion market cap and a respected chief executive.
"Every company we've built has always had skeptics," he said. "And they have always paid the price in the end."
Dr. Frost indicated OPK is targeting multiple medical markets worth about $30 billion. We wouldn't be surprised if, at some point, Dr. Frost's company becomes an acquisition target of a large pharmaceutical company searching for promising drugs to replace its drugs with expiring patents.
