Long Term Timers

[DoctorBS]

Can we no longer post here?

Moonshoot
DARBES

[TREND1]

I have combined this board into #board-1468
Why?
So I will only have one active board on IHUB.

Larry Dudash

[TREND1]

Today 5/20/03 had a major sell signal:
(1)$BPCOMPQ above 45
(2)Turn down today.
(3)Short at open on 5/21/03
(4)Major = weeks to months.

[TREND1]

Wilshire 5000(Esignal $TMW) has exceeded the Dec 2002 high.

[TREND1]

Sorry
Have appointment and will not be
able to update this board until evening.

[TREND1]

LDkeynote: 5/8/03
$BPCOMPQ = 55.97 +.43
Therefore no signal.

[bbgold]

Will do Larry
You are looking for a move of at least 1 month, 1-3 months or longer? I am just used to looking at 1-3 days. Potential for further short term correction here but would need confirmation for a longer term trade. Might only be testing longer term Support for another Up move. Can I use NDX and SPX charts for short term and QQQ and SPY for longer term? Or would you prefer I just stick to Longer term charts with the QQQ and SPY which should work better for the longer term signals? :^)

[TREND1]

paper trade is OK
wait until you get buy,sell,short, or cover
post a name like Brinker, $BPCOMPQ, etc
post start of trade.

[bbgold]

Just offering an opinion
I rarely trade stocks on a long term basis. I could offer a paper trade using this system though if you would like to consider it? Just making a suggestion for something to Watch as a useful tool when making a trading decision.
I hope that it will Help :^)

[bbgold]

Ok, will use QQQ or SPY
Can be applied to most any chart or timeframe though. Most market followers or 'trading teachers' that I have followed in the past all put a strong emphasis on whether the SMAs are Support or Resistance and using the tests of them as triggers to enter a trade Long when uptrending and testing the Support or entering a trade Short when downtrending and testing them as Resistance. When the SMAs are being tested you need to be careful of them changing from Support to Resistance or Resistance to Support though as that could signal a change of trend. Using a 6 month chart as a Longer term indicator might have had you Long the SPY since mid March? Exiting only on the piercings of the Upper Bollinger bands when the Williams %R was topped and re-entering when the SMA Support was tested and held Support? Again, I rarely look at longer term trades :^)

[TREND1]

bbgold
(1)I am Confused?
(2)Do you want to set up a trade in the Title page of this board?
(3)Or are you just explaining a system ?

[bbgold]

SMA analysis can be used for short or long term IMO
It just depends on which timeframe chart you are looking at as to whether you use them as a Long term or Short term trades. I often use the Intraday signals from the MKTSS board for Intraday trades. The same principles can be applied to longer term timeframes though for longer term trades. If only using the SMAs as Support or Resistance you might not catch the Tops or the Bottoms but should be able to capture a Lot of the Trend IMO. Could use other indicators to help determine the tops and bottoms or Safe exit points like the breakout of breakdowns of the Bollinger Bands, MACD crossings or Williams %R keeping in mind whether the SMAs Support or Resistance has been violated.
JMHO though :^)

[TREND1]

bbgold
Let's start posting your "study" using either QQQ or SPY.
OK ?

[bbgold]

Simple Market Analysis
If the Markets, any of them, are trading Above their SMAs and they are Inclining and holding Support at the SMAs then be long term Bullish. If the Markets are trading Below their SMAS and they are Declining and offering Resistance then be long term Bearish. Most all of the SMAs can be used for whichever timeframe chart you are looking at, Intraday, 5 day, monthly, yearly or setting 1 minute, 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute, hourly, etc for either short term or long term trades. JMHO though :^)

[TREND1]

bbgold
Are your signals for major moves like (weeks to months) ?
That is what this board is about.IMHO.

[bbgold]

Same SMA rule applies to QQQ
If the QQQ loses support at the SMAs and they turn Negative and offering Resistance then I will become Bearish. Until then I would only be looking for short term corrections to retest Support at the SMAs. Would that classify as a Long Term timer even if most of the moves have not lasted more than a month or two in the past? :^)

[TREND1]

bbgold
(1)QQQ will be used.
(2)Based on BPCOMPQ
(3)DIA and SPY may be doing some thing else.IMHO.

[bbgold]

Danger Will Robinson! Danger! :^)
Watching for a Breakdown of the Support and if it will turn into Resistance. First breakdown level 8500, then 8400 and 8300. Will not be long term Bearish until the SMAs turn negative and are acting as resistance though

[TREND1]

LDkeynote: WARNING ! WARNING ! WARNING !
Good chance of a major sell signal today.
If, so the sell will be at next day's open.

Let's take a look at things:
(1)$BPCOMPQ is way over 45, so any turn will generate the sell signal.
(2) The following Indexes traded above the Dec 2002 high:
$COMPQ
$NDX
QQQ
(3) The following Indexes have NOT traded above the Dec 2002 high:
$NYA
$TMW (Wilshire 5000 on Esignal)
$INDU
$SPX
$SOX
SMH

Translation:
Market has gone right up to the cutting edge.IMHO.

[TREND1]

LDKeynote: Email sent when any changes take place:
Changes do not happen very often so
Join Above:

[TREND1]

LDkeynote: on $BPCOMPQ:
Since today opened with a down gap and probabilities are
95.5% that the close will be down today, maybe, just maybe
$BPCOMPQ will turn down today?

[TREND1]

test of using SI to keep Bob Brinker Portfolio Updated:

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/portfolio/detail.gsp?pid=9330901

[TREND1]

Update 5/2/03

 
 Num	Timer	Sym	Action	date	P	Action	Date	P	%gain 
 1	Brinker	QQQ	Long	3/11/03	23.80	Open	5/3/03	28.28	18.82 
 2	Brinker	SPY	Long	3/11/03	80.52	Open	5/3/03	93.21	15.76 
 3	BPCOMPQ	QQQ	not yet						 
 

[TREND1]

WLD
see #BOARD-1672

[WinLoseOrDraw]

OK. eom.

[TREND1]

say OK
and I'll create board with
"The Noise Is The Signal" title

[WinLoseOrDraw]

you don't like it? -g- ok, how about "Upstairs at Sonny's"?

[TREND1]

Name you want for your new board
is "The Noise Is The Signal" ???

[WinLoseOrDraw]

The Noise Is The Signal.

-g-

[TREND1]

WLD
So what "name" do you want for your new board,
so you can record those test buys and sells
in real time ?

WLD Trades ?

[WinLoseOrDraw]

i sure can! eom.

[TREND1]

Were you able to enter INBOX ?

[WinLoseOrDraw]

well if i'm supposed to assist, i'd better get my backside in motion and come up with a "long term timers" kind of strategy. the ones that have worked so well as recently as the end of last year haven't been giving signals lately.

$ndx not since october, $indu and $spx not since feb.

[TREND1]

Long Term Timers updated:
see title of board

[TREND1]

I wrote
Today's close in SMH (April 30, 2003) will be test of
"Go away in May and come back in November"
It will end on the last trading day of October 2003.

Later....
After reading many posts about the above,
decided it doesn't work. So will not use it.

[hk2]

I understand.

I have not followed them closely (day job)

[TREND1]

LisaAu has been a very good short term trader.
Have you followed LisaAu's trades ????
I want to learn LisaAu's system.

[hk2]

Curious. In the thread header, folks are invited to post their LT trade, and when they do, you set them up with their own thread.


BTW, how long to be considered LT?

Thanks

[TREND1]

LisaAu
You now have your own board
see #board-1669

(1)Click manage
(2)Click INBOX
(3)insert words telling about your methods of trading.
(4)Click update INBOX
(5)You can not hurt any thing, so give it a try.

[LisaAu]

Here's my paper basket:

I'm selling short at the close today the following four positions, a thousand shares each. I reserve the right to cover them anytime in October 2003, but would be especially happy if the spirits told me to cover them on Halloween.

SMH: 26.39
INTC: 18.37
AMAT: 14.62
TXN: 18.49

[TREND1]

Today's close in SMH (April 30, 2003) will be test of
"Go away in May and come back in November"
It will end on the last trading day of October 2003.

[brainlessone]

so far brinker is right

[WinLoseOrDraw]

money markets aren't yielding squat, true, but with a bond fund you are taking on huge amounts of risk. especially today!

[LisaAu]

Yes, bonds don't pay that well today, but neither do Money Market Funds.

Some might go to USPIX.

But safety needs to be a primary concern.

[TREND1]

You wrote
Money Market Fund or, say, move to a bond fund?


answer:
(1)bond fund? Are you making a joke?(g)
Bonds with interest rates at 40 year low and Gov spending up ?
(2)Money Market. Or in my case Past company provides a fund
which pays good interest rate.
(3)Every IRA is different.IMHO.
(4)Some go into a Short fund, but I do not.
(5)My IRA money will take me "from here to grave".
So I treat it much different then trading account.

[wahz]

rotfl!. You are just too funny!

[TREND1]

It sure doesn't make my cell phone computer beep(g)

[wahz]

looking to sell and go short at 27.40+...is this as good as an email;>)?

[LisaAu]

Larry,

On the Short side of $BPCOMPQ would you stay in a Money Market Fund or, say, move to a bond fund?

[TREND1]

$BPCOMPQ is one of the best signals I ever back tested.
Use real IRA money on the Long side of the signal.