CARRIER ACCESS (CACS)

[Kirk]

Insider Buying Reported by Yahoo!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=CACS

This is a good sign since they were sellers in the past at $12.80

 
 30-Nov-05	KOENIG, ROGER L. 
 Chairman	900	Direct	Purchase at $4.7433 per share.	$4,268 
  
 30-Nov-05	PIERCE, NANCY 
 Director	900	Indirect	Purchase at $4.7433 per share.	$4,268 
  
 29-Nov-05	KOENIG, ROGER L. 
 Chairman	5,800	Direct	Purchase at $4.7186 per share.	$27,367 
  
 29-Nov-05	PIERCE, NANCY 
 Director	5,800	Indirect	Purchase at $4.7186 per share.	$27,367 
  
 28-Nov-05	KOENIG, ROGER L. 
 Chairman	10,000	Direct	Purchase at $4.7146 per share.	$47,146 
  
 28-Nov-05	PIERCE, NANCY 
 Director	10,000	Indirect	Purchase at $4.7146 per share.	$47,146 
  
  
 1-Jul-04	PIERCE, NANCY 
 Officer	30,000	Indirect	Automatic Sale at $12.8008 per share.	$384,024 
  
 1-Jul-04	KELD LLC 
 Beneficial Owner (10% or more)	30,000	Direct	Automatic Sale at $12.8008 per share.	$384,024 
  
 1-Jul-04	KOENIG, ROGER L. 
 Chairman	30,000	Indirect	Automatic Sale at $12.8008 per share.	$384,024 
 

[Kirk]

I still have shares, but I've been trading the ups and downs and have a pretty low cost basis so I'm up considerably even after this big decline. The specific buy and sell points are in my newsletter but overall I remain optimistic for the long term.

How about you?

[Heavenly]

Kirk,

What is your outlook on Carrier Access?

Buy, Hold, or Sell?

Thanks.

H

[Kirk]

Bad News. Got the stock hammered yesterday. It looks like they are quibbling about what quarter some revenue should officially be booked. Since it doesn't effect the viability, or lack of, for this company, it could be a short lived decline. Then again, it could be the first cockroach.

Press Release Source: Carrier Access

Carrier Access Delays Filing Amendment to Form 10-K for the Period Ended December 31, 2004
Monday May 2, 8:49 pm ET

BOULDER, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 2, 2005--Carrier Access Corporation (Nasdaq:CACS - News), a manufacturer of broadband communications equipment, today announced that the filing of a required amendment to its previously filed Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2004 will be delayed beyond the May 2, 2005 extended filing date.

As a result of information presented to its auditors, KPMG LLP, in connection with the Company's 404-review process, Carrier Access is performing additional detailed review of certain contracts to confirm language regarding passage of title from specific customer transactions in situations where the order documentation from such customers is not consistent. The issue under examination relates to the passage of title and proper timing of revenue recognition between calendar quarters in 2003 and 2004.

When the Company filed its 2004 Form 10-K Report on March 22, 2005, it utilized an order of the Securities and Exchange Commission permitting a 45-day extension of time within which to include its annual management report and the related attestation report of the Company's independent auditors.

The Company has made substantial progress towards the completion of its assessment of the effectiveness of its internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2004. However, the Company believes it is necessary to take additional time to review this issue to ensure that the timing of the revenue received in these specific situations has been recorded in the correct period, and both the Company and the auditors require additional time to complete the documentation and related audit procedures in connection with the Company's management report on the effectiveness of the Company's internal control over financial reporting and the related attestation report of the Company's independent auditors under Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.

Management has determined that a control deficiency exists because its internal control procedures did not require a review to determine whether there are contradictory contractual provisions in existing customer arrangements that could bear on the appropriate timing of revenue recognition, and that this control deficiency constitutes a material weakness as of December 31, 2004. As previously disclosed in its Form 10-K filed March 22, 2005, management previously disclosed that a material weakness existed as of December 31, 2004 with respect to following of control procedures regarding the Statement of Cash Flows.

As a result of the Company's delay in filing its required amendment on Form 10-K/A for 2004, Carrier Access expects to receive notification from Nasdaq that it is not in compliance with the filing requirements for continued listing on Nasdaq and that its securities could be subject to delisting from the Nasdaq National Market. In addition, Carrier Access anticipates that Nasdaq may change the Company's trading symbol from "CACS" to "CACSE."

About Carrier Access Corporation

Carrier Access (Nasdaq:CACS - News) provides consolidated access technology designed to streamline the communication network operations of service providers, enterprises and government agencies. Carrier Access products enable customers to consolidate and upgrade access capacity, and implement converged IP services while lowering costs and accelerating service revenue. Carrier Access' technologies help our customers do more with less. For more information, visit www.carrieraccess.com.

 
 Contact: 
  
      Carrier Access 
      Audra Bailey, 303-218-5455 
      [e-mail] 
 

Source: Carrier Access

[dvdmogul]

Yep, nice overhead gap still magnetic too.

[Kirk]

Intersting chart with the 50 and 200 DMAs coming together.

[Kirk]

Carrier Access Updates Guidance for Third Fiscal Quarter of 2004
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040908/85235_1.html
Wednesday September 8, 6:30 am ET



BOULDER, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 8, 2004--Carrier Access Corporation (NASDAQ: CACS - News), a leading provider of broadband communications technologies, today announced after discussions with several wireless service providers and OEM customers, and due to industry consolidation in the wireless industry, it expects revenues for the third fiscal quarter of 2004 to decline on a sequential basis by approximately 15 to 20 percent from the $30.5 million recorded in the second fiscal quarter of 2004.

Carrier Access believes discussions with its customers have resulted in increased visibility and anticipates that revenues for the fourth quarter 2004 will increase slightly quarter over quarter from revenues anticipated to be reported in the third quarter. Carrier Access continues to see increased demand for its business service delivery, including Voice-over-IP (VoIP) products and believes the decrease in sales to wireless customers is a short-term event and due principally to the consolidation in the wireless mobility market in North America.

"Consolidation among wireless service providers has resulted in what we believe is a short-term spending decline as wireless service providers constrain their capital to rationalize their networks. This is clearly affecting our top line. Although quarterly revenues are anticipated to decline from those reported in the second quarter of 2004, we believe we are well positioned to increase revenues in 2005 in the wireless market," said Roger Koenig, president, CEO and chairman, Carrier Access.

"We remain focused on introducing new products for our Broadband Business Access and Wireless customers and are encouraged by customer engagements and continued trials. We continue to believe we are focused on the highest growth markets and believe we are well positioned to profitably grow our business," Koenig said.

Carrier Access will be holding a conference call on October 19 to discuss its third quarter 2004 results in more detail.

About Carrier Access Corporation

Carrier Access (NASDAQ: CACS - News) provides consolidated access technology designed to streamline the communication network operations of service providers, enterprises and government agencies. Carrier Access products enable customers to consolidate and upgrade access capacity, and implement converged IP services while lowering costs and accelerating service revenue. Carrier Access' technologies help our customers do more with less. For more information, visit www.carrieraccess.com.

Forward-Looking Statement Caution

This press release contains forward-looking statements about our anticipated 2004 third and fourth quarter operating results and our prospects for growth in 2005, as well as our growth prospects in wireless and Voice over IP. We caution that our growth prospects and our actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors including, but not limited to, consolidation among our customer base, continuing uncertainty regarding general economic conditions, changes in capital spending by carriers and telecommunications companies, market acceptance of our products, problems with or at our customers, distributors, OEM's and/or suppliers, growth rates within our industry, the financial stability of our customers, the introduction of new competition and technologies, and other risks and uncertainties including those factors discussed in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2003, and other documents periodically filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

Contact: 
  
      Carrier Access 
      Michelle Chase, 303-218-5562 
      [e-mail] 
  
 

Source: Carrier Access

[Kirk]

Carrier Access Presenting at Kaufman Bros. 7th Annual CMT Conference, Sept. 8, 2004

The dump may be complete so now they can start telling their story again with the secondary shares shaken out of weak hands... (somehow some fell into my hands... knock on wood, but I have gains on some of them already too. )


Carrier Access Presenting at Kaufman Bros. 7th Annual CMT Conference, Sept. 8, 2004

BOULDER, COLORADO - August 31, 2004 -

What:
Carrier Access will present at the Kaufman Bros.’ 7th Annual Communications, Media & Technology Conference. Company executives will provide attendees with an overview of the company and its three target markets within the broadband access industry: wireless, IP business services and fiber access.

Who:
Carrier Access (NASDAQ: CACS), a leading provider of broadband access communications technologies
Presenters: Roger Koenig, president, CEO and chairman of the board;
Tim Anderson, CFO

When:
Wednesday, Sept. 8, 2004, at 2:25 p.m. EDT / 12:25 p.m. MDT

Where:
The W New York Hotel, 541 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY
About Carrier Access Corporation

Carrier Access (NASDAQ: CACS) provides next-generation wireline and wireless broadband access technologies that optimize communications services for service providers, enterprises and government agencies. Carrier Access products are designed to enable customers to consolidate and upgrade access capacity, and implement converged IP services while lowering costs and accelerating service revenue. For more information, visit www.carrieraccess.com.

[Kirk]

More info on CACS that I posted elsewhere on iHub.

We have an iHub board for CACS here http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1460 that I started when CACS was selling for under 50¢ in late 2002 after the bear market bottomed in October 2002. (CACS is currently at $6.77)

The two flaws you see with CACS are mistakes in your data. Hopefully I can clear things up for you.

#1. "Management owns over 10M of the 33.7M shares outstanding."

See
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=CACS and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CACS

Roger Koenig is the founder and CEO. IT shows he owns 10.2M shares.

Nancy Pierce is his wife and an officer in the company. It shows she owns 12M shares. I believe this counts the overlap of the shares she holds jointly with Roger and is shown in KELD LLC.

Thus I believe together they hold 12M of the 33.7M shares outstanding which is 36%

They owned over 50% of the shares until they had a 6M share secondary at $12.25 earlier this year to raise roughly $72M in cash after expenses and they sold some of their holdings above the offering price as shown here http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=CACS

With 36% of the shares in the hands of the two that run the company, I think we are safe from insiders using options to enrich insiders at the expense of shareholders. I believe this is a large reason there has been management turnover; they run a tight ship when it comes to the balance sheet.

#2. "It is almost- or nearing a Penny Stock value.
It is in risk of bankruptcy."

CACS finished 2002 at 38¢ a share. I added significantly to my IRA and ROTH at that time since they had 93¢ a share of cash on the balance sheet and a book value of several dollars. I also added shares to my newsletter portfolio. Their customers were going bankrupt and they were cutting expenses as fast as they could to preserve stockholder equity. They did a good job.

Today CACS has about $3.60 a share of cash on the books with no debt.
They are generating cash every quarter, have real income with a TTM P/E of 26 and a forward P/E of 12
and they are selling a leading product in a market that is growing at a huge rate.

 
 VALUATION MEASURES 
 Market Cap (intraday): 227.96M  
 Enterprise Value (31-Aug-04)³: 109.28M  
 Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 25.84  
 Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-05)¹: 11.88  
 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)¹: 0.73  
 Price/Sales (ttm): 2.35  
 Price/Book (mrq): 1.32  
 Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)³: 1.11  
 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)³: 12.75 
 . 
  
 Balance Sheet  
 Total Cash (mrq): 122.05M  
 Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 3.62  
 Total Debt (mrq)²: 0  
 Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 0  
 Current Ratio (mrq): 11.441  
 Book Value Per Share (mrq): 5.205 
 

Anything can happen, but I doubt they will go bankrupt with such proven management.

To discuss CACS more I suggest the iHub CACS board here http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1460
Or send me an email.

[Kirk]

Revised iBox Chart:


with variations:

[Kirk]

I updated that in a special email to my subscribers. Here is part of what I sent:

CACS Numbers as of 7/25/04:
Book Value = $5.097
Market Cap = $237.7M
Total Cash = $118.1M
Cash flow positive - generated about 12¢ a share last Q
Share Price = $7 less $3.75 cash = $3.25
LT Debt = $0
TTM PE = 42
2004 Earnings = $0.40, PE = $3.25 / $0.40 = 8.1
2005 Earnings = $0.60, PE = $3.25 / $0.60 = 5.4
2004 Year-over-year Revenue up over 100%
Market for main product expected to double in the next few years
Price/Sales = 2.5
Price/Sales with Cash removed from price = 1.5

Short term, anything can happen, but if they were not lying or hiding information during the conference call then the numbers above tell a different story than the recent price decline.

The markets are “murky” about the future of the economy and terrorism, so CACS seems to have discounted itself to the low end of the range I gave numbers for calculating here

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1615728

Zaphod used those numbers to show a fair market range of $8 to $16 here:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/replies.asp?msg=1615728

$8 was for no growth premium and $16 for a growth premium.
The range the past 6 months has been $7 to $18… pretty much as calculated 9 months ago!

[Heavenly]

Kirk,

What is your outlook for this company now?

Would you be a buyer at $7?

Thanks.

[Kirk]

Carrier Access loses 3 execs

Story: http://www.bouldernews.com/bdc/local_business/article/0,1713,BDC_2461_3049078,00 .html

Carrier Access loses 3 execs
Former vice presidents say they chose to leave

By Matt Branaugh, Camera Business Writer
July 20, 2004

The astronomical rise of Carrier Access Corp.'s stock was the talk of 2003.

But in 2004, three key executives have made quiet exits.

Monday, the Boulder-based telecommunications equipment provider, which releases second-quarter results today, confirmed the recent departures.

All three — Teddy Wyatt, the company's vice president of engineering, Mark Nixon, the company's vice president of marketing, and Russ Hawkins, the company's senior vice president of original equipment manufacturers and international sales — say they chose to leave on their own terms.

Nixon and Wyatt both declined to comment on their reasons. Nixon said he is pursuing a noncompeting telecom-related business in the Denver area.

Hawkins, who was president and chief executive of the 5-year-old Paragon Networks when it was acquired by Carrier Access for $20.6 million last year, said his plan always was to help integrate the businesses, then leave.

"I made it clear to the team at Carrier that I was intending on becoming the CEO of another company," said Hawkins, who now heads InfiniCon Systems in Pennsylvania. "There was no issue there."

Michelle Chase, Carrier Access' director of corporate communications, said the company is looking to fill the positions.

"With the life cycle of the company at this time, it's good timing for us to update our management team," she said.

The 238-employee business originally was founded in 1986 by current CEO Roger Koenig as Koenig Communications. Like most companies, Carrier Access emphasizes the significance of keeping key management, sales and engineering personnel in quarterly filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Carrier Access makes and sells broadband access equipment for communications service providers, helping those providers upgrade their network capacities and deliver voice and data communications more effectively. Major customers include T-Mobile USA Inc., XO Communications and Nortel Networks Inc.

It was hit hard in 2001 and 2002, when the competitive local exchange carriers brought on to challenge incumbent phone companies began to falter. In 2000, 62 percent of Carrier Access' sales came from CLECs, while only 5 percent came from wireless providers.

The company rebounded in 2003 after focusing on wireless providers. By first quarter of this year, CLECs chipped in 13 percent of Carrier Access' sales, while wireless customers contributed 68 percent.

Research and development investments, though, have lagged, even though the company says in its filings that it needs such investments to remain competitive. In 2003, Carrier Access spent $11 million on research and development, down substantially from $23.7 million in 2002 and $33.6 million in 2001.

"We continue to invest in research and development where it makes sense," Chase said.

In 2003, the company made $2.5 million on sales of $62.6 million, compared to a loss of $52.7 million on sales of $50.2 million the year prior.

Carrier Access' shares soared 3,200 percent during 2003, making it the country's best performer among stocks traded on the major exchanges with a market capitalization of $250 million or more.

Carrier Access (Nasdaq: CACS) closed Monday at $12.65 with a market cap of $426 million. Its stock's highest close during the past 52 weeks was $16.78 on Jan. 16. Earlier this year, the company raised $78.5 million in a secondary stock offering.

Contact Camera Business Writer Matt Branaugh at [phone] or branaugh

[Kirk]

The Flag breakout continues.

Today we broke the trend of lower highs as we now have a higher high at $14.64 as of now...



I wonder if we are getting a short squeeze as some might have sold or even shorted when the 50 crossed the 200 simple moving average.

Too bad they didn't think to use the Exponential moving average.... they both turned up last month signaling a potential trend change ahead....



This correction, although painful, has been great as it has allowed me to trade a bit to get more total shares AND take some cash out.

[Kirk]

CACS Bull Flag

.
I think this shows it well:



Note the declining volume then the volume spike on the breakout.

After selling some at $16, I last bought shares at $9.50 and yesterday took profits at $12.51 to lock in a nice gain on the $9.50 shares. Other buys since the sell at $16 are also in the green, but I just wanted to lock in the gain from the $9.50 buy so I can buy them back should we correct yet again (say if this bullish breakout fails. TA often fails....)

Flag, Pennant (Continuation)
http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/flagPennant.html
Flags and Pennants are short-term continuation patterns that mark a small consolidation before the previous move resumes. These patterns are usually preceded by a sharp advance or decline with heavy volume, and mark a mid-point of the move.

Disclosure: I am long this stock with a "break-even" of 87¢ in my personal account and well into 6 figures of profits at the current price. I may buy and sell this stock without mentioning it beforehand (or even afterwards) so don't base your own buying and selling on what I say here. The information contained here is not intended to constitute financial advice, and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security. This post is strictly informational and educational and is not to be construed as any kind of financial advice, investment advice or legal advice.

[Kirk]

CACS makes the list of 5 "Forbes Picks" using a stock screen based on Kimmel's parameters.

http://www.forbes.com/investmentguide/forbes/2004/0607/178_2.html

[Kirk]

Coverage initiated on Carrier Access by Kaufman Bros
Wed 8:40am - Briefing.com

26-May-04 Kaufman Bros Initiated Buy

Current Price $10.36

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=CACS

[Kirk]

Offering raised $78.5M and is completed.

The 10K released today says the offering was completed in Feb and raised $78.5M

($78.5M/$12.25 = 6.28M shares)
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/040330/cacs10-k.html

I don't recall reading anywhere that the offering was completed before today.

Other points I got from the 10K
->GMs might go up in 2004
->No income taxes will be paid in 2004 due to losses carried forward (good news for EPS)
->Working off more inventory
->Interest income from cash while they decide what to do with it.

I think this should be taken as good news. I'm interested in what else in the 10K seems material to others.

The stock seemed to shoot up and that alerted me to check to see if news of a completed offering was made... Sure enough!

[Kirk]

"What I can tell you now is that one of the three following brokers has increased their estimates nicely for all quarters in 2004. And they're increased 2005 estimates from about 60 cents to 93 cents. "

I just checked " S&P Consensus Report" dated 3/20/04 and I can confirm that the high estimate for 2005 is now $0.93.

The average estimate for '04 went up 20% last month from 50¢ to 60¢

In Dec 02 there was one analyst following CACS
In July '03 this increased to 2
In Dec '03 this increased to 4
Feb 04 shows 6
March 04 shows 7 analysts

The best news is only 1 of the 7 has it as a buy... when they all say to buy... we want to make it easy for them to find shares and sell them some. -snort!

[Kirk]

Cingular Selects Carrier Access for Wireless Backhaul Solution

Yabba Dabba Doooo!

Press Release Source: Carrier Access

Cingular Selects Carrier Access for Wireless Backhaul Solution
Friday March 19, 11:25 am ET

BOULDER, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 19, 2004--Carrier Access Corporation (Nasdaq:CACS - News) announced today that Cingular Wireless has expanded Carrier Access' contract for cell site backhaul solutions to support Cingular's network expansion.

In the multi-year contract, Cingular will deploy Carrier Access' MASTERseries(TM) Cell Site Access Gateway to meet its current requirements for efficient n x T1 cell site to mobile switch center transport, while simultaneously preparing its network for future packet-based transport and advanced protocol processing. Deployments are to begin immediately.

"We're proud to be working with Cingular Wireless, helping them to add functionality, significantly reduce capital and operating costs, and pave the way for their next generation backhaul network," said Reini Florin, VP-Wireless Sales, Carrier Access.

The Carrier Access MASTERseries Cell Site Access Gateway provides wireless service providers an unparalleled combination of scalability, multiservices protocol processing, and reliability. The platform has been deployed in mobile wireless networks in 25 different countries and is currently used by eight of the top 10 carriers in the U.S.

About Carrier Access Corporation

Carrier Access designs, manufactures, and sells next-generation broadband access communications equipment to wireless and wireline communications service providers. With our solutions, Carrier Access' customers are deploying new media-rich Internet services and converged personalized communications services, while lowering capital and operating costs. Our customers use our products to upgrade access capacity and implement the convergence of IP, voice, and data services. Carrier Access' product portfolio meets or exceeds the highest interoperability, reliability, and quality standards in the industry, including Telcordia(TM) OSMINE, NEBS Level-3, and ISO 9001.

We sell our products directly to communications service providers, and indirectly through a broad channel of global distributor and communications infrastructure OEM partners. Our customers include wireless service providers, local exchange carriers, multi-cable operators, and international communications providers. Carrier Access and the Carrier Access logo are registered trademarks of Carrier Access Corporation. MASTERseries are trademarks of Carrier Access Corporation. Any other trademark is the trademark of its respective owner.

For more information, visit www.carrieraccess.com.

Forward-Looking Statement Caution

Except for the historical information contained herein, the matters set forth in this press release are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the "safe harbor" provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially, including changing customer requirements, service provider future sales and timely deployment of Carrier Access products, projected savings on capital expenditures and operational savings achieved through deployment of the MASTERseries by service providers. For a discussion of additional factors that may cause results to differ, see Carrier Access' SEC reports. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date hereof. Carrier Access disclaims any intent or obligation to update these forward-looking statements.
Contact:

Carrier Access
Mark Nixon, 303-332-9085
[e-mail]


Source: Carrier Access

[Kirk]

11:26AM Carrier Access selected by Cingular for network expansion (CACS) 11.80 +0.57: Co announces that Cingular Wireless has expanded CACS's contract for cell site backhaul products to support Cingular's network expansion. In the multi-year contract, Cingular will deploy CACS's MASTERseries Cell Site Access Gateway to meet its current requirements for efficient nxT1 cell site to mobile switch center transport, while simultaneously preparing its network for future packet-based transport and advanced protocol processing. Deployments will begin immediately.

[Kirk]

CACS on a run
Potential iH&S forming
Potential ST Target $12.50


Using TA to buy at $9.50 reported here http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/81641/1969-1978#message_7
I missed the bottom by 26 cents...



As my subscribers know, I added back some shares at $9.50 after we got the early weakness. Then we got the hoped for strength (mentioned in that post for what to look for) and the stock has never looked back.

Cacs is currently at $11.24 so the buy at $9.50 is up $1.74 for an 18% gains from "acting immediately" only 6 days ago.



It sure looks like da blue line that was resitance in now once again support.

yabba dabba dooo!

[TREND1]

CACS had a very good move up.
Now how far down the retracement ?

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2005/index.html

[TREND1]

 
 RECOMMENDATION TRENDS  
   
          Current Month Last Month Two Months Three Months  
 Strong Buy      1           1        1         1  
 Buy             1           0        0         0  
 Hold            0           0        0         0  
 Sell            1           0        0         0  
 Strong Sell     0           0        0         0  
   
 

[Kirk]

KVHI just announced a larger offering... at a price well above CACS

KVHI vs CACS
Interesting comparison between the companies
Revenue per share... room to grow for CACS...
I don't think they have the forward PE correct for CACS since 2005 earnings are estimated to be 50¢
At $14, this is a mere PEG PE of 28 and a PEG of well under unity.

7:57AM KVH Industries prices 2.75 mln share offering at $18.75 (KVHI) 19.13:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=cacs+kvhi

CACS:
Market Cap (intraday): 358.83M
Enterprise Value (10-Feb-04)©ø: 312.13M
Trailing P/E (ttm): 157.05
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-05)¡ù: 0.00
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)¡ù: 2.60
Price/Sales (ttm): 5.57
Price/Book (mrq): 3.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)©ø: 4.99
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 62.56M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 2.404


KVHI
Market Cap (intraday): 230.62M
Enterprise Value (10-Feb-04)©ø: 215.76M
Trailing P/E (ttm): 487.56
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-04)¡ù: 0.00
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)¡ù: N/A
Price/Sales (ttm): 4.09
Price/Book (mrq): 8.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)©ø: 4.00
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 53.99M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 4.638

[Kirk]

CACS in Businessweek: "explosive growth" - reasonable valuation


FEBRUARY 10, 2004
Smaller Stocks, Bigger Gains

James Oberweis of Oberweis Securities looks for companies with "explosive growth" -- at least 30% -- and reasonable valuations

"The key is to find small companies with the potential to do better than any of the benchmark averages." That sums up the investment strategy of James Oberweis, president of Oberweis Securities, which manages micro-cap, mid-cap, and emerging-growth portfolios. Currently, he expects small caps to perform approximately in tandem with larger-cap stocks. He looks for companies with innovative products and services and growth of at least 30% -- plus reasonable valuations. And he finds an above-average concentration of such stocks in technology and health care.

One of Oberweis' choices in health care is HealthExtras (HLEX ), and a medical company he likes is Kensey Nash (KNSY ), which developed the Angio-Seal, used to seal punctures made during cardiovascular procedures. He has a variety of tech favorites, including Carrier Access (CACS ) in telecom switching and aQuantive (AQNT ) and Ask Jeeves (ASKJ ) in online marketing.

Full Article: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/43383/105-106

[Kirk]

We just had a retrace from $18 to 12.xx
What is a fib number for a retrace?

11.27 would be a 38.2% retrace from $0.38

My guess is a retrace would be measured from some other level...

Probably good support at $12.25 if that is where institutions feel it is worth buying millions of shares...

Longer term, higher.

Short term buy or sell I have in my newsletter before I post here for obvious reasons.

[dvdmogul]

Hey Kirk...just checking in to see what you think, Double top with volume today on transition to retrace 50% of the advance?

Or

Consolidation before handle of cup breaks up?

What say you champ?

Thats

[Zaphod]

Great numbers, poor stock movement!
The customer base tilted heavily toward wireless which made the other segments look weak in Q over Q percentages, and unambitious outlook seemed to have damped the future view. I would have liked to have heard more about new products, clearer statements on Paragon, and plans for the 100M coming in.

The outstanding share offering will keep this depressed for another month, I think, and it might take another quarter of above-consensus growth or other clear indication of continued expansion to take this up another level.

No way should the stock be DOWN on 47% growth without some angst being factored in.

Still, it's all good for the long-term investors.
Zap

[Kirk]

Revenue grew from $15.9M to $23.3M or 47% in a SINGLE QUARTER!

Carrier Access Reports Fourth Quarter and 2003 Year End Financial Results

BOULDER, COLORADO - January 20, 2004 - Carrier Access Corporation (Nasdaq:CACS - News), a manufacturer of broadband communications equipment, today reported results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2003.

Revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2003 was $23.3 million compared with $15.9 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2003 and $11.5 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2002. Net income for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2003 was $1.5 million or $0.05 per diluted share compared with net income for the third quarter of fiscal 2003 of $702,000 or $0.03 per diluted share and a net loss of $8.0 million or $0.32 per diluted share for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2002.

Revenue for the year 2003 was $62.6 million compared with $50.2 million for the year of 2002. Net income for the year of 2003 was $2.5 million or $0.09 per diluted share, compared with a net loss for the year of 2002 of $52.7 million or $2.13 per diluted share.

"The fourth quarter was an excellent quarter for Carrier Access as we recorded our fourth consecutive quarter of revenue and net income growth," said Roger Koenig, President and CEO of Carrier Access. "Our fourth quarter results showed a 46% gain in revenue to $23.3 million over $15.9 reported in the third quarter. This revenue increase was primarily driven by our wireless customer deployments."

"We believe that 2003 was a successful year for Carrier Access. At the beginning of the year our focus was to increase revenues and return to profitability during the year. Our approach for achieving this goal was to diversify our customer base, focus our sales and marketing efforts on wireless and other new markets, and introduce new products, while controlling our expenses. We believe that our 2003 results clearly demonstrate that we achieved this goal -- as we ended the year profitably with revenue growth of 24.5% over 2002."

Carrier Access will hold a conference call today at 9:15 a.m. EDT to review these results. The call is open to the public. Those who wish to participate should dial 630-395-0026, domestically or internationally, at least fifteen minutes prior to the scheduled start time for the call and reference Carrier Access.

Carrier Access has also scheduled this event to be broadcast live via web cast and replayed for the remainder of 2004. To access this web cast please go to the Investor Relations page at www.carrieraccess.com/investors, or www.companyboardroom.com.

Forward-Looking Statement Caution

This press release contains forward-looking statements regarding new customer initiatives and the ability to attain revenue with these new customer initiatives, as well as our growth prospects and market share gains in broadband access and service creation and our ability to control expenses. Our results of operations for the year ended 2003 are not necessarily indicative of the results that may be expected for any future period. We caution that actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors including, but not limited to, continuing uncertainty regarding general economic conditions, changes in capital spending by carriers and telecommunications companies, market acceptance of our products, problems with or at our customers, distributors and/or suppliers, growth rates within our industry, the financial stability of our customers, the introduction of new com petition and technologies, and other risks and uncertainties including those factors discussed in the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2002 and other documents periodically filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

About Carrier Access Corporation

Carrier Access designs, manufactures and sells broadband access equipment to communications service providers. Our products are used to upgrade capacity of wireline and wireless communications networks. Our products also enable our customers to offer voice and data services, which historically have been offered on separate networks, on a single, converged network. We design our products to enable our customers to deploy new revenue-generating voice and data services, while lowering capital and operating costs. For more information visit www.carrieraccess.com.

 
                       CARRIER ACCESS CORPORATION 
            CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS 
                (In thousands, except per share amounts) 
                              (Unaudited) 
  
  
  
                                   Three Months Ended     Year Ended 
                                      December 31,       December 31, 
                                     2003       2002    2003    2002 
                                   ---------- ------- -------- -------- 
  
 Net revenue                         $23,270  $11,461 $62,556  $50,247 
 Cost of goods sold                   13,214    7,294  35,224   33,145 
                                   ---------- ------- -------- -------- 
  
 Gross profit                         10,056    4,167  27,332   17,102 
                                   ---------- ------- -------- -------- 
  
 Operating expenses: 
    Research and development           3,309    3,629  10,948   23,536 
    Sales and marketing                3,593    4,074  11,776   18,254 
    General and administrative         1,572    1,810   5,415    9,831 
    Bad debt expense (recoveries)       (104)      28  (3,085)   5,557 
 Restructuring charge                     --    1,981      --    1,981 
    Asset impairment charge               --      800      --    9,795 
    Other intangible amortization        262       --     262      216 
    Amortization of deferred stock 
     compensation                         --       30      --      199 
                                   ---------- ------- -------- -------- 
  
 Total operating expenses              8,632   12,352  25,316   69,369 
                                   ---------- ------- -------- -------- 
  
 Income (loss) from operations         1,424   (8,185)  2,016  (52,267) 
  
 Other income, net                        95      121     353      714 
                                   ---------- ------- -------- -------- 
  
 Income (loss) before income taxes     1,519   (8,064)  2,369  (51,553) 
  
 Income tax expense (benefit)             --      (41)    (89)   1,102 
                                   ---------- ------- -------- -------- 
  
 Net income (loss)                    $1,519  $(8,023) $2,458 $(52,655) 
                                   ========== ======= ======== ======== 
  
 Income (loss) per share - basic       $0.06   $(0.32)  $0.10   $(2.13) 
 Income (loss) per share - diluted     $0.05   $(0.32)  $0.09   $(2.13) 
 Weighted average common shares: 
  Basic                               25,206   24,771  24,815   24,754 
  Diluted                             27,710   24,771  26,545   24,754 
  
  
  
                                 CARRIER ACCESS CORPORATION 
                           CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS 
                                       (In thousands) 
                                        (Unaudited) 
  
  
                                              December 31, December 31, 
 ASSETS                                           2003         2002 
                                              ------------ ------------ 
 Current assets: 
  Cash, cash equivalents and marketable 
   securities                                     $36,542      $25,728 
  Accounts receivable, net                         18,333        8,598 
  Inventory, net                                   26,135       24,134 
  Other current assets                              4,709        8,187 
                                              ------------ ------------ 
  Total current assets                             85,719       66,647 
  
 Long-lived assets, net                            21,823        9,790 
                                              ------------ ------------ 
  Total assets                                   $107,542      $76,437 
                                              ============ ============ 
  
 LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY 
 Total current liabilities                        $18,148      $10,323 
  
 Stockholders' equity                              89,394       66,114 
                                              ------------ ------------ 
  
   Total liabilities and stockholders' equity    $107,542      $76,437 
                                              ============ ============ 
 

[Zaphod]

Just might make $18 today
If the forward comments are strong.
Zap

[Zaphod]

Looking at IAD deployments
I happened to note, while reviewing XO's Q3 financials, that they split out integrated voice and data revenue versus voice services and data services.

While only a fraction of their revenue, IAD deployments are growing in percentage, and are also the only segment showing year-over-year growth.

If this trend is true elsewhere CACS should be seeing decent growth in the traditional markets.
Zap

[Kirk]

RE: "Oct 21 and 22 we agreed the stock was easily worth $16, and I hoped for $10 by New Years."

Yes, I remember that well. I calculated fair market value without a premium for growth to be $8 to $16. I tihnk it was going from $4 to $6 at that time.

I've been playing the swings a bit with a fraction of my shares in the newsletter and my personal account.

For the newsletter:

Out at $14.25
in at $11.50
Out at $16.00

I have the "break-even" point for the newsletter now down to 21 cents due to some of this trading!

I'm hoping my taking profits here is what it takes to push it to fill the gap to $20... so the much larger long position goes up! :)

I've found it is so much easier to trade from the long side when you are well ahead. -snort

I agree on your targets which is why I still have a considerable long position. :)

[Zaphod]

Oct 21 and 22 we agreed the stock was easily worth $16, and I hoped for $10 by New Years.

Well, New Years was $13, so we *MUST* have either been conservative in our estimates, or just plain wrong. Assuming better-than-estimated growth, and decent margins, we get to slide the chart left a bit, and 20% growth means a double every 3 quarters or so.

Even with only 10%-15% growth I'd expect $30 in 2004. With acquisitions, or better growth, better still. Unless the economy tanks any drop is still a buying opportunity.
JMHO
Zap

[Zaphod]

OK. Where can I find data?

I have my first thoughts in order, but I lack historical revenue data. Where did 60, 80, 100M run-rates match the curve?

In '99 CACS went from <20 to >60 in less than one year, following a trend line EXACTLY like the recent climb.

To do that again, we need to see something like a 100M run rate with prospects for 250M.

P/B will be fine, with 100M new cash.
P/E will be a function of growth and product mix. With revenue up, this will get better, but prod dev'p will grow, too, which means slows profit growth.
P/S is the issue. 20% growth is possible, but unlikely without new markets or products. CACS needs RBOCs, int'l, VoIP, and wireless to hit the next home run.

My bet is acquisitions and other outside growth will be needed. If so, CACS will certainly try to do so. Will they succeed?
Zap

[Zaphod]

It's pretty obvious where this going.

It has now hit the $16 mark we projected just a few months ago. Didn't we say January?

I see no way to miss $18-20 next week, except for those pesky 6M new shares hanging out. What is your best bet on the affect when they price? Will there be an earnings run-up, release pop-and drop, and then a further drop on share pricing, followed by a month-long recovery?

To see what 2004 holds, let's look back at '99, and see what CACS did as it became a $100M revenue company.
Zap

[Kirk]

2001 Gap Chart up close

>

[Kirk]

2001 Gap Chart up close

&pref=G>

[Kirk]

Chart of Gap


It looks like we are now filing the gap...

what next? :)

[Zaphod]

Diversification always makes sense.
My cost basis is about $3.00. I've sold some as it rose, as it became an uncomfortably large fraction of my small portfolio. I'll probably sell more after earnings this Q, for the same reason.

Do you own any TRPH? I like sticking to tech stocks, as I understand the products and the markets best, and this one looks superb to me. It's one of a handful that have experienced growth as strong as CACS, and has a reasonable balance sheet as well. Do you see any reason NOT to invest?

I'm toying with RMBS as well. It's not done as well historically, but with recent legal rulings in their favor coupled with PC design wins, I think it may be a strong bet for the next generation of clones (which in my book is only six months or so). I think it'll be good for an easy double.

Zap

[Kirk]

RE:
"Don't you wonder
Why do Roger and Nancy keep selling stock, and why is CACS putting out 6M new shares?"

Not at all. If they were paying me for advice, I'd have told them to pull money out as soon as it got above 2x book value...

If you add all the shares they've sold since the peak, I think I've sold a much larger percentage of my total than they have of theirs and I still have 86.5% of my shares and a very low cost basis. My break-even for CACS is now 56.5 cents!

[Zaphod]

Don't you wonder
Why do Roger and Nancy keep selling stock, and why is CACS putting out 6M new shares?

Could it be the same reason for both, that the last downturn caught them without a rainy day fund, and before the next one hits they want to have a war chest to buy up companies on the cheap when good ones stumble?

Sure, they enjoy investing, and I'm sure more acquisitions, ventures, and side investments will be made, but I bet some of the cash will sit in safe and liquid safe-holds.

No pre-announcement yet, though they must want to close the shares as soon as they can. Without that in the way, we'd be passing 17 and heading to 20 by know. I bet we still see more upside motion before earnings, though.
Zap

[Kirk]

It looks like CACS is trying to make a new high...





Nice little break-out here from an ascending triangle.

[Zaphod]

Last hope for shorts is gone!

The news is obvious: the quarter must be good. No warning, and strong growth for the past couple days to fill the trough from last month. Check out ADTN and their upside announcement. I bet CACS will do at least as well, but just doesn't announce upsides.

The only nagging question is the pricing for the 6M shares. Without that hanging in the wind, CACS would be setting new highs this week. It might anyway, depending on how well the market thinks CACS can spend 100M.

Did you see the want ads at CACS?

Zap

[Kirk]

Shorts have one last hope

They hope that longs didn't sell last year inorder to delay the short term capital gain tax into 2004.

If CACS doesn't crash with winners cashing in their gains in the next few days, the shorts may soil their shorts as it would mean us long are holding for much higher gains.

Did you know CACS was the biggest gainer on the NASDAQ for 2003 with a gain of 3200%?!!!

Go CACS!

We should take a poll to see what folks think CACS will finish 2004 at.

[Zaphod]

We're to the slow days of the quarter,
and there seems to be more uncertainty than usual.

Will CACS make the quarter?
Will it be a blow-out?
How much will Paragon contribute in revenue? In productivity? In costs?
Will the Paragon products blossom with the CACS sales force? Or will they die from neglect?
Will CACS guide up, flat, or down?
Will the 6 million shares sell? What will be the price? When will the sale occur?
What are new products and plans?
How is the competitive space?

I believe the market abhors uncertainty, which explains the recent drop. A good quarter will erase the drop. A great report will push us to 18-20.
Zap

[dvdmogul]

Yes of course, still in still loving it.

Guess....I'll take whatever is left in her but I've already decided to set a Post Split target for CACS shares. This is a liquidity play as much as anything else, so I will just ride tell they multiply the stock. Then reassess based on fundamentals.

[Kirk]

Another nice day today.
Are you still in?
Care to make a prediction where it will run out of gas?
My head is still spinning as is my account balance!

[Zaphod]

Three questions:

How much was paid, in total, for Paragon?
What will the $100 million be spent on? Management would not have issued the stock if they did not have their eyes on something.
What will Roger and Nancy hold after these moves? Will they be less than 50% for the first time?

The strategy appears to be much more aggressive than ever before. Roger and Nancy must be trying to make up for lost time, and widening the gap for the next round of bull-market me-too start-ups to try to bridge, after watching the last round suffer and die.

I think this approach has more risk, and the chance of failure is perhaps greater, but the opportunity for upside and potential speed of success will be greater, too.

As for the ignorant Yahoo's who think management is pulling a fast one to line their pockets, nothing could be less true. Roger and Nancy have no interest in pocketing $100M. They've had that before. They're looking for at least another zero, and will work tirelessly to achieve that. They do not have to be nice or fair, but they will be legal, and we will all benefit from their purpose and drive.
Zap

[Kirk]

Public Offering of 6,000,000 Shares of Common Stock

"Carrier Access (CACS: news, chart, profile), which makes equipment to boost telecom network performance, said late Friday that it filed to offer 6 million shares of stock with an overallotment provision for 900,000 additional shares. That would increase its shares outstanding by about one-fourth from the present 24.8 million."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&gui...

Press Release Source: Carrier Access Corporation


Carrier Access Corporation Announces Proposed Public Offering of 6,000,000 Shares of Common Stock
Friday November 14, 7:08 pm ET


BOULDER, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 14, 2003--Carrier Access Corporation (Nasdaq: CACS - News) today announced that it has filed a registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a proposed public offering of 6,000,000 shares of common stock.
Credit Suisse First Boston LLC, Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. and Needham & Company, Inc. will be the managing underwriters of the offering. Credit Suisse First Boston LLC will serve as the sole book runner. The underwriters have an option to purchase up to 900,000 additional shares of common stock from the company solely to cover over-allotments, if any.

Carrier Access designs, manufactures and sells next-generation broadband access equipment to wireline and wireless communications service providers.

A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold nor may offers to buy be accepted prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sales of these securities in any state in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities law of any such state.

Copies of the preliminary prospectus relating to the offering are not yet available; when available they may be obtained from the offices of Credit Suisse First Boston Corporation Prospectus Department, 11 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10010, telephone [phone].

 
 -------------------------------------------------------- 
 Contact:  
      Carrier Access Corporation 
      Jane Salance, 303-442-5455 
      Fax: [phone] 
      [e-mail] 
      www.carrieraccess.com 
  
 ------------------------------------------------------- 
 

Source: Carrier Access Corporation
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031114/145658_1.html