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A comprehensive Website awaits:

http://www.archcoal.com/

About Arch Coal

As one of the nation's largest and most efficient coal producers, we contribute roughly 12% of America's coal supply. We have a leading position in all three major low-sulfur coal basins, with mining complexes in Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Virginia.

We're proud stewards of safety and the environment, and have amassed dozens of national and state awards for excellence. We're also a recognized leader in technology and innovation with
Business Week's Web Smart 50, CIO 100 and InformationWeek 500.

Investments in research and development of clean coal and coal conversion technologies, such as coal to diesel fuel and coal to natural gas, are helping pave the way for greater independence in
our energy future...   More


The Power of 3

An intersection of life. The essence of people, planet and power - with a need to strike a balance between the three. At Arch Coal, we have always balanced our strategy on three key pillars: safety, environmental stewardship and financial performance. Excelling in each of these core values will chart our course and guide our success in the years ahead. Click the pics below:

 
 
 
 
   

 

 

This company pays dividends - click the link >>>     >      >      >  >>>http://investor.archcoal.com/dividend.cfm

Daily View

         

Weekly View

 


Electricity and Coal

by Sol Palha, Tactical Investor | February 6, 2009

Print

Billion Kilowatt hours

Country

1980

1990

1995

2000

2003

2005

2006

Bermuda

0.29

0.43

0.46

0.55

0.58

0.61

0.62

Canada

309.6

433.63

466.38

504.48

528.13

541.25

529.95

Greenland

0.14

0.19

0.23

0.26

0.27

0.28

0.28

Mexico

56.66

100.22

122.05

167.25

171.76

189.98

195.91

United States

2,094.45

2,837.08

3,163.96

3,592.36

3,662.03

3,810.98

3,816.85

North America

2,461.15

3,371.59

3,753.11

4,264.95

4,362.82

4,543.15

4,543.66

France

236.75

324.44

369.02

411.93

437.3

451.81

447.27

Germany

- -

- -

483.48

505.04

532.5

545.76

549.06

Turkey

21.84

47.84

68.39

98.57

110.43

129.01

141.46

Russia

- -

- -

714.23

717.29

745.18

779.44

819.59

South Africa

85.52

144.71

161.69

180.73

199.85

211.19

201.88

China

261.49

549.34

876.43

1,177.89

1,678.77

2,195.10

2,528.95

India

97.9

219.88

318.28

375.39

428.18

483.29

517.21

Japan

523.72

776.49

896.62

946.3

936.6

979.82

982.46

Source www.eia.doe.gov

The US has been generating over 49% of its electricity from coal for decades now and despite all the noise, we do not think this figure is going to change substantially soon.  From 1980 to 2006, US electricity consumption has increased by 89%, which means that coal consumption increased by a similar magnitude, for the percentage of electricity generated from coal has remained somewhat steady throughout the years.  The idea that solar, wind and other sources can immediately replace coal is a fallacy; it would take years for us to replace coal plants with a mixture of nuclear, solar and wind power plants.  This would not address future demand and so bottom line, while coal is dirty, it is here to stay for years to come. 

The two main players now are China and India; china now consumes more coal now than any other country in the world; to put this in perspective, China now consumes more coal than US and the Entire European union combined. Last year China consumed 2.62 billion tons, an increase of over 160% from 2000, when it consumed only 1 billion tons.   By 2010, it is estimated that China will use approximately 3 billion tons; currently, China alone consumes roughly 1/3 of the worlds total coal output.  Roughly, 70% of China’s electricity is generated from Coal (1.93 trillion kilowatts), and it is still constructing roughly one new coal power plant a week.  Even Though China has embarked on one of the most aggressive nuclear power plants building sprees ever, when all these plants are built, they will barely supply 5% of Chinas total electricity needs. Thus it’s fairly easy to assume that coal will remain a major driving force of the Chinese economy for decades to come. 

India is the 6th largest generator of electricity in the world, and it’s also ranked as the 6th largest consumer worldwide.  Over the past decade consumption has increased by over 64% and its projected increase in electricity consumption of 8-10% annually is one of the highest in the world.  As with China and the United States, coal provides a major portion of India’s electricity; currently, 69% of India’s electricity is generated from coal.

In 1996 India consumed 295 million tons of coal; by 2005 the figure had jumped to over 465 million tons. From 2000 to 2005 India’s coal usage increased by 5.5% a year; if we use the same projection, then in 2006 it consumed 490 million tons, in 2007 it consumed 516 million tons, in 2008 it consumed 544 million tons and by 2011 it will be consuming roughly 637 million tons; this off course is based on the assumption that consumption will continue to increase at a pace of 5.5% per annum and not spiral upwards.

The EIA Projects that India and China will account for 34% of the world’s total increase in energy consumption worldwide and 85% of the world’s total projected increase in coal usage between 1995 and 2020.  China and India have increased their power output by 1000% and 500% respectively since 1980 and at the rate China is going; it will eventually surpass the United States. The only way it’s going to be able to increase its output in a significant way it’s to embrace every single source of energy out there and that includes coal.

These two countries are already operating well below optimal capacity; in fact, rolling black outs are the norm in both these countries and thus the question does not fall into the” if” category but the must category when it comes to the construction of new power plants. No matter how aggressively they build new nuclear, solar, or hydroelectric plants, they will still need to continue building coal fired plants in order to meet demand, which continues to increase at a record pace.

Hence even if by some miracle the U.S. could implement some plan in record time that would cut down the need for new coal plants, it would in no way affect long term prices because most of the world’s electricity is still derived from coal. 

There are several ways to play this sector, some more rewarding than the others, but the simplest way if you are bullish, would be to purchase shares in KOL, the coal ETF. As market conditions are currently far from normal, individuals should refrain from taking huge bites, but instead deploy their money in bits and pieces. Finally, one needs to take the long term view, for the short term ride is bound to be volatile.

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Copyright © 2009 Sol Palha
Bio and Archive

contact information

Sol Palha | Tactical Investor | 38-11 Ditmars Blvd. Astoria, NY, 11105 | Email | Website



   
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PostSubject
#1303   Waiting for the exit VivaLasVegas 09/23/16 11:17:13 AM
#1302   Open call options example LouisDesyjr 09/23/16 10:40:30 AM
#1301   Open call options LouisDesyjr 09/23/16 10:32:45 AM
#1300   your rite but someone is short tens of buylow2 09/23/16 09:38:04 AM
#1299   Can't buy options when in bankruptcy unless to LouisDesyjr 09/23/16 09:17:02 AM
#1298   Massive opportunity? VivaLasVegas 09/22/16 11:21:55 PM
#1297   If you read the bankruptcy agreement stockholders are Jerrywest 09/22/16 01:18:29 PM
#1296   Tons of open interest in Jan 2017 and buylow2 09/22/16 08:20:50 AM
#1295   Sure doesn't look like common is going to zero buylow2 09/21/16 08:20:23 PM
#1294   Im selling mine tomorrow......... br4nd1e 09/21/16 07:11:17 PM
#1293   Appeal of plan? Not likely LouisDesyjr 09/21/16 02:01:22 PM
#1292   is it possible some shareholders are appealing the buylow2 09/21/16 11:35:25 AM
#1291   Arch Coal Restructuring Plan Wins Court Approval -- Update Lowhndcpr 09/21/16 10:36:15 AM
#1290   Current shareholders will be wiped out under the Lowhndcpr 09/21/16 10:34:20 AM
#1289   wonder if shares will be worth something long term buylow2 09/21/16 10:01:26 AM
#1288   All the hallmarks of a strong move up Lone Wolf 09/21/16 09:46:44 AM
#1287   remember american airlines went from pennies to 50 buylow2 09/21/16 09:32:27 AM
#1286   It IS unbelievable LouisDesyjr 09/20/16 02:49:04 PM
#1285   thx dude, keep us posted buylow2 09/20/16 02:42:21 PM
#1284   What may be going on LouisDesyjr 09/20/16 02:32:35 PM
#1283   damm wish i would of bought the other buylow2 09/20/16 02:20:04 PM
#1282   so if long sell before it goes to buylow2 09/15/16 09:41:00 AM
#1281   Excerpt from this mornings 8-K "Arch Coal currently has OTC Mutha 09/15/16 07:07:34 AM
#1280   Shares are going to be wiped out/going to zero LouisDesyjr 09/14/16 12:57:00 PM
#1279   so shares go to zero in your opinion? buylow2 09/14/16 12:51:52 PM
#1278   Material announcement - Plan confirmed by court LouisDesyjr 09/14/16 09:07:23 AM
#1277   when anything material is announced, then it will stocktrademan 09/07/16 04:33:21 PM
#1276   Beware..... And read docket 1101 at prime clerk. OTC Mutha 09/06/16 05:06:53 PM
#1275   ACIIQ bullish 0.32 stocktrademan 09/02/16 04:20:53 PM
#1274   Word is going to zero markp1950 08/18/16 03:15:40 PM
#1273   wonder if coal assets will be worth more markp1950 08/18/16 03:14:11 PM
#1272   Word is going to zero Jerrywest 08/10/16 11:14:59 PM
#1271   any chance going to a buck? buylow2 07/26/16 12:51:45 PM
#1270   ACIIQ bullish 0.43 stocktrademan 07/22/16 11:58:54 AM
#1269   uptrending continuing Chance 07/21/16 05:34:40 AM
#1268   wonder if coal assets will be worth more buylow2 07/20/16 09:32:50 AM
#1267   very interesting, can we run to a buck buylow2 07/14/16 09:27:38 AM
#1266   Looks like sseiq. Is gonna run. It be toad511 07/14/16 09:09:02 AM
#1265   Nice! Bidding up. Hmmmm?!? Lone Wolf 07/14/16 09:01:42 AM
#1264   Took a nibble of this and anrzq. Today. toad511 07/13/16 05:19:33 PM
#1263   Very interesting to say the least. Lone Wolf 07/13/16 12:34:05 PM
#1262   wow whats going on, are assets worth something buylow2 07/13/16 10:19:05 AM
#1261   Wouldn't say 'following'...but as far as today goes Lone Wolf 07/13/16 09:47:34 AM
#1260   Is there anyone still following ACIIQ? Called investor relations Travel5 05/06/16 12:17:27 AM
#1259   Nothing say about ACIIQ? MerthyrQ 05/04/16 02:11:00 PM
#1258   Case in point about trading stock of a MerthyrQ 03/30/16 12:48:31 PM
#1257   Why trading for $0.30? LouisDesyjr 03/29/16 08:05:02 PM
#1256   If stock is going to be canceled, why sambeaux 03/29/16 06:22:59 PM
#1255   Yes, this was a great trade. But, board md3423 02/15/16 11:02:04 AM
#1254   Arch Coal says the common shares will be cancelled LouisDesyjr 02/15/16 10:58:22 AM
PostSubject