Citi analyst John Godyn said in a note that the U.S. airline sector is entering what the firm calls a “Supermajors Super-Cycle,” forecasting that 2026 will usher in a prolonged mid-cycle period in which the largest network carriers outperform the rest of the industry.

Godyn wrote that the current setup is “positive for an elongated mid-cycle beginning in 2026,” and noted that even though all carriers appear poised for a recovery, “the biggest beneficiaries through the cycle are likely to be the supermajors.”

Citi categorizes American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL), Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), and United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) as supermajors—airlines that, the firm says, “have successfully wrapped a new style of travel business model around a unique set of assets that no existing competitor or new entrant can easily recreate.”

Those assets include “dominant positions in hubs that are slot constrained,” wide-reaching international networks supported by strong alliance partnerships, and “top-tier loyalty plans” that produce dependable, high-margin revenue.

Citi argues that the industry’s weakness in 2025 has set the stage for a strong rebound. Among the supporting factors, Godyn listed: “Discretionary capacity cuts into year-end 2025 and early 2026 are significant,” ongoing bankruptcies are reducing supply even further, demand is currently depressed and likely to rebound, and corporate travel—a high-margin segment—is expected to recover meaningfully.

The bank also expects revenue metrics to improve next year, saying that “RASM is likely to inflect in 1H26.”

Drawing on historical patterns, Citi believes the U.S. airline sector is emerging from a “Post-Recovery Reset,” a stage that has often preceded periods of consolidation and capacity discipline. Similar conditions helped create the “Stronger For Longer” upcycle from 2012 to 2016, during which industry margins reached record highs.

Citi concludes that the advantages of the supermajors—including scale, broad network reach, and a premium revenue mix—position them for “more durable and persistent” outperformance than investors currently anticipate.

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