ASPN is a well-run company, no doubt, and I am rather long the stock, which is why I watch it more closely than some others. I particularly like the fact that they are cash rich and fund new drilling from their substantial positive cash flow. However, I remain watchful to see how they are able to expand their reach and add to reserves ... or not ... and I do appreciate their occasional updates on operations.
I'm certainly not accusing Mr. Cohan of being a crook at all, but insider selling is about the only advance indication we may have that growth will be topping out and reserves are not expanding as much as hoped. The latest qtrly report did not show a large growth in reserves (only about 15% or so, I believe).
The greatest determinants of ASPN stock price a year from now will be EPS, natural gas prices, production growth yr/yr, reserves growth yr/yr, and depletion rate. The greatest determinant of ASPN six months from now may be EPS, status of the new oil well and spring-summer gas wells, and depletion rate. One thing that continues to concern me is the depletion rate, as I believe their gas wells are not particularly long-lived.
BTW, I thought he did a great job in the recent interview explaining how ASPN does business.
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